West Texas Oilלונג
WTI/OIL Bullish Signal triggered
מעודכן
7 days ago my bullish signal for oil triggered and I am now long.Now many new facts are being released that are align with my signals.
I have collected some very important and interpreted them.This will help you also t understand the backrounds. The bullish trend is currently at its weak phase where many false signals are ofcourse potentially possible.
In this phase of the trend I focuse just on risk management(tightenning stops,to breakeven etc.
But also increasing my positions in this phase and sizing them up are also possible.
Later in strong phase of the trend Iwont increase my positions, but I let the profits run.
I marked also Taking profits level for some of you who might are taking profits.
Generally I let the profits run and just cut the losses if necessary.
Important levels I marked in the chart.
Here Important catalysts why I believe Oil will climb up:
1
India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion. India’s state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum (NSE:BPCL) announced its plans to invest $11 billion in a new refinery in southern Andhra Pradesh state, adding 180,000 b/d of capacity and an integrated petrochemical plant to meet domestic demand.
France Launches First Reactor of 21st Century. 12 years overdue and four times the originally planned budget with a price tag of €13 billion, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor was finally connected to France’s power grid this week, marking the first addition of new nuclear capacity since Civaux-2 in 1999.
👉 Interpretation
France Launches First Reactor of the 21st Century
Key Details:
Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor, costing €13 billion and delayed by 12 years, is now operational.
First new nuclear capacity addition in France since 1999.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels: As nuclear energy replaces some fossil fuel-generated electricity, demand for oil (particularly fuel oil used for power generation in some regions) could decline slightly in Europe over the long term. However, this effect is minor since most oil demand comes from transportation rather than power generation.
Transition Signals: The operational reactor signals Europe's commitment to energy transition, which may influence long-term sentiment about reduced reliance on fossil fuels.
Neutral Short-Term Impact: Since the reactor serves a domestic market and does not affect global oil supply or demand immediately, the impact on oil prices is negligible in the short term.
India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion
Key Details:
Bharat Petroleum plans a $11 billion investment in a new refinery with a capacity of 180,000 b/d and an integrated petrochemical plant.
Focus is on meeting India’s growing domestic energy demand.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Increased Crude Demand: A new refinery requires crude oil as a feedstock, adding to global oil demand. Once operational, this expansion will support bullish trends in oil prices, especially as India becomes a larger importer of crude.
Focus on Domestic Market: The refinery aims to meet rising domestic consumption, particularly for transportation fuels and petrochemicals, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a driver of oil demand.
Positive Long-Term Outlook: While the refinery won't impact prices immediately, it highlights the bullish long-term demand trajectory for oil in emerging markets like India.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
India’s refinery expansion indicates long-term growth in oil demand, supporting bullish sentiment.
Emerging markets continue to drive global oil demand, balancing out declines in demand from developed regions.
Neutral or Bearish Factors:
France's new nuclear reactor reflects progress in the energy transition, potentially reducing oil demand in Europe. However, the short-term impact is negligible.
Conclusion
India's refinery expansion supports a bullish outlook for oil prices, complementing bullish signal. While France’s nuclear reactor signals a step toward alternative energy, its impact on global oil demand is minimal and overshadowed by growing energy needs in emerging markets like India. Overall, the developments reinforce a stable to slightly bullish environment for oil prices.
2
Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria. The Turkish government is readying to start negotiations with the new al-Julani government of Syria to delineate maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, a move that would allow Ankara to ‘increase its area of influence’ in energy exploration.
US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout. The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan to Guyana for the construction of a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant that would use ExxonMobil’s associated gas production from the Stabroek block, staving off intense Chinese competition.
👉 Interpretation of this news
Here's an analysis of how these developments might influence the oil market Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria
Key Details:
Turkey plans to negotiate maritime boundaries with the new Syrian government led by al-Julani.
The goal is to expand Turkey’s influence in Mediterranean energy exploration.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Energy Exploration Opportunities: If Turkey successfully delineates maritime boundaries, it could lead to new oil and gas exploration activities in the Mediterranean. This would increase the long-term potential for energy supply, but the impact on oil prices would be delayed and dependent on successful discoveries.
Geopolitical Risk Premium: Tensions surrounding maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean have previously caused geopolitical disputes (e.g., with Greece and Cyprus). The potential for disputes with other nations in the region could add a slight risk premium to oil prices.
No Immediate Impact: Since this development involves negotiations and potential future exploration, it does not have an immediate impact on oil supply or demand.
US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout
Key Details:
The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan for a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Guyana.
The plant will utilize ExxonMobil's associated gas from the Stabroek block, reducing flaring and tapping into a previously unused energy source.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Gas as an Alternative to Oil: Increased natural gas production in Guyana could slightly offset demand for oil in power generation over the long term. However, this is unlikely to significantly impact crude oil demand globally.
US vs. China Competition: The US financing reinforces its influence in Guyana, securing a foothold in the resource-rich region. This limits China's involvement but doesn't directly impact oil prices.
Neutral Impact on Crude Oil: Since this involves natural gas and not oil, the direct impact on crude prices is limited. However, the increased utilization of gas could eventually reduce the flare gas associated with oil production, slightly improving efficiency in Guyana's oil operations.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
Potential geopolitical disputes from Turkey’s maritime moves could introduce a risk premium into oil prices.
Long-term developments in Guyana's energy infrastructure reinforce stable energy supply, indirectly supporting efficient oil production.
Neutral or Limited Impact:
Both developments are longer-term in nature, with no immediate effect on crude oil supply or demand. The news leans more towards a neutral to slightly bullish influence on oil prices. Turkey’s maritime delimitation talks could introduce some geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean, which may support a minor risk premium. However, neither of these developments directly counters or strongly amplifies your bullish oil signal, which remains supported by other recent market-moving news (e.g., Suez disruptions, Shell refinery shutdown).
3
Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) shut down one of its oil processing units at the 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore after the nation’s Port Authority reported a leak of oil products together with the cooling water discharge.
Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal. The government of Mongolia has retracted the announcement of reaching a $1.6 billion deal with France’s uranium mining giant Orano, marking another odd roadblock on the way towards launching the Zuuvch Ovoo mine, in development since 2013.
👉I nterpretation of this oil trading news:
Here’s how these developments could impact the oil market and your bullish signal on oil prices:
Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak
Key Details:
Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at the Pulau Bukom refinery (237,000 barrels per day capacity).
The shutdown was caused by a leak reported alongside cooling water discharge.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Tightened Refining Capacity: With one of Asia’s major refining facilities partially offline, there will be reduced supply of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the region. This could support higher refined product prices, indirectly boosting crude oil demand as refineries aim to maintain supply levels.
Short-Term Supply Disruption: Depending on the duration of the shutdown, the disruption could lead to localized supply shortages and increased imports to meet demand, which is bullish for oil prices.
Environmental and Regulatory Fallout: If the shutdown is prolonged due to environmental regulations or extensive repairs, the market could factor in sustained supply tightness.
2. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal
Key Details:
Mongolia has retracted its announcement of a $1.6 billion deal with France’s Orano for developing the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium mine.
The project, in development since 2013, faces yet another delay.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Energy Diversification Delays: Delays in uranium mining projects hinder the global transition to nuclear energy, which is seen as a long-term competitor to oil and gas. This keeps oil demand relatively higher in the medium term.
Market Sentiment: Although this news doesn't directly affect oil supply or demand in the short term, it underscores uncertainties in alternative energy projects, potentially reinforcing the importance of fossil fuels for global energy security.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
The Shell refinery shutdown could tighten regional supply and indirectly boost crude oil demand to support refining operations.
Mongolia's uranium deal setback highlights delays in alternative energy development, indirectly supporting continued oil reliance.
Neutral or Limited Impact:
The uranium deal issue has no immediate bearing on oil markets but contributes to long-term energy security discussions.
Conclusion
The Shell refinery shutdown aligns well with bullish signal, as it adds a layer of supply disruption to the oil market. While the Mongolia news has less immediate impact, it reflects ongoing challenges in energy diversification, subtly reinforcing oil's role in the energy mix. Together, these developments lean towards a supportive outlook for higher oil prices in the short term.
4
All these news matter:
While we got early bullish signals during the last days,now more news are released.Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue. Egypt reported that its Suez Canal revenues have plunged by 60% year-over-year in 2024 as Houthi maritime warfare cost the North African country at least $7 billion, worsening Cairo’s plight as the Egyptian pound slid to a record low over the past month.
Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies. Libya’s Benghazi government agreed to a proposal from the rival Tripoli government to end fuel subsidies in the war-torn country, with gasoline prices remaining artificially low at $0.11 per gallon, the second-cheapest in the world.
Interpretation of oil trading news today:
Here’s how the two developments could influence the oil market, particularly in light of your bullish signal on oil prices:
Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue
Key Details:
Suez Canal revenues are down 60% year-over-year due to Houthi maritime attacks.
Losses of $7 billion exacerbate Egypt’s economic woes amid a record low for the Egyptian pound.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Supply Chain Disruption: The Suez Canal is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments. If Houthi attacks escalate or disrupt transit, it could delay shipments and increase transportation costs, creating upward pressure on oil prices.
Risk Premium: Geopolitical instability in the region adds a risk premium to oil prices, as traders factor in potential disruptions.
Currency Devaluation Impact: The weakening Egyptian pound might not directly influence oil prices, but it reflects economic instability that could worsen if the Suez remains compromised.
Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies
Key Details:
Rival governments in Libya are cooperating to end fuel subsidies.
Gasoline prices, currently at $0.11 per gallon (among the cheapest globally), are set to rise.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Higher Domestic Costs: Removing subsidies could reduce Libya’s domestic fuel consumption, leaving more oil and refined products for export.
Market Balance: Increased exports from Libya could counteract some supply tightness caused by other factors, potentially capping oil price increases.
Political Stability: This rare cooperation between Libya’s rival governments could indicate improving governance, which might increase Libya’s crude production and exports in the long term. This could have a bearish effect on oil prices if the market views it as a stabilizing factor.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
Suez Canal disruptions and geopolitical instability add to the risk premium on oil.
Supply chain concerns may tighten market sentiment.
Bearish or Neutralizing Factors:
Libya’s subsidy removal could lead to increased exports, easing supply pressures.
What to Watch For:
Suez Canal Traffic: Any further disruptions or escalations in Houthi maritime warfare could amplify bullish momentum in oil prices.
Libya’s Export Trends: Monitor whether Libya increases its crude oil and product exports following the subsidy removal.
In summary, the Suez Canal situation supports the bullish signal you've received, as it poses a significant risk to global oil logistics. Libya’s subsidy removal might introduce a balancing effect but seems less likely to fully offset the bullish momentum from Middle East instability.
More Tensions in the middle east in 2025 building Under Pressure, Iraq to Cut Gas Flaring. Amidst reports that Donald Trump might sanction Iraq’s imports of Iranian natural gas, Baghdad promised to cut flaring volumes by around 20% next year to meet rising demand, expecting to capture more than 85% of associated natural gas production.
Finland Seizes Suspicious Russian Tanker. Finland’s coast guard has boarded and seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of having caused an outage of an undersea electricity cable connecting Finland and Estonia, investigating potential sabotage.
Beijing Issues 2025 Product Export Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of refined product quotas for next year totaling 19 million tonnes, unchanged year-over-year, with recent changes to the country’s 13% export tax rebate making gasoline and diesel exports sub-commercial.
The news from Beijing about product export quotas and the export tax rebate has several potential implications for the oil market, particularly refined products like gasoline and diesel, which could indirectly influence crude oil prices. Here's a breakdown:
Key Points:
Unchanged Export Quotas (19 Million Tonnes):
The quota is the same as last year, suggesting that China isn't planning a significant increase or decrease in refined product exports.
A stable quota means China's refining capacity and crude oil import needs might not shift drastically in the near term.
Export Tax Rebate Adjustment:
China's 13% export tax rebate on refined products like gasoline and diesel has been adjusted, making exports less profitable or even "sub-commercial" (not economically viable).
This discourages the export of refined products, potentially keeping more supply within China for domestic consumption.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Domestic Market Focus:
If China prioritizes domestic consumption over exports, its domestic demand for crude oil (used to produce refined products) might stay strong. This can be bullish for crude oil prices as China's overall demand remains a key driver.
Global Supply Dynamics:
Reduced exports of gasoline and diesel from China could tighten global supply of these refined products, potentially driving up their prices.
Higher refined product prices could encourage refineries worldwide to increase crude oil processing, boosting crude oil demand.
Market Sentiment:
The market might interpret this as a sign of strong domestic demand in China, which is generally positive for oil prices.
However, if global economic concerns dominate, the muted export quotas might limit the bullish effect.
Oil Price Volatility:
Oil prices could see short-term bullish momentum due to perceived demand strength and tighter refined product supply globally.
Traders might also be cautious, monitoring other factors like global economic data, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical tensions.
Conclusion:
This news leans slightly bullish for crude oil, as it signals steady domestic demand in China and potentially tighter global supply for refined products. However, how oil prices react depends on broader market sentiment and other macroeconomic factors. Since you've received a bullish signal on oil, the news could support the signal, but always keep an eye on additional developments and technical confirmations in the market.
I have collected some very important and interpreted them.This will help you also t understand the backrounds. The bullish trend is currently at its weak phase where many false signals are ofcourse potentially possible.
In this phase of the trend I focuse just on risk management(tightenning stops,to breakeven etc.
But also increasing my positions in this phase and sizing them up are also possible.
Later in strong phase of the trend Iwont increase my positions, but I let the profits run.
I marked also Taking profits level for some of you who might are taking profits.
Generally I let the profits run and just cut the losses if necessary.
Important levels I marked in the chart.
Here Important catalysts why I believe Oil will climb up:
1
India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion. India’s state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum (NSE:BPCL) announced its plans to invest $11 billion in a new refinery in southern Andhra Pradesh state, adding 180,000 b/d of capacity and an integrated petrochemical plant to meet domestic demand.
France Launches First Reactor of 21st Century. 12 years overdue and four times the originally planned budget with a price tag of €13 billion, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor was finally connected to France’s power grid this week, marking the first addition of new nuclear capacity since Civaux-2 in 1999.
👉 Interpretation
France Launches First Reactor of the 21st Century
Key Details:
Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor, costing €13 billion and delayed by 12 years, is now operational.
First new nuclear capacity addition in France since 1999.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels: As nuclear energy replaces some fossil fuel-generated electricity, demand for oil (particularly fuel oil used for power generation in some regions) could decline slightly in Europe over the long term. However, this effect is minor since most oil demand comes from transportation rather than power generation.
Transition Signals: The operational reactor signals Europe's commitment to energy transition, which may influence long-term sentiment about reduced reliance on fossil fuels.
Neutral Short-Term Impact: Since the reactor serves a domestic market and does not affect global oil supply or demand immediately, the impact on oil prices is negligible in the short term.
India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion
Key Details:
Bharat Petroleum plans a $11 billion investment in a new refinery with a capacity of 180,000 b/d and an integrated petrochemical plant.
Focus is on meeting India’s growing domestic energy demand.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Increased Crude Demand: A new refinery requires crude oil as a feedstock, adding to global oil demand. Once operational, this expansion will support bullish trends in oil prices, especially as India becomes a larger importer of crude.
Focus on Domestic Market: The refinery aims to meet rising domestic consumption, particularly for transportation fuels and petrochemicals, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a driver of oil demand.
Positive Long-Term Outlook: While the refinery won't impact prices immediately, it highlights the bullish long-term demand trajectory for oil in emerging markets like India.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
India’s refinery expansion indicates long-term growth in oil demand, supporting bullish sentiment.
Emerging markets continue to drive global oil demand, balancing out declines in demand from developed regions.
Neutral or Bearish Factors:
France's new nuclear reactor reflects progress in the energy transition, potentially reducing oil demand in Europe. However, the short-term impact is negligible.
Conclusion
India's refinery expansion supports a bullish outlook for oil prices, complementing bullish signal. While France’s nuclear reactor signals a step toward alternative energy, its impact on global oil demand is minimal and overshadowed by growing energy needs in emerging markets like India. Overall, the developments reinforce a stable to slightly bullish environment for oil prices.
2
Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria. The Turkish government is readying to start negotiations with the new al-Julani government of Syria to delineate maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, a move that would allow Ankara to ‘increase its area of influence’ in energy exploration.
US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout. The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan to Guyana for the construction of a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant that would use ExxonMobil’s associated gas production from the Stabroek block, staving off intense Chinese competition.
👉 Interpretation of this news
Here's an analysis of how these developments might influence the oil market Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria
Key Details:
Turkey plans to negotiate maritime boundaries with the new Syrian government led by al-Julani.
The goal is to expand Turkey’s influence in Mediterranean energy exploration.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Energy Exploration Opportunities: If Turkey successfully delineates maritime boundaries, it could lead to new oil and gas exploration activities in the Mediterranean. This would increase the long-term potential for energy supply, but the impact on oil prices would be delayed and dependent on successful discoveries.
Geopolitical Risk Premium: Tensions surrounding maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean have previously caused geopolitical disputes (e.g., with Greece and Cyprus). The potential for disputes with other nations in the region could add a slight risk premium to oil prices.
No Immediate Impact: Since this development involves negotiations and potential future exploration, it does not have an immediate impact on oil supply or demand.
US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout
Key Details:
The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan for a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Guyana.
The plant will utilize ExxonMobil's associated gas from the Stabroek block, reducing flaring and tapping into a previously unused energy source.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Gas as an Alternative to Oil: Increased natural gas production in Guyana could slightly offset demand for oil in power generation over the long term. However, this is unlikely to significantly impact crude oil demand globally.
US vs. China Competition: The US financing reinforces its influence in Guyana, securing a foothold in the resource-rich region. This limits China's involvement but doesn't directly impact oil prices.
Neutral Impact on Crude Oil: Since this involves natural gas and not oil, the direct impact on crude prices is limited. However, the increased utilization of gas could eventually reduce the flare gas associated with oil production, slightly improving efficiency in Guyana's oil operations.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
Potential geopolitical disputes from Turkey’s maritime moves could introduce a risk premium into oil prices.
Long-term developments in Guyana's energy infrastructure reinforce stable energy supply, indirectly supporting efficient oil production.
Neutral or Limited Impact:
Both developments are longer-term in nature, with no immediate effect on crude oil supply or demand. The news leans more towards a neutral to slightly bullish influence on oil prices. Turkey’s maritime delimitation talks could introduce some geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean, which may support a minor risk premium. However, neither of these developments directly counters or strongly amplifies your bullish oil signal, which remains supported by other recent market-moving news (e.g., Suez disruptions, Shell refinery shutdown).
3
Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) shut down one of its oil processing units at the 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore after the nation’s Port Authority reported a leak of oil products together with the cooling water discharge.
Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal. The government of Mongolia has retracted the announcement of reaching a $1.6 billion deal with France’s uranium mining giant Orano, marking another odd roadblock on the way towards launching the Zuuvch Ovoo mine, in development since 2013.
👉I nterpretation of this oil trading news:
Here’s how these developments could impact the oil market and your bullish signal on oil prices:
Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak
Key Details:
Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at the Pulau Bukom refinery (237,000 barrels per day capacity).
The shutdown was caused by a leak reported alongside cooling water discharge.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Tightened Refining Capacity: With one of Asia’s major refining facilities partially offline, there will be reduced supply of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the region. This could support higher refined product prices, indirectly boosting crude oil demand as refineries aim to maintain supply levels.
Short-Term Supply Disruption: Depending on the duration of the shutdown, the disruption could lead to localized supply shortages and increased imports to meet demand, which is bullish for oil prices.
Environmental and Regulatory Fallout: If the shutdown is prolonged due to environmental regulations or extensive repairs, the market could factor in sustained supply tightness.
2. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal
Key Details:
Mongolia has retracted its announcement of a $1.6 billion deal with France’s Orano for developing the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium mine.
The project, in development since 2013, faces yet another delay.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Energy Diversification Delays: Delays in uranium mining projects hinder the global transition to nuclear energy, which is seen as a long-term competitor to oil and gas. This keeps oil demand relatively higher in the medium term.
Market Sentiment: Although this news doesn't directly affect oil supply or demand in the short term, it underscores uncertainties in alternative energy projects, potentially reinforcing the importance of fossil fuels for global energy security.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
The Shell refinery shutdown could tighten regional supply and indirectly boost crude oil demand to support refining operations.
Mongolia's uranium deal setback highlights delays in alternative energy development, indirectly supporting continued oil reliance.
Neutral or Limited Impact:
The uranium deal issue has no immediate bearing on oil markets but contributes to long-term energy security discussions.
Conclusion
The Shell refinery shutdown aligns well with bullish signal, as it adds a layer of supply disruption to the oil market. While the Mongolia news has less immediate impact, it reflects ongoing challenges in energy diversification, subtly reinforcing oil's role in the energy mix. Together, these developments lean towards a supportive outlook for higher oil prices in the short term.
4
All these news matter:
While we got early bullish signals during the last days,now more news are released.Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue. Egypt reported that its Suez Canal revenues have plunged by 60% year-over-year in 2024 as Houthi maritime warfare cost the North African country at least $7 billion, worsening Cairo’s plight as the Egyptian pound slid to a record low over the past month.
Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies. Libya’s Benghazi government agreed to a proposal from the rival Tripoli government to end fuel subsidies in the war-torn country, with gasoline prices remaining artificially low at $0.11 per gallon, the second-cheapest in the world.
Interpretation of oil trading news today:
Here’s how the two developments could influence the oil market, particularly in light of your bullish signal on oil prices:
Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue
Key Details:
Suez Canal revenues are down 60% year-over-year due to Houthi maritime attacks.
Losses of $7 billion exacerbate Egypt’s economic woes amid a record low for the Egyptian pound.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Supply Chain Disruption: The Suez Canal is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments. If Houthi attacks escalate or disrupt transit, it could delay shipments and increase transportation costs, creating upward pressure on oil prices.
Risk Premium: Geopolitical instability in the region adds a risk premium to oil prices, as traders factor in potential disruptions.
Currency Devaluation Impact: The weakening Egyptian pound might not directly influence oil prices, but it reflects economic instability that could worsen if the Suez remains compromised.
Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies
Key Details:
Rival governments in Libya are cooperating to end fuel subsidies.
Gasoline prices, currently at $0.11 per gallon (among the cheapest globally), are set to rise.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Higher Domestic Costs: Removing subsidies could reduce Libya’s domestic fuel consumption, leaving more oil and refined products for export.
Market Balance: Increased exports from Libya could counteract some supply tightness caused by other factors, potentially capping oil price increases.
Political Stability: This rare cooperation between Libya’s rival governments could indicate improving governance, which might increase Libya’s crude production and exports in the long term. This could have a bearish effect on oil prices if the market views it as a stabilizing factor.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
Suez Canal disruptions and geopolitical instability add to the risk premium on oil.
Supply chain concerns may tighten market sentiment.
Bearish or Neutralizing Factors:
Libya’s subsidy removal could lead to increased exports, easing supply pressures.
What to Watch For:
Suez Canal Traffic: Any further disruptions or escalations in Houthi maritime warfare could amplify bullish momentum in oil prices.
Libya’s Export Trends: Monitor whether Libya increases its crude oil and product exports following the subsidy removal.
In summary, the Suez Canal situation supports the bullish signal you've received, as it poses a significant risk to global oil logistics. Libya’s subsidy removal might introduce a balancing effect but seems less likely to fully offset the bullish momentum from Middle East instability.
More Tensions in the middle east in 2025 building Under Pressure, Iraq to Cut Gas Flaring. Amidst reports that Donald Trump might sanction Iraq’s imports of Iranian natural gas, Baghdad promised to cut flaring volumes by around 20% next year to meet rising demand, expecting to capture more than 85% of associated natural gas production.
Finland Seizes Suspicious Russian Tanker. Finland’s coast guard has boarded and seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of having caused an outage of an undersea electricity cable connecting Finland and Estonia, investigating potential sabotage.
Beijing Issues 2025 Product Export Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of refined product quotas for next year totaling 19 million tonnes, unchanged year-over-year, with recent changes to the country’s 13% export tax rebate making gasoline and diesel exports sub-commercial.
The news from Beijing about product export quotas and the export tax rebate has several potential implications for the oil market, particularly refined products like gasoline and diesel, which could indirectly influence crude oil prices. Here's a breakdown:
Key Points:
Unchanged Export Quotas (19 Million Tonnes):
The quota is the same as last year, suggesting that China isn't planning a significant increase or decrease in refined product exports.
A stable quota means China's refining capacity and crude oil import needs might not shift drastically in the near term.
Export Tax Rebate Adjustment:
China's 13% export tax rebate on refined products like gasoline and diesel has been adjusted, making exports less profitable or even "sub-commercial" (not economically viable).
This discourages the export of refined products, potentially keeping more supply within China for domestic consumption.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Domestic Market Focus:
If China prioritizes domestic consumption over exports, its domestic demand for crude oil (used to produce refined products) might stay strong. This can be bullish for crude oil prices as China's overall demand remains a key driver.
Global Supply Dynamics:
Reduced exports of gasoline and diesel from China could tighten global supply of these refined products, potentially driving up their prices.
Higher refined product prices could encourage refineries worldwide to increase crude oil processing, boosting crude oil demand.
Market Sentiment:
The market might interpret this as a sign of strong domestic demand in China, which is generally positive for oil prices.
However, if global economic concerns dominate, the muted export quotas might limit the bullish effect.
Oil Price Volatility:
Oil prices could see short-term bullish momentum due to perceived demand strength and tighter refined product supply globally.
Traders might also be cautious, monitoring other factors like global economic data, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical tensions.
Conclusion:
This news leans slightly bullish for crude oil, as it signals steady domestic demand in China and potentially tighter global supply for refined products. However, how oil prices react depends on broader market sentiment and other macroeconomic factors. Since you've received a bullish signal on oil, the news could support the signal, but always keep an eye on additional developments and technical confirmations in the market.
עסקה פעילה
Trump threatens to try to take back the Panama Canal.
How it will affect oil prices and inflation!!!
👉I nterpretation
The news that Trump threatened to "take back" control of the Panama Canal could create significant geopolitical tensions. The Panama Canal is a crucial global trade route, as it connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, allowing ships to bypass the long and costly route around South America.
If this threat were to escalate, it could lead to concerns over the stability of global shipping routes and trade agreements, which would likely affect oil prices. Here are the key points to consider:
Global Trade Disruptions: The Panama Canal is vital for international shipping, including the transportation of oil. Any conflict or uncertainty about control could disrupt the flow of goods, leading to higher shipping costs and delays. This could cause a ripple effect, potentially raising the cost of goods and commodities, including oil.
Shipping Costs: The canal is especially important for oil tankers. If fees were increased or access to the canal was threatened, shipping costs for oil would rise. This could increase the price of oil, particularly for countries that rely on the canal to export or import oil.
הערה
Geopolitical Tensions: A threat like this could raise tensions between the United States and Panama, as well as other nations that rely on the canal. This could lead to broader economic instability, which typically leads to higher commodity prices, including oil, as markets react to uncertainty.
In summary, while it's unclear whether the threat would lead to any significant changes, the potential for disruptions in global shipping and trade could put upward pressure on oil prices. However, it's important to note that this is still a statement rather than an official policy, and the actual impact will depend on how events unfold.
Trump's suggestion to "take back" the Panama Canal seems to stem from a mix of economic and political motivations, though it is more of a provocative statement than a concrete policy proposal. Here are some potential reasons behind this remark:
Economic Grievances: Trump has often expressed frustration with what he perceives as unfair trade practices, including the U.S. ceding control of the Panama Canal in 1999. He may believe that the U.S. gave up an important asset too easily and that Panama is benefiting financially from the canal's operation. Trump's criticism of "ridiculous" fees likely refers to the tolls that ships must pay to pass through the canal, which can be particularly high for larger vessels, including oil tankers.
America First Agenda: Trump’s "America First" stance during his presidency often focused on prioritizing U.S. interests in international agreements. His comments about the Panama Canal might be part of a broader narrative of reclaiming perceived losses or correcting what he sees as past mistakes in trade deals or international arrangements.
Geopolitical Positioning: The Panama Canal has significant geopolitical importance, as it is a critical trade link between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Trump may want to assert a more dominant U.S. role in global trade and control over vital infrastructure, especially given the canal's importance for shipping goods like oil. Such statements could play into a broader vision of increasing U.S. influence in the region.
Appealing to Domestic Support: Trump's rhetoric often appeals to voters who are frustrated with the outcomes of past U.S. foreign policy, particularly those who believe the U.S. has been taken advantage of in international agreements. By making bold statements like this, Trump may be seeking to tap into that sentiment, especially among those who feel that the U.S. lost out in its relationship with Panama over the canal.
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In summary, his remark likely reflects a combination of economic dissatisfaction with the current toll system, a desire to reaffirm U.S. influence, and an appeal to his base’s frustrations with past U.S. foreign policy. While it’s unclear if this is part of a larger strategic plan, it serves to keep the topic of U.S. global leadership in the public conversation.
The news about Donald Trump's suggestion to "take back" the Panama Canal could potentially create uncertainty in the global geopolitical landscape, which may have indirect effects on oil markets and traders' sentiment. While you still have a bullish signal and are long on oil, it’s important to consider the following factors to assess any risks or opportunities:
Shipping and Transportation Costs
Impact on Oil Shipping: As a key transit route for oil shipments, any disruption or uncertainty around the Panama Canal could affect oil supply chains. If the U.S. were to exert control over the canal or if there were even a perception of potential conflict, it could lead to increased shipping costs and delays, particularly for oil tankers. This could result in price volatility, either pushing prices higher due to supply concerns or causing a short-term dip due to uncertainty.
OPEC's Response: OPEC may monitor the situation carefully. If oil shipments are delayed or disrupted, OPEC countries may adjust their production strategies to mitigate supply shocks. However, OPEC could also see the situation as an opportunity to push for higher oil prices if the global market becomes more tense due to political or trade disruptions.
Geopolitical Tensions
Market Volatility: Traders often react to geopolitical risks, even if they don't immediately impact supply. Oil prices could become more volatile if tensions escalate, especially if any move to "regain" control of the Panama Canal is seen as a challenge to global trade stability. This could cause short-term corrections in oil prices.
OPEC's Reaction to Political Instability: While OPEC usually focuses on production levels, geopolitical instability can lead to changes in market expectations, and countries within OPEC might adjust production quotas or market strategies in response. This could affect oil prices in either direction.
Oil Prices and Longer-Term Bullish Trend
Bullish Market Signals: Since you're still holding a bullish position, the key question is whether the fundamentals (like demand for oil, OPEC's production cuts, and global economic recovery) still support higher prices. If the situation surrounding the Panama Canal remains a political dispute without significant impact on oil flows, it may not derail your bullish outlook.
Oil Supply and Demand Balance: The most important factor to watch is the supply and demand balance in the oil market. If any political action leads to disruption of oil supply or reduced shipping capacity, it could give a short-term boost to prices, but any signs of over-supply or slowing global demand could limit price increases.
4. Market Sentiment and Trader Behavior
Risk Sentiment: If this geopolitical issue begins to sour market sentiment and increases fears of instability, some traders might move to the sidelines or hedge their positions, leading to potential volatility. On the other hand, if the situation is seen as more of a political play or a negotiation tactic, it could have minimal impact.
Watch for Headlines: As you’re long, it’s crucial to stay alert to any new developments in the story. If the situation escalates and starts affecting global trade, it could trigger a flight to safety for some traders, causing oil to pull back temporarily.
5. Monitor Your Technical Indicators
Entry and Exit Points: While your bullish signal remains intact, remember to closely monitor key technical levels for oil prices (support and resistance). If the market becomes more volatile, you may want to tighten your stop-loss or consider partial profit-taking if price action shows signs of weakening.
Look for Divergence: Watch for any divergence between oil price action and indicators to assess if the current bullish momentum might be weakening. Even in a bullish trend, external shocks or sudden changes in sentiment can cause pullbacks.
What You Should Be Concerned About:
Unexpected Political Events: Any escalation in the political situation could disrupt oil supply routes or cause sudden volatility, leading to a sharp correction in oil prices.
OPEC's Production Changes: Keep an eye on OPEC's reaction to global geopolitical instability, as they could adjust production or make public statements that could influence oil prices.
Broader Market Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions often lead to shifts in investor sentiment, and oil traders are highly sensitive to changes in risk appetite. If markets turn risk-off, oil prices could experience a dip.
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What to Consider:
Stay Informed: Monitor news closely for any developments surrounding the Panama Canal issue, especially regarding how it might impact global trade or oil supply chains.
Risk Management: Since you're already long, ensure your position is well-hedged, and consider adjusting your risk tolerance if oil prices become more volatile.
OPEC and Global Supply: Keep an eye on OPEC's future decisions and any potential shifts in global supply and demand. If OPEC responds by reducing output or increasing supply in response to potential disruptions, it could affect the market.
In conclusion, while the Panama Canal situation adds a layer of uncertainty, it’s important to focus on the broader fundamentals of oil markets—OPEC policies, global economic trends, and supply-demand dynamics—while managing your risk carefully.
The suggestion that the U.S. might attempt to regain control of the Panama Canal could have indirect effects on inflation, both in the short and long term. Here’s how this geopolitical event might influence inflation:
Shipping Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions
Increased Shipping Costs: The Panama Canal is a vital route for global trade, including the transportation of oil and other key commodities. If tensions escalate or if access to the canal is disrupted, it could lead to higher shipping costs. Shipping companies would likely pass on these costs to consumers, which could result in higher prices for goods that rely on this trade route, such as oil, fuel, and other imported goods.
Inflationary Pressure on Commodities: The increased cost of shipping oil and other key commodities through the canal would likely raise prices for those goods. Since oil is a key input for many industries, any price increases could have a knock-on effect, pushing up the cost of transportation, manufacturing, and goods in general.
2. Oil Prices and Energy Costs
Higher Oil Prices: If the Panama Canal situation leads to any disruptions in oil shipments, it could push up the cost of oil. Oil is a major driver of inflation, as it affects the price of fuel, transportation, and energy across the economy. Higher oil prices would directly increase the cost of transportation and heating, which in turn would increase the prices of goods and services.
Energy-Related Inflation: In addition to affecting oil prices, any rise in shipping costs could influence the broader energy market, including natural gas and coal. If global energy costs rise, this could contribute to higher inflation, particularly in industries that are energy-intensive.
3. Impact on Global Trade and Economic Growth
Supply Chain Delays: If there is any threat of instability around the Panama Canal, it could cause delays in the global supply chain. Products may take longer to get to market, which could create shortages of goods. Supply shortages are a classic driver of inflation, especially if demand remains strong while supply is constrained.
Potential Recession Risks: On the flip side, if the situation leads to greater geopolitical instability or trade disruptions, it could slow global economic growth. This might temper inflationary pressures in the medium term, especially if global demand for oil and other goods falls. However, in the short term, supply disruptions could keep inflation elevated.
4. Currency and Inflation Expectations
Dollar Value: Any significant geopolitical event involving the U.S. and a key trade route could lead to fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar. If tensions rise, investors might seek safer assets (such as gold or government bonds), which could weaken the dollar. A weaker dollar could make imports more expensive, driving up prices for foreign goods and contributing to inflation.
Inflation Expectations: If markets perceive the U.S. as taking aggressive actions to regain control of the Panama Canal, it could increase uncertainty about future trade relationships and supply chains. This could push inflation expectations higher, as businesses might anticipate rising costs in the future and adjust their pricing accordingly.
5. Political and Economic Uncertainty
Uncertainty-Induced Inflation: Geopolitical uncertainty can lead to higher inflation in the short run due to the risk premium that investors place on commodities and goods. If the situation worsens, the cost of commodities like oil, metals, and food could increase due to fears of shortages or disruptions. The higher cost of living for consumers—especially in sectors like transportation, energy, and manufacturing—would contribute to inflationary pressures.
Increased Risk Premium: Investors and businesses may increase their risk premiums on contracts and prices, anticipating that any potential conflict could lead to higher costs. This could contribute to inflation, particularly in goods that are heavily dependent on international trade or shipping routes.
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Key Takeaways for Inflation:
Short-Term Effects: Increased shipping costs, higher oil prices, and potential disruptions to global supply chains could push inflation higher in the short term, particularly for energy-related goods and products that rely on the Panama Canal for transportation.
Medium-Term Effects: If the situation escalates, the uncertainty could further raise inflation expectations, leading businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers. Additionally, the potential for a weaker U.S. dollar could make imports more expensive, contributing to inflation.
Long-Term Effects: If the situation is resolved without major disruptions, the impact on inflation may be more temporary. However, if there are lasting changes in trade dynamics or energy supply chains, inflation could remain elevated longer, especially if oil prices stay high.
As an oil trader, you should stay alert to any signs of increasing geopolitical tensions or supply chain disruptions, as these could have a significant impact on inflation and, consequently, oil prices.
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++++IMPORTANT++++VERY IMPORTANT++++
Nancy Mace,Rep., sayid:After Syria,USA will attack Iran!!!!!
As I announced tensions in the middle east will heat up!
Now it is offficial. I bought massive oil, and I will use any puööbacks to buy more of this black gold
הערה
Strong global oil demand, as highlighted by the World Bank and IEA, supports
bullish sentiment for oil.
• China's EV adoption hasn't yet significantly reduced transport sector oil demand.
• Your long positions in oil align with these fundamentals
הערה
Oil rises on expanding Chinese factory activity
Iran hasn't changed nuclear doctrine, official says
Oil prices rose in early trade on Tuesday after data showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded in December, but for a second consecutive year oil was on track to end lower due to demand concerns in top consuming countries.
Iranian authorities have made no changes to the country's existing nuclear doctrine, based on the views of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tasnim news agency reported on Monday, citing head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian. "Based on the opinion of the Supreme Leader of Iran , no changes have been made to the nuclear doctrine of the Islamic Republic," the media cited Ahmadian as saying. Following criticism from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, Iran was reported to engage in nuclear discussions with delegates from France, Germany, and the United States
Focus on China's oil demand, predicted to peak in 2025 or 2027, is expected to keep a lid on oil prices next year.
Supply disruptions from OPEC+ or renewed sanctions on Iran could challenge price stability in 2025.
India's rising oil demand and potential for a supply glut are other factors to consider in the 2025 oil price outlook.
Sinopec was next, publishing a report a week ago saying that oil demand growth in China was about to reach its peak in three years in 2027. The peak will occur at a daily demand level of some 16 million barrels or a total of 800 million metric tons, the Chinese state oil major said. A year ago, Sinopec saw Chinese oil demand peaking at around 800 million metric tons sometime between 2026 and 2030.
Natural gas futures soared 15% to start the holiday-shortened trading week as prices eyed the promised land of $4. The energy commodity has exceeded $4 before paring its gains. Natural gas is finding support in cold temperatures and geopolitical strife in Eastern Europe.
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increasing demand expectationsהערה
US Dollar Slides as Market Ponders Trump Tariffs
and Justin Trudeau,PM of Canada is saying to resign.
This are perfect news, as we can now add more to our bullish positions from this range,
Trend starting its last weak phase,entering into strong phase of bullish trend
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Fantastic strong Oil trend that began at 65 DOLLAR still continuing arriving now its strong phase. Current price is now 80, and this will be strongly supported by the bulls. Istay in this strong trend, using the pullbacks to buy more and more.... GREENLAND;Panama annd Iran ,last not least also Russia have a definite answer to RUMPS POLICY in 225:And the best is,that trend followers will have avery good yearin 2025 in trading of oil. Why? Because Iam a trend follower, on D tf or higher. Thats a lot of fun.
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