CONTINUOUS GOLD FORECAST, 15-MIN BAR, NFP SWING, 2315-2275

Introduction - This is the 3rd daily continuous gold forecast since the PRELIMINARY DRAFT and the first one posted for public audience on TradingView. This post will stay live for about 14 hours and cover MOST of the NFP reaction before I wrap it up and continue in the matching private post.

Details - First, I went silent the last 24 hours because I unknowingly broke some TradingView House Rules. So if you tried to reach me in that time and I didn't answer, that's because was temporarily banned. Now that we know that, let's not do that again. Meanwhile, House Rules only allow me to list a link at the bottom of before the Disclaimer/Related Ideas section at the end of every post. Otherwise if you have asked me in the last month, I will get back to you soon.

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11:08 PM ET NOTES, CONTINUING FROM 8-MIN BAR CHART FROM TG:
a) we're waiting for a move to 2295
b) so we can get long for 2317 around NFP
c) so:

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1) in chart above, I still think we can tag 2295 around 3 AM ET
2) as I am in NY time zone, I will be up to 2 AM ET to confirm the low
3) NFP is 8:30 AM ET or 5.5 hours after that
4) I'll wake up once between before 6 to make sure we are on target for 2317
5) and wake up around 7 AM to prepare for the 35-50 pt rug pull

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11:28 PM ET, 2301.51
6) it doesn't "have to reach down"
7) but it also doesn't "have to get past 2310"
8) so if you want value for the long before NFP
9) you either keep you stop right at 2301 or wait it out
10) right now, I still think we can reach down to 2295

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11:44 PM ET, for those wondering where we are
1) the BINARY THESIS DRAFT 12 determined the move for 2222/2195
2) the CONTINUOUS PRELIMINARY DRAFT is 22-min bar "generic route" to 2222/2195
3) and everything we've been doing since is basically detailing price action around the clock
4) minus 5-7 hours of sleep depending on if price is interesting

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12:03, 2303.xx rising now, maybe bottom in?
a) can't say yet
b) working on it

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c) 12:08 AM ET 2302.70, looks like bottom in and working up now for 2317
d) ugly but true

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e) the route that price is taking without the check down...
f) does not look smooth to me

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g) for jesuscrisissuperstar, 2320 is not happening
h) getting past 2311 is a fight, and past 2315 is already max pain, odds of 2320 are super super low

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12:16, ZIGZAG action
1) bc of the zigzag since early today
2) it's really not that obvious that bears won't make one more push before London
3) but because of the time limit left
4) if they do, the ceiling will drop from 2317 to 2310-ish

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12:27 time out, I don't know if the route is quite right

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1) it's just so ugly looking (regression trend break down)
2) I mean the criss-crossing is just nuts

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3) it should be, but it's really ugly looking

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1) I called V-M-V pattern since 4/30 ...
2) because the trend break down look just like V-M-V
3) this part is... ugly, there's no other word for it
4) bc it's still trying to do an "M" without a "true M setup"
5) so it's a "bent M", which means while it may appear to go up a bit early
6) it should be continued zigzag going up, and not a smooth move
7) as anticipated

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8) the criss-crossing makes it "a fight going up"
9) so scalping upwards would be be the best strategy here

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1) but I dont even know if it can make it

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2) so just straight line scalp it like this:

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3) if it breaks down, sell and wait for a better spot, bc it's a long night
4) if it keeps going to 2310, then swing down would be quicker

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1:06 AM, 2308.67, value about to run out, be careful.

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1:13 AM, so probably zigzag and check the blue line before 2317 in the morning like this:

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a) for reference ok?
b) in an M pattern, some one asked me so let me clarify
c) also known in some circles as "batman pattern"

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d) like this:

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e) in chart above, the left is just two tops
f) where the right is more of a true M pattern
g) but lots of times, ONE SIDE OF THE M, is itself an M pattern like this:

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2:18 AM ET 2302.XX, this is the check to the blue line.
1) I am looking to see if this pattern is holding
2) I don't like how deep the the check is

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2:32 AM ET 2300.XX
3) what in the world?
4) what happened to the notes just now?

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5) ok, I still think this pattern holds, but it's a more complicated one

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6) so I'm going to work on this for a few minutes then I'm lights out

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7) ok in chart above, light blue is what we have in chart at top
8) yellow and gray are two most likely extrapolations right now of this move
9) what this drop to 2300 seem to say, is that 2310 may be the top, not 2317
10) but my worry, bc I am about to sleep is, will this stick...
11) if we move up we will get rug pull
12) the question is will we move up

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13) and at 2:43 AM ET, my answer is a definitive yes
14) but this is MORE ZIGZAG then I expected, so close now to NFP less than 6 hours out
15) but the pattern is still holding

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16) so before I'm lights out, red move summarizes the move the best
a) we probably go to 2295 like we wanted before
b) but since IT'S SO LATE, the bounce is capped at 2309-2311
c) which means the floor has to TO DROP TO COMPENSATE FOR THE VOL
d) pushing AT OR UNDER 2265
e) this means THE FIRST RETRACE AFTER 2265 SHOULD BE 2282

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4:22 AM ET, uglier by the minute:
1) it doesn't want to move up
2) so it has to move to 2295

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3) if it's so late now
4) that moving to 2295 next, would pin the ceiling at 2304-2305 for NFP
5) and push the floor to 2262-ish
6) so be aware
7) either move up now and maybe still get to 2309+
8) or move down to 2295 now, and the the bounce will only make it 2305 or less
9 before a 42pt rug pull

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10) in chart above, that covers ALL THE BASES, so see you 8 AM OR SOMETHING

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1) I am a little bit ambivalent
2) bc this pattern did not do what we expected it to
3) which is a bump that hasn't happened

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4) so the dripping finally hit 2294.xx
5) BE CAREFUL HERE!!
6) at 8:28 AM ET... the first reaction SHOULD BE A BOUNCE TO 2307.XX
7) bc the bounce STILL HAS NOT HAPPENED

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8:30 spike is overtly strong 2318.xx

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1) 2319.xx as I type
2) first becareful
3) second short, with dead stop at 2319 (it's 2317.xx already)

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4) 8:32, 2312.xx trail stop here!
5) we are still in reaction phase

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6) I am already stopped out 2316.xx
7) waiting for a better spot

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8) trying again

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9) first trade profit just a little bit
10) BUT THAT'S OK, HIT BIG THE SECOND TIME
11) TRAIL YOUR STOP!

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12) stopped out again and here's THIRD TRY

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13) in this environment (NFP, FOMC, crazy event days, YOU MUST BE DISCIPLINED)
14) it's the only time that's scalping is quickly profitable
15) but not without major swing risk

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16) 8:45 2302.xx now we in rug pull mode...
17) THAT DOESN'T MEAN YO SHOULD NOT TRAIL YOUR STOP!

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8:46 AM ET YOUR STOP SHOULD BE 2304 RIGHT NOW!
18) dammit, I got to take my dad to the ER
19) and stopped out while I type this

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20) short again 2306 stop, I will keep checking in from the hosppital

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21) targets are 2289, 2279 ...

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22) bc the high was 2320?
23) we can only expect 2275 low unless I post something ok?
24) I gotta drive now

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1) something has changed
2) if shorting again KEEP STOPS TIGHT AF!

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3) stop should be 2304 now

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That's 9:01 am.

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9:12 try again

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KEEP STOP TIGHT AF!!

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9:40 SORRY, just got him checked in and everything...
1) so we tagged 2277.xx
2) short value IS NO LONGER OBVIOUS

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3) the shape of curves ARE NOT WHAT WE EXPECTED LAST NIGHT WHEN WE POSTED THIS
4) so?
5) so now what we already hit 2277, and it is 2287.xx as I type...
6) I have to rerun regressions to know what is next
7) BUT WE DO KNOW THIS: MAX PAIN IS 2255-2263
8) "in theory, bears do have the room to push to 2255"
9) WHY?

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10) bc UP TO 8:29 AM ET ...
11) the setup WAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER than what we expected to see
12) and the the spike to 2320.. while 13 pts higher than anticipated
13) WENT DOWN PRETTY QUICK RELATIVE TO THE SETUP
14) so the spike's influence on overall trend is minimal
15) hence despite hitting high, the floor should be closer to 2360 anyway

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16) in chart above, so obvious lyIF IT HITS THAT TREND LINE on the "check-up" retrace
17) we should short one more time WITH A STOP TIGHT AF!

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FOR THE RECORD
1) if you want to double your profits
2) PICK UP A BOOK ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
3) one of the originals most popular on amazon or something
4) read it twice maybe three times
5) my forecasting while strong cannot make up for lack of technical analysis background
6) bc most of the time I just quote zones and levels
7) the actual profit efficiency is in trade/risk management
8) which you would be much stronger with regular or classical TA background

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10:13 AM THIS POST HAS ENDED
1) when I have something new
2) we will continue on Tg private post
3) for those that want to roll with us, that is first link RIGHT UNDER THIS NOTE
4) that's a wrap and have a good day

הערה:

5/3 10:55 AM ET, 2294.XX, TO CLEAR UP A FEW THINGS
1) we tagged that 85 scalp and now zig zag sideways to up
2) if you've been following on 4/30, AT 7 AM, I posted this in the "BINARY THESIS DRAFT 12":

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3) that was the original draft of V-M-V PATTERN
4) so to zoom in:

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11:49 - there's something wrong with the link, it doesn't work, doesn't do anything.
1) sigh... one step forward, 2 steps back'
2) I'll get to it when I get to it

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12:00 PM ET CHANGE OF PLANS....
1) 2293.XX right now... don't see this last V playing out
2) it should be just plain old short right now
3) but HOW IT GOES DOWN... is the problem meaning the details
4) working on it

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5) you can short NOW, with a tight stop
6) target is 2250 BUT 24 HOURS OUT
7) meaning this time on Monday
8) obvious the exact details is what I working on
9) but the VALUE IS STRONG.. so...
10) this is not about fear of missing out
11) this is about getting value, so you SHOULD SHORT NOW with a tight stop
12) if you know how to manage your trades well
13) if you don't, then just wait til I have something, and I'll post it on telegram

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THIS POST HAS ENDED, WE WILL CONTINUE HERE WHILE I FIX T