gold baby

The COT has turned commercial's topped out the last two weeks at 40% long gold. swap dealers last week had their most bullish stance. July 25 the wise guys added longs and are now 63% long to the commercials at 37%. Contrarians would call this bearish for golds price. Simplistic analysis of commercial/fund is not as important as the swing. sine wave type pattern. The funds always stay too long and commercials sell into the strength. My take last two weeks the commercials got as bullish as they could. Part of their number is of course the Barricks, and suppliers who are doing forward selling/hedging.

The COT looks to have swung with this weeks big 5% rise for the funds they took on a net 31,000 long contracts. I see prices continuing to increase to this weeks target of 1280. staying long

Looking at the Fib entrancement.
1210 has held twice

עסקה פעילה:

On the upside the 23.6% line was the last mini cycle resistance. We blew right through that level. I am predicting 1280 will be seen this week.
stay long.,

הערה:

Even Barrons has re-trumpeted the outrageous volatility selling. In my world wise guys have been selling put premium like no tomorrow. This normally works until it doesn't. Even a 4% daily rout will cause real ALGO pressure. Those short vol strategies can blow up hard and fast. I've seen way out of the money puts explode greater than 1000% in one day. late as of August of 2015. It can happen again. Big sellers are getting nickels (5 cents) on put premium..

If we finally get an outside day and volatility spikes, I see gold at 1300 in an instance.

הערה:

silver looks good also.

עסקה פעילה:

stay long gold and silver

עסקה פעילה:

stay long gold and silver

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני:

tax reform and re-repatriation likely

close gold long