3600/4000, DRAFT 10-1, 2333 and 2233/2222 (SAME DIFFERENCE)
Introduction - So since the move to 2311-2314, I have to "play it by ear" because price is moving faster than my ability to map "an intermediate thesis" that is in sync with price action from here to August. In order to stay relevant and ahead of price action, let's talk less and do better.
Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-3, price chose yellow route to 2291 and trend engine has a strong setup for 2333 next. Since 2291 is in the middle of this big channel. It seemed for a second that low maybe be in. I am - however - very suspicious that that after 2333, is another 100 pt drop to 2233, and once there, not tagging 2222 seems silly to me. For the guy that asked about 6-month entry, IT'S GOING TO BE 2222-2233 SOMETIMES IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else with your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!
Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-3, price chose yellow route to 2291 and trend engine has a strong setup for 2333 next. Since 2291 is in the middle of this big channel. It seemed for a second that low maybe be in. I am - however - very suspicious that that after 2333, is another 100 pt drop to 2233, and once there, not tagging 2222 seems silly to me. For the guy that asked about 6-month entry, IT'S GOING TO BE 2222-2233 SOMETIMES IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else with your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!
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10:30 AM ET 2321.XX AFTER BID/ASK TAGGED 2332:1. don't have time right now to update
2. from my phone, looks like a second push past 2332 should happen
3. and ultimately fail...
4. cant confirm when wo my laptop
5. and...
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6. by time I get in front of my screens in a few hours7. it may all be over
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8. OR NOT:הערה
11:19 AM ET, 2321.XX, CHART AT TOP PROBABLY EARLY BY 24 HOURS:9. continuing from last notes, looks like 2233 should be late Thursday or Friday AM, New York time
10. that implies that we will be SIDEWAYS BETWEEN 2292 AND 2232 for....
11. 24-30 hours
12. so let's say until NY close tomorrow (Wednesday)
13. without checking trend maps, this means at 2322.xx and 11:23 as I type
14. we are probably going down before another bounce to 2233 area
15. that's all I got right now
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16) continuing in chart above this is base case
17) and every now and then I feel like I have to point this out for noobs that don't know what they are talking about
18) if you follow my notes, and you still have a hard time trading
A) this is not for you, it's not going to work
B) I'm not going to "get better" bc there's no more time
C) so rather than trash the work, maybe TRY SOME OTHER PEOPLE
D) like the top 10 writer/analysts on Tradingview landing page
E) God, I don't know how many times I've said this
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19) you can always try "premium" forecasting services20) this is a free service I give with the time that I have (and I have to pay monthly to do it!)
21) so you are not in position to demand "that I give more of my time"
22) why is that so hard to understand?
23) this is the real world, not a videogame
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12:13 PM ET 2326.XX this needs an updatea) so all recent plans cancelled
b) because I don't want you making decisions on outdated information
c) things expire all the time
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d) here's the problem:הערה
e) so the target is 2222-2233f) but the sharp move down...
g) is very hard to determine right now
h) and this goes hand-in-hand with what the rebound right now should be
i) if this drop moves to Sunday/Monday
j) then the ceiling RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE 2341-2343
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k) and 2350 can not be eliminated either l) so be aware of this until I have something
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m) so watch out for a push to 2241-43 firstn) and we will play it by ear
o) BUT WHAT IS OBVIOUS IS THAT THIS LOW AHEAD OF MAY 1 FOMC...
p) MUST BE LOWER THAN THE 6/7-6/12 LOW
q) so the ONLY OPPORTUNITY for price to tag 2222 is this coming Sunday-Monday-Tuesday window
r) so basically up a bit more
s) longer and wider sideways between 2300-2340 this will take Wednesday and Thursday
t) then move down for 2222 starting Friday
s) that's where we are at
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>>> 12:40 PM posted this on the wrong page so: >>> 12:37 PM ET, 2326.XX, in the mean time base case is:
>>> a) after this coming "check up" retrace
>>> b) we are sideways to Friday
>>> c) and move for 222 before 05/01 FOMC
>>> d) that's a wrap until I got something else to add
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12:57, basically:a) if you have to change routes as you go...
b) then why have a base case at a all???
c) BECAUSE YOU CAN'T KNOW WHAT IS CORRECT
d) UNLESS YOU KNOW WHAT IS INCORRECT
e) that's why I've called it a "process of elimination"
f) how can you tell what is "high vol/high value" unless you know what is "low vol" and not worth your time?
g) so that's why you have to have a base case
h) and it also helps if short term, medium term, and long term agree
I) BUT THEY DONT' HAVE TO AGREE
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j) and when they do that you get sideways market in the middle of whatever long term trend you havek) but these sideways areas are cyclical, so if you get one now, you usually get one later too
l) and this creates the overall rhythm
m) we know that this gold bull will die summer/fall 2025
n) and there's FOUR MAJOR MOVES
o) we are still in the first one
p) but that's all we need to ball park the last 3 MAJOR MOVES
q) so that's why we were 6000 but now having trouble holding to 4000 top
r) because the deadline for first move is May 23rd-ish
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s) and that first high that could have been 27xx, 26xx, 25xx...t) now looks like 2480-2500
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u) and the price action between now and 6/12 just got really complicated w) because the sideways zone is now 2222 and 2500 with high medium term vol
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1:33 PM ET, 2326.XX when will we get to 2342...a) it was obvious an hour ago
b) now not so obvious
c) I don't have enough time to deal with this part right now
d) it's still favored to get there sometime next 8 hours
e) but those odds change frequently, so this is not a sure thing by any means
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f) so this line that price gave up and has now re-taken ...g) and will give up again, matters a great deal
h) price may swing over it a few more times before collapsing
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1:41 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WRAP UP BC I GOTTA RUN:הערה
a) whatever the case maybe ...b) we should be stuck in a sideways zone again for at least 40 hours until a big move develops
c) so that's it for now
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2:30 short term ceiling has been dropping from 2351 to 2347a) if price doesn't move past 2333, this ceiling will drop all the way to 2230 by tomorrow
b) in which case, first scans for sideways under 2333 was right after all
c) but we don't know that until we know
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3:34 PM 2323.xx, about 2340s or higher so here's this first:הערה
1) in chart above, this got left out in the notes earlier2) so price is above this line that it's obvious going to fail holding on to...
3) but zooming in ...
4) it's still early to say that bulls won't try again:
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5) continuing in chart above with the two boxes6) so ceiling now 2345 and later will be 2338
7) if price loses that line... pretty sure we're not breaking above 2332 again
8) but if it holds that line going across... don't be shocked at a surprise move up
9) that would get rug-pulled any way
10) so that's a wrap
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11) long story short we are aiming for 2222 Mondayהערה
12) but, with early break of support, look more like this"הערה
a) the interplay of resistance lines is reflected in LRC wavesb) so the number of moves and routes down more or less do the same thing
c) which is get on top of first resistance... then keep falling
d) get on top of second resistance... then keep falling
e) go sideways to FOMC
f) spike up hard to third resistance at about 2382-2388
g) by using micro trend lines, that should really be enough for you ...
h) "to handle the move down to 2233
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4:00 PM, next move down would be 2288 targetהערה
1) it would take a while to get going 2) but if bears want to go directly there
3) they have to get there a couple hours before London
4) so basically midnight NY time:
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5) and the target would be 2277הערה
8:38 PM ET, 2321.XX and I think this line is going down, BUT:1) 2293 area is going to hold
2) for 4-6 hours
3) THEN bounce up to whatever let say 2305
4) and then down to 2295 again
5) this is going to kill next 20-24 hours
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6) price unlikely to move under 2290 until at least ...7) this time tomorrow
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8) so from my phone:הערה
9) that's not a great example, but bounce not 2305, more like 231210) will add notes when I get home tonight
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11) all I got tonight is this: 12) for chart above, after re-averaging routes ...
13) this is what we have now
14) this move is not going to be sharp like the moves since Sunday open
15) it SHOULD BE a bunch of small zigzags
16) which will make price action seem slow
17) but still aiming for 2277
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12:05 AM, so almost 2330 nowa) I should run trend maps here
b) but I'm too tired and I'm going to bed
c) just be careful
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1) continuing in chart above, the updated curves would cast a move...2) somewhere between yellow and blue but closer to blue...
3) but overall, same expectations of continuing this move tow 2222
4) price needs to get over that trend line like red move
5) and do this relatively early to kill most bear routes going down
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8:47 AM ET he're's where we are now \הערה
6) continuing in chart above, my view on this move down has not changed meaningfully7) and that is, if we are in a bull market and price intend to retrace to 2195-2222 area
8) its best chance to to do that is from here to 5/1 FOMC
9) with best candidate being Monday
10) because of LRC wave positioning, a hard swing up is forming after 5/1 and ...
11) while complicated looking after 2385, should swing past 2460 in all scenarios
12) but if we floor here at the median (and odds now 15-20%)...
13) the likely May 23rd ish top is 2480-2500+
14) from 5/23 to 6/12 is a hard move down
15) that has been in all routes since early January
16) so if price floor here at 2290s
17) that STRONGLY IMPLIES THAT JUNE LOW BEFORE 6/12 FOMC is 2320 AND HIGHER
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18) so at 9:05 AM ET, in my humbled opinion, 2324.xx here is another dead cat bounce19) until price escapes the spiral to 2222
20) at this point in time - 2325.xx now - I see no evidence of a bottom
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10:33 AM, HERE'S THE ROUTE TO 2342:הערה
21) in chart above, bulls rejected at the bold black line twice this morning22) moving for third, or fourth attempt
23) they are pushing 2337.5, with second wind to 2342
24) that's the obvious part
25) so basically, they want a strong NY close, and a strong NY after market close
26) with FOMC 5 days from now...
27) does that support the case for 2292-2300 floor?
28) it begins to, more importantly with the time winding down ..
29) this move would 2-3 most likely bear routes to 2222
30) some more context:
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1) in chart above, obviously if we drop hard straight down to 2300 soon 2) like 90 minutes or something
3) then we don't take it seriously at all
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11:21 AM ET 2331.XX so be very careful in the next 60-90 minutes4) price is out of position vs weekly trend
5) it needs to "prove strength" here
6) the other option is rug pull
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7) 11:28 AM ET... so the fight for the floor is going to happen here next 5.5 hours until NY aftermarket close.a) bears's is rug pull under 2305
b) bulls move is close 2343-2251
c) I can't call it here because for bulls to win here...
d) they have to beat weekly trends in a very counter-trend move that's also very late
e) but it is true that they don't really have another card to play
f) because continuing sideways would not take 2222 off the table
g) the window would continue to be open until FOMC
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1) 12:00 PM ET, four hours until NY aftermarket close and early Tuesday wrap up2) in chart above, that's the current situation
3) absent some big "event driven surprise"
4) bears are about to make 2222 into an outright favorite
5) for reference out right favorite is over 50% vs entire field
6) whereas minor favor is most likely outcome but under 50%
7) so like 40% with 3-4 competing outcomes
8) let's see where we close and I'll add notes tonight
9) meanwhile, if you want to get on my private service list, send me a message
10) I don't have one now, I am just keeping a list so I know when to start
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1:05 PM 2326.XX, bulls aren't ready to give up yeta) so be aware of what they want
b) they want 2337 and 2343, extending to 2351
c) the still have time but they need to get it up now
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1:12 OMG... they're going to do it..d) how?
e) let's see
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1:21 PM ET, it's still 50/50 nowa) either break up through 2338
b) or rug pull and bulls are still trying at 2329.xx
c) I would call this if I knew what to to call here
d) just use most recent bull trend line on 1 min bar
e) that should contain it
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f) continuing in chart above, bears want that boxg) bulls want to blast to 38, 43, 51
h) even at 1:34 PM I can't call it yet, have a good one
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i) in chart above, if I stick with medium term or intermediate trends..j) it would be a bear call the entire time
k) but that's not the accurate way to call this move
l) because it's SUPPOSED TO BE COUNTER-TREND
m) so you can't call it until you there's enough to say it failed
n) in that sense, I'll call bear route now
o) I'll update tonight
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1) in chart above, the magic number for me is 22222) bc if you remembered during the move up we didn't tag it 3-4 times like we were supposed to
3) lower than 2222 is really hard because we are running out of time
4) unless it's a POST-FOMC "misunderstanding"
5) that gets resolved "in the evening after markets close"
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2:45 PM ET 2319.XX, if you have followed me in the last 7-8 monthsa) I think I've proven it's possible to forecast well and profitably
b) but I've also proven that it takes "around the clock" attention to price action
c) and I wish I started out with this goal in mind instead 8 years ago
d) but since that wasn't the goal, so I really am running out of time
e) sucks, but that's honest to God truth
f) it's not that I can't do this "part time"
g) but the quality IS NOT THE SAME
h) like the move down from 2390s since Sunday night
i) once again, base case was wrong, but as usual, the live notes hit continuously
j) I know for a fact I only do that when I am with a screen 16 hours a day
k) but if I don't do that "continuous" updating, I can't respond to change as quickly
l) this goes back to the question "how I do analysis if market not open"?
m) the correct question is "how can you do analysis if market IS OPEN?"
n) only if you pay attention all the time
o) where I go from here this forecasting thing I really don't have a clue
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p) for you guys though, my call stands until disprovenq) 2285, 2255, 2240, 2233, 2222
r) we are still rounding the top right now
s) it will drop hard again once that's done with
t) but from here to Monday is "staircase" price action
u) not the "hard down" like the move from 2390 to 2330
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v) so here: הערה
w) in chart above think "stair case price action" x) and once you get to Monday sideways to flat
y) and FOMC is setting up a huge 2-day move to 2385+
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z) 4:23 PM ET 2316.XX and now:הערה
1) in chart above: see the move on the far left? 2) it was 9:15 PM ET during Tokyo
3) first, we need a zig-zag or check-up retrace to that line to kill 2-3 hours
4) once at 9:00 PM ET tonight there should be a sharp move down
5) the target is actually 2299
6) but if the move is a vertical move like far left, then target would be 2281
7) in which case it would be AT LEAST A SHORT TERM BOTTOM
8) with a built-in retrace to 2307 before anything else happens
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9) that's all I got right nowהערה
10) and it's 2314 now, bounce after 2311הערה
6:43, never made 2311 and bounced, seem to be saying more curve in the move:הערה
7:15 PM ET 16.93, move down should start now, if a bit zig-zag first.הערה
9:08 PM ET and bulls are trying to delay the move to 2300a) why?
b) because if they delay long enough
c) it becomes a hard swing to 2355-2365
d) like this:
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e) it's a check at the 43-year trend linef) IT IS AN "IF" RIGHT NOW SO DON'T FREAK OUT
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g) this is an illustration of "what happens when price action is late"h) it gets reversed, I can literally write a doctoral thesis on why that is
i) just be aware while I work on the route down
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j) 9:29 PM ET, that's exactly what is happeningהערה
4/24/24, 9:42 PM ET, NEW BASE CASE- buy the next check to 2300-ish
- we going all the way back up
- 2480-2500 on or before 05/23
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
SO THIS POST HAS ENDED, THERE IS NO NEW POST. BUT HERE'S NEXT MOVE:הערה
10:03 PM ET, this is all I got: a) and I am out of time
b) let's hope I figure something out
c) i'll see ya
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HERE'S NEW DRAFT 11-1:
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