4800 DRAFT 9-2, GOLD IS GETTING READY TO GO ... NO WHERE

Introduction - Bulls are holding 43-year trend line at 2360s while NASDAQ bears formed a soft ceiling at 2400 that should hold past through May 1st FOMC. The result has gold range bound, predominantly between 2367-2392 for the incoming nine trading days, after which gold should head for 2444 and higher.

Details - Follow up to 9-1 DRAFT's failure to break out and the result has medium term trends twisting sideways until FOMC. In chart above, dashed line is 43-year trend line. Two hi-lights imply that the while the range of the box is tight, the twists in the box can vary considerably. However, Binary Forecasting Services's trend engine sees so significant value in this zone until Jerome Powell says something about it on Wednesday 05/01/24. See previous drafts for background.

Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else in your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!

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4/18, 1:53 PM ET, 2383.xx notes.
1) if you think calling range bound price action before hand is easy...
2) it's hard AF from a trend engine perspective
3) that said, the range in this zone should be PREDOMINANTLY 2367-2392
4) and it's 2383.59 as I type
5) unless I see a setup moving out side this box...
6) I am not going to add anything to this post because it's not worth your time or mine
7) relax, if I nail this forecast ...
8) save your energy for May and June
9) because it looks like this:

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10) in chart above, so basically ...
11) we go nowhere until 5/1
12) then we move for 2500-2525 in 3 weeks time
13) then starting 5/23 we drop straight to 2250 maybe even 2222
14) then double bottom by 6/12 FOMC
15) and then all the way to the top of the channel
16) that's all of it
17) again, not going to add anything to this until end of the Month
18) unless there's a move MEANINGFULLY outside the box

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2:24, blue route edit shows why this move is ANNOYING:

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a) in chart above,only the 4/29 and later need to hit well'
b) on the way there, it's just not worth the trouble everyday
c) to get it right

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1) in chart above, tactics here are obvious
2) short at 2390s and long 2360s
3) especially if price takes blue route to Monday
4) then (in theory) the next time price moves down and back up to 2392 WOULD BE A STRONG SHORT
5) bc there's 35+pts of value
6) and obviously go long the 2355 low would also be 35+pts of value
7) BUT THE PROBLEM IS it's not going to be a straight line...
8) I mean look at that mess to the left

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2:53 PM 2363 NEXT?

a) with the understanding that you are in a range bound situation that can flip back up WITHOUT WARNING
b) daily everything under 12 hour says 2363 should be next

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c) light blue was right, more like this:

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a) for chart above
b) maybe faster
c) hi-light is after midnight
d) I think before
e) and same reaction

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6:28, base case THROUGH TUESDAY now blue route in chart above

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SO THEN:

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a) this pretty much shut the door for a move above 2400
b) and makes this sideways thesis until 5/01 out right favorite
c) with no visible 2nd option absent "surprise event driven vol"

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7:25 PM ET, nope... it's not obvious we going that route.

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A) it's 2380.xx and it looks like yellow route is gaining
B) I hate this box... with a passion

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8:26 PM 2374.xx line held perfectly!

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10:10 PM ET 2412.XX LINE GOT DESTROYED!!

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a) I just found out now... AND W/O KNOWING THE REASON FOR THE SPIKE...
b) trend engine calls a tactical short (not a recommendation, just to for the record)
c) this is NOT IN ANY OF MY TREND MAPS
d) so probably an event driver

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e) hold on.. not yet on the tactical short
f) it has not hit outer bollinger

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g) at the same time... trend engine also says it does NOT have enough juice to get there
h) so that doesn't really help at all!

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i) so short 2444 if it hits, but it probably won't hit...
j) yeah, not a great call here by trend engine

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k) so for chart above, this is what I see in trend engine so I'm writing whatever notes I can before diving in deeper
l) there should be ONE MORE BOUNCE TO CREATE ANOTHER DOWN TREND LINE
m) closer to red line...
n) and this lead to 2382 with red line being the stop
o) now I gotta look into what in the world is happening

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10:38, Isreali counter-attack news is the driver
a) hold that thought
b) I need to see how much this thing has left in the tank

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3) continuing in chart above, 2425 if weak
4) 2434 if strong

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5) 10:49, it should really be NOW

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6) REMEMBER, SHORT 2444 IF YOU SEE IT
7) and it may be a bit higher... like 2447 or something

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8) but I would have harder time shorting 2430s VS war news
9) that would make me uncomfortable
10) but 2444+ is mathematical winner

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10:57, 2404.xx if turns down here, that's weak
a) then it's red line to 2382
b) that's pretty weak on war news

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c) we are coin flipping now
d) up and it's 2328, down and it's 2382

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11:03 PM ET, 2402.xx, and I'm going to close tonight with that
a) event drivers don't have to make sense trend wise AT FIRST
b) which means this one WILL GET SHOT DOWN
c) so my base case going to bed is 2382, 2422, and then all the way down to 2365
d) why?
e) because the trends ARE SO WRONG FOR THIS MOVE, mean reversion demand the bottom of the box
f) so that's it from me tonight

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g) in chart above, be aware that this event driven
h) so it doesn't have to make sense, chart above is best guess for the record
i) I'll deal with this after it settles down

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1) in chart above if we move down without this second leg to 2420s
2) THAT'S A VERY BEARISH DEVELOPMENT
3) and kind of a big problem

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1) for charts above
2) this is going to F with our 'sideways to FOMC' plans
3) how much F it will do is not quite obvious yet
4) and may not be obvious until this time next week

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12:04 2388.xx, odds still favor 2422 first, but you need a stop here
a) bc this move is supposed to go back down either way
b) BUT IT WOULD BE VERY WEIRD TO GO STRAIGHT DOWN
c) nevertheless you should be careful anyways

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12:28 AM, 2386.xx we are going back up and it might even stick
a) so the the math is getting into it's going to happen territory
b) but the delay here may turn out to be bullish
c) because it's going to make to the move up really hard to reverse down
d) in this situation
e) it's a rare one, but if micro trends wait for short term trends to turn
f) this next move is going to be very difficult for bears to knock back down
h) and may not stop at at 2422, there may be a third leg even higher

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i) so London opens 2 AM ET, and it's 12:36 AM
j) we should be up there before London opens and push it back down

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12:49 AM ET, 2383.XX, I saw the move to 79.xx (dirty AF, but manipulators going to manipulate)
a) stopped out
b) back in it
c) base case still going back up to 2420s
d) if I get stopped again, I'll go a third time, maybe even a fourth and a fifth
e) until I get there

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1:17 AM ET 2383.XX be careful here
a) they can get really dirty if they want to
b) so keep stops tight

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1:33 AM ET 2383.XX still here waiting for this turn.
a) I got a stop
b) and they not pushing me off this one
c) I'll wait til F-ing morning if I have to

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d) I think what we did wrong here... is moving the second leg in...
e) just bc it moves down early... doesn't mean it will move up early....
f) bc we had orginal time like this:

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1) in chart above, I gotta see it through this red line
2) my math is right, we should be back up to 2420s
3) so I have to see this one through

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4) I am right about this, it's supposed to be 2422
5) but I don't get why it's taking so long

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6) stopped out again

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1:51, third bullet, annoyed, but committed.

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2:04 AM ET just went max leverage at 79.5
a) 79 stop
b) and let's see what's up now

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c) raised that stop to 81 just now

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d) 82.25

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e) 83.5

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f) stopped out, and thinking

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g) entry 82.5

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h) 0DTE, 2385 call, basically 100:1 leverage

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2:30 am deleveraged and exit all longs, 2382

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a) something is so wrong about this
b) I think it can reverse down now
c) without the second leg
d) I can't be long until it beats that red line

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8:01 AM ET, Sorry, got tired of waiting and fell asleep. 😴

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8:58 at the Dr office with kid, haven't looked into trend charts. But I think it's a bear situation.

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9:08 AM, 2380.xx, and short but be very careful.
1) we never got that second leg
2) and thats a big bear sign in my opinion
3) but the twisting sideways have not stopped
4) so this sideways box is still ongoing
5) with bulls having one more bullet to prevent a deeper bear move

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9:19 while I wrote those notes from my phone, bears made 2373.
1) bulls need to use their last bullet here
2) or this thing can get nasty really fast
3) bc bears would have position to take this to 2355 and thats just the first move

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a) in chart above, it hasn't been this ugly looking for sometime
b) maybe a couple of days in January

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c) and that's a wrap for this post

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d) oh yeah, I don't have an opinion on what is next
e) mainly because would have to update it soon
f) so let's just take a break

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6:31 AM 4/20, AGAIN, I WAS TALKING ABOUT DAILY PRICE ACTION.
1. I have little doubt what macro and medium-long term prices should be.
2. This plays two ways, 4800 or 3600 over the course of 2025.
3. And because of the super long-term trends, it has to be 4800 UNTIL ITS NOT.
4. But I am aware that 99% of followers probably use my notes to day trade.
5. So I have to be mindful of the usefulness of my daily forecasts.
6. That's all that it is.

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7. There's basically four themes to strong forecasting (on any timeline).
8. In order of relevance, they are trend, pattern, volatility, and refresh rate.
9. I talked briefly about trend in closing notes yesterday.

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10. Pattern wise, my sideways to 5/1/ thesis in chart above is still base case
11. But we have high daily vol, but low medium term vol.
12. Translation is frequent zig-zags in a defined price level.
13. If trend, pattern and volatility together fail on daily accuracy, there's only one more factor, REFRESH RATE BASED ON SHORT TERM VOL.
14. Which means if daily zigzag stay frequent, then the updates of price maps must also INCREASE TO STAY RELEVANT.
15. In English, that means new price map 4-6 times a day.
16. That's all, really nothing else worth mentioning.

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17. Some guy said yesterday I'm guessing too much and the first thought to my mind was I need be careful how I use the word "guess" in my notes.
18. Yesterday's overnight response to Israel/Iran news where I kept trying to find "the second leg to 2422"...
19. ... is same system adjusted for "event driven high IMMEDIATELY volatility model".
20. That's what I meant by "best guess."
21. And the reasons are obvious, because news and event driven vol have a different set of rules FOR THE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME, like 8 hour window.
22. So there's only 2 legitimate concerns about this model.
23. The first is "all-time limits as adjusted for inflation".
24. That's a discussion on whether the final target should ever be higher than 1980 (year) high adjusted for inflation, which would be 3600 now, but maybe 4000 next year.
25. I take issue with that point of view bc precious metals are SPECULATIVE BY DEFAULT.
26. These are the same people who say precious metals are a speculative market.
27. But then use standard deviation averages FOR EVERYTHING to project gold prices while assuming 2025 is the same world as 1980.
28. And don't realize that those concepts are (philosophically-speaking) mutually exclusive.
29. The other issue is simply THE COST OF A HIGH REFRESH RATE.
30. These are the same people who don't understand who pays for the free stuff.

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31. the thesis hasn't changed but the range of the box has increased
32. above AND below
33. bulls might have one more attempt at 2422 but it's not obvious AT ALL
34. whatever the case maybe the sideways has become more reinforced
35. the window for bulls breakout is pretty much finished
36. the only move left for bulls to move up is simultaneously a bearish setup
37. which means spike/rugpull, lower spike, deeper rugpull
38. good luck with it

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39) think about it this way...
40) the difference between something easy to do and something difficult
41) is how much time does it take to get done
42) of all types of price action for gold this is the most difficult type
43) to get right daily because THE TRENDS DO NOT LINE UP EVEN A LITTLE BIT
44) and as soon as they start to something will change
45) but it's obvious we are waiting for FOMC

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46) so I started calling sideways as soon as price broke bull trend, 2 days into this move:

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a) in chart above, remember, EVERYONE was bullish ahead of the 17th
b) I didn't turn bullish until HOURS ahead of the blue line's break
c) and as soon price move under 2377, I started working on the sideways thesis (last draft)
d) on day 3, extended it PAST MAY 1ST FOMC, meaning that this trend should hold until MAY 2ND:

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e) without even asking, I can tell you that most regular people are bullish right now
f) that part is obvious why
g) what's not obvious?
h) go to tradingview landing page and search xauusd or gold
i) I promise you Im the only person calling it sideways past FOMC
j) I may be the only person calling SIDEWAYS AT ALL, and 5/2 is still 12 days out
k) go look for yourself
l) calling this sideways here, is difficult in itself
m) getting the daily swings right in this zone is is most difficult part in gold short forecast
n) difficult here MEANS THAT IT TAKES A LOT OF TIME, that's all

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o) in chart above from this Wednesday, I noted the possibility of a bull breakout
p) but FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY
q) however we just moved to 2417 ON WAR NEW DURING ELECTION YEAR OF INFLATIONARY PERIOD
r) AND COULD NOT MUSTER A SECOND LEG TO 2422 WHILE BEING MASSIVELY FAVORED TO DO SO
s) at the same time, trend and pattern is developing a spike/rugpull scenario
t) meaning it can move up, but first reaction will be similar to kiss of death
u) while there's 7 trading days between now and FOMC

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w) meanwhile early this week WE TESTED 43 YEAR TREND LINE 6 TIMES
x) so of course base case sideways
y) so that's a wrap for this post until 4/29 or so
z) because there's nothing else to talk about except detailing daily moves which takes too much time
1) so tactics should be same with wider tolerance
2) short near 2400 (with eye out for 1 more spike to 2422)
3) long near 2355
4) that's why it's a wrap

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11:02 PM ET, 4/21, 2370.XX, GRAY LINE BROKE AND?
a) looks like (right now) I took consensus out for a beat down
b) but be aware, there's only so much value in a side ways trend
c) while it looks like it move down a bit more
d) you're at the lower area of the box
e) so watch out for mean reversion

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f) as a reminder, the lower limit is 2355
g) I have a hard time believing bears can take it down under 2355
h) it would be the next leg after whatever bounce we get, and...
i) can't even tell if we've bottomed yet for this leg

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j) 11:32, I saw 2361.xx minutes ago, I think that's the bottom (I THINK, I DONT KNOW)
k) I covered this short AND IM LIGHTS OUT FOR TONIGHT
l) so I'll add notes in the morning

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11:38, my read of this situation...
m) center of gravity is 2382-2388
n) about 4-5 hours from now
o) but I am not up for it
p) goodnight

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q) 12:42 bulls need to show up at 64-65 check down or it can get ugly

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8:06, 2339.XX, just woke up, and ugly it was.
a) dead floor 2322
b) and I'm looking into this now

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c) in notes last night, I said that I didn't see bears getting under 2355 ...
d) until the second leg "after whatever bounce we get"
e) after bounce to 2373, I warned it would get ugly if bulls don't show up at 64-65
f) at 8:24 AM and 2344.xx
g) all I can say is the ugliness is not over for Monday, with bears aiming for 2318
h) but we approaching event time in a few minutes
i) all I can say is the check "up" ceiling is about 2357

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8:33 AM gotta go to Dr with my dad
j) base case for Monday is 257 check up and
k) that would raise dead floor to 2327
l) meaning that after 2327, bulls would push this all the way back up
m) but it's not going to be that fast this time

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n) if bulls fail to check up to 2357
o) and this runs down
p) then floor is between 2318 ND 2327
r) DEPENPENDING ON BEARS MOMENTUM
s) basically hard to say they can get seriously under 2322

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t) with ALL THAT SAID, the sideways base case doesn't change until it is obvious what NY AFTERMARKET CLOSE WILL BE
u) and on my phone, raw numbers say
v) that after bears run our if gas
w) this aftermarket close should be 2367

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THIS POST HAS ENDED HERE IS DRAFT 9-3: