#4-1 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

4 hours ago
WARNING - This is the second 11/06/23 CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for ICE/IDC XAUUSD spot gold ticker, follow up to #4. As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this is meant to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As always, when price moves against forecasts and the next one is not posted, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.

HEADER - This is the 15-min bar 2-day generic forecast for overall direction and shape for price action. Continuing from #4, this is almost the same chart with a gray path for "manipulated curve and oranges extrapolated several more times.

SUMMARY - Please read notes for #4, it's very short to understand where we are.

FRAME OF REFERENCE - Links for 5 of most recent posts are below here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference and most importantly, as the ground of our conviction.

IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU WIN - Want more accuracy or "around the clock" updates? Help me out by introducing my work to people you know ONLY BY WORD OF MOUTH. The more attention I have on this process, the more I will deliver. I need a strong rate of growth for followers to make this worth it. As it is, it's really not for me and I keep trying.

הערה:

6:55 PM ET, THE GRAY ROUTE IS OFFSET!!
a) I moved it it somehow
b) so it should be like this:

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c) if i get off work early, I'll repost it

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d) 8:00 PM ET, still at work and this thing keeps following oranges
e) why do I insist on bull routes?
f) bc the math says to do that
g) but we are within an hour or two of having to accept bear thesis
h) that sound so hard to say with the intermediate odds so bullish
i) but we have to go where the price is

הערה:

11/06 8:57 PM ET -- SCREW THIS, LET'S JUST GO LIVE
a) let's do what we know I can do
b) first, this chart is 9 min bars
\

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c) in chart above, I have extensions on black, blue and red
d) the bold path is expected price action
e) in this scenario like 85% of the times before it
f) black wave needs to make a double bottom on top of blue wave
g) at the same time, blue wave crosses over red wave
h) if this happens, we get a HARD SPIKE UP, with a second spike tomorrow or wed at the latest

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i) so in this chart:

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j) that's more like it
k) for this to play, and the odds favor it to now
l) price must follow blue and CANNOT CROSS UNDER ORANGE
m) I'll update when I get home in 25

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n) here's same chart in 1-min bar:

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9:26 PM ET NO FLOOR YET... setup gone

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10:12 PM ABSENT A MIRACLE SPIKE UP, WHICH ITSELF NEEDS A SETUP FOR ...
a) that would take at least 4-6 hours to "build that setup"
b) it's time to accept bear thesis
c) which means several things
d) but first price will be even weaker than chart at top
e) so it's time to think 1940, even 1930

הערה:

f) I hate that it's November 6th and bear thesis can't be eliminated
h) and with this move to 1930s coming, it is still very legit

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i) when I say bear thesis, I mean this:

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j) and that doesn't mean that a bull swing up hard is not possible
k) I'm just saying until there's a legit setup for bulls to swing up (and I know what that should look like)
l) it's bear thesis now until unproven

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m) and for those that disagree and ask how do we go from 8:2 bulls to full on bear thesis?
n) that's because of TODAY'S CLOSE AND THE REACTION TO THAT CLOSE
o) I said in previous post that we wanted a 1985 close and it's bad to close AT THE LOW
p) that still didn't seal the deal bc the swing setup to 2000 by midnight or 1AM was still live
q) that's all gone now, so it's 1970, 65, 54, 40, 30-something I can't see a floor until 1930-something
s) and with the way the economy is, we're still 14 days to FED MINUTES and that's a bit too long

הערה:

t) here is bear thesis again, I don't know if it will show:

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u) 12:06 AM ET, I'm going to bed
v) meanwhile several different looking moves right now
w) too tired to clean it up so FWIW here

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x) basically, just watch out for that bounce at 1965
y) goodnight

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z) zoom in minus the noise:

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z1) watch out for this bar here:

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1) in chart above:
2) the bold diagonal is the important trend here
3) and then that bar needs to break
4) the darkest orange is the same route in chart at top
5) whether that bar really breaks on Thursday not really sure

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6) should really be like this:

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7) that's a wrap for me

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8) if I'm not up and looking I can't see all the moves
9) so as a warning:

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10) this thing has enough juice to hit 1978

הערה:

8:00 AM - Really busy today, so I don't have anything to post right now. If I find some time, I'll clean up the bear extrapolations. That's it.

הערה:

a) 8:16 AM, some notes though
b) this drop took the most bearish way down
c) didn't hit 1978 when it could
d) didn't try to retest 1975
e) took only bounce at 1963-65 that black bar
f) so considering that massive gap a 1810-1845? some where down there
g) even without mapping bear routes
h) strategy should be
i) bullls HAVE TO prove they can stop the waterfall

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j) cotinuing at 8:31 AM ET, so big lines first:

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k) small lines:

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l) add 2 most likely immediate extrapolations for 30-hours out AND respective bollingers for the waves pushing down:

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m) this is 4-min bar with the noise:

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n) that black bar is HUGE RESISTANCE
o) so the spike to the black bar obvious
p) pick a spot where bulls turn and short, with TIGHT STOP AT:

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q) at whatever the turn is:

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r) doesn't matter where the turn is:

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s) that is base case strategy until 1932 or price breaks the channel

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t) for newbies, it's this channel, BUT MAKE SURE it has turned

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u) don't just guess use a tried and true method, mine is this (with regression wave support of course)

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9:42 AM ET, A SERIOUS NOTE ABOUT PREMIUM ACCTS!
1) I am not advertising this for TradingView
2) I am doing this because IT HELPS YOU SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH
3) and thanksgiving is coming up, they have a special deal every year, you can the whole year 300-400 whatever I forget
4) but WHY PAY IT...
5) if you have a tradingview account, that means you are probably risking money already
6) average american man risks $35,000 (LOSES) before he quits doing this (it's unreal)
7) premium accts give you HUGE FEATURES, but the one I love most (for live high frequency trading) is 1, 5, 10, 15 second bars
8) people are visual, you can't act on what YOU CAN'T SEE
9) AND SO MUCH happens in 60 seconds that if you can't see it, you are at A GIANT DISADVANTAGE
10) it's so useful, that it could make a losing trader into an even trader
11) an even trader into a profitable trader
12) and a profitable trader into a professional trader
13) you have to have it to believe it

הערה:

9:52 A NOTE ON THIS PART:

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a) in chart above, see where the waves twist?
b) it's saying that black route is MORE LIKELY than blue route
c) but once under 1960.5, blue would have upper hand (bc under the twist)

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d) BUT, none of that matters if you stick to STRAIGHT LINE DISCLIPLINE:

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e) so? just wait it out, rinse and repeat:

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11/07 10:21 AM ET SO EXTRAPOLATIONS FAVOR 1940 FLOOR
1) RIGHT NOW because this can change in several days
2) the floor for both bull/bear intermediate routes is 1940 with a STRONG BOUNCE TO 2010 AGAIN
3) AND ALL THIS BEFORE 11/20
4) that's all I know now
5) will get something out late tonight for tomorrow

הערה:

1:17 PM ET, WANTS TO DO THIS NOW:

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a) in chart above it's 1966, it wants 1974-78
b) if it's above 76, it's a strong short

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c) BUT that also means this push to 1940s will ultimately fail

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2:15 PM THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A STRONG PATTERN:

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a) for chart above, use common sense stops
b) otherwise ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR moving to 1960 by 8 PM ET
c) then bounce
d) then DECISION FOR 1976 OR 1950
e) that's the best I can do for today

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f) 2:42 PM ET, for reference you can replay chart at top
g) see? another mirror image, this time of the blue, which is from here:

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h) it's from #4, link is below

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i) 3:17 PM ET - SO I'VE BEEN THINKING how that had worked in the past
j) is pick the obvious route, run ratios and then flip it for the other side
k) but how do you define obvious?, what every day man would guess by just looking at it....
l) that would be bull route
m) that then leads us to this:

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THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS #4-2: