GOLD Medium-Term Short

24 בנוב׳ 2019

Seasonality and fair value point south for gold. Probably 1440 will hit this week and 1420 next. 1520 is max resis, short value is anything over 1500, but I have a SL set earlier for the TV audience. 1480 might be a decent soft reversal. That said, I wouldn't hold gold short for too long. Into December, we will really get to see if phase 1 happens. And even if it does, trade war is still a go with the HK rights bill getting veto-proof passage (trump will probably sign anyway). Black Friday will serve as a sentiment event for investors interested in consumption data (which is basically all big money investors); thus the end of the week could experience some volatility. Keep this in mind if you hold a position that over that period.

Remember, gold has fallen many times in the past over this season, which effectively means the upside surprise value is great to investors.