Between rally there always fake bear on stochastic

it's a top-down idea, I just want to show my view on stochastic
there is always a fake bear between rally or between 2 bottom
fake bear = red circle
real bottom = blue circle

that's why it's really important to see 2200$ or more (if really hit there) as signal to new higher high later

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weekly example

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daily

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on 1H the suspicious 1825 bottom or fake bear cleared IMO, just need to wait for 1890

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in 15min really hard because a lot of divergence (it also happen in 1h)

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conclusion 1
+ good to understand stochastic, making fake bear and a new HH without bullish divergence
+ only work using stochastic, no other indicators can reach the bottom as fast as stochastic
+ almost good on every TF

- not reliable to determine top or bottom (or trend reversal signal)
but can be used when a fake bear or real bottom failed to make a new HH
- divergence ruined the signal (the rally start not on bottom of stochastic)

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loks like 15TF not good for deep retrace down , so I wonder maybe it will show a downtrend

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monitoring 30min for now

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work on 5 min too

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4H update, add RSI to backtest it to see is there any correlation or not

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I wonder will see retrace down under 1860 or not
the chart say so but it could be ruined by 1920-1930 spike IMO

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5min looks bearish
but monday always ignore TA, I dont think it wise... especially rely on 5min TF

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15m really hard to predict

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m30 clear down trend but...
it's too premature to seek blue bottom while it possible red fake bear to achieve 1930 bullish target

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I think I find a way to determine which is red which is blue

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I just noticed 2 failed fake bears, this things not good...
1. fake bear usually always make a new HH
2. divergence and failed fake bear usually downtrend but it's wrong
3. could lead to a buyer trap (I want to argue just use SL+) but that just downgrade the signal as 50:50(up or down) which not good

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looks like SL+ is a must
backtest just showed more trap and sl hunt and not showed fake bear on 1H

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I will blacklist 1H TF for a while... and use 30min instead
but there is 1 thing must be accepted on 30min, the downtrend is there

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man just switch to 30min and find another problem should I try to double check with 15min TF?

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headache 15min, but at least it clear signal

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interesting I make a mistake on the last 15m chart

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rare pattern, it's new on this backtest... if true then still not bearish trend on 15m TF

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very fun watching 15min TF
new pattern again... showing both bull and bear signal, Im waiting!!!

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forget this analysis work on a bullish trend not a downtrend, now it is useless to mark blue and red for now

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yeah switching to 5min still down trend IMO so messed up in down trend

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why not reverse the dot to the top, not the bottom? not that easy I tried but not reliable

kind like big TF still bullish so small TF favor bullish signal not bearish signal

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5 min really weird, no double 2 blue dot as reversal signal (divergence)
no clear red dot or fake bear on last spike maybe must stay away from 5 min TF

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15min also no clear reversal signal
either I'm wrong with the dot or downtrend not valid to use the dot
I need strategy to see reversal signal, so that home work for now

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4H too premature to mark it as blue dot IMO

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IMO 4H still bearish but I will take note for now since RSI and stochastic lagged indicator (can change with spike) so the blue dot can become red dot (the pattern on RSI and stoch change due spike)

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surprisingly I see a new way to see a target, will backtest it later

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cannot use 5min TF as backtest not reliable