Weekly forecast - Potential evening star

So far, XAU/USD falls back to below the August 2020 - January 2021 trendline
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Today XAU/USD finally broke the minor trendline
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Potentially an evening star pattern on the daily timeframe
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The gold market is potentially gonna be wild in the next few days. I'm concerned about US lockdown breaking news.
Last year in March, Gold crashed $300 then rally $600.

Maybe the 4th of July will be the reason for the increasing covid cases in the US. The average Covid duration of incubation is from 5 to 7 days but can be as long as 14 days.
So until the end of July, there's a possibility of another US lockdown. If it happens, it's gonna shake the market.

Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price goes up to breakout and close above the August 2020 - January 2021 trendline
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