MQP 16E - THIS IS LOOKING REALLY INTERESTING. עבור FX_IDC:XAUUSD מאת Binary_Forecasting_Service

MQP 16E - THIS IS LOOKING REALLY INTERESTING.

HEADER - This is a continuation of posts in series 16. This replaces 16 A & B. While this what makes the most sense from a "total theory" point of view, it's a only at best 30% vs all other outcomes at this hour. Then again, the "sideways to July/August is roughly the same odds. I'm not sure this should even be favored. The main reason for my choosing this vs the "sideways to July/August" is the 1978 fractal.

SUMMARY - With time, I'll try to post the material that makes up this chart one-by-one. But this is also time I don't have. To sum it all up, it looks like we are about to bottom before the first box. Odds right now is 20-30%, depending how you look at it. IF WE NAIL THE FIRST BOX, odds of this move is at least 2 in 3, maybe 3 in 4. IF WE NAIL THE SECOND BOX, then this move (run all the way up) should be 3/4 or 4/5. I think I'm being super clear headed stating this.

DETAILS - Again, I'll post details one by one with time. Links for 16 A-B-C-D are below. PLEASE UNDERSTAND, at this point, going long mean HOLDING TO SEPTEMBER because we dont know what APRIL WILL ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE. That is to say, holding for 190 days is an excellent bet at 1920, but not great for 45-75 days (not terrible either, just nothing to write home about).

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NOTES FOR MOST RECENT CHART ABOVE
1) note the fractions for IRL and the bar size
2) this chart is 1 zoom vs chart right above it
3) since IRL is base 2X for its layers, left side goes 4-day to 2-day, right side goes 2-day to 1-day
4) for left chart, I didn't change the extension line colors to match the 2-day chart
5) but that's ok bc the ratio of colors are same
6) black is 1x, blue is 2x, red is 4x, dark gray is 8x, purple (or light blue, i can't tell) is 16x, orange is 32x, and light ray is 64x
7) first thing first in the chart right above, if we are contrasting...
8) the correction from 1920 to 1050 is 46%
9) the correction from 200 to 100 is 50%, this isn't trivial
10) because the that wave that marked "YOU ARE HERE" is in a weaker relative position to its 2x and 4x waves compared to current fractal

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11) but in the zoomed in chart, the turn position (it's on its 5th line in the orange wave) is the same in both charts
12) further more, the purple/light blue wave in the zoomed in chart is ALSO WEAKER
COMPARED TO CURRENT FRACTAL
13) bc it was under its 4X wave, the light gray wave
14) but right now, it's OVER
15) SAME GOES FOR THE DARK GRAY WAVE, IT'S STRONGER NOW TOO
16) where it differs is right now THE RED WAVE IS WEAKER THAN VS 1978.

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17) this is similar too what I expounded as "the blue wave" sevearal posts ago
18) my hypothesis that it needs to "CATCH UP" bc it's WAY OUT OF POSITION STILL is STILL A VALID ONE from that analysis, we go on from here

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19) so why wouldn't it be a "favored completely hands down", this forecast?
20) that involves the discussion in WHY THE RED WAVE GOT WAY OUT IN THE FIRST PLACE
21) that's real world event-driven fundamentals I don't talk about a lot
22) but will get into a bit later after this next chart

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1) for the chart above, you can see the massive spike in 1978 when the two red and blue circles line up
2) so essentially we would get something like that w/ a 2200 top for late May/June 3) ... and a 2240 top for late June after an in between correction

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1) for chart above, so there is my thesis simplified
2) I have May breakout at 30% or less (if all things remain the same, and they never seem to do)
3) I have August/September breakout at 30% or less
4) all other scenarios 60% or less
5) doesn't that add up to 120%?
6) NO, I SAID "OR LESS"

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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