HEADER - This is an update to PART 1C.
SUMMARY - I thought a great deal about my process over the weekend. I don't want to end this work because I made a mistake. So this chart cover the major outcomes I can see. Links to priors below.
DETAILS - The dark bear route is the favorite, BUT IT MUST FOLLOW THAT ROUTE CLOSELY TO REMAIN THE FAVORITE. Meaning if it takes that route to the first box, short the first box to the second box. The orange route is 2nd place right now. We should know ahead of November NFP, which is in first week of December. The third route is a big dog as of today, we will cross that bridge if we get there. This route listed as short because it's the favorite right now, based on EVERYTHING COMBINED. I realized over the weekend that I've have gotten to these moments before, and right course is to wait for the decision.
BTW - This is the only route worth trading until Feb 20, 2023.
END OF POST.