Bitcoin Daily Update (day 284)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “Liking the risk:reward on a stop entry at $3,299 with a stop loss at $3,551”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5


Patterns: Bear channel / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,216 | R: $3,327
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still supporting above the trendline
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0079%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below and trending down
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down in confluence with trendline
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish
Overall trend: Fully bearish
Volume: Still waiting for next spike to be ~ 2X MA
Candlestick analysis: Lowest daily close of 2018
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan still roughly following 9 MA and Kijun in line with 33 MA.
TD’ Sequential: Today closed a r1 and the next candle quickly because a r2 < r1 | However we are also on a C13.
Visible Range: Still hasn’t tested high volume node at $2,850. Would that be able to provide support after we consolidated so closely above?
Price action: 24h: -4.1% | 2w: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,693 | Bottom band at $3,058
Trendline: Bear channel
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $4,059
RSI: Sticking to 30, trying to decide where it will move next. Retest 50 or rest 15?
Stochastic: Looks like it is getting stuck at the bottom
Last Day Rule: $3,641 has held very nicely, failing to even get a setup day.

Summary: Watching $3,200 support very closely. When it looked like it was breaking down we got a sharp reversal for a darth maul type candle on the 1h. That is something I got very used to seeing at we tested $6,000 - $6,200 support. As soon as it looked like it was breaking down we would quickly reverse.

However, that candle failed to provide a bounce and now it looks like we are going for another $3,200 retest. If we test it three separate times today then I would be viewing as very likely to breakdown this time around.

If it doesn’t then I will be watching the trendline closely which waits at $3,375. Due to how bearish the MA’s are I am fully expecting that area to hold strong as resistance.