BTCUSD / After 2x profit swings - still waiting for the move!
The previous move down was NOT the market move.
We are still trading in the zone.
The previous move down was only a gradual decline to retest local support within the current trading zone (roughly 8500-9000).
So, what did that tell us?
1) We still dont have enough bearish momentum to expect a full down trade.
2) If what just happened WAS the bearish move, then we are actually showing very weak bearish momentum which could be flipping bullish.
3) We should exit any short position in a swing-low to support, so that we: 1) eliminate risk of losing the trade on the swing back up; 2) book profit; and 3) allow ourselves risk-free to re-analyze market again later for the next trade.
So my previous posts showed my trades. I always show my trades, unlike most people on here who just post junk and take no position. If I'm wrong I want it to be 100% transparent before-hand. I cant always be right and only an idiot would think they could anyway.....
My previous trades were 2 short positions which did not achieve TPs, but did achieve swing-low and exited for small penny-profit (3.07% and 4.12% respectively). Nothing to get excited about, but following the above strategy, at least continue to book profit and eliminate risk of loss. Which is what I believe trading should focus on.
Right now?
I am not in a trade, but I am looking at the trade in the chart above to short again between 9090 and 9266.
The longterm 2019/2020 ATH trendline is coming down (red line) and is closing in on 9300-9350 area, so I would put my orders in staggered below this line, as I do not expect there to be enough strength to even wick above it at this point. (On April 30th, you can see the first time since 2019 that this trendline even got wicked into, although it was very quickly rejected and hammered down by nearly $1000 within hours! EG: HUGE resistance layer!)
With all the pre-halvening FOMO buy pressure already booked in, I dont see us being able to challenge that trendline again.
With all the resistance layers above, unless we are breaking out by wednesday (6th May) market close, then I will be fully SHORT.
Right now I'm marking this NEUTRAL because I am open to either short or long.
Actually, last night, when we were at 8500, I was about to go long, but I was so tired and wanted to go to bed I didnt do it. I would have had to wait for another 2-4h candle prints to confirm support swing, and didnt want to do that, even though I was 90% sure I'd get at least a 8600->8900 swing trade in....
Sometimes you need to sleep in peace without worrying about trades rather than book some small profit!
100% glad I did. Had a great nights sleep :)
We are still trading in the zone.
The previous move down was only a gradual decline to retest local support within the current trading zone (roughly 8500-9000).
So, what did that tell us?
1) We still dont have enough bearish momentum to expect a full down trade.
2) If what just happened WAS the bearish move, then we are actually showing very weak bearish momentum which could be flipping bullish.
3) We should exit any short position in a swing-low to support, so that we: 1) eliminate risk of losing the trade on the swing back up; 2) book profit; and 3) allow ourselves risk-free to re-analyze market again later for the next trade.
So my previous posts showed my trades. I always show my trades, unlike most people on here who just post junk and take no position. If I'm wrong I want it to be 100% transparent before-hand. I cant always be right and only an idiot would think they could anyway.....
My previous trades were 2 short positions which did not achieve TPs, but did achieve swing-low and exited for small penny-profit (3.07% and 4.12% respectively). Nothing to get excited about, but following the above strategy, at least continue to book profit and eliminate risk of loss. Which is what I believe trading should focus on.
Right now?
I am not in a trade, but I am looking at the trade in the chart above to short again between 9090 and 9266.
The longterm 2019/2020 ATH trendline is coming down (red line) and is closing in on 9300-9350 area, so I would put my orders in staggered below this line, as I do not expect there to be enough strength to even wick above it at this point. (On April 30th, you can see the first time since 2019 that this trendline even got wicked into, although it was very quickly rejected and hammered down by nearly $1000 within hours! EG: HUGE resistance layer!)
With all the pre-halvening FOMO buy pressure already booked in, I dont see us being able to challenge that trendline again.
With all the resistance layers above, unless we are breaking out by wednesday (6th May) market close, then I will be fully SHORT.
Right now I'm marking this NEUTRAL because I am open to either short or long.
Actually, last night, when we were at 8500, I was about to go long, but I was so tired and wanted to go to bed I didnt do it. I would have had to wait for another 2-4h candle prints to confirm support swing, and didnt want to do that, even though I was 90% sure I'd get at least a 8600->8900 swing trade in....
Sometimes you need to sleep in peace without worrying about trades rather than book some small profit!
100% glad I did. Had a great nights sleep :)
עסקה פעילה:
shorting at 9290. SL 9366
the 2019/2020 downtrend line is going to be hitting around 9330 now, and going down every hour.
i dont think theres enough bull power to even hit the line, so it should be safe with a super tight SL
just shorting a small order 5btc because i want to actually sleep tonight and not think about it.....
hope it fills.
TPs will be 8300 and 8100 then 7800 like originally planned.
will watch market and manually exit if support bounces at 8500.
you could short 9100+ level too, if you want higher risk.
the R:R is still 4+ if we hit TP1 and much higher if TP2 and TP3 are hit. still worth it imo!
the 2019/2020 downtrend line is going to be hitting around 9330 now, and going down every hour.
i dont think theres enough bull power to even hit the line, so it should be safe with a super tight SL
just shorting a small order 5btc because i want to actually sleep tonight and not think about it.....
hope it fills.
TPs will be 8300 and 8100 then 7800 like originally planned.
will watch market and manually exit if support bounces at 8500.
you could short 9100+ level too, if you want higher risk.
the R:R is still 4+ if we hit TP1 and much higher if TP2 and TP3 are hit. still worth it imo!
עסקה פעילה:
BINGO!
Order 1 filled 9190
Order 2 filled 9290 as I was writing this!
SL above 9390 buffer zone, trendline, and horizontal resists
this looks like a fake pump!
volume is quite low.
if FOMO pre-halvening picks up then np, can reverse and long to 9.6k
order books with massive sells coming through though.
going to bed now!
gl traders!
Order 1 filled 9190
Order 2 filled 9290 as I was writing this!
SL above 9390 buffer zone, trendline, and horizontal resists
this looks like a fake pump!
volume is quite low.
if FOMO pre-halvening picks up then np, can reverse and long to 9.6k
order books with massive sells coming through though.
going to bed now!
gl traders!
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני:
upward volume INCREASING in last few hours.
so i exited break-even 9290 and small loss.
it is dropping right now - below 9300 area - but it does look like it will continue buying. safer to get out of this trade and watch.
so i exited break-even 9290 and small loss.
it is dropping right now - below 9300 area - but it does look like it will continue buying. safer to get out of this trade and watch.
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני:
just updating again as i wont be updating this post anymore:
CLOSE YOUR SHORT
if you followed this trade - you can close for actually a small profit if you do it now.
short entries here were 9190, 9290, 9340
its still dipping down to test 9200 support so you can actually close this for profit. id do something like 9231 just to be sure to get rid of it.
we are still bullish and going to explore areas above.
this trade is closed and marked as LOSS.
CLOSE YOUR SHORT
if you followed this trade - you can close for actually a small profit if you do it now.
short entries here were 9190, 9290, 9340
its still dipping down to test 9200 support so you can actually close this for profit. id do something like 9231 just to be sure to get rid of it.
we are still bullish and going to explore areas above.
this trade is closed and marked as LOSS.
heavy resistance pushing it back down, but it already printed a 2h candle closing above it.
luckily this resistance layer pushed us all the way back down far enough that we could have closed for about 0.3% profit.
i closed manually above that. took about 0.3-0.4% loss.
totally fine with me and now safe out of the trade.
i also bought ETH on the downswing.
will probably recoup the loss on BTC within the hour.
altcoins started reacting and surging along with BTC on the last 2h candle, so that was another bullish signal to get out of the short.
looks like we're heading to 9.4k and more probably 9.6k!
hopefully i just didnt close a perfectly good short but i am getting off the computer now and getting some sleep! :)
mark this trade as a LOSS! (break-even IMO counts as a loss!)