XL - Blood In The Streets 🩸

Its carnage for XL down 13% today and now 91% fall from the top.

It certainly is blood-in-the-streets!

But hang on a minute - isn't that the time to buy? 🤔

This sell off appears to be a 5th wave selling climax of the trend since June.

And a 1:0.618 ABC that projects to $3.04 from the top.

If correct there should be an X wave short squeeze to follow.

If we assume the bottom is in this area; then an X wave should take price up to hit the 0.5 fibonacci retracement.

Commonly it will retrace further than the lower degree B wave that sits at $9.64.

In addition - the Weekly RSI is oversold for the first time in XL history.

All in all this looks ripe for a reversal.

Price could easily continue to sell off and overshoot the 0.618 marker and also I could be wrong and price will continue to the 1:1 @ $1.49 so I will be looking to see if it anchors to the fib and exits the pitchfork.

And then I think most likely is a reversal up to 0.618 to top around $14 where there is significant resistance.

Not advice.

הערה:

Bit of a bounce as you'd expect after a selling climax, but price needs to escape this channel and the pitchfork for a reversal.

הערה:

XL currently tied to the median line. Until it makes some progress east, this is a dangerous name.

הערה:

XL is now a name i'm watching closely and going in a bit deeper on the chart:

I think it may be now printing a 1:0.618 (1,3,4) minute wave 5 that will overshoot past higher degree fibs and complete a selling climax in the area of $2.57.

Notice that price formed a wicked fakeout - out of the channel I highlighted previously, to then continue to impulse down. That fakeout I think is XL's rather bizarre wave 4 fractal and I have circle both minute and minor wave 4 fakeouts for reference.

If I'm confident in the selling climax I will sell OTM LEAP puts to take advantage of high implied volatility and later use my puts to pay for any calls I buy as volatility subsides moving into accumulation.