Oil/Gold Short Setup: Inverted Cup & Handle (XLE/GLD)

9 ביוני 2023

After a steep decline in XLE/GLD, the chart has now formed the highlighted cup & handle.
Combine this with the observation that CPI YoY & Core PCE YoY (USCCPI) are in strong declining trends, which historically correlates negatively with oil (and oil-related equities) and positively with gold.

Executing on this idea: use a lower-vega strategy:

1. Low (2x max) leverage
   
2. Short XLE: directly short sell the shares, or buy inverse ETF (DUG, ERY).
   
3. Long GLD: Just buy GLD, or go 2x with UGL. Make sure that it balances your XLE short after accounting for leverage.
   

9 ביוני 2023

הערה

(**Why low vega**: VIX seems to be suppressed at this time, which means that even if the price performs to target, your options strategy might severely underperform b/c the expected IVOL bump fails to materialize.)

26 ביולי 2023

הערה

I'm closing out this trade b/c oil crossed my stops.