A top in sovereign bonds.

23 בפבר׳ 2020

ZB1!

As $13 trillions of debt are trading at a negative yield worldwide and even 10 years US Treausury Notes are trading at a negative real yield , this contrarian trade is completely vulnerable to further central banks action. BUT.



Looking at a long term chart of long term US yields, it just happens that it exhibits a quite clear falling wedge pattern and that we are, right now, at inflection point: either yields go up or we'll have a breakout to the downside, with the possibility of having even nominal negative interest rates in the US. I still think that that won't happen, so I'll take my chances in shorting bonds with a stop loss above the pick of July 2019.