ARDO - Adaptive Regression Deviation Oscillator (v2.4.6)

ARDO – Adaptive Regression Deviation Oscillator (v2.4.6)
ARDO (Adaptive Regression Deviation Oscillator) quantifies deviation of price structure from a regression-based equilibrium baseline using adaptive moving-average spreads. It combines percentile-normalized distance, linear-regression slope, and dynamic gradient scaling to reveal trend extension, exhaustion, and regime shifts—offering a structural view of trend integrity and mean-reversion timing beyond traditional momentum oscillators. It is designed to help you answer two questions:

• Where are we in the regime? (extended, neutral, or reversal-prone)
  
• Is this a “trade” environment or a “stand aside” environment? (Gate PASS vs Gate BLOCK / drift)
  

ARDO is best used as a context + timing framework, not a standalone entry/exit system.

What you see in the ARDO pane

1) Spread A (% vs baseline)
Primary “timing” spread (default: stepline). Spread A is colored by a 4-state maColor model:

• GREEN: above baseline and strengthening
  
• ORANGE: above baseline but weakening
  
• RED: below baseline and weakening
  
• GRAY: below baseline but improving
  

2) Spread B (% vs baseline)
Secondary “context” spread (default: columns). Same 4-state color model as above, often used to confirm or filter Spread A behavior.

3) LinReg (slope-gradient)
A LinReg line fit to a selected source (Spread A / Spread B / Spread A+B). ARDO applies a slope-magnitude gradient (opacity/intensity) to visualize regime:

• Stronger slope magnitude = stronger directional regime
  
• Fading / low slope magnitude = drift / dead-zone (lower edge, choppy conditions, or end-of-move)
  

4) Tier zones (Q0–Q2, H2–H4)
ARDO classifies LinReg values into percentile tiers (extremes and mid-tiers). These tiers can be rendered as:

• Background regions, or
  
• Zero-line marker circles (“MK …” plots)
  

Important: Background colors do not export. The “MK Q0 … MK H4” series are emitted so you can reconstruct tier membership in CSV/backtests.

5) Gate PASS / Gate BLOCK

• A compact “permission layer” that can require:
  
• Spread A > LinReg
  
• EMA Fast > EMA Slow
  
• Minimum Spread A threshold
  
• Minimum absolute LinReg slope
  

Use Gate PASS to focus on higher-quality conditions; use Gate BLOCK as a “do nothing / reduce size” warning.

Key settings (what they change)


Tier Mode

• Standard: symmetric cut structure (general purpose)
  
• Asymmetric: separate tuning for highs vs lows (often better when upside and downside behavior are not symmetric)
  

Tier Population

• All Bars (LinReg): tiers represent the full LinReg distribution
  
• Pivots Only: tiers are computed from pivot events only (can tighten “extreme” definition and change how frequently zones appear)
  

Render Mode

• Background: easiest to read visually
  
• Zero-line Markers: best for export/backtesting workflows (MK series)
  

Gating options

• Turn on/off each rule independently; adjust thresholds to match symbol volatility and timeframe.
  

Color overrides

• Optional per-state color customization for Spread A, Spread B, and LinReg (4-state).
  

Alerts included (v2.4.6)

ARDO exposes named alerts you can use for automation or review, including:

• Gradient / regime alerts (HIGH vs LOW slope-magnitude regimes; regime shift transitions)
  
• Color-state changes (Spread B → GREEN/ORANGE/RED/GRAY; LinReg state changes)
  
• Tier entry alerts (LinReg entering key tiers such as Q0/Q1/H3/H4)
  
• Structural primitives (Bullish A > B, Bearish A < B, Gate PASS/BLOCK, crosses of 0, etc.)
  

How to use (practical workflow)

• Anchor timeframe (65m or Daily): identify regime (tiers + gradient) and whether you should be aggressive or defensive.
  
• Execution timeframe (5m/1m): time entries using Spread A/B structure and Gate PASS, aligned with the anchor regime.
  
• Avoid forcing trades in drift: fading gradient + mid/low-edge tiers often marks “dead-zone” conditions.
  

Notes / limitations

• ARDO is a context engine: it describes regime and location, not guaranteed direction.
  
• Tier thresholds are distribution-based and will vary by window/timeframe.
  
• Always apply your own risk management; this script is not financial advice.