Chobotaru Indicator V1

2 באפר׳ 2021

Now can be used by everyone.

Chobotaru Indicator has two functions:

1. Probability cloud, giving the probability of stock or future to move to a certain price.
2. Help traders understand where to take profit and where to put a stop-loss.

You don’t need knowledge about options trading, this indicator is for all traders/investors.

What does the indicator do?

The indicator is based on the partial differential equations from the mathematical model of options, the Black-Scholes model. Using these equations and market parameters the indicator shows on the chart the probability that the stock/future will touch a certain price until a specific date.

How the indicator does it?

The algorithm solves the partial differential equations using the following values:

Instrument price - The current price of the stock or futures contract

The interest rate – default zero – can be found by searching in google: “U.S. Department of the treasury daily yield curve rates”, Use the 3-month value. This value has a low impact on the model so you only need to update it when there is a major change in the percentile. (Example, in January 2021 the 3 months “risk-free rate” is 0.08, you can enter 0 in the indicator.

Days to expire (minus trading holidays) – You need to choose an option and take from it the other values that are needed. We recommend taking options that close to 30 days, but it is the user choice.
Example: On the 22 of January 2021, PLTR has an option that has 35 days left. The option will expire on the 26 of February 2021, if there are trading holidays like in this case, the user needs to subtract them, on the 15 of February we have Washington's Birthday, the input is 35-1=34.

Implied volatility - Annualized asset price volatility , specific as a positive decimal number. IV 10% => input 0.1, you can find it in the option chain, if you don’t know what it is, you can ask your broker where you can find it on your trading platform. For example, the IV of PLTR on the 22 of January 2021 is 120.67% the input is 1.2067

Date – Entering the date of entry.

How the indicator helps traders and how to use it?

After you enter the inputs correctly, you will see colorful lines, each line representing the probability for the price to touch there in the current market conditions until a specific date.

To see what percentage each color represents in the indicator press “style”. For example, red lines are a 50% chance for the price to touch there in the chosen period.
It also helps the trader to see what range the stock is expected to move and what range is not probable in this period (according to the options prices).
As you can see, the probability cloud is expanding. This is because as time passes, the probabilities of reaching far away prices are increasing.

Note: this indicator may not work on IPO