What It Does: - Displays a company's actual earnings vs. analysts' estimates over time - Shows "earnings surprises" - when actual results beat or miss expectations - Helps identify trends in a company's financial performance
How It Works: - Green bars: Positive surprise (earnings beat estimates) - Red bars: Negative surprise (earnings missed estimates) - Yellow line: Analysts' earnings estimates
Correlation with Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD): PEAD is the tendency for a stock's price to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for several weeks or months after the announcement.
Why It Matters: - Positive surprises often lead to upward price drift - Negative surprises often lead to downward price drift - This drift can create trading opportunities
How to Use It:
1. Spot Trends: - Consistent beats may indicate strong company performance - Consistent misses may signal underlying issues
2. Gauge Market Expectations: - Large surprises may lead to significant price movements
3. Timing Decisions: - Consider long positions after positive surprises - Consider short positions or exits after negative surprises
4. Risk Management: - Be cautious of reversal if the drift seems excessive - Use in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis
Key Takeaways: - Earnings surprises can be fundamental-leading indicators of future stock performance, especially when correlated with analyst projections - PEAD suggests that markets often underreact to earnings news initially - This indicator helps visualize the magnitude and direction of surprises - It can be a valuable tool for timing entry and exit points in trades
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