Smart Trade Decision

לפני 21 שעות

Smart Trade Decision (STD)

Smart Trade Decision (STD) is a multi-layered market analysis and trade-grading system designed to help traders make clear, disciplined decisions in real time.
Rather than relying on a single indicator, STD evaluates context, structure, momentum, volatility, volume, and higher-timeframe alignment — then translates all of that into a simple, actionable outcome.

This script is built for intraday and swing traders who want confirmation across multiple dimensions without blocking signals prematurely.

Core Philosophy

Fire everything. Weight later. No blocking.

STD allows all signals to express themselves, then weights and grades them, avoiding the common trap of over-filtering and missed opportunities.

Indicator Architecture
🔹 Tier-0 — Market Context & Risk

Liquidity sweeps and false break detection

Session timing awareness (early / optimal / late)

Compression duration risk

Produces a context bias: Allow / Restrict / High Risk

This tier never blocks signals — it only adjusts confidence.

🔹 Tier-1 — Market State Engine

Structural Context Engine (trend vs balance)

Volatility regime detection (expansion vs compression)

Efficiency and range behavior

Defines whether the market is trending, rotating, or compressed.

🔹 Tier-2 — Signal Scoring Engine

Three independent systems contribute to a unified score:

ASTE – Adaptive structure & trend alignment

RASE – RSI-based structure, momentum, and execution

MSRE – Momentum, regime, and execution confirmation

Each module scores independently and is combined into a directional grade (C → A+).

🔹 Tier-3 — Confirmation & Failure Detection

EVR (Effort vs Result) to penalize high effort / low outcome moves

VSRE (Volume Structure Regime) to confirm participation and intent

Tier-3 enhances strong setups and reduces confidence during hidden weakness.

🔹 Higher Timeframe Bias (3× TF)

A non-blocking higher-timeframe trend weight adds contextual alignment without suppressing valid lower-timeframe trades.

Final Output

STD produces:

Final Buy / Sell / Do Nothing decision

Confidence-weighted grades (C, B, A, A+)

Unified background context (green / red intensity)

Clear entry markers (size reflects strength)

Plain-language decision table

Multi-timeframe trend map

Everything is designed to answer one question:

“Should I act right now — and how confident should I be?”

How to Use

Best suited for intraday to short-term swing trading

Works on all liquid markets (indices, futures, forex, crypto, stocks)

Use grades and context together — not signals in isolation

High grades in aligned context = best conditions

“Do Nothing” is a valid and intentional outcome

Important Notes

This is an analysis and decision-support tool, not financial advice

No repainting logic is used

All signals are generated in real time

Designed to reduce emotional and impulsive trades

לפני 16 שעות

הערות שחרור

🔄 Change Log & Design Rationale (Updated Version)

This update transforms the script from a pure signal generator into a daily trade-ready decision engine, specifically optimized for naked option buyers operating intraday while respecting higher-timeframe institutional behavior.

1️⃣ Multi-Horizon Market Logic (Daily + Weekly Alignment)

What changed

Added Higher Timeframe (3× TF) structural bias using:

EMA trend alignment
Market Structure Break (MSD) logic
HTF logic adds weight only, it never blocks trades.

Why

Institutions build and adjust positions on weekly / monthly contracts
Retail traders execute daily
This change allows traders to understand:

“Am I trading with or against bigger money?”

Daily trades now occur inside a higher-timeframe narrative, not in isolation.

2️⃣ Tier-0 Context Engine (Risk-First Design)

What changed

Tier-0 explicitly classifies every session as:
ALLOW
RESTRICT
HIGH RISK

Late session, liquidity sweeps, and prolonged compression are flagged.

Why

Naked option buyers are most vulnerable during:
Liquidity hunts
Late-day fake breakouts
Time decay traps

This layer controls WHEN trading is allowed, not direction.

3️⃣ Extreme-Only Location Logic (Buyer Safety Upgrade)

What changed

A-grade and A+-grade trades are now allowed ONLY at:
Lower extreme → BUY
Upper extreme → SELL

Mid-range trades are downgraded or filtered.

Why

Naked option buyers require:

Maximum convexity
Minimum decay
Entries now occur where risk-reward is asymmetric, not random.

4️⃣ Volatility Permission Layer (India VIX)

What changed

Added India VIX Expansion Filter

Trades are penalized when:

VIX is falling
Intraday volatility is stalling

Why

Option buyers need expanding volatility

This prevents trades during:

IV crush
Slow grind markets

Breakouts with confirmed structure can still override the penalty.

5️⃣ Market Structure Break Validation (MSD Engine)

What changed

Added a non-repainting MSD Break Engine

Tracks:

Break
Follow-through
Failure

Why

Prevents buying tops / selling bottoms

Confirms whether price is:

Expanding (good for buyers)
Being absorbed (bad for buyers)

6️⃣ Supply & Demand Location Awareness (No Signals)

What changed

Added Supply & Demand zones as a context filter only
No entries are generated from zones
Zones only affect confidence scoring.

Why

Buyers must avoid:

Buying into supply
Selling into demand

This helps distinguish:

Break + continuation
Break + absorption

7️⃣ Final Scoring & Risk Tiering System

What changed

All engines feed into a final composite score

Scores are converted into Risk Tiers:

C → Informational
B → Tradable
A / A+ → High-conviction

Why

Traders no longer ask “Is there a signal?”
Instead they ask “Is this worth risking premium today?”

8️⃣ Trade Permission Logic (Explicit & Transparent)

What changed

Trades are allowed only when:

Tier-0 = ALLOW
Risk Tier ≥ B
VIX conditions are buyer-friendly

Why

Prevents overtrading
Forces discipline
Aligns with everyday trading, not just best-case setups

9️⃣ Visual & UI Improvements (Trader-Friendly)

What changed

Tiny labels and tables to reduce chart clutter
Unified background reflects overall alignment
Decision table uses plain English

Why

Script is usable during live markets
No cognitive overload
Designed for fast decision-making

🔑 Summary

This update:

Does not increase signal frequency
Does increase signal quality
Converts the script into a daily decision framework
Explicitly protects naked option buyers from:
Low volatility
Poor locations
Institutional traps

לפני 15 שעות

הערות שחרור

Just a change in script where user can choose the VIX of the market being traded in setting