Strategy Myth-Busting #13 - MultiEMA+BXTrender - [SP/MYN]

7 בפבר׳ 2023

#13 on the Myth-Busting bench, we are automating the "I Found The Highest Win Rate 15 Minute Scalping Trading Strategy Ever" strategy from "TradeIQ" who claims to have backtested this manually and achieved 410% profit over 100 trades within 6 months on Natural Gas with 79 Wins / 21 Losses with an astounding 3.96% Max Drawdown.

It was quite challenging emulating the same subjective EMA pullback logic along with the dependent sequencing of events necessary to enter a trade and we might improve on this to make it better in the future. Super kudos to spdoinkal who helped with this strategy. If you have ideas on how this could be improved on, would love to hear about them.

As is, we were unable to substantiate similar results to what was manually backtested by TradeIQ, we do however see potential here. Given some optimizations and improvements to the the entry logic accommodating for a wider more variable margin after pullbacks reestablish above/below the fast EMA we think the performance of this strategy could certainly be improved upon. So not sure if we have totally myth busted this completely at this point in time.

This strategy uses a combination of 2 open-source public indicators:
3 EMA's (Trading View Internal)
B-Xtrender by Puppytherapy

Three separate (21), (89) and (200) EMA's are used as a means to confirm and keep entry out of ranged markets. When the 3 EMA's are all clumped up together with no distance it's indicative of a flat or ranged market. This is then used in conjunction with B-XTrender as a means to detect the trend direction. B-XTrender which is a trend following indicator originally published in the IFTA Journal by Bharat Jhunjhunwala. It uses both a short and long term lengths along with a compound EMA used as a means to smooth and sample trend direction.


Trading Rules
15 min candles but other lower time-frames
Stop Loss on previous swing high/low
No Take Profit, Exit on new red/green circles from BX-Trender

Long
EMA Green (21) on top, White (89)in middle and red (200) on bottom and there is distance between EMA's need to be spaced, otherwise in a ranged market
Price action must pull back into 89 EMA (White line) either close or touching it.
Once pullback occurs wait for BX Trender to issue a new green circle and BX Trend line must be green and above 0
Price action must also pull up back above the (Green Line) EMA 21

Short
EMA Red (200) on top, White (89) in middle and Green (21) on bottom and there is distance between EMA's need to be spaced, otherwise in a ranged market
Price action must pull back into 89 EMA (White line) either close or touching it.
Once pullback occurs wait for BX Trender to issue a new red circle and BX Trend line must be red and below 0
Price action must also pull up back below the (green Line) EMA 21

If you know of or have a strategy you want to see myth-busted or just have an idea for one, please feel free to message me.