Americana Crypto Retail FOMO Index

Retail FOMO Index

Overview

The Retail FOMO Index is a sentiment indicator designed to help identify when retail investors are piling into the crypto market — often a sign that the market may be approaching overheated conditions. Historically, periods of extreme retail enthusiasm have coincided with local and macro tops, making this a useful tool for gauging market temperature.

What It Measures

This indicator combines two real-time data sources to create a composite "FOMO score" scaled from 0 to 100:

Coinbase Premium (50% weight)

This measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT). When US retail investors are aggressively buying, Coinbase often trades at a premium to other exchanges. A rising premium suggests increased retail demand, while a negative premium can indicate selling pressure or reduced interest.

Coinbase Stock Volume (50% weight)

This tracks the trading volume of COIN (Coinbase's stock on NASDAQ) relative to its recent average. When retail interest in crypto surges, Coinbase stock volume tends to spike as both crypto traders and traditional investors react to market momentum. The indicator calculates a Z-score to identify when volume is unusually high or low compared to its norm.

Settings

The indicator includes adjustable parameters:

• Weights: Adjust the balance between Coinbase Premium and COIN Volume if you find one component more relevant
  
  
• Lookback Period: Controls how much historical data is used for normalization (default: 50 periods)
  
  
• Smoothing: Reduces noise in the final output (default: 7 periods)
  
  
• Threshold Levels: Customize the boundaries for each zone
  
  
• Display Options: Toggle component lines and background fills on/off
  

Important Notes

• The COIN volume data begins in April 2021 (Coinbase IPO), so the indicator does not have data prior to that date
  
  
• The Coinbase Premium is calculated using BTC regardless of what asset chart you apply it to — BTC tends to be the leading indicator for broad retail sentiment
  
  
• This indicator works best on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes
  
  
• This is a sentiment tool, not a trade signal — use it alongside your existing analysis to add context