Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
============================================
Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
============================================
If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
[i]price
High Volume Price Levels x3This script detects recent huge volume areas to help you finding out good support and resistance levels.
For each of the 3 periods (defaults : 100, 200, 500) a new line will be drawn from the last time the volume amount exceeded n% (default 99%) of the highest volume on the same period, to the next occurence.
Most of time, these lines represent strong support and resistance levels which can be helpful in your technical analysis.
Options:
Volume trigger level: represents the minimum % of the highest volume within the given period on which you want to draw a new price level. (But higher this % is, stronger the levels will be)
Periods: The reference periods for high volume detection.
Show period: Enable/Disable the use of any period.
Period Color: Select a color correspondig to each period.
Show current levels only: Disable drawing of previous levels, to display current levels only.
Extend last level: Extend current lines to right/left/both or none sides of your chart.
Notes:
Sometimes, the last detected level from every periods can be the same at the same moment. In this situation, you'll only see one or two of the lines instead of three.
I'd like to figure out how to continuously draw every interesting levels without making the chart unreadable. Of course this script will be updated if I find a good way to do it.
Feel free to suggest any improvements/modifications.
Example:
WhaleCrew Crypto ArbitrageVisualizes the price difference (deviation) off BTC/ETH across multiple exchanges (Spot and/or Perpetuals)
Spot prices are represented by circles, while perpetual prices are shown as crosses.
Spot:
Binance
FTX
Bitfinex
Coinbase
Perpetuals:
Binance
FTX
Bybit
BitMEX
Auto Price Action - Multi Time Frame [Mehrok]Auto Price Action - Volume Price and Spread - Multi Time Frame
Volume Price and Spread script generates important support and resistance levels basis activity happening in price, volume and candle spread. The basic idea has been taken from concepts of VSA which underlies that weakness appears in uptrend and strength in downtrend. Script will try to find candles which have volume higher then average and candle spread.
Underlying logic:
Script generates significant high's as resistance and lows as support basis activity happened on volume , price and candle spread. Multi Time Frame gives ability to find strong support and resistance levels on higher time frames and display on lower time frame chart.
Usage:
As it records and maintain important high and lows happening on candles till the time new levels are generated therefore generated price levels act as significant support or resistance. Higher the activity in volume , price and spread stronger that price level would act as support or resistance in future.
Script work on all time frame where volume information is available. In absence of volume information script would only generate optional levels and that too if activated.
PE BandPE Band is computed from the historical patterns of the Price Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio) for each individual stock. The advantage of the PE Band is its consideration for both the fundamental factor (i.e. profitability) and the historical trading pattern of a stock. But if you need to adjust to your favorite PE Band, you can still enter the PE figures in settings.
The use of PE Band is especially meaningful for listed companies, which have profitable track records. For a stock with stable earnings, its price tends to move within the PE Band. In other words, the stock price in one extreme tends move to the other extreme within the Band.
Profit Percentage TrackerThis script provides a quick and easy way to visualize profits in a chart, based on the given entry date and price.
Optionally, alerts can be sent when profits cross up the given " profit unit ".
In short:
Tracks how much profit one could take based on the input " entry date " and the input " entry price "
These inputs are interactive (www.tradingview.com)
Displays the result in a label on top of the last candle
(Optional) Sends alerts based on the given " profit unit ", that is: if ' 0.5 ' is given, then an alert is triggered every time the profit is raised by that number
(Be careful with low values, as TradingView could stop an alert if it triggers too much.)
For alerts to be displayed, a " script alert " must be created right after the script was added to the chart:
- www.tradingview.com
(Choose ' Profits ' as condition and ' Any alert() function call ')
Good to know: if you check " Notify on app ", alerts can be delivered directly to your phone:
i.imgur.com
Prerequirements :
The chart's timezone has to be set to " Exchange " (this is required in order to support the alert's logic):
- kodify.net
Never Going Back AgainDraws lines for each of up to 500 prices that have never been revisited at the present moment in time, as time progresses these levels may or may not hodl.
Adaptation of "Never Look Back Price" originally described by Timothy Peterson in his research paper entitled "Why Bitcoin's Price Is Never Looking Back".
For more information see: static1.squarespace.com
Dividend Yield & Dividend Growth Rate (Most Accurate)In this indicator it shows the dividend yield in green line and dividend growth rate in blue area.
Currently our dividend yield calculation is the most accurate in TradingView.
Dividend growth rate is the annualized percentage growth rate experienced by dividends of a given stock over 5 years period of time.
Many established companies have sought to regularly increase dividends paid to investors.
Gearing RatioEach company uses a different method to calculate their gearing ratio in financial quarterly report or annual report.
The best way to compare each other is to use the same calculation.
In this version we have 2 calculation method, you change this from the setting.
1. Net gearing ratio (default setting)
2. Gearing ratio
Silen's Financials P/E & P/S[x10] RatesThis script aims to give a better visualization of P/E and P/S rates compared to the build-in "Price to earnings ratio" and "Price to sales ratio" in the "Financials" Section of Tradingview. For those of you don't know, those rates compare earnings and sales with your share price in regard to market cap and outstanding shares.
The scripts differs to the build-in versions in the following points:
- P/E & P/S rates are combined in one indicator
- Negative P/E rates are displayed better: Positive P/E rates are green, Negative P/E rates are red
- For visualization reasons, the indicator will cap positive and negative P/E rates at 100. (P/E rates above those levels are not siginificant either way)
- P/E & P/S rate are directly displayed on the graph
- Both P/E and P/S rates are combined on one left scale
- For visualization reasons, P/S rate is showing 10x the actual P/S rate. Using the standard P/S rate would result in hard-to-recognize changes of the P/S line.
To sum up:
- Positive P/E rates are green
- Negative P/E rate are red
- P/S rates are multiplied by 1 0
- P/S rates are yellow
How to use P/E and P/S rates:
The US market average for P/E rates is roughly ~18 in the US right now (10/2022) while the market average for P/S rates is roughly ~3 in the US. Note that average P/E and P/S can change when the market situation changes.
P/E and P/S rates help you value your stock better and help you decide whether your stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to the market or the industry when it comes to earnings and sales. If you compare to Market averages, a positive P/E of less than 18 means that your stock is likely unvervalued. A P/S rate below 3 (30 in the chart!) means that your stock is likely undervalued as well. If your stock shows rates above those, it is likely that it is overvalued compared to market averages.
Please note that P/E and P/S rates are not the only factors that make up a stock valuation. Valuations are complex and subjective.
A positive P/E rate also means that your company is profitable.
A Negative P/E rate means that your company is unprofitable.
If you have any questions or feedback let me know!
Disclaimer: This script doesn't show the actual P/S rate. It shows the P/S rate multiplied by 10, due to visualization issues. Positive P/E Rates above 100 are displayed as 100. Positive P/E rates are green, Negative P/E rates are red and multiplied by -1.
Disclaimer2: @Tradingview_Team: I couldn't find the right category for this script but categories are mandatory. I assume that "Breadth Indicators" is still the closest there is. Please let me know if you want me to change the category.
Disclaimer3: For visualization, the opacity of the displayed image is 70%. The standard opacity for the P/E and P/S lines is 50% and can be changed in the indicator settings. I found this setting more useful when working together with other indicators on the same chart
Disclaimer4: Earnings Per Share, Total Revenue used are TTM. Total Shares Outstanding used are FQ.
Gain/StopLoss Percentage LinesGain/StopLoss Percentage Lines is a quick way to enter your Entry Price in to a stock and track the percentage of gain or loss at the 5% and 10% markers.
Click on the gear settings icon and type in your entry price. The percentage is defaulted to 5%. You can change this to a different percentage at this screen. Note that whatever number you enter will be doubled for the upper and lower lines. For instance, if you want to set your first red line stop loss and green gain line at 2.5%, your two other upper and lower green and red lines will be at 5%.
However, this will not change the text on the tab marker.
To change the tab text, go in to the Pine Editor and change the green text that says "5% Gain" and "5% Loss" to your new percentages.
Auto Price Action - Volume Price and Spread [Mehrok]Auto Price Action - Volume Price and Spread script generates important support and resistance levels basis activity happening in price, volume and candle spread. The basic idea has been taken from concepts of VSA which underlies that weakness appears in uptrend and strength in downtrend. Script will try to find candles which have volume higher then average and candle spread.
Underlying logic:
Script generates significant high's as resistance and lows as support basis activity happened on volume, price and candle spread. Once criteria set in script is met it would then mark that candle with resistance or support line which would act as important price action level later in time.
Usage:
As it records and maintain important high and lows happening on candles till the time new levels are generated therefore generated price levels act as significant support or resistance. Higher the activity in volume, price and spread stronger that price level would act as support or resistance in future.
Settings:
AvgLen- It would allow you to set the SMA settings for volume bars. By default set at 20 means that SMA of 20D volume would be considered in script.
Volume Start Threshold - Default 1.3 - You can change this setting basis stock volatility. This would set the starting point in script to trigger support or resistance levels if volume is equal or higher then the multiplier you have chosen.
Bearish Volume Mult 1, 2 and 3: Set the the levels which can be adjusted to generate x1, x2 or x3 resistance levels which would appear on top of candles.
Bullish Volume Mult 1, 2 and 3: Set the levels which can be adjusted to generate x1, x2, or x3 support levels which would appear at bottom of candles.
Use of bearish and bullish volume mult is to let user define the multiplier value against which current volume bar would be checked. Higher the value means rare it would be.
x1 - Starting level of resistance/support. It would be considered as level 1 of support or resistance which can be broken easily. Happen too often.
x2 - Medium level of resistance/support. It would be considered as level 2 of support or resistance which can give tough fight as price would reach this level. If set as more then 50% of stock volatility of instrument then price would react for sure.
x3 - Strongest level of resistance/support. If set 3 or higher it would be rare to be generated and price may not visit level too often.
Bullish Candle Matrix %: Keep it above 50 to let script check how strong bullish candle is. Strength of candle increase as value increase from 50 towards 100. Keep it at 52 to track maximum bullish candles.
Bearish Candle Matrix %: Keep it below 50 to let script check how strong bearish candle is. Strength of candle increase as value increase from 50 towards 0. Keep it at 47to track maximum bearish candles.
Optional Lines
Optional lines usage no volume activity therefore can generate important price levels basis volume and price only.
Script work on all time frame where volume information is available. In absence of volume information script would only generate optional levels and that too if activated.
Barcolor X 2021-9-28This barcolor setting adds dimension to whether it's above or below where it was X bars ago by adding a longer term argument to filter out sideways price action. For example, the white price bars show when the price stayed above where it was five bars ago AND twenty bars ago. Adjust the lookback values to suit your needs. As usual, the settings I come up with work best when used on multiple time frames!
Price Range TableThe table shows the ranking of the price as a percentage relative to the past candles.
100 ~ highest price of the time frame
0 ~ lowest price of the time frame
Straddle / Ironfly AdjustmentStraddle / Iron fly Adjustment is an indicator to assist (especially) Nifty / Bank Nifty Option Writers / Sellers (other instrument writers also) to draw their straddle / iron fly payoff diagram in the chart, mainly max profit and breakeven points and do adjustment based on the market movement.
Basic Idea: (My Conclusion for making this Indicator)
1) For Straddle / Iron fly writers need to adjust their position based on the market movement.
2) Here I give two adjustment ideas which one is my favorite method and another one is one of my friends is using.
a) Price Vs Time based Adjustment
I usually wait until price cross the price vs time line to do any adjustment. Generally, price vs time-based adjustment gives you more point to enter any adjustment in initial day/time when you created the straddle / iron fly. But one later it will reduce the range it become narrow.
b) Percentage based Adjustment
This method using by one of my friends which is based percentage between straddle / iron fly line and upper / lower breakeven points. Generally, he using 50 percentage. In this indicator we do have option to change the percentage between 25 to 100.
User must give inputs to see the straddle / iron fly diagram (Max Profit, Breakeven points, Adjustment, Percentage based adjust line and so)
This is not an intraday indicator and also its not suggesting you to take any buy/sell or straddle/iron fly positions. Its just giving an opportunity to draw a payoff diagram of for max profit and breakeven zone. And also helps to identify the adjustment based given scenario.
Happy Trading 😊
Saravanan Ragavan
Ryan's Candle Comboinside bar breakouts and reversal moves. version 1. use however u like it I cannot guarantee profitability :)
MTF WatchList Charts [Anan]█ OVERVIEW
I am happy to present this script with a nice idea!
You can now customize a watchlist with your preferred time frame and any symbol from any market.
The main purpose is to be aware of any moves and watch a brief overview of the chart.
█ FEATURES
- 8 customizable symbols with the option to show/hide anyone
- Multi time frame support
- 3 Types of charts (Candles / Heikin Ashi / Line)
- Displaying up to 10 candles for every chart
- Customizable chart colors
- Option to Show/hide Price
- Option to Show/hide Price Line
- Option to change Labels and Text Size
- Show Symbol name and used time frame
- Option to change gaps between charts
- Hover over on the top of any candle to see (Open/High/Low/Close) Prices
█ SCREENSHOTS
-----------------------------------------------
Special thanks to @dgtrd for inspiration and for the amazing framework used here ( HTF Candles by DGT )
Special thanks to Pine Chat @fareidzulkifli @Bjorgum @JohnBaron @fpainchaud
Alpha Trading - Absolute Mean Entropy with A2 EPPAbsolute Mean Entropy with Alpha Squared Entropy Price Percentile
Entropy
The history of the word ―entropy can be traced back to 1865 when the German physicist Rudolf Clausius tried to give a new name to irreversible heat loss, what he previously called ―equivalent-value.
The word ―entropy was chosen because in Greek, “en+tropein” means “content transformative” or “transformation content”
Since then, entropy has played an important role in thermodynamics and many other scientific fields. Being defined as the sum of “heat supplied” divided by “temperature” it is central to the Second Law of Thermodynamics. It also helps measure the amount of order and disorder and/or chaos.
The application of entropy in finance can be regarded as an extension of “Information Entropy” and “Probability Entropy”
Entropy in Finance can be used in many ways such as Asset Selection, Asset Diversification, Measure an Assets Risk, inputs into Options pricing. While Entropy started in the field of Thermodynamics as aforementioned it has also found a home in Finance. However, studies with entropy in the field of Finance are still in their infancy.
• Entropy is a measure of randomness. Entropy is used to help model and represent the degree of uncertainty of a random variable.
• Entropy is used by financial analysts and market technicians to determine the chances of a specific type of behavior by a security or market.
• Entropy has long been a source of study and debate by market analysts and traders. It is used in quantitative analysis and can help predict the probability that a security will move in a certain direction or according to a certain pattern.
The concept of Entropy is explored in the book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."
Entropy is plotted below the axis with negative values. Entropy can also colorize the candle color if selected.
R-squared (The Coefficient of Determination)
R-squared is a statistical measurement that examines how differences in one variable can be explained by the difference in a second variable, when predicting the outcome of a given event.
In other words, this coefficient, which is more commonly known as R-squared (or R2), assesses how strong the linear relationship is between two variables, and is heavily relied on by researchers when conducting trend analysis.
To cite an example of its application, this coefficient may contemplate the following question: if an indicator becomes pregnant on a certain day, what is the likelihood that this indicator would deliver a new indicator on a particular date in the future? In this scenario, this metric aims to calculate the correlation between two related events: conception of the indicator and the birth of the indicator.
• The coefficient of determination is a complex idea centered on the statistical analysis of models for data.
• The coefficient of determination is used to explain how much variability of one factor can be caused by its relationship to another factor.
• This coefficient is commonly known as R-squared (or R2) and is sometimes referred to as the "goodness of fit."
• This measure is represented as a value between 0.0 and 1.0, where a value of 1.0 indicates a perfect fit, and is thus a highly reliable model for future forecasts, while a value of 0.0 would indicate that the model fails to accurately model the data at all.
R2 and Price
The hypothesis that R2 is related to investors’ biases in processing information.
This theory motivates an empirical hypothesis that stocks with lower R2 should exhibit more pronounced overreaction-driven price momentum.
Alpha Trading AME/A2 EPP Settings
Settings for AME (Absolute Mean Entropy)
Length: Sample size.
Use as Barcolor: AME color as Price Action Candle color.
Show Entropy Flashes: If absolute value of entropy is very low, it gives yellow color for AME and Price Action Candle color if selected.
Band StdDev: (2 times) AME StdDev bands.1st and 2nd default.
Exponential Weighted Entropy: Weights the AME exponentially, is more reactive, but more noise.
Settings for EPP (Entropy Price Percentile)
Percentile Period: lookback for percentile range(relevant for flashes)
Background flashes: if EPP is below threshold default is below 10%, Flashes green in the background.
Std.err bands period: default 3 and multiplier 1.
EPP Column Meanings
Bright Green: Returns above the mean and increasing.
Dark Green: Returns above the mean and decreasing.
Bright Red: Returns below the mean and increasing.
Dark Red: Returns below the mean and decreasing.
Basic Trade Signal
Long – Value of AME is low, as you see EPP increasing with a coloration of green consider taking a long if you have confluence with other Alpha Trading Indicators.
Short – Value of AME is low, as you see EPP increasing with a coloration of red consider taking a short if you have confluence with other Alpha Trading Indicators.
The Chart below is showing Entries, Exponential Weighting input turned on, Percentile Period set to 30 instead of default 100, everything else is Default....
When using other Alpha Trading indicators in confluence, there are other entries available when the indicator isn't flashing and the indicator still supports the move.
References
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
www.wallstreetmojo.com
byjus.com
www.investopedia.com
en.wikipedia.org
papers.ssrn.com
Cross Average PriceSimple script that allows you to view crossings and averages 14/50/100/200 in a simple and intuitive way.
With this script you can keep an eye on trends visually.
Green Point = 14 crosses 50
Yellow Point = 14 crosses 100
Red Point = 14 crosses 200
Price ActionFirst, you have to know price action, RTM price action Handbook could help you
this indicator shows you base and momentum candles
base candles could be zones of trade that show you fighting of bulls and bears, and momentum candles could show the power of those zones.
Base candles are white in the chart, and you can place your order at the good zone.
Rally candles and drop candles are momentum candles, and bold rally and bold drop show that it is more powerful than its before candle.
Zigzag compression is one way that shows the compression in trend.
it looks like the Wedges pattern at classic technical that shows pending orders are closed, so the target zone could be powerful to reverse the trend.
Black background of candle means that candle doesn't reach its before candle and so it is poor candle, I named it domination.
It is better to do not trade at poor candles.
At the end, I find Price action the best way to trade, and it makes you free of other indicator, even volume indicator.
This indicator is good for those who use price action strategy to trade and those who want to learn the price action.
It could be so helpful and reliable way to find the zones, and place buy or sell order and the target, specially for scalping.
Trend Momentum with Buyers / Sellers PowerHi there!
With this indicator, you can hunt big trends before they start.
This indicator is combined with RSI and Momentum indicators
It can show you the power of trend and which side it wants to go
It can help you to open a position at the first point of a new trend or at the safe and proven point of the trend, also it can help you to close your position before the trend change its direction (it's not recommended to use it to close your positon, but sometimes it can help you to find the ending point of big pumps)
Rules:
* Baseline is ZERO ( 0 ) line
* When gray line crossover red line, it shows us a powerful uptrend
* When the gray line crossunder the red line it shows us a powerful upward trend
Signals:
* Only use Buy signals(Long) when they are above or crossing-up baseline
* Only use Sell signals(Short) when they are under or crossing-down baseline
* If they both (red and gray lines) are too high and they suddenly starting to come back to baseline, it shows we have a range trend, the trend is weak or a reversal trend is coming!!
!! WARNING: DO NOT USE THIS INDICATOR ALONE !!
Suggestions :
-Use 1H, 4H, daily, or Weekly timeframes
-Use ADX and DI or three WMA's
-Use divergence
-You can use it for scalping but you need to change the inputs (not recommended)
If you have any idea about making new indicators(what information do you want from the chart?), comment please, then I can research and make it for all of us! =)
pricing_tableThis script helps you evaluate the fair value of an option. It poses the question "if I bought or sold an option under these circumstances in the past, would it have expired in the money, or worthless? What would be its expected value, at expiration, if I opened a position at N standard deviations, given the volatility forecast, with M days to expiration at the close of every previous trading day?"
The default (and only) "hv" volatility forecast is based on the assumption that today's volatility will hold for the next M days.
To use this script, only one step is mandatory. You must first select days to expiration. The script will not do anything until this value is changed from the default (-1). These should be CALENDAR days. The script will convert to these to business days for forecasting and valuation, as trading in most contracts occurs over ~250 business days per year.
Adjust any other variables as desired:
model: the volatility forecasting model
window: the number of periods for a lagged model (e.g. hv)
filter: a filter to remove forecasts from the sample
filter type: "none" (do not use the filter), "less than" (keep forecasts when filter < volatility), "greater than" (keep forecasts when filter > volatility)
filter value: a whole number percentage. see example below
discount rate: to discount the expected value to present value
precision: number of decimals in output
trim outliers: omit upper N % of (generally itm) contracts
The theoretical values are based on history. For example, suppose days to expiration is 30. On every bar, the 30 days ago N deviation forecast value is compared to the present price. If the price is above the forecast value, the contract has expired in the money; otherwise, it has expired worthless. The theoretical value is the average of every such sample. The itm probabilities are calculated the same way.
The default (and only) volatility model is a 20 period EWMA derived historical (realized) volatility. Feel free to extend the script by adding your own.
The filter parameters can be used to remove some forecasts from the sample.
Example A:
filter:
filter type: none
filter value:
Default: the filter is not used; all forecasts are included in the the sample.
Example B:
filter: model
filter type: less than
filter value: 50
If the model is "hv", this will remove all forecasts when the historical volatility is greater than fifty.
Example C:
filter: rank
filter type: greater than
filter value: 75
If the model volatility is in the top 25% of the previous year's range, the forecast will be included in the sample apart from "model" there are some common volatility indexes to choose from, such as Nasdaq (VXN), crude oil (OVX), emerging markets (VXFXI), S&P; (VIX) etc.
Refer to the middle-right table to see the current forecast value, its rank among the last 252 days, and the number of business days until
expiration.
NOTE: This script is meant for the daily chart only.
DEMO of STC Price ActionThis is replica of the STC Price Action Script & is created for demo purpose only. Few features of original script may not be available in Demo Script.
How this works:
This Indicator looks to identify patterns which shows high movement area which may have occurred due to big orders at that time. It helps to Identify Price Action Zones where we may anticipate some reverse move. These Zones & Moves are helpful for Traders.
Buying Zone is below current Market Price. It indicates Price Action area where Buyers overpowered Sellers hence there was big Leg out Candle. This zone may again give buying momentum if Price comes back to that level. As a Trader one may take opportunity enter into the Trade on Bullish Side.
Selling Zone is above current Market Price. It indicate Price Action area where Sellers overpowered Buyers hence there was big Leg out Candle. This zone may again give Selling momentum if Price comes back to that level. As a Trader one may take opportunity enter into the Trade on Bearish Side.
DISCLAIMER:
This indicator/code IS NOT intended to be a formal investment advice or recommendation by the author, nor should be construed as such. Users will be fully responsible by their use regarding their own trading vehicles/assets.
It is strongly recommended that you should get full knowledge of how price actions work and wait for the clear indications before attempting.
