Adaptive Trade Probability Gate (TRADE / NO TRADE) v1.1This indicator is a context and probability filter, not a buy/sell signal.
It estimates the real-time probability that a trade will succeed by combining:
Broad market conditions (index behavior, volatility, participation)
Current stock structure (directional efficiency, relative strength, exploitability)
The output is a single decision:
TRADE → conditions are favorable; trades have positive expectancy
NO TRADE → conditions are hostile; even good setups tend to fail
The model adapts automatically to changing markets — it is not tuned to a fixed holding period, strategy, or regime. It reflects whether the market is forgiving or hostile right now, and whether the specific stock is worth engaging.
This indicator is designed to be used before entry to:
Filter low-quality trades
Adjust position size based on probability
Set realistic expectations for follow-through
It does not generate entries or stops.
It helps you decide when to trust your setups and when to stand aside.
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