Monte Carlo Simulation BandsMonte Carlo Simulation v2.4.2
Plots a one-bar-ahead price distribution band built from many simulated paths. The green band shows empirical percentiles of simulated final prices—these are distribution bounds, not a confidence interval of the mean.
What It Does
Simulates many one-bar price paths using a directional random walk with volatility scaling (uniform shocks, not Gaussian GBM).
Plots Mean Forecast, Median Forecast, and configurable percentile bounds (default 5th/95th).
Optional rolling HTF-days mean line (yellow) for trend context.
Optional labels and forward projection lines.
Alerts when the confirmed close breaks above or below the percentile band.
Non-Repainting & HTF Behavior (Fail-Closed)
All calculations are gated to confirmed bars only via explicit no_repaint_ok gate (barstate.isconfirmed).
If you select an HTF Resolution, the script uses a strict request.security(..., lookahead_off, gaps_off) pipeline.
If HTF data is unavailable, outputs are na—no silent fallback to chart timeframe.
A separate "HTF Alignment (lagged)" plot shows the prior HTF close (htf_price ) as visual proof of no look-ahead.
Volatility Source & Scaling
If "Use Historical Volatility" is enabled, volatility is estimated from log returns on the selected resolution (HTF if set, otherwise chart).
Annualization adapts to session type:
Equities: 6.5 hours/day, 252 trading days/year
Crypto: 24 hours/day, 365 days/year
Substeps increase path smoothness within the same one-bar horizon—they do not extend the forecast to multiple bars.
Key Inputs
• Prob Up / Prob Down — Must satisfy Prob Up + Prob Down ≤ 1.0. If violated, simulation is skipped and table shows "✗ PROB>1".
• # Simulations / # Substeps — Higher = smoother/more stable, but slower. Default 100×100 is a good balance.
• Lower/Upper Percentile — Define the band width (e.g., 5 and 95 for a 90% distribution band).
• Run On Last Bar Only — Performance mode (recommended). Skips historical computation; updates on each new confirmed bar.
• Resolution (HTF) — Leave blank for chart timeframe, or set to Weekly/Monthly for HTF-aligned simulation.
• Crypto 24/7 Session? — Enable for crypto markets to use correct annualization (365d, 24h).
How to Use (Quickstart)
Start with defaults and keep Run On Last Bar Only = true for speed.
Set Prob Up and Prob Down so their sum ≤ 1.0 (e.g., 0.5 + 0.5 = 1.0 for neutral).
Enable "Use Historical Volatility" and set a Volatility Lookback (e.g., 20 bars) for data-driven vol.
Set Resolution (HTF) if you want the model to run on higher timeframe data (e.g., 1W). Expect updates only when a new HTF interval starts.
Choose percentiles (e.g., 5 and 95) to define your distribution band width.
Enable alerts for "Price Above Upper Percentile" or "Price Below Lower Percentile" to get notified of breakouts.
Limitations & Disclosures
Forecast horizon is one bar only. Substeps do not create a multi-bar forecast.
Model uses uniform shocks with direction chosen from Prob Up/Down. This is not Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) and is not calibrated to any option-implied distribution.
Bounds are percentiles of final simulated prices, not a statistical confidence interval of the mean.
HTF mode updates at the start of a new HTF interval (first chart bar where the HTF timestamp changes), so the band appears "step-like" in realtime.
Historical volatility requires enough bars for the selected lookback; until then, values may be na.
Performance depends on Sims × Substeps; extreme settings (e.g., 500×500) can be slow.
This indicator does not predict direction—it shows a probabilistic range based on your inputs.
Distrubution
Smart Money Fluid [JOAT]
Smart Money Fluid — Accumulation and Distribution Flow Analysis
Smart Money Fluid tracks institutional-style accumulation and distribution patterns using a sophisticated combination of Money Flow Index, Chaikin Money Flow, and VWAP-relative price analysis. It aims to reveal whether larger participants may be accumulating (buying) or distributing (selling)—information that can precede significant price moves.
What Makes This Indicator Unique
Unlike single money flow indicators, Smart Money Fluid:
Combines three different money flow methodologies into one composite signal
Detects divergences between price and money flow automatically
Identifies high-volume conditions that add conviction to signals
Provides both the composite signal and individual component values
Features a momentum histogram showing flow acceleration
What This Indicator Does
Combines multiple money flow indicators into a composite signal (0-100 scale)
Identifies accumulation zones (potential institutional buying) and distribution zones (potential selling)
Detects divergences between price and money flow
Highlights high-volume conditions for stronger signals
Tracks momentum direction within the flow
Provides comprehensive dashboard with all component values
Composite Calculation Explained
The Smart Money Flow composite combines three proven money flow methodologies:
// Component 1: Money Flow Index (MFI) - 40% weight
// Measures buying/selling pressure using price and volume
float mfi = 100 - (100 / (1 + mfRatio))
// Component 2: Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) - 30% weight
// Measures accumulation/distribution based on close position within range
float cmf = sum(mfVolume, length) / sum(volume, length) * 100
// Component 3: VWAP Price Strength - 30% weight
// Measures price position relative to volume-weighted average price
float priceVsVWAP = (close - vwap) / vwap * 100
// Final Composite (scaled to 0-100)
float rawSMF = (mfi * 0.4 + (cmf + 50) * 0.3 + (50 + priceVsVWAP * 5) * 0.3)
float smf = ta.ema(rawSMF, smoothLength)
State Classification
Accumulating (Green Zone) — SMF above accumulation threshold (default: 60). Suggests institutional buying may be occurring.
Distributing (Red Zone) — SMF below distribution threshold (default: 40). Suggests institutional selling may be occurring.
Neutral (Gray Zone) — SMF between thresholds. No clear accumulation or distribution detected.
Divergence Detection
The indicator automatically detects divergences using pivot analysis:
Bullish Divergence — Price makes a lower low while SMF makes a higher low. This suggests selling pressure is weakening despite lower prices—potential reversal signal.
Bearish Divergence — Price makes a higher high while SMF makes a lower high. This suggests buying pressure is weakening despite higher prices—potential reversal signal.
Divergences are marked with "DIV" labels on the chart.
Visual Features
SMF Line with Glow — Main composite line with gradient coloring and glow effect
Signal Line — Slower EMA of SMF for crossover signals
Flow Momentum Histogram — Shows the difference between SMF and signal line with four-color coding:
- Bright green: Positive and accelerating
- Faded green: Positive but decelerating
- Bright red: Negative and accelerating
- Faded red: Negative but decelerating
Zone Backgrounds — Green tint in accumulation zone, red tint in distribution zone
Reference Lines — Dashed lines at accumulation/distribution thresholds, dotted line at 50
Strong Signal Markers — Triangles appear when accumulation/distribution occurs with high volume
Divergence Labels — "DIV" markers when divergences are detected
Color Scheme
Accumulation Color — Default: #00E676 (bright green)
Distribution Color — Default: #FF5252 (red)
Neutral Color — Default: #9E9E9E (gray)
Gradient Coloring — SMF line transitions smoothly between colors based on value
Dashboard Information
The on-chart table (top-right corner) displays:
Current SMF value with state coloring
State classification (ACCUMULATING, DISTRIBUTING, or NEUTRAL)
Flow momentum direction (Up/Down with magnitude)
MFI component value
CMF component value with directional coloring
Volume status (High or Normal)
Active divergence detection (Bullish, Bearish, or None)
Inputs Overview
Calculation Settings:
Money Flow Length — Period for flow calculations (default: 14, range: 5-50)
Smoothing Length — EMA smoothing period (default: 5, range: 1-20)
Divergence Lookback — Bars for pivot detection in divergence analysis (default: 5, range: 2-20)
Sensitivity:
Accumulation Threshold — Level above which accumulation is detected (default: 60, range: 50-90)
Distribution Threshold — Level below which distribution is detected (default: 40, range: 10-50)
High Volume Multiplier — Multiple of average volume for "high volume" classification (default: 1.5x, range: 1.0-3.0)
Visual Settings:
Accumulation/Distribution/Neutral Colors — Customizable color scheme
Show Flow Histogram — Toggle momentum histogram
Show Divergences — Toggle divergence detection and labels
Show Dashboard — Toggle the information table
Show Zone Background — Toggle colored backgrounds in accumulation/distribution zones
Alerts:
Await Bar Confirmation — Wait for bar close before triggering (recommended)
How to Use It
For Trend Confirmation:
Accumulation during uptrends confirms buying pressure
Distribution during downtrends confirms selling pressure
Divergence between price trend and SMF warns of potential reversal
For Reversal Detection:
Bullish divergence at price lows suggests potential bottom
Bearish divergence at price highs suggests potential top
Strong signals (triangles) with high volume add conviction
For Entry Timing:
Enter longs when SMF crosses into accumulation zone
Enter shorts when SMF crosses into distribution zone
Wait for high volume confirmation for stronger signals
Use divergences as early warning for position management
Alerts Available
SMF Accumulation Started — SMF entered accumulation zone
SMF Distribution Started — SMF entered distribution zone
SMF Strong Accumulation — Accumulation with high volume
SMF Strong Distribution — Distribution with high volume
SMF Bullish Divergence — Bullish divergence detected
SMF Bearish Divergence — Bearish divergence detected
Best Practices
High volume during accumulation/distribution adds significant conviction
Divergences are early warnings—don't trade them alone
Use in conjunction with price action and support/resistance
Works best on liquid markets with reliable volume data
This indicator is provided for educational purposes. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and use proper risk management before making trading decisions.
— Made with passion by officialjackofalltrades
Regime Classifier Oscillator (AiBitcoinTrend)The Regime Classifier Oscillator (AiBitcoinTrend) is an advanced tool for understanding market structure and detecting dynamic price regimes. By combining filtered price trends, clustering algorithms, and an adaptive oscillator, it provides traders with detailed insights into market phases, including accumulation, distribution, advancement, and decline.
This innovative tool simplifies market regime classification, enabling traders to align their strategies with evolving market conditions effectively.
👽 What is a Regime Classifier, and Why is it Useful?
A Regime Classifier is a concept in financial analysis that identifies distinct market conditions or "regimes" based on price behavior and volatility. These regimes often correspond to specific phases of the market, such as trends, consolidations, or periods of high or low volatility. By classifying these regimes, traders and analysts can better understand the underlying market dynamics, allowing them to adapt their strategies to suit prevailing conditions.
👽 Common Uses in Finance
Risk Management: Identifying high-volatility regimes helps traders adjust position sizes or hedge risks.
Strategy Optimization: Traders tailor their approaches—trend-following strategies in trending regimes, mean-reversion strategies in consolidations.
Forecasting: Understanding the current regime aids in predicting potential transitions, such as a shift from accumulation to an upward breakout.
Portfolio Allocation: Investors allocate assets differently based on market regimes, such as increasing cash positions in high-volatility environments.
👽 Why It’s Important
Markets behave differently under varying conditions. A regime classifier provides a structured way to analyze these changes, offering a systematic approach to decision-making. This improves both accuracy and confidence in navigating diverse market scenarios.
👽 How We Implemented the Regime Classifier in This Indicator
The Regime Classifier Oscillator takes the foundational concept of market regime classification and enhances it with advanced computational techniques, making it highly adaptive.
👾 Median Filtering: We smooth price data using a custom median filter to identify significant trends while eliminating noise. This establishes a baseline for price movement analysis.
👾 Clustering Model: Using clustering techniques, the indicator classifies volatility and price trends into distinct regimes:
Advance: Strong upward trends with low volatility.
Decline: Downward trends marked by high volatility.
Accumulation: Consolidation phases with subdued volatility.
Distribution: Topping or bottoming patterns with elevated volatility.
This classification leverages historical price data to refine cluster boundaries dynamically, ensuring adaptive and accurate detection of market states.
Volatility Classification: Price volatility is analyzed through rolling windows, separating data into high and low volatility clusters using distance-based assignments.
Price Trends: The interaction of price levels with the filtered trendline and volatility clusters determines whether the market is advancing, declining, accumulating, or distributing.
👽 Dynamic Cycle Oscillator (DCO):
Captures cyclic behavior and overlays it with smoothed oscillations, providing real-time feedback on price momentum and potential reversals.
Regime Visualization:
Regimes are displayed with intuitive labels and background colors, offering clear, actionable insights directly on the chart.
👽 Why This Implementation Stands Out
Dynamic and Adaptive: The clustering and refit mechanisms adapt to changing market conditions, ensuring relevance across different asset classes and timeframes.
Comprehensive Insights: By combining price trends, volatility, and cyclic behaviors, the indicator provides a holistic view of the market.
This implementation bridges the gap between theoretical regime classification and practical trading needs, making it a powerful tool for both novice and experienced traders.
👽 Applications
👾 Regime-Based Trading Strategies
Traders can use the regime classifications to adapt their strategies effectively:
Advance & Accumulation: Favorable for entering or holding long positions.
Decline & Distribution: Opportunities for short positions or risk management.
👾 Oscillator Insights for Trend Analysis
Overbought/oversold conditions: Early warning of potential reversals.
Dynamic trends: Highlights the strength of price momentum.
👽 Indicator Settings
👾 Filter and Classification Settings
Filter Window Size: Controls trend detection sensitivity.
ATR Lookback: Adjusts the threshold for regime classification.
Clustering Window & Refit Interval: Fine-tunes regime accuracy.
👾 Oscillator Settings
Dynamic Cycle Oscillator Lookback: Defines the sensitivity of cycle detection.
Smoothing Factor: Balances responsiveness and stability.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
