Alpine Predictive BandsAlpine Predictive Bands - ADX & Trend Projection is an advanced indicator crafted to estimate potential price zones and trend strength by integrating dynamic support/resistance bands, ADX-based confidence scoring, and linear regression-based price projections. Designed for adaptive trend analysis, this tool combines multi-timeframe ADX insights, volume metrics, and trend alignment for improved confidence in trend direction and reliability.
Key Calculations and Components:
Linear Regression for Price Projection:
Purpose: Provides a trend-based projection line to illustrate potential price direction.
Calculation: The Linear Regression Centerline (LRC) is calculated over a user-defined lookbackPeriod. The slope, representing the rate of price movement, is extended forward using predictionLength. This projected path only appears when the confidence score is 70% or higher, revealing a white dotted line to highlight high-confidence trends.
Adaptive Prediction Bands:
Purpose: ATR-based bands offer dynamic support/resistance zones by adjusting to volatility.
Calculation: Bands are calculated using the Average True Range (ATR) over the lookbackPeriod, multiplied by a volatilityMultiplier to adjust the width. These shaded bands expand during higher volatility, guiding traders in identifying flexible support/resistance zones.
Confidence Score (ADX, Volume, and Trend Alignment):
Purpose: Reflects the reliability of trend projections by combining ADX, volume status, and EMA alignment across multiple timeframes.
ADX Component: ADX values from the current timeframe and two higher timeframes assess trend strength on a broader scale. Strong ADX readings across timeframes boost the confidence score.
Volume Component: Volume strength is marked as “High” or “Low” based on a moving average, signaling trend participation.
Trend Alignment: EMA alignment across timeframes indicates “Bullish” or “Bearish” trends, confirming overall trend direction.
Calculation: ADX, volume, and trend alignment integrate to produce a confidence score from 0% to 100%. When the score exceeds 70%, the white projection line is activated, underscoring high-confidence trend continuations.
User Guide
Projection Line: The white dotted line, which appears only when the confidence score is 70% or higher, highlights a high-confidence trend.
Prediction Bands: Adaptive bands provide potential support/resistance zones, expanding with market volatility to help traders visualize price ranges.
Confidence Score: A high score indicates a stronger, more reliable trend and can support trend-following strategies.
Settings
Prediction Length: Determines the forward length of the projection.
Lookback Period: Sets the data range for calculating regression and ATR.
Volatility Multiplier: Adjusts the width of bands to match volatility levels.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational purposes and does not guarantee future price outcomes. Additional analysis is recommended, as trading carries inherent risks.
Priceprediction
Price Reversal Probability + Price Forecast [TradeDots]The TradeDots Price Reversal Probability + Price Forecast Indicator helps traders discern market direction and identify potential trading opportunities.
📝 HOW IT WORKS
The indicator provides two types of reversal signals:
Bullish Reversal: Marked with a green label, indicating an expected upward market reversal.
Bearish Reversal: Marked with a red label, indicating an expected downward market reversal.
⭐️ Computation
This tool identifies significant reversal patterns using a mathematical model on a designated window of candlesticks to calculate price action changes. It incorporates candlestick data and price indicators, such as the Open, Close, High, Low of candlesticks and Average True Range (ATR), to detect similar occurrences in real-time.
Potential market turning points are marked with reversal labels and percentage changes , calculated using pivot high or low price data from the last reversal patterns of the opposite side.
For example, a green label on the chart indicates a bullish reversal pattern, showing the market is expected to reverse upward. However, signals are based on historical price actions and are not 100% accurate. If the price breaks down from the bullish reversal pivot low, the original signal will turn half transparent until the next reversal pattern is detected.
The algorithm groups consecutive bullish reversal patterns until a bearish reversal pattern appears. The last bullish label occurrence indicates the maximum number of bullish patterns required to confirm a reversal in the group. This information is stored to apply Bayesian statistical models and probability models to generate market insights.
⭐️ Statistical Analysis
Reversal signals are categorized into bullish and bearish groups, with each group storing consecutive reversal signals.
In the indicator table, each new reversal is labeled sequentially (e.g., "🟢 #1" for the first bullish reversal after a bearish signal). The number increases for each new signal on the same side and resets when a reversal signal on the opposite side appears.
The indicator provides two forecasts: the probability of reversal and the expected price change if the pattern is successful or unsuccessful.
⭐️ Probability of Reversal
By counting the number of consecutive reversal patterns on one side before a reversal pattern on the opposite side appears, we can calculate the probability of reversal of each signal throughout the entire price action history.
Using Bayes’ Theorem, the probability increases with each consecutive pattern. The values are displayed in the first two columns of the indicator table, with the current condition highlighted in orange.
⭐️ Price Forecast
The price forecast uses the pivot point of the last reversal pattern of the opposite side as a reference for calculating the percentage change.
For example, for a group of bullish patterns, the pivot high of the most recent bearish pattern is taken. A percentage is calculated with the pivot low of all bullish patterns in the same group. Repeating this model throughout the entire historical price action patterns gives the average price percentage difference between all bearish and bullish patterns.
Whenever a new reversal pattern is detected, a price can be forecasted using the percentage difference from the statistical model. The target price is calculated and displayed in the third and fourth columns of the indicator table.
Assisting Traders To Make Data-Informed Trading Decisions
All included features in this indicator:
Labeling of bullish and bearish reversal patterns
Success probability of each reversal pattern
Price targets of each reversal pattern
Visual aid for pattern confirmation
More (check the changelog below for current features)
🛠️ HOW TO USE
⭐️ Reversal Signals
There are two types of reversal signals identified by the algorithm that detects reversal patterns using price action analysis with candlestick data and price indicators. When the price breaks out from the labeled pivot, the label will turn half transparent.
Bullish reversal signals: Labeled in green. The number represents the price of the candlestick "low," and the percentage value indicates the price difference from the previous bearish reversal pattern's candlestick "high."
Bearish reversal signals: Labeled in red. The number represents the price of the candlestick "high," and the percentage value indicates the price difference from the previous bullish reversal pattern's candlestick "low."
⭐️ Probability Table
The probability table shows the likelihood of reversal for each number of occurrences of bullish and bearish reversal signals, displayed in the first two columns.
It also shows the target prices for both bullish and bearish conditions for each number of reversal patterns.
⭐️ Price Targets
By combining the probability of reversal and the price forecast, price targets for new reversal patterns are calculated. These insights help traders align their strategies with price action analysis and statistics by simply observing the candlestick chart in real-time.
Bullish Price Target: The average percentage price and probability that the next bearish reversal signal might hit.
Bearish Price Target: The average percentage price and probability that the next bullish reversal signal might hit.
⭐️ Market Trend Panel
The market trend panel is a small table that indicates the market trend using a 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) alongside reversal signals. A bullish reversal pattern above the moving average indicates a "bullish" market, while a bearish reversal pattern below it indicates a "bearish" market. If the price fluctuates around the moving average, it is identified as "choppy."
The panel also shows the risk and reward for each trade by taking the closing bullish and bearish targets from the most recent reversal pattern's price reference. Lastly, it displays the probability of reversal, consistent with the number highlighted in the probability table.
⭐️ Other Visual Aid
Other visual aids visualize the market trend and potential direction for users on the candlestick chart.
Background colors reflect the current market trend (green = bullish, red = bearish, blue = choppy).
A white plotted line represents the moving average for categorizing market trends.
❗️LIMITATIONS
Price targets represent only the mean of percentage differences. Therefore, the price could reverse before hitting either side of the price target.
When the market is in extreme price action or a new market pattern, the price targets may not be forecasted accurately and might move out of the model's range.
This model works best for assets with less price variation and a near-Gaussian distribution in returns. It may be less accurate for assets with random price movements.
CONCLUSION
This indicator uses fundamental statistics and mathematical models to generate reversal probabilities and price forecasts. It does not have the ability to predict the future with certainty. Traders should combine this indicator with other confirmation strategies to make informed investment decisions.
See Author's instructions below to get instant access to this indicator.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
NOTES*
Calculations are based on historical data and do not guarantee future results.
Reversals exceeding ten consecutive occurrences are rare (likely <1% of total occurrences).
Users SHOULD NOT blindly follow the price targets as their trading strategy.
If you encounter a timeout with this indicator, reapply it to your chart.
The Next Pivot (With History) [Mxwll]Introducing "The Next Pivot (With History)"!
With permission from the author @KioseffTrading
The script "The Next Pivot" has been restructured to show historical projections!
Features
Find the most similar price sequence per time frame change.
Forecast almost any public indicator! Not just price!
Forecast any session i.e. 4Hr, 1Hr, 15m, 1D, 1W
Forecast ZigZag for any session
Spearmen
Pearson
Absolute Difference
Cosine Similarity
Mean Squared Error
Kendall
Forecasted linear regression channel
The image above shows/explains some of the indicator's capabilities!
Additionally, you can project almost any indicator!
Should load times permit it, the script can search all bar history for a correlating sequence. This won't always be possible, contingent on the forecast length, correlation length, and the number of bars on the chart.
If a load time error occurs, simple reduce the "Bars Back To Search" parameter!
The script can only draw 500 bars into the future. For whatever time frame you are on and the session you wish to project, ensure it will not exceeded a 500-bar forecast!
Reasonable Assessment
The script uses various similarity measures to find the "most similar" price sequence to what's currently happening. Once found, the subsequent price move (to the most similar sequence) is recorded and projected forward.
So,
1: Script finds most similar price sequence
2: Script takes what happened after and projects forward
While this may be useful, the projection is simply the reaction to a possible one-off "similarity" to what's currently happening. Random fluctuations are likely and, if occurring, similarities between the current price sequence and the "most similar" sequence are plausibly coincidental.
Thanks!
Price Prediction With Rolling Volatility [TradeDots]The "Price Prediction With Rolling Volatility" is a trading indicator that estimates future price ranges based on the volatility of price movements within a user-defined rolling window.
HOW DOES IT WORK
This indicator utilizes 3 types of user-provided data to conduct its calculations: the length of the rolling window, the number of bars projecting into the future, and a maximum of three sets of standard deviations.
Firstly, the rolling window. The algorithm amasses close prices from the number of bars determined by the value in the rolling window, aggregating them into an array. It then calculates their standard deviations in order to forecast the prospective minimum and maximum price values.
Subsequently, a loop is initiated running into the number of bars into the future, as dictated by the second parameter, to calculate the maximum price change in both the positive and negative direction.
The third parameter introduces a series of standard deviation values into the forecasting model, enabling users to dictate the volatility or confidence level of the results. A larger standard deviation correlates with a wider predicted range, thereby enhancing the probability factor.
APPLICATION
The purpose of the indicator is to provide traders with an understanding of the potential future movement of the price, demarcating maximum and minimum expected outcomes. For instance, if an asset demonstrates a substantial spike beyond the forecasted range, there's a significantly high probability of that price being rejected and reversed.
However, this indicator should not be the sole basis for your trading decisions. The range merely reflects the volatility within the rolling window and may overlook significant historical price movements. As with any trading strategies, synergize this with other indicators for a more comprehensive and reliable analysis.
Note: In instances where the number of predicted bars is exceedingly high, the lines may become scattered, presumably due to inherent limitations on the TradingView platform. Consequently, when applying three SD in your indicator, it is advised to limit the predicted bars to fewer than 80.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Algo Targets [Premium]The Algo Targets indicator includes a suite of tools that attempt to identify market maker liquidity targets in advance.
These levels can be used by traders to determine:
1. future support/resistance
2. entries/exits
3. directional bias
4. potential reversal levels
5. pullback targets
The script uses a proprietary prediction model based on specific candle sequences, historical moves and volatility projections.
These tools have been live tested across a variety of instruments and timeframes, but should be backtested against your preferred ticker for best performance.
Primary Features:
1. Anchors
Anchors are derived from a simple, but powerful, three-candle breakout pattern. We have found that this pattern, when combined with the relative position to previous Anchor patterns on the chart, gives us clues to predicting future price structure.
Common use case: The simplest way to trade Anchors is to know that price *almost always* makes a return visit. This can be a useful tool for reversal traders. Additionally, Anchors often occur just before strong directional momentum. This can be useful for trend traders looking for entry signals.
Power User feature: Projected Ranges can be enabled in Settings. Each Anchor provides a Retracement leg (measured as the midpoint between the last two Anchors) and an Expansion leg (measured as twice the size of the Retracement leg, projected in the opposite direction). If Projected Ranges are enabled, the directional bias is also highlighted within the range, making it easy to spot at a glance.
Caveats: Expansion legs require patience and solid risk management. Additionally, the Expansion leg contains an additional Trigger level which price MUST cross before we consider the Expansion leg to be "in play" as a valid price target. This Trigger is marked on each Expansion legs as a dotted line.
Please note, Anchors require a 3 candle lookback before they are printed to the chart.
2. Target Zones
Target Zones are an advanced feature, and can be enabled in the Settings panel.
Each Target Zone consists of three levels:
Trigger — This the level closest to the current price. We expect it to act as a support/resistance level until price breaks through.
Target — This is the level farthest from the price. This is how far price is likely to move AFTER crossing the Trigger.
Midpoint — This is the level between the Trigger and Target. If price enters a Target Zone and wicks off of the Midpoint line, it’s usually a reversal signal. In this case we would cut our trade, consider the Target “filled” and potentially enter a reversal trade.
Common use case: When prices crosses a Trigger into a Target Zone, we consider that Target level to be “unlocked.” Our expectation is that price will gravitate toward the Target.
Power User feature: There are many strategies that a trader can build around Target Zones. One of our favorites is to use Targets strictly as reversal entries. On ranging days, price will often wick off of a Target level, before making a quick move in the opposite direction.
Caveats: After a Target is unlocked, it may be reached within the next few bars, or it may be saved by the market algorithms for later. Keep an eye on the Midpoint for potential reversals, and as always, proper risk management is key.
IMPORTANT: The presence of a Target Zone on the chart is neither bullish not bearish by itself. We consider the Target to be in play if, AND ONLY IF, price has crossed the Trigger level.
3. Pullback Levels
Pullback Levels are algorithmically detected return levels. They usually act as a strong draw on price, and often appear just before a pullback in price.
Common use case: The simplest way to use Pullbacks is to look for ones that have not been filled, either from a previous day or in after-hours/pre-market. We use them for confirmation bias along with Anchors and unlocked Targets.
Power User feature: For day trading, we set Alerts on our favorite tickers for any detected Pullbacks on the 5 min chart. This usually gives us plenty of time to review the chart for a possible day trade entry.
Settings:
All features are customizable, including color, line length and visibility. This lets you keep your chart as clean as you like, while only displaying additional data when it is needed.
Alerts:
Alerts can be set for all features, with the ability to set bearish and bullish alerts separately, depending on your trading preference. It is recommended to use "Once Per Bar Close" when you create an alert.
ProjectionGreetings Traders! I have decided to release a few scripts as open-source as I'm sure others can benefit from them and perhaps make them better.(Be sure to check my Profile for the other scripts as well: www.tradingview.com).
This one is called Projection.
Projection is based off the same Principle as some of my other scripts, such as Trade Manager() and Price Predictor(). I use a simple concept using line.new() to define some potential Price Projections. From the Settings of the Indicator, you can access a couple different Pre-Set options.
Wide Parabola:
Skinny Parabola:
Straight Triangle:
ZigZag1:
ZigZag2:
I wanted to give a Special Thanks to @Pinecoders for the custom RoundToTick Function from Backtesting/Trading Engine --> ()
If you like Projection, be sure to Like, Follow, and if you have any questions, don't be afraid to drop a comment below.
Price PredictorGreetings Traders! I have decided to release a few scripts as open-source as I'm sure others can benefit from them and perhaps make them better.(Be sure to check my Profile for the other scripts as well: www.tradingview.com).
This one is called Price Predictor.
How To Use Price Predictor
Price Predictor acquires potential targets by measuring the Average Change of Price from a user-defined resolution, from Open to Open. By default, the Resolution is set to 1 Day, however you can play around with Weekly, Monthly, etc. When a new resolution period begins, Price Predictor will automatically adjust based on the new Average Change of Price.
Due to the avoidance of Security() in this script, you may have to play around with the Timeframe that you use it in to ensure that you have enough bars on your chart to process the User-Defined Resolution.
The first Target Zone represents Target 5 of my other script, Trade Manager()(Given that you set the Target Multiple and Default Threshold Inputs as the same in each script), and is the most likely to be hit before the end of the resolution period.
In addition to a User-Defined Resolution, you also have the option of using a Custom Price to define Target Zones, however I'd recommend using my other script, Trade Manager(), if the volatility of the Instrument isn't too high.
I wanted to give a Special Thanks to @Pinecoders for the Custom RoundToTick Function from The Backtesting/Trading Engine --> (
If you like Price Predictor, be sure to Like, Follow, and if you have any questions, don't be afraid to drop a comment below.
Trade ManagerGreetings Traders! I have decided to release a few scripts as open-source as I'm sure others can benefit from them and perhaps make them better.(Be sure to check my Profile for the other scripts as well: www.tradingview.com).
This one is called Trade Manager.
How To Use Trade Manager
Trade Manager acquires potential targets by measuring the Average Change of Price from a user-defined resolution, from Open to Open. By default, the Resolution is set to 1 Day, however you can play around with Weekly, Monthly, etc. When a new resolution period begins, Trade Manager will automatically adjust its Targets based on the new Average Change of Price.
Due to the avoidance of Security() in this script, you may have to play around with the Timeframe that you use it in to ensure that you have enough bars on your chart to process the User-Defined Resolution.
The idea behind Trade Manager is quite simple yet can be quite powerful at the same time. Consider a Daily Candle for example. You can clearly see how a vast amount of price movement can be encapsulated within it, sometimes in both directions. By measuring the Average Change of Price per day(From Open to Open), we can use this Average to build targets off of. Defining a small Threshold above and below the Open Price of the Daily Candle allows you to set Limit Orders at these levels with predefined Targets. Then, the use of the custom Trailing Stop and Break Even helps to secure profits without giving too much back to the market, all while managing your risk.
Within the Settings of Trade Manager, you have the option to alter the logic of whether Break-Even is set after the first Target or second Target is hit.
In addition to using a User-Defined Resolution Period, you can also input a Custom Price into the settings of Trade Manager and allow the Targets, Trailing Stop, and Break Even to be calculated from the Custom Price.
I wanted to give a Special Thanks to @PineCoders for the Custom RoundToTick Function from The Backtesting/Trading Engine --> ()
As a note, there are times where price will break out very strongly from the Limit Price, sometimes crossing the Stop and Limit Price on the same bar. When this happens, it is difficult for Pine to determine which occurred first intra-bar, and as a result, it does not record a new position. In these instances, I'd recommend adjusting the Default Stop Multiple so it is below the bar.
If you like Trade Manager, be sure to Like, Follow, and if you have any questions, don't be afraid to drop a comment below.
