Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
חפש סקריפטים עבור "GOLD"
XAUUSD 1H – FVG Buy/Sell Signals XAUUSD 1H – Fair Value Gap (FVG) Buy/Sell Signals (No Boxes)
What it is:
A clean, signal-only indicator for Gold on the 1-hour chart. It detects 3-bar Fair Value Gaps, waits for a deep retest, then confirms with strong candle structure + trend + ADX before printing a BUY/SELL arrow. No rectangles or clutter—just selective, high-quality signals.
Why it works:
Instead of chasing breakouts, the script hunts for imbalances (FVGs) where price often returns to “fair value.” It only fires when:
price revisits the gap by a configurable depth,
the candle closes beyond the far edge with a small buffer,
the candle body is ≥ ATR × K (confirms intent),
the broader trend (EMA-50/EMA-200) agrees, and
ADX (Wilder, manual) shows sufficient strength.
Key features
✅ Signal-only: arrows/labels—no boxes on chart.
✅ Deep retest logic (percentage of zone), not just a touch.
✅ Strong close filter (edge + buffer) + ATR body filter.
✅ Trend filter (EMA-50 vs EMA-200) to keep trades with the regime.
✅ ADX strength to avoid chop.
✅ One signal per zone (optional “delete on use”).
✅ Alerts for both BUY and SELL.
✅ Built for Pine v6, non-repainting logic on bar close.
Inputs you can tune
Min FVG size (pts) – ignore tiny gaps.
Retest depth (%) – how deep price must come back into the gap.
Close buffer (pts) – extra confirmation beyond zone edge.
Min body ≥ ATR× – candle strength requirement.
Min ADX – trend strength threshold.
Expire after X bars – keep zones fresh.
Delete zone after signal – true = one-shot signals.
How I use it
Apply to XAUUSD 1H.
Keep default filters for selective signals.
For more setups, lower Min FVG size or ADX and reduce retest depth; for stricter signals, do the opposite.
Combine with S/R or session timing (London/NY) for added confluence.
Notes
Signals are generated on bar close.
Designed for clarity and discipline—fewer, cleaner arrows over constant noise.
Works on other symbols/timeframes, but tuned for Gold 1H.
Tags: #XAUUSD #Gold #FVG #SmartMoney #1H #TrendFollowing #ADX #ATR #PineV6 #TradingView
Comparaison DXY, VIX, SPX, DJI, GVZPine Script indicator compares the normalized values of DXY, VIX, SPX, DJI, and GVZ indices on a single scale from 0 to 100. Here's a breakdown of what it does:
Data Requests: Gets closing prices for:
US Dollar Index (DXY)
VIX Volatility Index
S&P 500 (SPX)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
Gold Volatility Index (GVZ)
Normalization: Each index is normalized using a 500-period lookback to scale values between 0-100, making them comparable despite different price scales.
Visualization:
Plots each normalized index with distinct colors
Adds a dotted midline at 50 for reference
Uses thicker linewidth (2) for better visibility
Timeframe Flexibility: Works on any chart timeframe since it uses timeframe.period
This is useful for:
Comparing relative strength/weakness between these key market indicators
Identifying divergences or convergences in their movements
Seeing how different asset classes (currencies, equities, volatility) relate
You could enhance this by:
Adding correlation calculations between pairs
Including options to adjust the normalization period
Adding alerts when instruments diverge beyond certain thresholds
Including volume or other metrics alongside price
XAUUSD to GC1! ConverterThis simple utility indicator compares the spot gold price (XAUUSD) with the COMEX gold futures contract (GC1!).
It calculates the current spread between the two instruments and allows you to input a signal price on XAUUSD to instantly see the equivalent price on GC1!.
Perfect for traders who receive alerts on spot gold but execute on futures, ensuring seamless price adaptation.
Clean Multi-Indicator Alignment System
Overview
A sophisticated multi-indicator alignment system designed for 24/7 trading across all markets, with pure signal-based exits and no time restrictions. Perfect for futures, forex, and crypto markets that operate around the clock.
Key Features
🎯 Multi-Indicator Confluence System
EMA Cross Strategy: Fast EMA (5) and Slow EMA (10) for precise trend direction
VWAP Integration: Institution-level price positioning analysis
RSI Momentum: 7-period RSI for momentum confirmation and reversal detection
MACD Signals: Optimized 8/17/5 configuration for scalping responsiveness
Volume Confirmation: Customizable volume multiplier (default 1.6x) for signal validation
🚀 Advanced Entry Logic
Initial Full Alignment: Requires all 5 indicators + volume confirmation
Smart Continuation Entries: EMA9 pullback entries when trend momentum remains intact
Flexible Time Controls: Optional session filtering or 24/7 operation
🎪 Pure Signal-Based Exits
No Forced Closes: Positions exit only on technical signal reversals
Dual Exit Conditions: EMA9 breakdown + RSI flip OR MACD cross + EMA20 breakdown
Trend Following: Allows profitable trends to run their full course
Perfect for Swing Scalping: Ideal for multi-session position holding
📊 Visual Interface
Real-Time Status Dashboard: Live alignment monitoring for all indicators
Color-Coded Candles: Instant visual confirmation of entry/exit signals
Clean Chart Display: Toggle-able EMAs and VWAP with professional styling
Signal Differentiation: Clear labels for entries, X-crosses for exits
🔔 Alert System
Entry Notifications: Separate alerts for buy/sell signals
Exit Warnings: Technical breakdown alerts for position management
Mobile Ready: Push notifications to TradingView mobile app
Market Applications
Perfect For:
Gold Futures (GC): 24-hour precious metals trading
NASDAQ Futures (NQ): High-volatility index scalping
Forex Markets: Currency pairs with continuous operation
Crypto Trading: 24/7 cryptocurrency momentum plays
Energy Futures: Oil, gas, and commodity swing trades
Optimal Timeframes:
1-5 Minutes: Ultra-fast scalping during high volatility
5-15 Minutes: Balanced approach for most markets
15-30 Minutes: Swing scalping for trend following
🧠 Smart Position Management
Tracks implied position direction
Prevents conflicting signals
Allows trend continuation entries
State-aware exit logic
⚡ Scalping Optimized
Fast-reacting indicators with shorter periods
Volume-based confirmation reduces false signals
Clean entry/exit visualization
Minimal lag for time-sensitive trades
Configuration Options
All parameters fully customizable:
EMA Lengths: Adjustable from 1-30 periods
RSI Period: 1-14 range for different market conditions
MACD Settings: Fast (1-15), Slow (1-30), Signal (1-10)
Volume Confirmation: 0.5-5.0x multiplier range
Visual Preferences: Colors, displays, and table options
Risk Management Features
Clear visual exit signals prevent emotion-based decisions
Volume confirmation reduces false breakouts
Multi-indicator confluence improves signal quality
Optional time filtering for session-specific strategies
Best Use Cases
Futures Scalping: NQ, ES, GC during active sessions
Forex Swing Trading: Major pairs during overlap periods
Crypto Momentum: Bitcoin, Ethereum trend following
24/7 Automated Systems: Algorithmic trading implementation
Multi-Market Scanning: Portfolio-wide signal monitoring
Painel Técnico (4H x 1D) — Clean UI + Alertas BrenoG📋 Main Functions
1️⃣ Analysis in two fixed timeframes
4 hours and 1 day analyzed in parallel.
Each column in the table displays the data for its respective timeframe.
2️⃣ Entry point based on oversold conditions
The “entry point” is not the current price, but rather the last candle that went into oversold territory (RSI ≤ configured threshold).
If there has been no recent oversold condition, the current price is used as a fallback.
All calculations (Buy Zone, Stops, TPs) are based on this point.
3️⃣ Buy Zone
Defined as:
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Low Zone = entry * (1 - width%)
High Zone = entry
Always visible in the table, but alerts can be set to trigger only if RSI is oversold at the moment of entry.
4️⃣ Automatic Stops
Moderate Stop and Conservative Stop, calculated as a % below the entry point.
Displayed in the table with black text on a gray background for emphasis.
Alerts trigger when price crosses below these levels.
5️⃣ Take Profits (TP1–TP4)
Calculated from the entry point:
By percentage (usePercentTP = true) or
By fixed prices (usePercentTP = false).
The table displays:
Target price
% gain over the entry point
They only appear when RSI > 50 and EMA50 > EMA200 (the “alignment” condition).
Alerts trigger only on breakouts upward.
6️⃣ Context Indicators
RSI → shows numeric value and green/red color.
MACD → indicates if the MACD line is above or below the signal line.
EMAs 50/200 → indicates “Golden Cross” or “Death Cross”.
Price vs EMA200 → dedicated row showing “Above” or “Below EMA 200” with green/red color.
7️⃣ Visual Panel
Semi–transparent dark gray background, thin borders.
Colored header:
Blue for 4H
Orange for 1D
Rows separated by data type for easy reading.
Configurable font size (tiny to large).
Table position configurable (top_left, top_right, etc.).
8️⃣ Integrated Alerts
Entry/Exit of Buy Zone
Touch of each TP
Touch of each Stop
RSI entering Oversold
All alerts are separated by timeframe with clear, fixed messages.
📌 Simple Summary:
It’s an intelligent panel that combines multi–timeframe technical analysis, automatic calculation of entries/stops/TPs based on oversold conditions, and ready–to–use alerts — all presented in a visual, compact, and fully configurable format.
Gemini Trend Following SystemStrategy Description: The Gemini Trend Following System
Core Philosophy
This is a long-term trend-following system designed for a position trader or a patient swing trader, not a day trader. The fundamental goal is to capture the majority of a stock's major, multi-month or even multi-year uptrend.
The core principle is: "Buy weakness in a confirmed uptrend, and sell only when the uptrend's structure is fundamentally broken."
It operates on the belief that it's more profitable to ride a durable trend than to chase short-term breakouts or worry about daily price fluctuations. It prioritizes staying in a winning trade over frequent trading.
The Three Pillars of the Strategy
The script's logic is built on three distinct pillars, processed in order:
1. The Regime Filter: "Is This Stock in a Healthy Uptrend?"
Before even considering a trade, the script acts as a strict gatekeeper. It will only "watch" a stock if it meets all the criteria of a healthy, long-term uptrend. This is the most important part of the strategy as it filters out weak or speculative stocks.
A stock passes this filter if:
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is above the 200-day SMA. This is the classic definition of a "Golden Cross" state, indicating the medium-term trend is stronger than the long-term trend—a hallmark of a bull market for the stock.
The stock's performance over the last year is positive. The Rate of Change (ROC) must be above a minimum threshold (e.g., 15%). This ensures we are only looking at stocks that have already demonstrated significant strength.
The 200-day SMA itself is rising. This is a crucial check to ensure the very foundation of the trend is solid and not flattening out or beginning to decline.
If a stock doesn't meet these conditions, the script ignores it completely.
2. The Entry Trigger: "When to Buy the Dip"
Once a stock is confirmed to be in a healthy uptrend, the script does not buy immediately. Instead, it patiently waits for a point of lower risk and higher potential reward—a pullback.
The entry trigger is a specific, two-step sequence:
The stock price first dips and closes below its 50-day SMA. This signifies a period of temporary weakness or profit-taking.
The price then recovers and closes back above the 50-day SMA within a short period (10 bars).
This sequence is a powerful signal. It suggests that institutional buyers view the 50-day SMA as a key support level and have stepped in to defend it, overpowering the sellers. The entry occurs at this point of confirmed support, marking the likely resumption of the uptrend. On the chart, this event is highlighted with a teal background.
3. The Exit Strategy: "When is the Trend Over?"
The exit logic is designed to keep you in the trade as long as possible and only sell when the trend's character has fundamentally changed. It uses a dual-exit system:
Primary Exit (Trend Failure): The main reason to sell is a "Death Cross"—when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. This is a robust, albeit lagging, signal that the long-term uptrend is over and a bearish market structure is taking hold. This exit condition is designed to ignore normal market corrections and only trigger when the underlying trend has truly broken. On the chart, this is highlighted with a maroon background.
Safety-Net Exit (Catastrophic Stop-Loss): To protect against a sudden market crash or a company-specific disaster, a "safety-net" stop-loss is placed at the time of entry. This stop is set far below the entry price, typically underneath the 200-day SMA. It is a "just-in-case" measure that should only be triggered in a severe and rapid decline, protecting your capital from an unexpected black swan event.
Who is This Strategy For?
Position Traders: Investors who are comfortable holding a stock for many months to over a year.
Patient Swing Traders: Traders who want to capture large price swings over weeks and months, not days.
Investors using a Rules-Based Approach: Anyone looking to apply a disciplined, non-emotional system to their long-term portfolio.
Ideal Market Conditions
This strategy excels in markets with clear, durable trends. It performs best on strong, leading stocks during a sustained bull market. It will underperform significantly or generate losses in choppy, sideways, or range-bound markets, where the moving averages will frequently cross back and forth, leading to "whipsaw" trades.
GLD GC Price Converter Its primary function is to fetch the prices of the Gold ETF (ticker: GLD) and Gold Futures (ticker: GC1!) and then project significant price levels from one or both of these assets onto the chart of whatever instrument you are currently viewing.
Core Functionality & Features
Dual Asset Tracking: The script simultaneously tracks the prices of GLD and Gold Futures (GC).
Dynamic Price Level Projection: The script's main feature is its ability to calculate and draw horizontal price levels. It determines a "base price" (e.g., the nearest $100 level for GC) and then draws lines at specified increments above and below it. The key is that these levels are projected onto the current chart's price scale.
On-Chart Information Display:
Price Table: A customizable table can be displayed in any corner of the chart, showing the current prices of GLD and GC. It can also show the daily percentage change for GC, colored green for positive changes and red for negative ones.
Last Price Label: It can show a label next to the most recent price bar that displays the current prices of both GLD and GC.
Extensive Customization: The user has significant control over the indicator's appearance and behavior through the settings panel.
This includes:
Toggling the display for GLD and GC levels independently.
Adjusting the multiplier for the price levels (e.g., show levels every $100 or $50 for GC).
Changing the colors, line styles (solid, dashed, dotted), and horizontal offset for the labels.
Defining the number of price levels to display.
Controlling the text size for labels and the table.
Choosing whether the script updates on every tick or only once per candle close for better performance.
Mutanabby_AI | Algo Pro Strategy# Mutanabby_AI | Algo Pro Strategy: Advanced Candlestick Pattern Trading System
## Strategy Overview
The Mutanabby_AI Algo Pro Strategy represents a systematic approach to automated trading based on advanced candlestick pattern recognition and multi-layered technical filtering. This strategy transforms traditional engulfing pattern analysis into a comprehensive trading system with sophisticated risk management and flexible position sizing capabilities.
The strategy operates on a long-only basis, entering positions when bullish engulfing patterns meet specific technical criteria and exiting when bearish engulfing patterns indicate potential trend reversals. The system incorporates multiple confirmation layers to enhance signal reliability while providing comprehensive customization options for different trading approaches and risk management preferences.
## Core Algorithm Architecture
The strategy foundation relies on bullish and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern recognition enhanced through technical analysis filtering mechanisms. Entry signals require simultaneous satisfaction of four distinct criteria: confirmed bullish engulfing pattern formation, candle stability analysis indicating decisive price action, RSI momentum confirmation below specified thresholds, and price decline verification over adjustable lookback periods.
The candle stability index measures the ratio between candlestick body size and total range including wicks, ensuring only well-formed patterns with clear directional conviction generate trading signals. This filtering mechanism eliminates indecisive market conditions where pattern reliability diminishes significantly.
RSI integration provides momentum confirmation by requiring oversold conditions before entry signal generation, ensuring alignment between pattern formation and underlying momentum characteristics. The RSI threshold remains fully adjustable to accommodate different market conditions and volatility environments.
Price decline verification examines whether current prices have decreased over a specified period, confirming that bullish engulfing patterns occur after meaningful downward movement rather than during sideways consolidation phases. This requirement enhances the probability of successful reversal pattern completion.
## Advanced Position Management System
The strategy incorporates dual position sizing methodologies to accommodate different account sizes and risk management approaches. Percentage-based position sizing calculates trade quantities as equity percentages, enabling consistent risk exposure across varying account balances and market conditions. This approach proves particularly valuable for systematic trading approaches and portfolio management applications.
Fixed quantity sizing provides precise control over trade sizes independent of account equity fluctuations, offering predictable position management for specific trading strategies or when implementing precise risk allocation models. The system enables seamless switching between sizing methods through simple configuration adjustments.
Position quantity calculations integrate seamlessly with TradingView's strategy testing framework, ensuring accurate backtesting results and realistic performance evaluation across different market conditions and time periods. The implementation maintains consistency between historical testing and live trading applications.
## Comprehensive Risk Management Framework
The strategy features dual stop loss methodologies addressing different risk management philosophies and market analysis approaches. Entry price-based stop losses calculate stop levels as fixed percentages below entry prices, providing predictable risk exposure and consistent risk-reward ratio maintenance across all trades.
The percentage-based stop loss system enables precise risk control by limiting maximum loss per trade to predetermined levels regardless of market volatility or entry timing. This approach proves essential for systematic trading strategies requiring consistent risk parameters and capital preservation during adverse market conditions.
Lowest low-based stop losses identify recent price support levels by analyzing minimum prices over adjustable lookback periods, placing stops below these technical levels with additional buffer percentages. This methodology aligns stop placement with market structure rather than arbitrary percentage calculations, potentially improving stop loss effectiveness during normal market fluctuations.
The lookback period adjustment enables optimization for different timeframes and market characteristics, with shorter periods providing tighter stops for active trading and longer periods offering broader stops suitable for position trading approaches. Buffer percentage additions ensure stops remain below obvious support levels where other market participants might place similar orders.
## Visual Customization and Interface Design
The strategy provides comprehensive visual customization through eight predefined color schemes designed for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Color scheme options include Classic bright green and red combinations, Ocean themes featuring blue and orange contrasts, Sunset combinations using gold and crimson, and Neon schemes providing high visibility through bright color selections.
Professional color schemes such as Forest, Royal, and Fire themes offer sophisticated alternatives suitable for business presentations and professional trading environments. The Custom color scheme enables precise color selection through individual color picker controls, maintaining maximum flexibility for specific visual requirements.
Label styling options accommodate different chart analysis preferences through text bubble, triangle, and arrow display formats. Size adjustments range from tiny through huge settings, ensuring appropriate visual scaling across different screen resolutions and chart configurations. Text color customization maintains readability across various chart themes and background selections.
## Signal Quality Enhancement Features
The strategy incorporates signal filtering mechanisms designed to eliminate repetitive signal generation during choppy market conditions. The disable repeating signals option prevents consecutive identical signals until opposing conditions occur, reducing overtrading during consolidation phases and improving overall signal quality.
Signal confirmation requirements ensure all technical criteria align before trade execution, reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trading frequency for active strategies. The multi-layered approach balances signal quality against opportunity frequency through adjustable parameter optimization.
Entry and exit visualization provides clear trade identification through customizable labels positioned at relevant price levels. Stop loss visualization displays active risk levels through colored line plots, ensuring complete transparency regarding current risk management parameters during live trading operations.
## Implementation Guidelines and Optimization
The strategy performs effectively across multiple timeframes with optimal results typically occurring on intermediate timeframes ranging from fifteen minutes through four hours. Higher timeframes provide more reliable pattern formation and reduced false signal occurrence, while lower timeframes increase trading frequency at the expense of some signal reliability.
Parameter optimization should focus on RSI threshold adjustments based on market volatility characteristics and candlestick pattern timeframe analysis. Higher RSI thresholds generate fewer but potentially higher quality signals, while lower thresholds increase signal frequency with corresponding reliability considerations.
Stop loss method selection depends on trading style preferences and market analysis philosophy. Entry price-based stops suit systematic approaches requiring consistent risk parameters, while lowest low-based stops align with technical analysis methodologies emphasizing market structure recognition.
## Performance Considerations and Risk Disclosure
The strategy operates exclusively on long positions, making it unsuitable for bear market conditions or extended downtrend periods. Users should consider market environment analysis and broader trend assessment before implementing the strategy during adverse market conditions.
Candlestick pattern reliability varies significantly across different market conditions, with higher reliability typically occurring during trending markets compared to ranging or volatile conditions. Strategy performance may deteriorate during periods of reduced pattern effectiveness or increased market noise.
Risk management through stop loss implementation remains essential for capital preservation during adverse market movements. The strategy does not guarantee profitable outcomes and requires proper position sizing and risk management to prevent significant capital loss during unfavorable trading periods.
## Technical Specifications
The strategy utilizes standard TradingView Pine Script functions ensuring compatibility across all supported instruments and timeframes. Default configuration employs 14-period RSI calculations, adjustable candle stability thresholds, and customizable price decline verification periods optimized for general market conditions.
Initial capital settings default to $10,000 with percentage-based equity allocation, though users can adjust these parameters based on account size and risk tolerance requirements. The strategy maintains detailed trade logs and performance metrics through TradingView's integrated backtesting framework.
Alert integration enables real-time notification of entry and exit signals, stop loss executions, and other significant trading events. The comprehensive alert system supports automated trading applications and manual trade management approaches through detailed signal information provision.
## Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI Algo Pro Strategy provides a systematic framework for candlestick pattern trading with comprehensive risk management and position sizing flexibility. The strategy's strength lies in its multi-layered confirmation approach and sophisticated customization options, enabling adaptation to various trading styles and market conditions.
Successful implementation requires understanding of candlestick pattern analysis principles and appropriate parameter optimization for specific market characteristics. The strategy serves traders seeking automated execution of proven technical analysis techniques while maintaining comprehensive control over risk management and position sizing methodologies.
$TICK & TICKQ Sentiment IndicatorThe USI:TICK & USI:TICKQ Sentiment Indicator is a versatile tool for traders analyzing the NYSE Tick Index ( USI:TICK ) or Nasdaq Tick Index ( USI:TICKQ ) to gauge market sentiment. It provides clear visual signals, a customizable moving average, and statistical insights to identify bullish and bearish conditions in real-time.
Key Features:
Sentiment Signals: Green triangle (▲) labels at a user-defined level (default: +1200) when the Tick closes above zero, and red triangle (▼) labels (default: -1200) when below zero, indicating bullish or bearish sentiment.
Adjustable Moving Average: Plots a customizable moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, SMMA, HullMA) with user-defined length (default: 14) to smooth Tick data and highlight trends.
Close Statistics: Displays the percentage of positive and negative Tick closes over a user-specified lookback period (default: 100) in a customizable table (position and font size adjustable).
Threshold Lines: Includes reference lines at +800/-800 (gold) and +1000/-1000 (red) to mark key Tick levels, plus a zero line (gray, dashed) for context.
Customizable Display: Adjust symbol sizes (tiny, small, normal, large, huge), table position (top-right, top-left, etc.), and table font size for a tailored chart experience.
How to Use:
Apply the indicator to a USI:TICK or USI:TICKQ chart (e.g., TVC:TICK, TVC:TICKQ) on an intraday timeframe (e.g., 1-minute, 5-minute).
In the settings:
Set the TICK Symbol to your broker’s NYSE Tick ( USI:TICK ) or Nasdaq Tick ( USI:TICKQ ) symbol.
Adjust Top Level and Bottom Level (default: +1200/-1200) to position sentiment signals at chart edges.
Set Moving Average Length and Type to suit your analysis.
Configure Lookback Period for close percentage calculations.
Customize Dot Size , Table Position , and Table Font Size for optimal visibility.
Monitor green/red triangles for sentiment, the moving average for trends, and the table for statistical insights.
Notes:
This indicator is designed for both USI:TICK (NYSE Tick) and USI:TICKQ (Nasdaq Tick, NQ Tick), allowing analysis of either market’s breadth.
Ensure your chart’s timeframe supports USI:TICK or USI:TICKQ data.
Adjust Top Level / Bottom Level if symbols don’t appear at chart edges due to scaling.
Labels may stack with frequent signals; contact the developer for customization to limit frequency.
No symbol appears if the Tick closes at 0; a neutral marker can be added upon request.
Ideal For:
Day traders and scalpers using USI:TICK or USI:TICKQ to gauge market breadth.
Analysts seeking customizable visualizations and statistical insights for Tick data.
Created by northfieldwhale.
Lot Size Calculator (Dynamic) with Manual Pip ValueDevoleper: Sheikh Rakib
This TradingView indicator helps you calculate the correct lot size based on your risk amount in USD and stop loss (SL) in pips. It dynamically detects pip value per lot depending on the trading instrument (e.g., Forex majors, minors, gold, crypto), and also allows manual override if needed.
✅ Key Features:
📏 Input SL in pips and risk amount in USD
⚙️ Automatically detects pip size and pip value per lot
🧮 Calculates lot size based on your inputs
✍️ Manual pip value override option if auto-detection is incorrect
🖥️ Clean, organized info panel displayed on chart
💹 Works with Forex, Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD), BTC, ETH, and more
📘 Usage Tips:
Set your SL in pips and how much you want to risk per trade (USD)
If the pip value is not calculated correctly (rare for exotic pairs), enable and set your own value using the “Manual Pip Value” input
Recommended for scalpers, day traders, and swing traders who want to manage risk smartly
Built with risk management in mind — because consistent trading starts with proper lot sizing.
Advanced Market TheoryADVANCED MARKET THEORY (AMT)
This is not an indicator. It is a lens through which to see the true nature of the market.
Welcome to the definitive application of Auction Market Theory. What you have before you is the culmination of decades of market theory, fused with state-of-the-art data analysis and visual engineering. It is an institutional-grade intelligence engine designed for the serious trader who seeks to move beyond simplistic indicators and understand the fundamental forces that drive price.
This guide is your complete reference. Read it. Study it. Internalize it. The market is a complex story, and this tool is the language with which to read it.
PART I: THE GRAND THEORY - A UNIVERSE IN AN AUCTION
To understand the market, you must first understand its purpose. The market is a mechanism of discovery, organized by a continuous, two-way auction.
This foundational concept was pioneered by the legendary trader J. Peter Steidlmayer at the Chicago Board of Trade in the 1980s. He observed that beneath the chaotic facade of ticking prices lies a beautifully organized structure. The market's primary function is not to go up or down, but to facilitate trade by seeking a price level that encourages the maximum amount of interaction between buyers and sellers. This price is "value."
The Organizing Principle: The Normal Distribution
Over any given period, the market's activity will naturally form a bell curve (a normal distribution) turned on its side. This is the blueprint of the auction.
The Point of Control (POC): This is the peak of the bell curve—the single price level where the most trade occurred. It represents the point of maximum consensus, the "fairest price" as determined by the market participants. It is the gravitational center of the session.
The Value Area (VA): This is the heart of the bell curve, typically containing 70% of the session's activity (one standard deviation). This is the zone of "accepted value." Prices within this area are considered fair and are where the market is most comfortable conducting business.
The Extremes: The thin areas at the top and bottom of the curve are the "unfair" prices. These are levels where one side of the auction (buyers at the top, sellers at the bottom) was shut off, and trade was quickly rejected. These are areas of emotional trading and excess.
The Narrative of the Day: Balance vs. Imbalance
Every trading session is a story of the market's search for value.
Balance: When the market rotates and builds a symmetrical, bell-shaped profile, it is in a state of balance . Buyers and sellers are in agreement, and the market is range-bound.
Imbalance: When the market moves decisively away from a balanced area, it is in a state of imbalance . This is a trend. The market is actively seeking new information and a new area of value because the old one was rejected.
Your Purpose as a Trader
Your job is to read this story in real-time. Are we in balance or imbalance? Is the auction succeeding or failing at these new prices? The Advanced Market Theory engine is your Rosetta Stone to translate this complex narrative into actionable intelligence.
PART II: THE AMT ENGINE - AN EVOLUTION IN MARKET VISION
A standard market profile tool shows you a picture. The AMT Engine gives you the architect's full schematics, the engineer's stress tests, and the psychologist's behavioral analysis, all at once.
This is what makes it the Advanced Market Theory. We have fused the timeless principles with layers of modern intelligence:
TRINITY ANALYSIS: You can view the market through three distinct lenses. A Volume Profile shows where the money traded. A TPO (Time) Profile shows where the market spent its time. The revolutionary Hybrid Profile fuses both, giving you a complete picture of market conviction—marrying volume with duration.
AUTOMATED STRUCTURAL DECODING: The engine acts as your automated analyst, identifying critical structural phenomena in real-time:
Poor Highs/Lows: Weak auction points that signal a high probability of reversal.
Single Prints & Ledges: Footprints of rapid, aggressive market moves and areas of strong institutional acceptance.
Day Type Classification: The engine analyzes the session's personality as it develops ("Trend Day," "Normal Day," etc.), allowing you to adapt your strategy to the market's current character.
MACRO & MICRO FUSION: Via the Composite Profile , the engine merges weeks of data to reveal the major institutional battlegrounds that govern long-term price action. You can see the daily skirmish and the multi-month war on a single chart.
ORDER FLOW INTELLIGENCE: The ultimate advancement is the integrated Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) engine. This moves beyond structure to analyze the raw aggression of buyers versus sellers. It is your window into the market's soul, automatically detecting critical Divergences that often precede major trend shifts.
ADAPTIVE SIGNALING: The engine's signal generation is not static; it is a thinking system. It evaluates setups based on a multi-factor Confluence Score , understands the market Regime (e.g., High Volatility), and adjusts its own confidence ( Probability % ) based on the complete context.
This is not a tool that gives you signals. This is a tool that gives you understanding .
PART III: THE VISUAL KEY - A LEXICON OF MARKET STRUCTURE
Every element on your chart is a piece of information. This is your guide to reading it fluently.
--- THE CORE ARCHITECTURE ---
The Profile Histogram: The primary visual on the left of each session. Its shape is the story. A thin profile is a trend; a fat, symmetrical profile is balance.
Blue Box : The zone of accepted, "fair" value. The heart of the session's business.
Bright Orange Line & Label : The Point of Control. The gravitational center. The price of maximum consensus. The most significant intraday level.
Dashed Blue Lines & Labels : The boundaries of value. Critical inflection points where the market decides to either remain in balance or seek value elsewhere.
Dashed Cyan Lines & Labels : The major, long-term structural levels derived from weeks of data. These are institutional reference points and carry immense weight. Treat them as primary support and resistance.
Dashed Orange Lines & Labels : Marks a Poor or Unfinished Auction . These represent emotional, weak extremes and are high-probability targets for future price action.
Diamond Markers : Mark Single Prints , which are footprints of aggressive, one-sided moves that left a "liquidity vacuum." Price is often drawn back to these levels to "repair" the poor structure.
Arrow Markers : Mark Ledges , which are areas of strong horizontal acceptance. They often act as powerful support/resistance in the future.
Dotted Gray Lines & Labels : The projected daily range based on multiples of the Initial Balance . Use them to set realistic profit targets and gauge the day's potential.
--- THE SIGNAL SUITE ---
Colored Triangles : These are your high-probability entry signals. The color is a strategic playbook:
Gold Triangle : ELITE Signal. An A+ setup with overwhelming confluence. This is the highest quality signal the engine can produce.
Yellow Triangle : FADE Signal. A counter-trend setup against an exhausted move at a structural extreme.
Cyan Triangle : BREAKOUT Signal. A momentum setup attempting to capitalize on a breakout from the value area.
Purple Triangle : ROTATION Signal. A mean-reversion setup within the value area, typically from one edge towards the POC.
Magenta Triangle : LIQUIDITY Signal. A sophisticated setup that identifies a "stop run" or liquidity sweep.
Percentage Number: The engine's calculated probability of success . This is not a guarantee, but a data-driven confidence score.
Dotted Gray Line: The signal's Entry Price .
Dashed Green Lines: The calculated Take Profit Targets .
Dashed Red Line: The calculated Stop Loss level.
PART IV: THE DASHBOARD - YOUR STRATEGIC COMMAND CENTER
The dashboard is your real-time intelligence briefing. It synthesizes all the engine's analysis into a clear, concise, and constantly updating summary.
--- CURRENT SESSION ---
POC, VAH, VAL: The live values for the core structure.
Profile Shape: Is the current auction top-heavy ( b-shaped ), bottom-heavy ( P-shaped ), or balanced ( D-shaped )?
VA Width: Is the value area expanding (trending) or contracting (balancing)?
Day Type: The engine's judgment on the day's personality. Use this to select the right strategy.
IB Range & POC Trend: Key metrics for understanding the opening sentiment and its evolution.
--- CVD ANALYSIS ---
Session CVD: The raw order flow. Is there more net buying or selling pressure in this session?
CVD Trend & DIVERGENCE: This is your order flow intelligence. Is the order flow confirming the price action? If "DIVERGENCE" flashes, it is a critical, high-alert warning of a potential reversal.
--- MARKET METRICS ---
Volume, ATR, RSI: Your standard contextual metrics, providing a quick read on activity, volatility, and momentum.
Regime: The engine's assessment of the broad market environment: High Volatility (favor breakouts), Low Volatility (favor mean reversion), or Normal .
--- PROFILE STATS, COMPOSITE, & STRUCTURE ---
These sections give you a quick quantitative summary of the profile structure, the major long-term Composite levels, and any active Poor Structures.
--- SIGNAL TYPES & ACTIVE SIGNAL ---
A permanent key to the signal colors and their meanings, along with the full details of the most recent active signal: its Type , Probability , Entry , Stop , and Target .
PART V: THE INPUTS MENU - CALIBRATING YOUR LENS
This engine is designed to be calibrated to your specific needs as a trader. Every input is a lever. This is not a "one size fits all" tool. The extensive tooltips are your built-in user manual, but here are the key areas of focus:
--- MARKET PROFILE ENGINE ---
Profile Mode: This is the most fundamental choice. Volume is the standard for price-based support and resistance. TPO is for analyzing time-based acceptance. Hybrid is the professional's choice, fusing both for a complete picture.
Profile Resolution: This is your zoom lens. Lower values for scalping and intraday precision. Higher values for a cleaner, big-picture view suitable for swing trading.
Composite Sessions: Your timeframe for macro analysis. 5-10 sessions for a weekly view; 20-30 sessions for a monthly, structural view.
--- SESSION & VALUE AREA ---
These settings must be configured correctly for your specific asset. The Session times are critical. The Initial Balance should reflect the key opening period for your market (60 minutes is standard for equities).
--- SIGNAL ENGINE & RISK MANAGEMENT ---
Signal Mode: THIS IS YOUR PERSONAL RISK PROFILE. Set it to Conservative to see only the absolute best A+ setups. Use Elite or Balanced for a standard approach. Use Aggressive only if you are an experienced scalper comfortable with managing more frequent, lower-probability setups.
ATR Multipliers: This suite gives you full, dynamic control over your risk/reward parameters. You can precisely define your initial stop loss distance and profit targets based on the market's current volatility.
A FINAL WORD FROM THE ARCHITECT
The creation of this engine was a journey into the very heart of market dynamics. It was born from a frustrating truth: that the most profound market theories were often confined to books and expensive institutional platforms, inaccessible to the modern retail trader. The goal was to bridge that gap.
The challenge was monumental. Making each discrete system—the volume profile, the TPO counter, the composite engine, the CVD tracker, the signal generator, the dynamic dashboard—work was a task in itself. But the true struggle, the frustrating, painstaking process that consumed countless hours, was making them work in unison . It was about ensuring the CVD analysis could intelligently inform the signal engine, that the day type classification could adjust the probability scores, and that the composite levels could provide context to the intraday structure, all in a seamless, real-time dance of data.
This engine is the result of that relentless pursuit of integration. It is built on the belief that a trader's greatest asset is not a signal, but clarity . It was designed to clear the noise, to organize the chaos, and to present the elegant, underlying logic of the market auction so that you can make better, more informed, and more confident decisions.
It is now in your hands. Use it not as a crutch, but as a lens. See the market for what it truly is.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
- John Maynard Keynes
DISCLAIMER
This script is an advanced analytical tool provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. All trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The signals, probabilities, and metrics generated by this indicator do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. You, the user, are solely responsible for all trading decisions, risk management, and outcomes. Use this tool to supplement your own analysis and trading strategy.
PUBLISHING CATEGORIES
Volume Profile
Market Profile
Order Flow
Liquidity Grab Entry Signals [Daily Enhanced]Liquidity Grab Entry Signals is a powerful tool designed to detect intraday reversal opportunities around daily high/low liquidity zones.
Core features: – Plots current daily high/low levels
– Identifies price interaction with these key zones
– Confirms rejection via strong engulfing candles
– Plots real-time long/short entry signals directly on chart
– Includes alerts for both long and short setups
This script is ideal for scalpers and intraday traders looking to exploit stop hunts, liquidity sweeps, and false breakouts.
Optimized for instruments like US30, NAS100, Gold, BTC and more.
Customize the sensitivity buffer to suit your asset and timeframe.
Use this in combination with VWAP, FVG or Smart Money concepts for enhanced confirmation.
---
Built for: 1s–15m charts
Includes: Alerts + Custom Settings
Type: Non-repainting
Trade with clarity around the most manipulated price levels of the day.
Vegas Tunnel StrategyVegas Tunnel Strategy is a trend-following breakout system based on exponential moving averages (EMAs). It uses a "tunnel" formed by the 144 EMA and 169 EMA to identify the market's long-term trend direction. Entry signals are generated when a shorter-term EMA (12 EMA) breaks above or below this tunnel, confirming momentum alignment.
Long Setup: Price and EMA12 are above the tunnel (EMA144 < EMA169); entry on pullback near the tunnel.
Short Setup: Price and EMA12 are below the tunnel (EMA144 > EMA169); entry on rebound near the tunnel.
Exit Rules: Fixed stop loss below/above the tunnel or based on ATR; take profit at 1.5–2× the risk.
This strategy works best on 4H or daily charts and is suitable for trending assets like FX pairs, gold, oil, or indices.
TSD Quantum [Moeinudin Montazerfaraj] 🔸 "TSD" stands for **Trend 1-2-3 and Supply & Demand**, which is the foundation of the trading style this indicator is built upon.
🔹 TSD Quantum is a specialized indicator designed exclusively for day traders who trade EURUSD, XAUUSD (Gold), and DAX40 on the 1H, 15M, and 5M timeframes using a Supply & Demand-based strategy.
This indicator is **not suitable for other symbols** and has been tailored specifically for these three assets to ensure high precision and effectiveness.
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### 🔍 Key Features:
✅ **Trading Checklist Panel**
A built-in checklist helps you track every rule in your trading plan. If even one condition is left unchecked, the system highlights it in red and marks the trade as "Not Allowed." This feature enhances trading discipline.
✅ **Spread & ATR Control Panel**
Supports both auto-calculated and fixed values for spread and ATR. This is especially helpful when placing stop-losses quickly and accurately.
✅ **Inside & Outside Candle Detection**
A dedicated panel highlights whether the last candle is inside or outside. Hovering your mouse over the chart elements automatically colorizes the candles:
🔵 Blue = Outside candle
🔴 Red = Inside candle
Also displays the high/low of the latest outside bar.
✅ **Weekly Trade Stats Panel**
Custom-built for the mentioned three assets. You can enter your trades using either fixed risk or floating risk models.
✅ **Performance Metrics**
Helps you build and adjust a floating risk model—so you don’t have to enter every trade with the same lot size. Improves risk management across multiple trades.
✅ **Base Candles Display**
Grey and white base candles are marked based on supply and demand zones.
✅ **EOT Candles**
Candles with a green dot underneath indicate valid EOT opportunities for potential move-outs.
✅ **RC (Rejection Candle) Detection**
RC candles are automatically detected to alert you of potential traps or weaknesses during Supply/Demand formations.
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### ⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator does **not** issue buy/sell signals and **cannot guarantee profit or prevent loss**. It is a **tool for discretionary trading**, not an automated expert advisor.
All decisions must be made by the trader based on their own strategy and risk tolerance.
This is the **latest tested version** of TSD Quantum. All features have been validated and function as intended. Future updates will be provided if needed.
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🙏 Thank you for reviewing this script. We hope it becomes a valuable addition to your day trading toolkit!
Ayman – Full Smart Suite Auto/Manual Presets + PanelIndicator Name
Ayman – Full Smart Suite (OB/BoS/Liq/FVG/Pin/ADX/HTF) + Auto/Manual Presets + Panel
This is a multi-condition trading tool for TradingView that combines advanced Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with classic technical filters.
It generates BUY/SELL signals, draws Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP1, TP2) levels, and displays a control panel with all active settings and conditions.
1. Main Features
Smart Money Concepts Filters:
Order Block (OB) Zones
Break of Structure (BoS)
Liquidity Sweeps
Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
Pin Bar patterns
ADX filter
Higher Timeframe EMA filter (HTF EMA)
Two Operating Modes:
Auto Presets: Automatically adjusts all settings (buffers, ATR multipliers, RR, etc.) based on your chart timeframe (M1/M5/M15).
Manual Mode: Fully customize all parameters yourself.
Trade Management Levels:
Stop Loss (SL)
TP1 – partial profit
TP2 – full profit
Visual Panel showing:
Current settings
Filter status
Trend direction
Last swing levels
SL/TP status
Alerts for BUY/SELL conditions
2. Entry Conditions
A BUY signal is generated when all these are true:
Trend: Price above EMA (bullish)
HTF EMA: Higher timeframe trend also bullish
ADX: Trend strength above threshold
OB: Price in a valid bullish Order Block zone
BoS: Structure break to the upside
Liquidity Sweep: Sweep of recent lows in bullish context
FVG: A bullish Fair Value Gap is present
Pin Bar: Bullish Pin Bar pattern detected (if enabled)
A SELL signal is generated when the opposite conditions are met.
3. Stop Loss & Take Profits
SL: Placed just beyond the last swing low (BUY) or swing high (SELL), with a small ATR buffer.
TP1: Partial profit target, defined as a ratio of the SL distance.
TP2: Full profit target, based on Reward:Risk ratio.
4. How to Use
Step 1 – Apply Indicator
Open TradingView
Go to your chart (recommended: XAUUSD, M1/M5 for scalping)
Add the indicator script
Step 2 – Choose Mode
AUTO Mode: Leave “Use Auto Presets” ON – parameters adapt to your timeframe.
MANUAL Mode: Turn Auto OFF and adjust all lengths, buffers, RR, and filters.
Step 3 – Filters
In the Filters On/Off section, enable/disable specific conditions (OB, BoS, Liq, FVG, Pin Bar, ADX, HTF EMA).
Step 4 – Trading the Signals
Wait for a BUY or SELL arrow to appear.
SL and TP levels will be plotted automatically.
TP1 can be used for partial close and TP2 for full exit.
Step 5 – Alerts
Set alerts via BUY Signal or SELL Signal to receive notifications.
5. Best Practices
Scalping: Use M1 or M5 with AUTO mode for gold or forex pairs.
Swing Trading: Use M15+ and adjust buffers/ATR manually.
Combine with price action confirmation before entering trades.
For higher accuracy, wait for multiple filter confirmations rather than acting on the first arrow.
6. Summary Table
Feature Purpose Can Disable?
Order Block Finds key supply/demand zones ✅
Break of Structure Detects trend continuation ✅
Liquidity Sweep Finds stop-hunt moves ✅
Fair Value Gap Confirms imbalance entries ✅
Pin Bar Price action reversal filter ✅
ADX Trend strength filter ✅
HTF EMA Higher timeframe confirmation ✅
ATR 5 min- FOREX + XAUThis indicator displays the Average True Range (ATR) over the last 20 candles, calculated using the 5-minute timeframe, regardless of the chart timeframe you're currently viewing.
It supports:
All major forex pairs
XAUUSD (Gold), with ATR displayed in full dollars
Key Features
Always reflects 5-minute volatility
Accurate pip scaling:
JPY pairs = 1 pip = 0.01
Other forex pairs = 1 pip = 0.0001
XAUUSD = 1 pip = 1.00 (i.e., full dollar)
Clean and minimal top-right table display
Automatically adapts based on the instrument you're viewing
Helps traders gauge recent market volatility across timeframes
This is an ideal tool for scalpers, intraday traders, or swing traders who want to monitor short-term volatility conditions from any timeframe view.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
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AymaN Entry Signal – With HTF + Pin Bar + Multi TP + BE + V1Ayman Entry Signal – Indicator Description
Overview
Ayman Entry Signal – With HTF + Pin Bar + Multi TP + BE + Stats Panel (V1)
This is a professional-grade Pine Script indicator designed for scalping and intraday trading, with full trade management, multi-confirmation logic, and advanced visualization. The tool is ideal for traders focused on XAUUSD (Gold), Forex, and other volatile instruments who seek both precision entries and structured exits with dynamic risk control.
Main Features
Advanced Entry Logic:
- EMA fast/slow crossovers (configurable)
- Optional conditions: Break of Structure (BoS), Order Block (OB), Fair Value Gap (FVG), Liquidity sweeps, Pin Bars
- HTF confirmation using EMA or BoS
- Real-time entry condition display
Trade Management:
- Dynamic calculation of Entry, SL (with ATR buffer), TP1, TP2
- Supports Partial Close and Break Even logic after TP1
- Visual PnL label (dynamic and color-coded)
Statistics Panel:
- Shows total trades, win/loss/breakeven count, cumulative PnL
- Filter by custom date or session
- Fully customizable panel appearance
Trade Visualization:
- Trade box includes all trade levels (Entry, SL, TP1, TP2)
- Visual display of trade conditions and PnL result
- Option to keep previous trades on chart
Alert System:
- Alerts for Buy and Sell entries
- Compatible with webhook automation systems like MT5/MT4
Customization & Inputs
- Capital & risk per trade
- Value per pip/point
- SL buffer (ATR-based)
- Manual EMA override
- Enable/disable: EMA, BoS, OB, FVG, Liquidity, Pin Bars
- HTF: timeframe + confirmation logic
- Trade box/labels visibility
- Full color customization
- PnL label position: top, center, or bottom
Recommended Use
- Ideal for Gold scalping (XAUUSD), also effective for Forex
- Best on 1m–15m charts; use HTF confirmation from 15m–4H
- Pairs well with semi-automated systems using alerts and webhooks
Disclaimer
Note: This is a non-executing indicator. It does not place trades but provides visual and statistical guidance for professional manual or semi-automated trading.
RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR V3📊 RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR – Lot Size, Profit & R:R Tool
This script is designed to help traders instantly calculate lot size, expected profit, and risk/reward ratio based on their trade plan.
✅ Features:
Input your Risk Amount ($), Entry, Stop Loss, and up to 3 Take Profits
Calculates:
✅ Lot Size based on risk
✅ Split profits per TP level (equally weighted)
✅ Total Profit & Risk/Reward (R:R)
Displays everything in a clean bottom-right table
Optimized for both:
🖥️ Desktop mode (larger layout)
📱 Mobile mode (toggle compact view)
💡 How to Use:
Enter your planned Entry, Stop Loss, and Risk Amount
Set any TP1, TP2, or TP3 prices (set TP to 0 if not used)
The system will auto-compute your ideal lot size and show estimated profits
🔧 Parameters:
Risk Amount ($) – how much you’re willing to lose
Entry Price – your trade entry
Stop Loss Price – your SL level
Take Profit 1/2/3 – optional TP targets
Pip Value – profit/loss per point for 1 standard lot
📱 Mobile Mode – compact the table for small screens
🔐 Notes:
No trades are executed – this is a risk planning tool only
Designed for all markets (forex, gold, indices, crypto)
TP profits are equally split (e.g. 2 TP = 50% / 50%)
RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR📊 RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATOR – Lot Size, Profit & R:R Tool
This script is designed to help traders instantly calculate lot size, expected profit, and risk/reward ratio based on their trade plan.
✅ Features:
Input your Risk Amount ($), Entry, Stop Loss, and up to 3 Take Profits
Calculates:
✅ Lot Size based on risk
✅ Split profits per TP level (equally weighted)
✅ Total Profit & Risk/Reward (R:R)
Displays everything in a clean bottom-right table
Optimized for both:
🖥️ Desktop mode (larger layout)
📱 Mobile mode (toggle compact view)
💡 How to Use:
Enter your planned Entry, Stop Loss, and Risk Amount
Set any TP1, TP2, or TP3 prices (set TP to 0 if not used)
The system will auto-compute your ideal lot size and show estimated profits
🔧 Parameters:
Risk Amount ($) – how much you’re willing to lose
Entry Price – your trade entry
Stop Loss Price – your SL level
Take Profit 1/2/3 – optional TP targets
Pip Value – profit/loss per point for 1 standard lot
📱 Mobile Mode – compact the table for small screens
🔐 Notes:
No trades are executed – this is a risk planning tool only
Designed for all markets (forex, gold, indices, crypto)
TP profits are equally split (e.g. 2 TP = 50% / 50%)
FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator [BackQuant]FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator
1. Concept and Rationale
The United States Federal Funds Rate is the anchor around which global dollar liquidity and risk-free yield expectations revolve. When the Fed hikes, borrowing costs rise, liquidity tightens and most risk assets encounter head-winds. When it cuts, liquidity expands, speculative appetite often recovers. Bitcoin, a 24-hour permissionless asset sometimes described as “digital gold with venture-capital-like convexity,” is particularly sensitive to macro-liquidity swings.
The FED Divergence Oscillator quantifies the behavioural gap between short-term monetary policy (proxied by the effective Fed Funds Rate) and Bitcoin’s own percentage price change. By converting each series into identical rate-of-change units, subtracting them, then optionally smoothing the result, the script produces a single bounded-yet-dynamic line that tells you, at a glance, whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming the policy backdrop—and by how much.
2. Data Pipeline
• Fed Funds Rate – Pulled directly from the FRED database via the ticker “FRED:FEDFUNDS,” sampled at daily frequency to synchronise with crypto closes.
• Bitcoin Price – By default the script forces a daily timeframe so that both series share time alignment, although you can disable that and plot the oscillator on intraday charts if you prefer.
• User Source Flexibility – The BTC series is not hard-wired; you can select any exchange-specific symbol or even swap BTC for another crypto or risk asset whose interaction with the Fed rate you wish to study.
3. Math under the Hood
(1) Rate of Change (ROC) – Both the Fed rate and BTC close are converted to percent return over a user-chosen lookback (default 30 bars). This means a cut from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent feeds in as –4.76 percent, while a climb from 25 000 to 30 000 USD in BTC over the same window converts to +20 percent.
(2) Divergence Construction – The script subtracts the Fed ROC from the BTC ROC. Positive values show BTC appreciating faster than policy is tightening (or falling slower than the rate is cutting); negative values show the opposite.
(3) Optional Smoothing – Macro series are noisy. Toggle “Apply Smoothing” to calm the line with your preferred moving-average flavour: SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or Hull. The default EMA-25 removes day-to-day whips while keeping turning points alive.
(4) Dynamic Colour Mapping – Rather than using a single hue, the oscillator line employs a gradient where deep greens represent strong bullish divergence and dark reds flag sharp bearish divergence. This heat-map approach lets you gauge intensity without squinting at numbers.
(5) Threshold Grid – Five horizontal guides create a structured regime map:
• Lower Extreme (–50 pct) and Upper Extreme (+50 pct) identify panic capitulations and euphoria blow-offs.
• Oversold (–20 pct) and Overbought (+20 pct) act as early warning alarms.
• Zero Line demarcates neutral alignment.
4. Chart Furniture and User Interface
• Oscillator fill with a secondary DEMA-30 “shader” offers depth perception: fat ribbons often precede high-volatility macro shifts.
• Optional bar-colouring paints candles green when the oscillator is above zero and red below, handy for visual correlation.
• Background tints when the line breaches extreme zones, making macro inflection weeks pop out in the replay bar.
• Everything—line width, thresholds, colours—can be customised so the indicator blends into any template.
5. Interpretation Guide
Macro Liquidity Pulse
• When the oscillator spends weeks above +20 while the Fed is still raising rates, Bitcoin is signalling liquidity tolerance or an anticipatory pivot view. That condition often marks the embryonic phase of major bull cycles (e.g., March 2020 rebound).
• Sustained prints below –20 while the Fed is already dovish indicate risk aversion or idiosyncratic crypto stress—think exchange scandals or broad flight to safety.
Regime Transition Signals
• Bullish cross through zero after a long sub-zero stint shows Bitcoin regaining upward escape velocity versus policy.
• Bearish cross under zero during a hiking cycle tells you monetary tightening has finally started to bite.
Momentum Exhaustion and Mean-Reversion
• Touches of +50 (or –50) come rarely; they are statistically stretched events. Fade strategies either taking profits or hedging have historically enjoyed positive expectancy.
• Inside-bar candlestick patterns or lower-timeframe bearish engulfings simultaneously with an extreme overbought print make high-probability short scalp setups, especially near weekly resistance. The same logic mirrors for oversold.
Pair Trading / Relative Value
• Combine the oscillator with spreads like BTC versus Nasdaq 100. When both the FED Divergence oscillator and the BTC–NDQ relative-strength line roll south together, the cross-asset confirmation amplifies conviction in a mean-reversion short.
• Swap BTC for miners, altcoins or high-beta equities to test who is the divergence leader.
Event-Driven Tactics
• FOMC days: plot the oscillator on an hourly chart (disable ‘Force Daily TF’). Watch for micro-structural spikes that resolve in the first hour after the statement; rapid flips across zero can front-run post-FOMC swings.
• CPI and NFP prints: extremes reached into the release often mean positioning is one-sided. A reversion toward neutral in the first 24 hours is common.
6. Alerts Suite
Pre-bundled conditions let you automate workflows:
• Bullish / Bearish zero crosses – queue spot or futures entries.
• Standard OB / OS – notify for first contact with actionable zones.
• Extreme OB / OS – prime time to review hedges, take profits or build contrarian swing positions.
7. Parameter Playground
• Shorten ROC Lookback to 14 for tactical traders; lengthen to 90 for macro investors.
• Raise extreme thresholds (for example ±80) when plotting on altcoins that exhibit higher volatility than BTC.
• Try HMA smoothing for responsive yet smooth curves on intraday charts.
• Colour-blind users can easily swap bull and bear palette selections for preferred contrasts.
8. Limitations and Best Practices
• The Fed Funds series is step-wise; it only changes on meeting days. Rapid BTC oscillations in between may dominate the calculation. Keep that perspective when interpreting very high-frequency signals.
• Divergence does not equal causation. Crypto-native catalysts (ETF approvals, hack headlines) can overwhelm macro links temporarily.
• Use in conjunction with classical confirmation tools—order-flow footprints, market-profile ledges, or simple price action to avoid “pure-indicator” traps.
9. Final Thoughts
The FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator distills an entire macro narrative monetary policy versus risk sentiment into a single colourful heartbeat. It will not magically predict every pivot, yet it excels at framing market context, spotting stretches and timing regime changes. Treat it as a strategic compass rather than a tactical sniper scope, combine it with sound risk management and multi-factor confirmation, and you will possess a robust edge anchored in the world’s most influential interest-rate benchmark.
Trade consciously, stay adaptive, and let the policy-price tension guide your roadmap.
1EMA + 1MACD + 1RSI Crypto Strategy AB 092Title: EMA + MACD + RSI Crypto Strategy
Overview:
This is a trend-following and momentum-based crypto trading strategy built for 1H, 4H, and 1D timeframes, combining three proven indicators:
EMA 50 & EMA 200 Crossover – identifies long-term trend direction.
MACD Crossover (12, 26, 9) – confirms momentum shift.
RSI Filter (14) – avoids overbought/oversold traps and refines entries.
Buy Entry Conditions:
EMA 50 > EMA 200 (Golden Cross)
MACD line crosses above signal line
RSI is between 45 and 70
Sell Entry Conditions:
EMA 50 < EMA 200 (Death Cross)
MACD line crosses below signal line
RSI is between 30 and 55
Risk Management:
Configurable Take Profit and Stop Loss percentages via inputs.
Default: 3% TP, 1.5% SL (adjustable based on timeframe and asset volatility).
Best For:
Intraday trades on 1H (BTC, ETH, SOL)
Swing trades on 4H
Position entries on 1D (top 50 altcoins)
This script includes visual Buy/Sell signals, alert conditions, and customizable SL/TP logic — making it a clean, actionable, and reliable strategy for crypto traders.
