New York, London and custom trading sessionsHi Traders
The script :
The Time sessions script plots the trading sessions of both New York and London markets (background fills), In addition to the above the script also plots a user defined trading session period (vertical lines). All plots may be toggled true or false inorder to ensure you can focus on the respective market / markets / custom session.
Market sessions are useful for technical or quantitative analysis, as the majority of trading activity and net daily volume occurs in these zones, in fact the U.S./London market overlap tends to have the greatest volume accumulation across that range of time / bars than that range at any other time within the daily session. For FX traders it may also be important to take into account for many currency pairs the average exchange rate pip movement is greatest within these zones.
The custom session, is intended to be used for traders who trade only within specific intervals within the market session or day for 24/7 traded asset classes
Additional notes :
Not as of now, I have only added three optional trading sessions. If you would like to change the sessions, copy the scripts code and change the "ctm_session" default time range value, insuring the second time value is 1 min > than the first.
As always i Hope this is a useful script, and I will be updating this script in the near future.
חפש סקריפטים עבור "THE SCRIPT"
Heikin Ashi ROC Percentile Strategy**User Guide for the "Heikin Ashi ROC Percentile Strategy"**
This strategy, "Heikin Ashi ROC Percentile Strategy", is designed to provide an easy-to-use framework for trading based on the Heikin Ashi Rate of Change (ROC) and its percentiles.
Here's how you can use it:
1. **Setting the Start Date**: You can set the start date for the strategy in the user inputs at the top of the script. The variable `startDate` defines the point from which the script begins executing trades. Simply input the desired date in the format "YYYY MM DD". For example, to start the strategy from March 3, 2023, you would enter `startDate = timestamp("2023 03 03")`.
2. **Adjusting the Midline, Lookback Period, and Stop Loss Level**: The `zerohLine`, `rocLength`, and `stopLossLevel` inputs allow you to adjust the baseline for ROC, the lookback period for the SMA and ROC, and the level at which the strategy stops the loss, respectively. By tweaking these parameters, you can fine-tune the strategy to better suit your trading style or the particular characteristics of the asset you are trading.
3. **Understanding the Trade Conditions**: The script defines conditions for entering and exiting long and short positions based on crossovers and crossunders of the ROC and the upper and lower "kill lines". These lines are defined as certain percentiles of the ROC's highest and lowest values over a specified lookback period. When the ROC crosses above the lower kill line, the script enters a long position; when it crosses below the upper kill line, it exits the position. Similarly, when the ROC crosses below the upper kill line, the script enters a short position; when it crosses above the lower kill line, it exits the position.
In my testing, this strategy performed best on a day and hour basis. However, I encourage you to experiment with different timeframes and settings to see how the strategy performs under various conditions. Remember, there's no one-size-fits-all approach to trading; what works best will depend on your specific circumstances, goals, and risk tolerance.
If you find other useful applications for this strategy, please let me know in the comments. Your feedback is invaluable in helping to refine and improve this tool. Happy trading!
Buyside & Sellside Liquidity [LuxAlgo]The Buyside & Sellside Liquidity indicator aims to detect & highlight the first and arguably most important concept within the ICT trading methodology, Liquidity levels.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Liquidity Levels
Detection Length: Lookback period
Margin: Sets margin/sensitivity for a liquidity level detection
🔹 Liquidity Zones
Buyside Liquidity Zones: Enables display of the buyside liquidity zones.
Margin: Sets margin/sensitivity for the liquidity zone boundaries.
Color: Color option for buyside liquidity levels & zones.
Sellside Liquidity Zones: Enables display of the sellside liquidity zones.
Margin: Sets margin/sensitivity for the liquidity zone boundaries.
Color: Color option for sellside liquidity levels & zones.
🔹 Liquidity Voids
Liquidity Voids: Enables display of both bullish and bearish liquidity voids.
Label: Enables display of a label indicating liquidity voids.
🔹 Display Options
Mode: Controls the lookback length of detection and visualization, where Present assumes last 500 bars and Historical assumes all data available to the user
# Visible Levels: Controls the amount of the liquidity levels/zones to be visualized.
🔶 USAGE
Definitions of Liquidity refer to the availability of orders at specific price levels in the market, allowing transactions to occur smoothly.
In the context of Inner Circle Trader's teachings, liquidity mainly relates to stop losses or pending orders and liquidity level/pool, highlighting a concentration of buy or sell orders at specific price levels. Smart money traders, such as banks and other large institutions, often target these liquidity levels/pools to accumulate or distribute their positions.
There are two types of liquidity; Buyside liquidity and Sellside liquidity .
Buyside liquidity represents a level on the chart where short sellers will have their stops positioned, and Sellside liquidity represents a level on the chart where long-biased traders will place their stops.
These areas often act as support or resistance levels and can provide trading opportunities.
When the liquidity levels are breached at which many stop/limit orders are placed have been traded through, the script will create a zone aiming to provide additional insight to figure out the odds of the next price action.
Reversal: It’s common that the price may reverse course and head in the opposite direction, seeking liquidity at the opposite extreme.
Continuation: When the zone is also broken it is a sign for continuation price action.
It's worth noting that ICT concepts are specific to the methodology developed by Michael J. Huddleston and may not align with other trading approaches or strategies.
🔶 DETAILS
Liquidity voids are sudden changes in price when the price jumps from one level to another. Liquidity voids will appear as a single or a group of candles that are all positioned in the same direction. These candles typically have large real bodies and very short wicks, suggesting very little disagreement between buyers and sellers. The peculiar thing about liquidity voids is that they almost always fill up.
🔶 ALERTS
When an alert is configured, the user will have the ability to be notified in case;
Liquidity level is detected/updated.
Liquidity level is breached.
🔶 RELATED SCRIPTS
ICT-Concepts
ICT-Macros
Imbalance-Detector
Pi - Intraday High-Low Predictor
Pi - Intraday High-Low Predictor
This is not my Strategy/Research , I've just coded it into a indicator.
I found it interesting & useful so I'm sharing it here.
This Strategy/Research is by Kshirod Chandra Mohanty ( y-o-u-t-u-b-e : Trade with IITIAN )
You can watch his video on y-o-u-t-u-b-e for more info on this one.
the video has following title :
"1Cr Paid Strategy For Free || 10000 Subscribers Special Giveaway || How to find Day High or Low"
This will not tell you which is day high or day low, but it will help you to predict the day high from a day low and day low from a day high.
It will give you a possible range to which the prices could move to.
He has explained/used this on Banknifty.
How to Find out Day High from Day Low & Day Low from Day High :-
He uses the value of Pi (3.14) and the Range of 1st 5minute candle to find out the possible highs from day low and the possible lows from day high.
Range = value of Pi * 1st 5minutes Range
Small range = Range / 2
Large range = Range + Small range
so to find out the possible lows from day high we do following calculations
Small range low = day high - Small range
Range low = day high - Range
Large range low = day high - Large range
and to find out the possible highs from day low we do following calculations
Small range high = day low + Small range
Range high = day low + Range
Large range high = day low + Large range
Note :- This Indicator does Repaint in following ways,
As the script uses the Day High to predict the possible lows ,
so if it's an up-trending day and price keeps on making new High's then the ranges for lows will keep on changing.
similarly the script uses the Day Low to predict the possible high's ,
so if it's an down-trending day and price keeps on making new Low's then the ranges for highs will keep on changing.
My observations / thoughts about this :-
This script does not provide buy/sell recommendations. it just provides possible ranges to where prices can go from Day-High & Day-Low.
It's better to avoid trading when the price is trading between the Small range high & Small range low levels.
As it has high probability that it will be a range bound day and price will stay in between those two levels.
There is a high probability that it will be a trending day if price breaks either the Small range high/low ,
then the price could move to Range low/high.
If price breaks from Range High/Low then there is a high probability that it will be a trending day and the price could move to Large Range low/high.
Note :- If you want to use this on instruments/scripts/indexes which are active for large session such as forex/cryptos , then i suggest that you use the Opening Range period of 4Hours i.e 240minutes, to get better results.
using the default setting of 5minutes will not give good results on them.
play around with this value to find out which one suits that instrument/script/index the best.
Don't trust these levels blindly, do backtest or live testing of this then use for real trade if you want.
Use Price action near these levels to make any trading decision's.
The script provides following options :
1. Option to display Ranges in a Table (which you can enable/hide as you wish)
You can set the Table's location, size , background color & text color according to your preference.
2. Option to enable/hide Predicted-Highs from Day-Low on chart.
3. Option to enable/hide Predicted-Lows from Day-High on chart.
4. Option to set the Opening range period - here you can select your preferred opening range for calculation purpose.
5. Option to enable/hide historical levels on chart.
6. Options to customize the colors & line styles for lines.
7. Options to customize the colors , position & size for labels.
Volume Profile Regression Channel [LuxAlgo]The Volume Profile Regression Channel calculates a volume profile from an anchored linear regression channel. Users can choose the starting and ending points for the indicator calculation interval.
Like a regular volume profile, a "line" of control (LOC), value area, and a developing LOC are displayed.
🔶 SETTINGS
Sections: The number of sections the linear regression channel is divided into for the calculation of the volume profile.
Width %: Determines the length of the profile within the channel relative to the channel length.
Value Area %: Highlights the sections starting from the POC whose accumulated volume is equal to the user-defined percentage of the total profile sections volume.
🔶 USAGES
Regular volume profiles are often constructed from a horizontal price area, this can allow highlighting price areas where most trading activity takes place.
However, when price is strongly trending a classical volume profile can sometimes be more uniform. This is where using an angled volume profile can be useful.
The line of control allows highlighting the section of the channel with the most accumulated volume, this line can be used as a potential future support/resistance. This is where an angled volume profile might be the most useful.
The developing LOC highlights the LOC location at a specific time within the profile (from left to right) and can sometimes provide an estimate of the underlying trend in the price.
🔶 DETAILS
To be computed the script requires a left and right chart time coordinates. When adding the script to their charts users can determine the left and right time coordinates by clicking on the chart.
The linear regression channel width is determined so that the channel precisely encompasses the whole price.
🔶 LIMITATIONS
Using a very large calculation interval can return timeouts. Users can reduce the calculation interval to fix that issue from occurring.
The amount of drawing objects that can be used is limited, as such using a high calculation interval can display an incomplete profile.
🔶 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
If you are interested in these types of scripts, @HeWhoMustNotBeNamed published a similar script where users can use a custom line angle. See his 'Angled Volume Profile' script from March 2023.
Trend AngleIntroduction:
In today's post, we'll dive deep into the source code of a unique trading tool, the Trend Angle Indicator. The script is an indicator that calculates the trend angle for a given financial instrument. This powerful tool can help traders identify the strength and direction of a trend, allowing them to make informed decisions.
Overview of the Trend Angle Indicator:
The Trend Angle Indicator calculates the trend angle based on the slope of the price movement over a specified period. It uses an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to smooth the data and an Epanechnikov kernel function for additional smoothing. The indicator provides a visual representation of the trend angle, making it easy to interpret for traders of all skill levels.
Let's break down the key components of the script:
Inputs:
Length: The number of periods to calculate the trend angle (default: 8)
Scale: A scaling factor for the ATR (Average True Range) calculation (default: 2)
Smoothing: The smoothing parameter for the Epanechnikov kernel function (default: 2)
Smoothing Factor: The radius of the Epanechnikov kernel function (default: 1)
Functions:
ema(): Exponential Moving Average calculation
atan2(): Arctangent function
degrees(): Conversion of radians to degrees
epanechnikov_kernel(): Epanechnikov kernel function for additional smoothing
Calculations:
atr: The EMA of the True Range
slope: The slope of the price movement over the given length
angle_rad: The angle of the slope in radians
degrees: The smoothed angle in degrees
Plotting:
Trend Angle: The trend angle, plotted as a line on the chart
Horizontal lines: 0, 90, and -90 degrees as reference points
How the Trend Angle Indicator Works:
The Trend Angle Indicator begins by calculating the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the True Range (TR) for a given financial instrument. This smooths the price data and provides a more accurate representation of the instrument's price movement.
Next, the indicator calculates the slope of the price movement over the specified length. This slope is then divided by the scaled ATR to normalize the trend angle based on the instrument's volatility. The angle is calculated using the atan2() function, which computes the arctangent of the slope.
The final step in the process is to smooth the trend angle using the Epanechnikov kernel function. This function provides additional smoothing to the trend angle, making it easier to interpret and reducing the impact of short-term price fluctuations.
Conclusion:
The Trend Angle Indicator is a powerful trading tool that allows traders to quickly and easily determine the strength and direction of a trend. By combining the Exponential Moving Average, ATR, and Epanechnikov kernel function, this indicator provides an accurate and easily interpretable representation of the trend angle. Whether you're an experienced trader or just starting, the Trend Angle Indicator can provide valuable insights into the market and help improve your trading decisions.
Optimized Logarithmic Curve for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) by FICASHello everyone!
I'd like to share with you a handy tool that is incredibly useful for analyzing Bitcoin's price movements. This optimized logarithmic curve indicator is a refined version of the popular "My BTC log curve" indicator, originally created by @quantadelic.
We have made several improvements to enhance its predictive capabilities when it comes to identifying potential price bottoms for Bitcoin BTC/USD.
Description:
In this detailed analysis, we are excited to introduce you to an optimized version of the popular "My BTC log curve" indicator, originally created by @quantadelic. We have refined the indicator for enhanced predictive capabilities when it comes to identifying potential price bottoms for Bitcoin BTC/USD. By putting ourselves in the reader's shoes, we aim to provide a comprehensive and meaningful explanation of our analysis and predictions using this improved tool.
The logarithmic curve is a powerful tool for analyzing price movements in a non-linear fashion, allowing traders and investors to identify critical turning points and trends. With the optimized logarithmic curve, we can more accurately predict potential price bottoms, ultimately guiding better-informed trading and investment decisions.
Key Features of the Optimized Logarithmic Curve:
Improved predictive capabilities: The refined logarithmic curve has been optimized to provide more accurate predictions of potential price bottoms, enabling traders to make better-informed decisions.
Enhanced visualization: The optimized curve offers a clearer visual representation of Bitcoin's price movements, making it easier for traders to identify patterns and trends.
Adaptability: This indicator can be applied to various timeframes, providing insights for both short-term and long-term traders.
The optimized logarithmic curve indicator is based on a logarithmic regression of the USD price of Bitcoin, calculated according to the equation:
y = A * exp(beta * x^lambda + c) + m * x + b
where x is the number of days since the genesis block. All parameters are editable in the script options, allowing traders to customize the curve to their preferences.
Here are some of the key changes made to the original indicator to create the optimized logarithmic curve:
Midline Calculation: The optimized logarithmic curve utilizes an updated method for calculating the midline, which better represents the average price movement of Bitcoin over time. This improved midline calculation provides a more accurate representation of Bitcoin's historical price trajectory, making it easier to identify potential price bottoms.
Cross Line Calculation: We have modified the way cross lines are calculated in the optimized logarithmic curve. These new cross lines are derived from a combination of the updated midline calculation and historical support and resistance levels. This change allows traders to more accurately identify critical points in the market where price action is likely to reverse or continue its trend.
Table Display: a powerful visualization tool designed to provide a comprehensive overview of the relationships between various exponential curves and the Bitcoin price. This table display, integrated into the "FiCAS BTC log curve" indicator, enables traders and analysts to quickly compare and assess the impact of these curves on the market.
Our analysis using the optimized logarithmic curve suggests that Bitcoin might be at a critical price bottom, indicating that selling at this point may not be the most prudent course of action. Instead, traders and investors could consider taking advantage of the potential upswing as the market moves away from the identified price bottom.
Key highlights of this Optimized Logarithmic Curve for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) by FICAS:
Custom Pine Script: Pinescript code serves as the backbone of this strategy, providing a strong foundation for identifying potential opportunities based on the relationships between exponential curves and Bitcoin price.
MACD Indicator: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is integrated to help traders recognize trend reversals, bullish or bearish market conditions, and potential entry or exit points.
Momentum Indicator: By incorporating the Momentum (10, close) indicator, traders can identify the strength of price movements and potential trend continuations or reversals.
RSI and SMA: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is used to assess overbought or oversold conditions, while the Simple Moving Average (SMA) with a period of 14 and an applied factor of 2 smoothens the data for better trend identification.
IMPORTANT:
While this indicator can be applied to traditional BTC/USD charts, we highly recommend using it on the following chart for optimal results in identifying price bottoms:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD / CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D * 100
By employing the optimized logarithmic curve indicator on the recommended chart, traders can gain a more accurate perspective on potential price bottoms, leading to improved decision-making.
In conclusion, the optimized logarithmic curve indicator provides valuable insights into Bitcoin's price movements, allowing traders and investors to make more informed decisions. We encourage you to test this refined tool and share your thoughts in the comments section. Special thanks to @quantadelic, the first creator of this indicator, for inspiring us to develop this optimized version. If you have any questions or require further clarification, please feel free to ask. Wishing you success in your trading and investment endeavors!
Please ensure you understand and abide by the TradingView House Rules when using this indicator: www.tradingview.com
EMA CO AlertEMAs play an important role in identifying the mood of the market.
Frequently used short term EMA is 5 and long term EMA is 50.
This script detects the crossover (+ve and -ve) and generates alerts accordingly.
Steps to apply:
1) Open the script on a desired timeframe.
2) Add this indicator on the chart
3) Choose the values of the 2 EMAs from settings
4) Go to the alert window.
5) Select this indicator from the 'Condition' dropdown
6) Create the alert.
This alert will then run in the background and notify you.
Need to apply a one time alert on the scripts.
In addition to above, you can also add this indicator on the chart and it will show green/red lines on the chart for signals.
Market Sessions - By LeviathanA simple indicator to help you keep track of 4 market sessions (default: Tokyo, London, New York, Sydney) in 4 different visual forms (boxes, timeline, zones, colored candles) with many other useful tools.
You can choose between 4 different market sessions. The default ones are Tokyo, London, New York and Sydney but you can easily customize the times, names and colors to make the script plot any session you need. Sessions can be viewed in 4 different ways: boxes, zones, timelines, or just colored candles, all with customizable appearances. You can make your chart cleaner by merging sessions overlaps, choosing a custom lookback period and also picking between various additional settings such as viewing session High/Low or Open/Close change in % or pips, hiding weekends, viewing the Open/Close Line to identify session’s direction and 0.5 level to see session’s “Equilibrium” and much more. More updates with interesting tools will be added in the future.
Note: The script will plot the correct default Tokyo, London, New York and Sydney sessions automatically, your chart/Tradingview app timezone does not matter! If you wish to tweak the open/close times of sessions, just make sure you input them in UTC (but even this can be changed later in the settings)
Settings Overview
SESSIONS
- You can show/hide Tokyo Session, rename it, change the color and set up start/end time.
- You can show/hide London Session, rename it, change the color and set up start/end time.
- You can show/hide New York Session, rename it, change the color and set up start/end time.
- You can show/hide Sydney Session, rename it, change the color and set up start/end time.
* Keep in mind that you can fully change and customize these sessions and therefore create any other sessions or a zone you wish to display.
ADDITIONAL TOOLS AND SETTINGS
1. “Change (Pips)” - this will add the pip distance between Session High and Session Low or the pip distance between Session Open and Session Close to the session label.
2. “Change (%)” - this will add the percentage distance between Session High and Session Low or the percentage distance between Session Open and Session Close to the session label.
3. “Merge Overlaps” - this will merge the overlapping sessions and show only one at a time (end of Tokyo is moved to start of London, the end of London is moved to the start of New York, end of New York is moved to start of Sydney and end of Sydney is moved to start of Tokyo).
4. “Hide Weekends” - this will prevent the script from plotting sessions over the weekend when the markets are closed.
5. “Open/Close Line” - this will draw a line from the session open to the session close (or current price, if session is ongoing).
6. “Session 0.5 Level” - this will draw a horizontal line halfway between the session’s high and the session’s low.
7. “Color Candles” - this will color the bars/candlesticks with the color of the session in which they occurred.
8. Display Type” - Choose between three different ways of session visualization (Boxes, Zones and Candles).
9. “Lookback (Days)” - this input tells the script to only draw sessions for X days back (1 = one day).
10. “Change (%/Pips) Source) - this is where you choose the source of “Change (Pips)” and ”Change (%) ” labels. Picking “Session High/Low” will show you the change between Session High and Session Low and picking “Session Open/Close” will show you the change between Session Open and Session Close.
11. “Input Timezone” - this defines the timezone of the session start/end inputs (you don’t have to change this unless you know what you’re doing)
Make sure to read future update logs to keep track of the most recent additions and settings of this script.
Box generation code inspired by Jos(TradingCode), session box visuals inspired by @boitoki's FX Market Sessions
[ChasinAlts] Best Volatility Indicator I hope you all enjoy this one as it does a great job at finding runners I did try to search for an example script to reference for quite a while when i first dreamt up this idea bc needed assistance implementing it. This script in particular was one that I began long ago but got put on the back-burner because I couldn't figure out how to implement the flow of logic until I came across a library titled 'Conditional Averages' and published by the “Pinecoders" account. Thus, the logic in this code is partially derived from that () . To understand what the functions/logic do in the beginning of the 'Functions'' section, you must understand how TV presents it's data through the charts.
Wether on the 1sec TF or the 1day (or ANY other), the only time TV prints a bar/candle is when a trade occurs for that asset (i.e. a change in volume). Even if Open=Close on the same candle, the candle will print with the updated price. The % of candles printed out of the TOTAL possible amount that COULD HAVE been printed is the ultimate output that’s calculated in the script. So, if the lookback setting=10min on the 1min TF and only 7 out of the last 10 candles have printed then the value will appear as 70(%). There are MANY benefits to using this method to measure volatility but its vital to recall that the indicator does nothing to provide the direction of future price movement. One thing I’ve noticed is that when a coin is just beginning it’s ascent and its move is considerably larger/longer than all the other coins OR the plots angle is very steep, it is usually the end of a move and the direction is about to abruptly reverse, continuing with it’s volatility. As volatility increases more and more the plot gets brighter and brighter…and also vise versa.
The settings are as follows:
1) which set of Kucoin’s Margin Coins to use (8 possible sets with 32 coins in each set).
2) input how many minutes ago to start counting the total printed candles from (i.e. if setting is input as 1440, count begins from exactly 24hrs(1440min) ago to present candle.
3) there are 3 different lines to choose from to be able to plot:
i. ‘Includes Open==Close’ = adds to count when bar prints but price does NOT change (=t1)
ii. ‘Does NOT include Open==Close’ = count ONLY updates upon price movement (=t2)
iii. ‘Difference’ = (( t1 - t2 ) / t1 ) *100
*** I’ve got some more great ones I will be uploading soon. Just have to create a description for them
Peace out,
- ChasinAlts
VIDYA Trend StrategyOne of the most common messages I get is people reaching out asking for quantitative strategies that trade cryptocurrency. This has compelled me to write this script and article, to help provide a quantitative/technical perspective on why I believe most strategies people write for crypto fail catastrophically, and how one might build measures within their strategies that help reduce the risk of that happening. For those that don't trade crypto, know that these approaches are applicable to any market.
I will start off by qualifying up that I mainly trade stocks and ETFs, and I believe that if you trade crypto, you should only be playing with money you are okay with losing. Most published crypto strategies I have seen "work" when the market is going up, and fail catastrophically when it is not. There are far more people trying to sell you a strategy than there are people providing 5-10+ year backtest results on their strategies, with slippage and commissions included, showing how they generated alpha and beat buy/hold. I understand that this community has some really talented people that can create some really awesome things, but I am saying that the vast majority of what you find on the internet will not be strategies that create alpha over the long term.
So, why do so many of these strategies fail?
There is an assumption many people make that cryptocurrency will act just like stocks and ETFs, and it does not. ETF returns have more of a Gaussian probability distribution. Because of this, ETFs have a short term mean reverting behavior that can be capitalized on consistently. Many technical indicators are built to take advantage of this on the equities market. Many people apply them to crypto. Many of those people are drawn down 60-70% right now while there are mean reversion strategies up YTD on equities, even though the equities market is down. Crypto has many more "tail events" that occur 3-4+ standard deviations from the mean.
There is a correlation in many equities and ETF markets for how long an asset continues to do well when it is currently doing well. This is known as momentum, and that correlation and time-horizon is different for different assets. Many technical indicators are built based on this behavior, and then people apply them to cryptocurrency with little risk management assuming they behave the same and and on the same time horizon, without pulling in the statistics to verify if that is actually the case. They do not.
People do not take into account the brokerage commissions and slippage. Brokerage commissions are particularly high with cryptocurrency. The irony here isn't lost to me. When you factor in trading costs, it blows up most short-term trading strategies that might otherwise look profitable.
There is an assumption that it will "always come back" and that you "HODL" through the crash and "buy more." This is why Three Arrows Capital, a $10 billion dollar crypto hedge fund is now in bankruptcy, and no one can find the owners. This is also why many that trade crypto are drawn down 60-70% right now. There are bad risk practices in place, like thinking the martingale gambling strategy is the same as dollar cost averaging while also using those terms interchangeably. They are not the same. The 1st will blow up your trade account, and the 2nd will reduce timing risk. Many people are systematically blowing up their trade accounts/strategies by using martingale and calling it dollar cost averaging. The more risk you are exposing yourself too, the more important your risk management strategy is.
There is an odd assumption some have that you can buy anything and win with technical/quantitative analysis. Technical analysis does not tell you what you should buy, it just tells you when. If you are running a strategy that is going long on an asset that lost 80% of its value in the last year, then your strategy is probably down. That same strategy might be up on a different asset. One might consider a different methodology on choosing assets to trade.
Lastly, most strategies are over-fit, or curve-fit. The more complicated and more parameters/settings you have in your model, the more likely it is just fit to historical data and will not perform similar in live trading. This is one of the reasons why I like simple models with few parameters. They are less likely to be over-fit to historical data. If the strategy only works with 1 set of parameters, and there isn't a range of parameters around it that create alpha, then your strategy is over-fit and is probably not suitable for live trading.
So, what can I do about all of this!?
I created the VIDYA Trend Strategy to provide an example of how one might create a basic model with a basic risk management strategy that might generate long term alpha on a volatile asset, like cryptocurrency. This is one (of many) risk management strategies that can reduce the volatility of your returns when trading any asset. I chose the Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA) for this example because it's calculation filters out some market noise by taking into account the volatility of the underlying asset. I chose a trend following strategy because regressions are capturing behaviors that are not just specific to the equities market.
The more volatile an asset, the more you have to back-off the short term price movement to effectively trend-follow it. Otherwise, you are constantly buying into short term trends that don't represent the trend of the asset, then they reverse and loose money. This is why I am applying a trend following strategy to a 4 hour chart and not a 4 minute chart. It is also important to note that following these long term trends on a volatile asset exposes you to additional risk. So, how might one mitigate some of that risk?
One of the ways of reducing timing risk is scaling into a trade. This is different from "doubling down" or "trippling down." It is really a basic application of dollar cost averaging to reduce timing risk, although DCA would typically happen over a longer time period. If it is really a trend you are following, it will probably still be a trend tomorrow. Trend following strategies have lower win rates because the beginning of a trend often reverses. The more volatile the asset, the more likely that is to happen. However, we can reduce risk of buying into a reversal by slowly scaling into the trend with a small % of equity per trade.
Our example "VIDYA Trend Strategy" executes this by looking at a medium-term, volatility adjusted trend on a 4 hour chart. The script scales into it with 4% of the account equity every 4-hours that the trend is still up. This means you become fully invested after 25 trades/bars. It also means that early in the trade, when you might be more likely to experience a reversal, most of your account equity is not invested and those losses are much smaller. The script sells 100% of the position when it detects a trend reversal. The slower you scale into a trade, the less volatile your equity curve will be. This model also includes slippage and commissions that you can adjust under the "settings" menu.
This fundamental concept of reducing timing risk by scaling into a trade can be applied to any market.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
Smoothed Heikin Ashi Trend on Chart - TraderHalai BACKTESTSmoothed Heikin Ashi Trend on chart - Backtest
This is a backtest of the Smoothed Heikin Ashi Trend indicator, which computes the reverse candle close price required to flip a Heikin Ashi trend from red to green and vice versa. The original indicator can be found in the scripts section of my profile.
This particular back test uses this indicator with a Trend following paradigm with a percentage-based stop loss.
Note, that backtesting performance is not always indicative of future performance, but it does provide some basis for further development and walk-forward / live testing.
Testing was performed on Bitcoin , as this is a primary target market for me to use this kind of strategy.
Sample Backtesting results as of 10th June 2022:
Backtesting parameters:
Position size: 10% of equity
Long stop: 1% below entry
Short stop: 1% above entry
Repainting: Off
Smoothing: SMA
Period: 10
8 Hour:
Number of Trades: 1046
Gross Return: 249.27 %
CAGR Return: 14.04 %
Max Drawdown: 7.9 %
Win percentage: 28.01 %
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 2.019
Average Loss: 0.33 %
Average Win: 1.69 %
Average Time for Loss: 1 day
Average Time for Win: 5.33 days
1 Day:
Number of Trades: 429
Gross Return: 458.4 %
CAGR Return: 15.76 %
Max Drawdown: 6.37 %
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 2.804
Average Loss: 0.8 %
Average Win: 7.2 %
Average Time for Loss: 3 days
Average Time for Win: 16 days
5 Day:
Number of Trades: 69
Gross Return: 1614.9 %
CAGR Return: 26.7 %
Max Drawdown: 5.7 %
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 10.451
Average Loss: 3.64 %
Average Win: 81.17 %
Average Time for Loss: 15 days
Average Time for Win: 85 days
Analysis:
The strategy is typical amongst trend following strategies with a less regular win rate, but where profits are more significant than losses. Most of the losses are in sideways, low volatility markets. This strategy performs better on higher timeframes, where it shows a positive expectancy of the strategy.
The average win was positively impacted by Bitcoin’s earlier smaller market cap, as the percentage wins earlier were higher.
Overall the strategy shows potential for further development and may be suitable for walk-forward testing and out of sample analysis to be considered for a demo trading account.
Note in an actual trading setup, you may wish to use this with volatility filters, combined with support resistance zones for a better setup.
As always, this post/indicator/strategy is not financial advice, and please do your due diligence before trading this live.
Original indicator links:
On chart version -
Oscillator version -
Update - 27/06/2022
Unfortunately, It appears that the original script had been taken down due to auto-moderation because of concerns with no slippage / commission. I have since adjusted the backtest, and re-uploaded to include the following to address these concerns, and show that I am genuinely trying to give back to the community and not mislead anyone:
1) Include commission of 0.1% - to match Binance's maker fees prior to moving to a fee-less model.
2) Include slippage of 10 ticks (This is a realistic slippage figure from searching online for most crypto exchanges)
3) Adjust account balance to 10,000 - since most of us are not millionaires.
The rest of the backtesting parameters are comparable to previous results:
Backtesting parameters:
Initial capital: 10000 dollars
Position size: 10% of equity
Long stop: 2% below entry
Short stop: 2% above entry
Repainting: Off
Smoothing: SMA
Period: 10
Slippage: 10 ticks
Commission: 0.1%
This script still remains to shows viability / profitablity on higher term timeframes (with slightly higher drawdown), and I have included the backtest report below to document my findings:
8 Hour:
Number of Trades: 1082
Gross Return: 233.02%
CAGR Return: 14.04 %
Max Drawdown: 7.9 %
Win percentage: 25.6%
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 1.627
Average Loss: 0.46 %
Average Win: 2.18 %
Average Time for Loss: 1.33 day
Average Time for Win: 7.33 days
Once again, please do your own research and due dillegence before trading this live. This post is for education and information purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice.
Everything Bitcoin [Kioseff Trading]Hello!
This script retrieves most of the available Bitcoin data published by Quandl; the script utilizes the new request.security_lower_tf() function.
Included statistics,
True price
Volume
Difficulty
My Wallet # Of Users
Average Block Size
api.blockchain size
Median Transaction Confirmation Time
Miners' Revenue
Hash Rate
Cost Per Transaction
Cost % of Transaction Volume
Estimated Transaction Volume USD
Total Output Volume
Number Of Transactions Per Block
# of Unique BTC Addresses
# of BTC Transactions Excluding Popular Addresses
Total Number of Transactions
Daily # of Transactions
Total Transaction Fees USD
Market Cap
Total BTC
Retrieved data can be plotted as line graphs; however, the data is initially split between two tables.
The image above shows how the requested Bitcoin data is displayed.
However, in the user inputs tab, you can modify how the data is displayed.
For instance, you can append the data displayed in the floating statistics box to the stagnant statistics box.
The image above exemplifies the instance.
You can hide any and all data via the user inputs tab.
In addition to data publishing, the script retrieves lower timeframe price/volume/indicator data, to which the values of the requested data are appended to center-right table.
The image above shows the script retrieving one-minute bar data.
Up arrows reflect an increase in the more recent value, relative to the immediately preceding value.
Down arrows reflect a decrease in the more recent value relative to the immediately preceding value.
The ascending minute column reflects the number of minutes/hours (ago) the displayed value occurred.
For instance, 15 minutes means the displayed value occurred 15 minutes prior to the current time (value).
Volume, price, and indicator data can be retrieved on lower timeframe charts ranging from 1 minute to 1440 minutes.
The image above shows retrieved 5-minute volume data.
Several built-in indicators are included, to which lower timeframe values can be retrieved.
The image above shows LTF VWAP data. Also distinguished are increases/decreases for sequential values.
The image above shows a dynamic regression channel. The channel terminates and resets each fiscal quarter. Previous channels remain on the chart.
Lastly, you can plot any of the requested data.
The new request.security_lower_tf() function is immensely advantageous - be sure to try it in your scripts!
Wolfe Scanner (Multi - zigzag) [HeWhoMustNotBeNamed]Before getting into the script, I would like to explain bit of history around this project. Wolfe was in the back of my mind for some time and I had several attempts so far.
🎯Initial Attempt
When I first developed harmonic patterns, I got many requests from users to develop script to automatically detect Wolfe formation. I thought it would be easy and started boasting everywhere that I am going to attempt this next. However I miserably failed that time and started realising it is not as simple as I thought it would be. I started with Wolfe in mind. But, ran into issues with loops. Soon figured out that finding and drawing wedge is more trickier. I decided will explore trendline first so that it can help find wedge better. Soon, the project turned into something else and resulted in Auto-TrendLines-HeWhoMustNotBeNamed and Wolfe left forgotten.
🎯Using predefined ratios
Wolfe also has predefined fib ratios which we can use to calculate the formation. But, upon initial development, it did not convince me that it matches visual inspection of Wolfe all the time. Hence, I decided to fall back on finding wedge first.
🎯 Further exploration in finding wedge
This attempt was not too bad. I did not try to jump into Wolfe and nor I bragged anywhere about attempting anything of this sort. My target this time was to find how to derive wedge. I knew then that if I manage to calculate wedge in efficient way, it can help further in finding Wolfe. While doing that, ended up deriving Wedge-and-Flag-Finder-Multi-zigzag - which is not a bad outcome. I got few reminders on Wolfe after this both in comments and in PM.
🎯You never fail until you stop trying!!
After 2 back to back hectic 50hr work weeks + other commitments, I thought I will spend some time on this. Took less than half weekend and here we are. I was surprised how much little time it took in this attempt. But, the plan was running in my subconscious for several weeks or even months. Last two days were just putting these plans into an action.
Now, let's discuss about the script.
🎲 Wolfe Concept
Wolfe concept is simple. Whenever a wedge is formed, draw a line joining pivot 1 and 4 as shown in the chart below:
Converging trendline forms the stop loss whereas line joining pivots 1 and 4 form the profit taking points.
🎲 Settings
Settings are pretty straightforward. Explained in the chart below.
Support/Resistance With Breaks & Bounces [MyTradingCoder]This script uses the built-in pivothigh/pivotlow functions to find and identify new levels of basic support and resistance. The script will also automatically identify the first occurrence of a bounce/rejection off the most recent green/red line as well as automatically identify the first occurrence of a breakout of the most recent green/red line. This is a very basic, but effective indicator that is well written, and open source for anyone to learn from or build off of.
All details needed to understand how to use the script are listed below. Enjoy!
Customizable inputs:
- Option to change how pivot points are calculated('candle body' or 'candle wicks')
- Option to change the sensitivity of the pivots(leftbars and rightbars linked)
- Option to change the line width
Available Alert Options:
- Red Line Breakout
- Red Line Bounce/Rejection
- Green Line Breakout
- Green Line Bounce/Rejection
User Manual:
- All calculations are done on the last update of the bar(candle close)
- Only 1 breakout will be allowed per line
- Only 1 rejection will be allowed per line
- If the text is red, then the signal is related to the 'red line', if the text is green, then the signal is related to the 'green line'
- The code is open source, and is programmed using arrays/loops out of the gate, despite not needing to do so. This allows for easy modifications to the scripts behavior while keeping the functionality without it breaking.
- Pivot Rightbars is hardcoded to the same value for leftbars(leftbars = sensitivity). Uncomment the input for right_bars if you want the ability to change the rightbars independently from the leftbars
- When a new line is identified, the old one will stop updating, and no longer be considered for breakout/rejections. This can be changed with a bit of pine knowledge by performing some slight modifications to the code.
- When a new line is drawn, the old line will move backwards a little bit for cleanliness/clarity purposes
- If you have any questions/comments/requests/concerns please leave them down in the comments below
- Don't forget to leave a like if you find this script useful
Market Bias (CEREBR)Hello Everyone. I hope you are all doing great. It's been a long time since I posted my first script here, and I got a lot of response from that.
So, I thought I should share this script also to everyone, and anyone that may find it useful. Personally, I use it to tell the general market conditions.
Here's how I works : The script tries to determine the overall direction of the market, using smoothed Heiken Ashi candles. The coloring system (using bright and dark colors) is an attempt to detect strong market and weak market conditions. There's also an oscillator within the script, but for now it isn't plotted. Credits to @jackvmk, I used part of his open-script code in this indicator.\
I have considered using the slope of the indicator plot as a filter for ranging market conditions. The plot goes relatively flat in 'flat' markets. However, I have not done anything about that yet. Maybe some other time.
I hope you find this useful. If you find a way to use this, please share it with the community in the comment section.
NOTE: THIS IS BY NO MEANS FINANCIAL ADVICE. You'll have to make your studies and come up with a way to apply this indicator to your trading style and strategy.
By the way, I would be going with the name 'CEREBR' for any subsequent scripts I release from now on.
Happy Trading, guys.
Stochastic Moving AverageHi all,
This Strategy script combines the power of EMAs along with the Stochastic Oscillator in a trend following / continuation manner, along with some cool functionalities.
I designed this script especially for trading altcoins, but it works just as good on Bitcoin itself and on some Forex pairs.
______ SIGNALS ______
The script has 4 mandatory conditions to unlock a trading signal. Find these conditions for a long trade below (works the exact other way round for shorts)
- Fast EMA must be higher than Slow EMA
- Stochastic K% line must be in oversold territory
- Stochastic K% line must cross over Stochastic D% line
- Price as to close between slow EMA and fast EMA
Once all the conditions are true, a trade will start at the opening of the next
______ SETTINGS ______
- Trade Setup:
Here you can choose to trade only longs or shorts and change your Risk:Reward.
You can also decide to adjust your volume per position according to your risk tolerance. With “% of Equity” your stop loss will always be equal to a fixed percentage of your initial capital (will “compound” overtime) and with “$ Amount” your stop loss will always be 'x' amount of the base currency (ex: USD, will not compound)
Stop Loss:
The ATR is used to create a stop loss that matches current volatility. The multiplier corresponds to how many times the ATR stop losses and take profits will be away from closing price.
- Stochastic:
Here you can find the usual K% & D% length and overbought (OB) and oversold (OS) levels.
The “Stochastic OB/OS lookback” increase the tolerance towards OB/OS territories. It allows to look 'x' bars back for a value of the Stochastic K line to be overbought or oversold when detecting an entry signal.
The “All must be OB/OS” refers to the previous “Stochastic OB/OS lookback” parameter. If this option is ticked, instead of needing only 1 OB/OS value within the lookback period to get a valid signal, now, all bars looked back must be OB/OS.
The color gradient drawn between the fast and slow EMAs is a representation of the Stochastic K% line position. With default setting colors, when fast EMA > slow EMA, gradient will become solid blue when Stochastic is oversold and when slow EMA > fast EMA, gradient will become solid blue when Stochastic is overbought
- EMAs:
Just pick your favorite ones
- Reference Market:
An additional filter to be certain to stay aligned with the current a market index trend (in our case: Bitcoin). If selected reference market (and timeframe) is trading above selected EMA, this strategy will only take long trades (vice-versa for shorts) Because, let’s face it… even if this filter isn’t bulletproof, you know for sure that when Bitcoin tanks, there won’t be many Alts going north simultaneously. Once again, this is a trend following strategy.
A few tips for increased performance: fast EMA and D% Line can be real fast… 😉
As always, my scripts evolve greatly with your ideas and suggestions, keep them coming! I will gladly incorporate more functionalities as I go.
All my script are tradable when published but remain work in progress, looking for further improvements.
Hope you like it!
ICT Fair Value Gap [LM]Hello traders,
I would like to present you ICT Fair Value Gap script. The idea is the same as in my other script to look form imbalances. I have improved the previous script from teaching of ICT and created this script to train the eye to see those gaps. Shrinking option also shows if the gap has been already filled and also in case gap is filled you can get alert in case you will set it up .
The script has two settings:
general settings - definition of volatility condition for middle candle
box settings - setting for boxes, box colors, shrinking
I hope you enjoy it,
Lukas
SIMPLE CANDLESTICK PATTERN ALGO BACKTESTING - TESLA 4HMany traders spend a lot of time to create algorithms full of unrealistic and far from reality indicators and market conditions. With this script I want to help traders understand the advantage of the Pine language. Using indicators with no statistical foundation and creating algorithms with technical indicators and thousands of conditions is not always the right way to create an efficient tool.
With this script that we have called "SimpleBarPattern_LongOnly" we analyse the market through a simple condition, using bars or candles.
How it works
The condition is constructed as follows. You go long with 100% of the established capital and 0.03% commission. The first condition is that the minimum of the period under analysis falls below the opening level. The second condition is that the low of the period is below the low of the previous period. The third condition is that the close of the period is above the opening level. The final condition wants the current close to be higher than the previous open and higher than the previous close. We used a statistical approach in the creation of this script, some candlestick patterns that reflect these conditions are: Bullish Engulfing, Bullish Hammer and Morning Star .
This strategy aims to help traders make more accurate decisions while using candlesticks for their trading and scientifically demonstrates that candlesticks are valid statistical tools for financial analysis.
"SimpleBarPattern_LongOnly" is a very lightweight script created with Pine v5. We developed a user interface that can adjust the analysis period from a few days to several years.
The initial capital set is €1,000 (You can change this from the "Properties" section of the user interface).
Each individual trade uses 100% of the set capital, in this case €1,000.
The default commission per trade is 0.03% (You can change this in the "Properties" section of the user interface).
User Interface
1) General backtest time settings: Set the history period to be analysed
StartDate: backtest start date
StartMonth: backtest start month
StartYear: backtest start year
EndDate: backtest end day
EndMonth: backtest end month
EndYear: backtest end year
3) Stop Loss
4) Take Profit
Please do not hesitate to contact us for any questions or information.
Disclaimer
Be careful, the past is not a guarantee of future performance, so remember to use the script as a pure analysis tool. The developer takes no responsibility for any use other than research and analysis and can in no way be held liable for damages resulting from wrong use of this code.
RSI Failure Swings & AO DivergencesHello!
The script identifies RSI divergences, similar to other public scripts; however, RSI failure swings are also distinguished. When a failure swing is identified, the script calculates the highest RSI measurement (bottom failure swing) or the lowest RSI measurement (top failure swing) between the two RSI pivot points. A continually updating line is plotted at the "fail point" until it is penetrated for two sessions! In addition, the script displays the RSI fail point measurement. RSI bearish divergences are only distinguished when both RSI peaks form above 70. bullish divergences are only distinguished when both RSI troughs form below 30. Top failure swings require the initial RSI peak be above 70, the second RSI peak can form at any measurement. Bottom failure swings require the initial RSI trough be below 30, the second RSI trough can form at any measurement.
Included are Awesome Oscillator divergences. The indicator is a bit tricky; the oscillator does not incorporate an upper or lower extremity. Consequently, the script uses interpolated percentiles to characterize relatively high measurements and relatively low measurements. Bearish divergences that form within the 90th - 99th percentile are distinguished, and bullish divergences that form within the 1 - 10th percentile are distinguished. This can CERTAINLY be changed should you copy the source code and think of something better! For AO, white columns reflect a difference measurement >= 0; black bars reflect a difference measurement < 0
The Rush
█ OVERVIEW
This script shows when buyers are in a rush to buy and when sellers are in a rush to sell
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
█ CONCEPTS
Prophet Mohamed Peace be upon Him once said something similar to this "It is not advisable to trade if you do not know the
Volume".
In his book "The Day Trader's Bible - Or My Secret In Day trading Of Stocks", Richard D. Kickoff wrote in page 55
"This shows that there was only 100 shares for sale at 180 1/8, none at all at 180f^, and only 500 at 3/8. The jump from 1 to 8 to 3/8
Emphasizes both the absence of pressure and persistency on the part of the buyers. They are not content to wait patiently until they can
Secure the stock at 180^/4; they "reach" for it."
This script was inspired by these two great men.
Prophet Mohamed Peace be upon Him showed the importance of the volume and Richard D. Kickoff explained what Prophet
Mohamed Peace be upon Him meant.
So I created this script that gauge the movement of the stock and the sentiments of the traders.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
• FEATURES: The script calculates The Percentage Difference of the price and The Percentage Difference of the volume between
two success bullish candles (or two success bearish candles) and then it creates a ratio between these two Percentage
Differences and in the end the ratio is compared to the previous one to see if there is an increase or a decrease.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
• HOW TO USE: if you see 2 or more successive red bars that mean bears are in hurry to sell and you can expect a bearish trend soon
if the Market Maker allows it or later if the Market Maker wants to do some distribution.
if you see 2 or more successive green bars that mean bulls are in hurry to buy and you can expect a bullish trend soon if the Market
Maker allows it or later if the Market Maker wants to do some accumulation.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
• LIMITATIONS:
1- Use only Heikin Ashi chart
2- Good only if volume data is correct , meaning good for a centralized Market. (You can use it for forex or
crypto but at your own risk because those markets are not centralized)
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
• THANKS: I pay homage to Prophet Mohamed Peace be upon Him and Richard D. Kickoff who inspired the creation of this
Script.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
The Strat Numbers & CombosThis indicator is an all-in-one " The Strat " script. This script displays the following:
The Strat candle numbers (1's, 2's, & 3's)
The Strat Combo labels along with trigger line
Pivot Machine Gun ( PMG ) dynamic labels
Hammer & Shooter candle labels
The Strat Candle Numbers label each candle, on any timeframe, either a 1, 2, or 3. 1's are inside bars of the previous candles. 2's take out only one side of the previous candle. And 3's go outside both sides of the previous candle.
The Strat Combo labels (which are made of the 1's, 2's, 3's outlined above) display labels when a Strat Combo occurs. The script displays a label, direction arrow, and trigger line for each Strat Combo. This indicator finds the following Strat Combos:
2-1-2 bullish reversal (BLR)
2-1-2 bullish continuation (BLC)
3-1-2 BLR
3-2-2 BLR
1-2-2 rev strat BLR
2-2 BLR
2-1-2 bearish reversal (BRR)
2-1-2 bearish continuation (BRC)
3-1-2 BRR
3-2-2 BRR
1-2-2 rev strat BRR
2-2 BRR
Double inside candles
The Pivot Machine Gun (PMG) labels any 5 or more consecutive candles that make higher lows or 5 or more consecutive candles that make lower highs. A PMG can continue going in its direction or it can reverse and come back through the range. The logic in this indicator dynamically finds each level in a PMG and draws a line for easy identification.
The script also identifies if the candle type is a Hammer, Inverted Hammer, Shooting Star, or Hanging Man. These candle types are highly likely reversal points in price action.The indicator will plot a shape with a color coded icon identifying the candle. The distance between the shape and the candles can be manually adjusted in the inputs section.
This indicator has many style options . The user can independently toggle on/off the Strat numbers, boxes around the Strat Combos, and Hammer and Shooter shapes. Also all of the colors used in this script can be changed from the inputs section, so a user can easily change colors to match their current color scheme.
Swing Trades Validator - The One TraderThis swing trading strategy validator is built on the original strategy taught in my bootcamp for swing traders.
The strategy is simple and follows a trend trading pattern on prices reacting to Exponential Moving Averages over a multiple time-frame analysis.
The details of the strategy are as follows:
- Holding Period : Upto a couple of months
- Time-frames to be analysed : Month - Week - Day
- Trade Execution : Daily Time-frame
Analysis Details:
Step 1 : On the Monthly time-frame, the candle needs to be bullish with the latest close being higher than the opening price of the month.
Step 2 : The price needs to be above the 8ema on the Monthly time-frame.
Step 3 : The 8ema must be above the 20ema on the Monthly time-frame.
The above steps indicate a bullish strength in the instrument on the Monthly time-frame.
Step 4 : On the Weekly time-frame, the candle needs to be bullish with the latest close being higher than the opening price of the week.
Step 5 : The price needs to be above the 8ema on the Weekly time-frame.
Step 6 : The 8ema must be above the 20ema on the Weekly time-frame.
The above steps indicate a bullish strength in the instrument on the Weekly time-frame.
Step 7 : On the Daily time-frame, the candle needs to be bullish with the latest close being higher than the opening price of the day.
Step 8 : The price needs to be above the 8ema on the Daily time-frame.
Step 9 : The 8ema must be above the 20ema on the Daily time-frame.
The above steps indicate a bullish strength in the instrument on the Daily time-frame.
Step 10 : While the 8ema is above the 20ema on the Daily time-frame, the price must be allowed to rise before a pullback is seen towards the moving averages, indicating a bearish move trying to change the trend.
Step 11 : These pullback candles need to form a pattern called the Ring Low with the second pullback candle having a lower high and lower low and the low of the last pullback candle being lesser than or equal to the fat ema on the Daily time-frame.
Step 12 : If the stock is still bullish and the trend is displaying a strength in the underlying bullish direction, then there will be a resumption candle that will have a closing price higher than the previous day's high price.
This trend continuation signal is a confirmation that the instrument will continue in the underlying trend direction and we will be able to enter if this condition is satisfied.
The profit and loss percentages are set at a default 10% as this can be a minimum risk : reward for swing trades on average, but the inputs have been made available to the users in order to adjust the risk : reward to find the most optimum breathing room for each individual stock or instrument. This will give the user a highly custom overview of the strategy on individual instruments based on their volatility and price movements.
The strategy tester will auto back-test this strategy historically and find all the trades that were taken based on this strategy and populate a performance summary.
The most important data in V1.0 of this script are as follows:
1. No. of Trades Taken : We want to see many trades being taken on this strategy in that particular instrument. This shows us a healthy report on the number of winning vs. losing trades.
2. Percentage Profitable : We want to see that this strategy has worked out in the past and is giving us a high probability of return. This in no way an indication that the strategy will definitely work out in the future as well, but gives us an idea of whether or not we should enter this trade.
3. No. of Winning Trades vs. Losing Trades : We would like to see a significantly higher number of winning trades.
4. Avg. # of bars in a trade : This gives us an idea of how long on average we might have to wait to see the results of this strategy either in favor of our reward or against our desired direction. Some trades can be completed in around 15-20 bars on average and some trades have shown to take upto 45 days to reach desired reward. This is in line with our planned holding period, but gives the trader a sense of time and increased level of patience.
The future updates will have more utility of the various elements of the strategy tester and the entire exit strategy will be integrated into the script.
This script is not to be used as a standalone method and must be studied well in order to execute trades. I have not hidden visibility on other time-frames, but since order execution is done on the Daily time-frame, the script must run on the Daily time-frame only.
There are many other factors to be taken into consideration before entering a trade and proper risk management and position sizing rules must be followed.
Our bootcamp participants will use this strategy tester in conjunction with the invite-only Trading Toolkit assigned to them.
The development of this script will be ongoing and all comments and feedback are welcome.
