ULTRA PLATINUM V51. LONG (BUY) SETUP
When to Enter:
Signal: Wait for a Blue "AL" Label to appear below the candle.
Bar Color: The candle body should turn Green (indicating a strong bullish trend).
Panel Confirmation (Right Corner):
Squeeze Momentum: Should show "MOMENTUM LONG" (Green).
Market Type: Should say "TREND VAR" (Green). If it says "YATAY (RISKLI)" or "CHOPPY", it is better to wait.
EMA Safety: Should say "GÜVENLİ" (Safe).
Action:
Open a Long position at the close of the signal candle.
Stop Loss: Set your SL to the price shown in the Panel under "STOP LOSS".
Take Profit: Set your targets to the prices shown under "KAR AL 1" (TP1) and "KAR AL 2" (TP2).
2. SHORT (SELL) SETUP
When to Enter:
Signal: Wait for an Orange "SAT" Label to appear above the candle.
Bar Color: The candle body should turn Red (indicating a strong bearish trend).
Panel Confirmation:
Squeeze Momentum: Should show "MOMENTUM SHORT" (Red).
Market Type: Should say "TREND VAR".
EMA Safety: Should say "GÜVENLİ".
Action:
Open a Short position at the close of the signal candle.
Stop Loss: Set your SL to the price shown in the Panel under "STOP LOSS".
Take Profit: Use the TP1 and TP2 levels from the Panel.
3. RE-ENTRY STRATEGY (Scaling In)
This feature allows you to increase your position size if the trend continues.
Long Re-Entry: Look for a small Green Triangle below the bar. This means the price pulled back slightly and is now pushing up again (RSI crossover). You can add to your Long position here.
Short Re-Entry: Look for a small Red Triangle above the bar. You can add to your Short position here.
4. CRITICAL WARNINGS (When NOT to Trade)
Gray Candles: If the candles are Gray, the market is indecisive. Avoid entering new positions even if you see a signal.
Squeeze Mode: If the Panel says "SIKIŞMA VAR (BEKLE)" (Squeeze On), it means volatility is very low. A big move is coming, but the direction is uncertain. Wait until the squeeze breaks and the panel changes to Momentum Long or Short.
High Risk: If the panel says "ÇOK YAKIN (RİSK)" regarding the EMA, the price is too close to the 200 EMA. This often acts as a magnet or a wall; proceed with caution.
חפש סקריפטים עבור "entry"
ICT Fair Value Gap Detector [Eˣ]⚡ Fair Value Gap Detector
Overview
The Fair Value Gap Detector automatically identifies price imbalances on your charts - the inefficiencies left behind when price moves too quickly. This indicator reveals where price is likely to return for "rebalancing", based on ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts of market efficiency.
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🎯 What This Indicator Does
Detects Fair Value Gaps:
• 🟢 Bullish FVG - Gap left below during aggressive upward move
• 🔴 Bearish FVG - Gap left above during aggressive downward move
• Automatically identifies 3-candle price inefficiencies
• Works on all timeframes and instruments
Smart Fill Tracking:
• Full Fill - Price completely fills the gap
• 50% Fill - Price fills half the gap (critical level)
• Partial Fill - Price touches gap edge
• Real-time fill percentage tracking
• Auto-removes filled gaps (optional)
Professional Features:
• Active Gap Highlighting - Shows nearest unfilled gap
• Distance Calculator - Displays how far price is from gaps
• Market Bias - Analysis based on gap balance
• Size Filtering - Minimum gap size to avoid noise
• Visual Clarity - Clean boxes with color-coding
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📚 Understanding Fair Value Gaps
What Are Fair Value Gaps?
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), also known as imbalances or inefficiencies, are zones where price moved so quickly that normal trading didn't occur. They represent:
• Price Imbalance - One-sided aggressive buying or selling
• Unfair Pricing - Some participants didn't get to trade at these levels
• Market Inefficiency - Supply/demand equilibrium was disrupted
• Rebalancing Zones - Price often returns to "fill" these gaps
The ICT Concept:
Markets constantly seek equilibrium (fair value). When price moves too fast:
1. It leaves gaps where normal trading didn't happen
2. These gaps represent unfair/inefficient pricing
3. Market has a tendency to return and "rebalance"
4. Smart money knows this and trades the fills
Why FVGs Work:
• Unfilled Orders - Traders who missed the move have pending orders in the gap
• Algorithmic Trading - Algos programmed to exploit inefficiencies
• Market Psychology - Traders notice gaps and place orders there
• Institutional Behavior - Smart money uses gaps for entries/exits
FVG vs Regular Gaps:
• Regular Gaps - Occur at market open, between daily closes
• Fair Value Gaps - Occur intraday, between 3 consecutive candles
• FVGs happen more frequently and on all timeframes
• FVGs are more tradeable for intraday/swing traders
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🟢 Bullish Fair Value Gaps Explained
How They Form:
Bullish FVG requires 3 candles:
1. Candle 1 - Any candle (sets the high reference)
2. Candle 2 - Strong bullish candle (aggressive buying)
3. Candle 3 - Continuation candle
The Gap: Candle 3's LOW is above Candle 1's HIGH = Gap left unfilled
Visual Example:
```
Candle 3: Low at $105 ──────────┐
│ ← GAP (Bullish FVG)
Candle 2: Strong bullish │
│
Candle 1: High at $100 ──────────┘
```
What It Means:
• Price jumped from $100 to $105+ so fast, no trading occurred in between
• This $100-$105 zone is "unfair" - buyers/sellers didn't get to trade there
• Market may return to this zone to "rebalance"
• When price returns, it often acts as support
Trading Bullish FVGs:
Strategy:
• Wait for price to retrace down into the bullish FVG (green box)
• Look for rejection/bounce from the gap zone
• Enter long when price respects the FVG as support
• Stop loss: Below the FVG
• Target: Previous high or opposite FVG
Best Entry Points:
• 50% Fill: Price enters middle of gap (highest probability)
• Full Fill: Price touches bottom of gap (aggressive entry)
• Tap & Reject: Price quickly enters and exits gap (strong signal)
Example Trade:
• Bullish FVG forms: $50,000 - $50,500 (500 point gap)
• Price rallies to $52,000 then retraces
• Price drops to $50,250 (50% of gap filled)
• Bullish reversal candle appears
• Enter long at $50,500, stop at $49,800
• Target: $52,000+
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🔴 Bearish Fair Value Gaps Explained
How They Form:
Bearish FVG requires 3 candles:
1. Candle 1 - Any candle (sets the low reference)
2. Candle 2 - Strong bearish candle (aggressive selling)
3. Candle 3 - Continuation candle
The Gap: Candle 3's HIGH is below Candle 1's LOW = Gap left unfilled
Visual Example:
```
Candle 1: Low at $100 ───────────┐
│ ← GAP (Bearish FVG)
Candle 2: Strong bearish │
│
Candle 3: High at $95 ───────────┘
```
What It Means:
• Price dropped from $100 to $95 so fast, no trading occurred in between
• This $95-$100 zone is "unfair" - buyers/sellers didn't get to trade there
• Market may return to this zone to "rebalance"
• When price returns, it often acts as resistance
Trading Bearish FVGs:
Strategy:
• Wait for price to retrace up into the bearish FVG (red box)
• Look for rejection/reversal from the gap zone
• Enter short when price respects the FVG as resistance
• Stop loss: Above the FVG
• Target: Previous low or opposite FVG
Best Entry Points:
• 50% Fill: Price enters middle of gap (highest probability)
• Full Fill: Price touches top of gap (aggressive entry)
• Tap & Reject: Price quickly enters and exits gap (strong signal)
Example Trade:
• Bearish FVG forms: $48,000 - $48,500 (500 point gap)
• Price drops to $46,000 then retraces
• Price rallies to $48,250 (50% of gap filled)
• Bearish reversal candle appears
• Enter short at $48,000, stop at $48,700
• Target: $46,000-
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📊 How To Use This Indicator
Strategy 1: FVG Rebalancing (Classic)
Best For: Swing trading, reversal trading
Timeframes: 15min, 1H, 4H
Win Rate: 65-75%
Entry Rules:
1. Identify unfilled FVG (bright color, not gray)
2. Wait for price to return to the gap
3. Best entry: 50% fill of the gap
4. Look for reversal confirmation:
• Bullish FVG: Pin bar, engulfing, hammer
• Bearish FVG: Shooting star, bearish engulfing
5. Enter when price bounces/rejects from FVG
6. Stop: Beyond opposite side of FVG
7. Target: 2-3R or previous high/low
Why It Works: 70%+ of FVGs get filled, and 60%+ show reaction
Strategy 2: FVG + Order Block Confluence
Best For: High-probability setups
Timeframes: 1H, 4H
Win Rate: 75-85%
Entry Rules:
1. Find FVG that overlaps with Order Block
2. This creates a "super zone" of confluence
3. Wait for price to return to this zone
4. Enter on first touch of confluence zone
5. Stop: Beyond the confluence zone
6. Target: 3-4R
Why It Works: Double institutional concepts = highest probability
Strategy 3: Multi-Timeframe FVG
Best For: Position trading, major moves
Timeframes: Combine Daily + 4H or 4H + 1H
Win Rate: 70-80%
Entry Rules:
1. Identify large FVG on higher timeframe (Daily/4H)
2. Wait for price to enter this HTF FVG
3. Switch to lower timeframe (4H/1H)
4. Look for LTF FVG within HTF FVG in same direction
5. Trade the LTF FVG fill
6. Stop: Below LTF FVG
7. Target: Exit HTF FVG or beyond
Why It Works: Timeframe alignment = institutional consensus
Strategy 4: FVG Rejection Trade
Best For: Quick scalps, day trading
Timeframes: 5min, 15min
Win Rate: 60-70%
Entry Rules:
1. Price enters FVG zone
2. Immediate rejection (strong reversal candle)
3. Enter on close of rejection candle
4. Tight stop beyond FVG
5. Quick target: 1-2R
Why It Works: Strong rejection = institutional defense of level
Strategy 5: FVG-to-FVG Trading
Best For: Momentum trading
Timeframes: 15min, 1H
Win Rate: 55-65%
Entry Rules:
1. Identify bullish FVG below and bearish FVG above
2. Enter long at bullish FVG, target bearish FVG
3. Or enter short at bearish FVG, target bullish FVG
4. Price often moves from one imbalance to another
5. Stop: Beyond trading FVG
6. Target: Opposite FVG
Why It Works: Price rebalances from one inefficiency to another
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⚙️ Settings Explained
Display Settings
Show Bullish/Bearish FVG
• Toggle each type on/off independently
• Customize colors for each FVG type
• Default: Green (bullish), Red (bearish)
• Tip: Use colors that contrast with your chart
Max FVG to Display (Default: 20)
• Limits how many gaps are shown at once
• Lower (10-15): Cleaner chart, recent gaps only
• Higher (30-50): More historical context
• Recommended: 15-25 for most trading
Show FVG Labels (Default: ON)
• Displays "FVG+" and "FVG-" text on gaps
• Shows 🎯 on active (nearest) gap
• Shows fill percentage (e.g., "FVG+ 35%")
• Turn OFF for minimal appearance
• Recommended: Keep ON for clarity
Extend Gaps (bars) (Default: 50)
• How far to extend gap boxes to the right
• Lower (20-30): Shorter boxes
• Higher (100+): Longer boxes, easier to see
• Gaps auto-extend until filled or limit reached
• Recommended: 40-60 bars
Filters
Min Gap Size % (Default: 0.05)
• Minimum gap size as percentage of price
• Filters out tiny, insignificant gaps
• Crypto: 0.05-0.15% (high volatility)
• Forex: 0.03-0.10% (moderate volatility)
• Stocks: 0.05-0.20% (varies by stock)
• Indices: 0.05-0.15%
• Adjust based on instrument's average move
Show Filled Gaps (Default: OFF)
• When ON: Shows gray boxes for filled gaps
• When OFF: Gaps disappear after mitigation
• Use ON: For learning and backtesting
• Use OFF: For clean, active trading view
Advanced Settings
Auto-Detect Mitigation (Default: ON)
• Automatically tracks when gaps are filled
• Updates fill percentage in real-time
• Marks gaps as "mitigated" when filled
• Recommended: Keep ON
Mitigation Type (Default: Full)
• Full: Gap considered filled when price closes through entire gap
• 50%: Gap considered filled at 50% (critical level)
• Partial: Gap considered filled on first touch
• For learning: Use "Full"
• For aggressive trading: Use "50%"
• For conservative trading: Use "Partial"
Highlight Nearest Gap (Default: ON)
• Highlights the closest unfilled gap to current price
• Active gap shown with 🎯 emoji and brighter color
• Helps focus on most relevant opportunity
• Recommended: Keep ON
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📱 Info Panel Guide
Bullish FVG Count
• Number of active (unfilled) bullish fair value gaps
• Higher number = More potential support zones below
• Multiple bullish FVGs = Strong rebalancing demand
Bearish FVG Count
• Number of active (unfilled) bearish fair value gaps
• Higher number = More potential resistance zones above
• Multiple bearish FVGs = Strong rebalancing supply
Bias Indicator
• ⬆ Bullish: More bullish FVGs than bearish
• ⬇ Bearish: More bearish FVGs than bullish
• ↔ Neutral: Equal FVGs on both sides
• Market tends to fill nearby gaps first
Target Indicator
• Shows nearest unfilled gap and distance
• Example: "Bull FVG -1.25%" = Bullish gap is 1.25% below price
• Example: "Bear FVG +0.85%" = Bearish gap is 0.85% above price
• Watch for price to reach these targets
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📱 Alert Setup
This indicator includes 4 alert types:
1. Price Entering Bullish FVG
• Fires when price drops into a bullish gap
• Action: Watch for bounce/reversal
• High-probability long setup developing
2. Price Entering Bearish FVG
• Fires when price rallies into a bearish gap
• Action: Watch for rejection/reversal
• High-probability short setup developing
3. New Bullish FVG Detected
• Fires when a new bullish gap forms
• Action: Mark zone for future fill
• New rebalancing target below identified
4. New Bearish FVG Detected
• Fires when a new bearish gap forms
• Action: Mark zone for future fill
• New rebalancing target above identified
To Set Up Alerts:
1. Click "Alert" button (clock icon)
2. Select "Fair Value Gap Detector"
3. Choose your alert condition
4. Configure notification method
5. Click "Create"
Pro Tip: Set "Price Entering" alerts to catch fills in real-time
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💎 Pro Tips & Best Practices
✅ DO:
• Wait for 50% fill - Middle of gap has highest win rate (65-70%)
• Use confirmation - Don't trade just because price touched gap
• Combine with structure - FVG + support/resistance = high probability
• Trade first fill - Unfilled gaps have better success rate than refilled
• Respect full fills - Once fully filled, gap is less reliable
• Use multiple timeframes - HTF FVGs are stronger than LTF
• Check session timing - FVGs work best during London/NY sessions
• Follow the bias - More bullish FVGs = favor longs
⚠️ DON'T:
• Don't blindly fade gaps - Wait for price action confirmation
• Don't ignore momentum - Strong trends can blow through FVGs
• Don't trade every gap - Quality over quantity
• Don't assume all gaps fill - About 70-80% fill, 20-30% don't
• Don't use tight stops - Allow room for wick into gap
• Don't overtrade - Wait for confluence and confirmation
• Don't fight trends - Best FVG trades are with higher TF trend
• Don't ignore fill percentage - 50% is often the sweet spot
🎯 Best Timeframes:
• Scalpers: 1min, 5min (many gaps, quick fills)
• Day Traders: 5min, 15min, 1H (balanced)
• Swing Traders: 1H, 4H, Daily (larger, more reliable gaps)
• Position Traders: 4H, Daily, Weekly (major imbalances)
🔥 Best Instruments:
• Excellent: BTC, ETH, ES, NQ, Forex majors (clean price action)
• Good: Gold, Oil, Major indices, Large-cap stocks
• Moderate: Altcoins, small-cap stocks (more noise)
• Best Markets: Trending markets with clear swings
⏰ Best Times for FVG Trading:
• London Session: High volume = reliable gap fills
• NY Session: Strong moves create quality gaps
• London-NY Overlap: Best time for gap creation and fills
• Asian Session: Lower probability, wait for London
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🎓 Advanced FVG Concepts
FVG Mitigation Levels
Understanding fill percentages:
• 0-25% Fill: Gap barely touched, often continues without fill
• 25-50% Fill: Partial rebalancing, may reverse here
• 50% Fill: CRITICAL LEVEL - Highest probability reversal zone
• 50-75% Fill: Deep rebalancing, strong reversal likely
• 75-100% Fill: Full rebalancing, gap's purpose fulfilled
Why 50% Matters: Market seeks equilibrium, and 50% represents perfect balance
FVG Inversions
When price breaks through a gap completely:
• Bullish FVG that's broken becomes bearish (support → resistance)
• Bearish FVG that's broken becomes bullish (resistance → support)
• Inverted gaps are weaker than fresh gaps
• Trading: Can fade the inverted gap but with caution
FVG Confluence Zones
Multiple FVGs at similar level:
• Creates "super gap" or confluence zone
• Much higher probability of reaction
• Wider zone for entries (more room for stops)
• Often aligns with other institutional concepts
FVG + Order Block Combo
When FVG overlaps with Order Block:
• Double institutional concept
• Extremely high probability setup (75-85% win rate)
• Price drawn to fill gap AND test order block
• Use tight stops, generous targets (3-5R possible)
Nested FVGs (Multi-Timeframe)
Small FVG inside larger FVG:
• Daily FVG contains 4H FVG contains 1H FVG
• Trade the smallest FVG in direction of larger ones
• Highest probability when all aligned
• Progressive targets: Fill small → medium → large gaps
FVG Exhaustion
When price creates multiple FVGs in same direction:
• Indicates strong momentum/impulsive move
• Each gap represents acceleration
• Last gap often signals exhaustion
• Watch for reversal after filling final gap
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📈 Common FVG Patterns
Pattern 1: The Perfect Rebalance
• FVG forms during strong move
• Price continues 100+ pips
• Clean return to 50% of gap
• Immediate reversal
• Textbook setup, 70%+ win rate
Pattern 2: The Double Fill
• Price partially fills gap (25%)
• Weak reaction, continues
• Returns again for deeper fill (75%)
• Strong reversal on second fill
• Second fill often better entry
Pattern 3: The Blow-Through
• Price approaches gap
• Completely ignores it, no reaction
• Keeps going in same direction
• Sign of very strong momentum
Pattern 4: The Magnet Effect
• Price slowly grinds toward gap
• Accelerates as it gets close
• Quickly fills and reverses
• Common in ranging markets
Pattern 5: The False Fill
• Price wicks into gap briefly
• Immediately reverses without filling
• "Stop hunt" or liquidity grab
• Gap remains unfilled
• Often precedes strong move
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🚀 What Makes This Different?
Unlike basic gap indicators, Fair Value Gap Detector:
• ICT Methodology - Based on proven institutional concepts
• Real-Time Fill Tracking - Shows percentage filled as it happens
• 3 Mitigation Types - Full, 50%, Partial for different strategies
• Active Gap Highlighting - Shows most relevant opportunity
• Smart Filtering - Minimum size to avoid noise
• Visual Clarity - Clean, professional appearance
• Auto-Management - Removes filled gaps automatically
• Distance Tracking - Know exactly where price needs to go
Based On Professional Concepts:
• ICT Fair Value Gap theory
• Market efficiency principles
• Price rebalancing dynamics
• Institutional order flow analysis
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📈 FVG Statistics & Probabilities
Based on ICT concepts and trader observations:
Gap Fill Rates:
• 70-80% of FVGs get filled eventually
• 60-70% show some reaction when filled
• 50% fill level has ~65% reversal rate
• Full fills have ~55% reversal rate
Timeframe Reliability:
• Daily FVGs: ~75-85% fill rate, strongest reactions
• 4H FVGs: ~70-80% fill rate, strong reactions
• 1H FVGs: ~65-75% fill rate, good reactions
• 15min FVGs: ~60-70% fill rate, moderate reactions
• 5min FVGs: ~55-65% fill rate, weaker reactions
Best Practices:
• First touch of gap = 65-70% win rate
• 50% fill = 65% win rate
• FVG + Order Block = 75-85% win rate
• Multi-timeframe aligned FVG = 70-80% win rate
• FVG in trending market = 60-70% win rate
Common Failures:
• Strong momentum blows through gaps (20-30% of time)
• Gaps in low-volume periods less reliable
• Very small gaps (<0.05%) often ignored
• Counter-trend gaps have lower success rate
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🙏 If You Find This Helpful
• ⭐ Leave your feedback
• 💬 Share your experience in the comments
• 🔔 Follow for updates and new tools
Questions about Fair Value Gaps? Feel free to ask in the comments.
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Version History
• v1.0 - Initial release with 3-candle FVG detection and real-time fill tracking
SM OB Intraday Bot AssistantSM OB Intraday Bot Assistant is an intraday tool built around Smart Money Concepts (SMC). It focuses on market structure, Order Blocks and mitigation, and then turns them into a complete trade plan with entry, adaptive stop-loss and structured take-profit levels.
────────────────────
1. Concept & purpose
────────────────────
The script is designed for intraday trading on 15m–1h timeframes. It automates a classic SMC workflow:
1) Detect swing structure and Break Of Structure (BOS).
2) Identify bullish/bearish Order Blocks (OB) and Hidden Order Blocks (HOB).
3) Filter them using impulse strength, volume and Fib/OTE confluence.
4) Build a trade idea: Entry, Stop-Loss, TP1, TP2, TP3.
5) Track trade status and basic statistics on chart.
The source is protected (invite-only), but the logic below describes how the script works so traders can understand and use it.
────────────────────
2. Structure, BOS and FVG
────────────────────
• Swings are detected using configurable swing length.
• BOS is confirmed only when:
– Price closes beyond the last swing high/low by a minimum tick distance.
– The break candle is an impulse: its body must exceed a minimum ATR fraction and a minimum Body/Range ratio.
• Optional filter: the BOS candle must also create a 3-bar Fair Value Gap (FVG).
This helps the script focus on meaningful breaks instead of random noise.
────────────────────
3. Order Blocks & Hidden OBs
────────────────────
After a valid BOS, the script looks back for the last opposite candle to define an Order Block:
• Only small-body candles are considered (body ≤ X% of total range), with a minimum OB height in ticks.
• OBs can be built using either candle bodies or full wicks.
• Hidden OBs (HOBs) are marked when price creates same-bias FVGs further in the direction of the BOS, while the original OB remains unmitigated.
• Each OB is stored as a box that can be:
– Extended to the right,
– Limited to N bars, or
– Kept only at its origin.
Mitigation state is tracked for each OB:
• 0 = untouched
• 1 = partially mitigated
• 2 = fully mitigated
The user can choose which mitigation states to display.
────────────────────
4. Fib / OTE confluence
────────────────────
The script automatically builds the last significant leg between swing low and swing high and computes:
• Fib levels 0.618 / 0.705 / 0.786
• An OTE band (roughly between the 62–79% retracement area)
An OB is marked as “in confluence” when its midpoint is near these Fib levels or inside the OTE band, with tolerance based on ATR. This allows traders to focus on OBs that align with both structure and retracement logic.
────────────────────
5. Volume filter
────────────────────
For each OB, the script compares its candle volume to a volume moving average:
• If enabled, only OBs with volume ≥ (multiplier × volume MA) are considered valid for entries.
This acts as a simple high-volume filter to ignore weak zones that form on low participation.
────────────────────
6. Trade logic and “smart” levels
────────────────────
When a new qualified OB appears and meets the filters, the script builds a full intraday trade plan:
• Entry:
– Taken from the midpoint of the OB (PIN / mid-zone), not from an arbitrary price.
• Stop-Loss:
– For longs: behind the nearest meaningful low (recent swing low or OB low).
– For shorts: behind the nearest meaningful high (recent swing high or OB high).
– The SL is then capped so that its distance never exceeds the distance to TP1.
This keeps risk under control and avoids oversized stops.
• Take Profits (TP1, TP2, TP3):
– Targets are not fixed percentages of stop.
– The script computes a “base unit” using:
• distance to the next structure level,
• ATR,
• OB height,
• and a minimum percentage of price.
– TP1, TP2, TP3 are multiples of this base unit, so all targets are tied to volatility and structure, not random numbers.
This makes the levels more realistic for intraday trading compared to simple R-multiples.
────────────────────
7. Execution control
────────────────────
• Only one active trade at a time can be enforced if desired.
• The script can block opening a new trade in the same direction while the previous one is still active.
• OBs can expire on first touch if the user prefers to keep the chart clean.
────────────────────
8. Trade panel & statistics
────────────────────
The script includes a compact on-chart table showing:
• Direction: LONG / SHORT
• Entry price
• Stop-Loss
• TP1, TP2, TP3
• Current trade status:
– “Waiting”, “In play”, “TP1 hit”, “TP2 hit”, “TP3 hit”, “SL hit”, etc.
• Rolling win rate (WR) over the last 100 trades, based on TP1 vs SL.
This allows traders to visually follow the logic of the system and its recent performance without having to read code.
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9. Alerts and automation
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The indicator exposes alert conditions for:
• New bullish / bearish OB
• Mitigation of bullish / bearish OB
• Trade entry signals (LONG / SHORT)
It can also format alerts as JSON-style messages containing entry, SL and TP levels, so that external tools, webhooks or custom bots can parse and act on them. This makes it easier to connect the script to automated execution, while the trade logic and risk parameters remain fully controlled inside the indicator.
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10. Usage notes
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• Recommended environment: intraday crypto or FX on 15m–1h.
• Best use cases:
– Focusing on high-quality OBs with structural and Fib/OTE confluence.
– Using the generated Entry/SL/TP1–TP3 as a consistent intraday playbook.
– Feeding signals into external automation via alerts.
This script is not a guarantee of profits and is not financial advice. It is a framework that formalizes a specific Smart Money style approach (BOS → OB/HOB → mitigation → confluence → structured targets) so traders can apply it systematically in their own strategies.
Opening Range & Session Liquidity [LTS]“Opening Range & Session Liquidity ” is an intraday planning tool that combines a configurable Opening Range box with session highs/lows and previous-day reference levels. It is designed to help you visualize where liquidity is likely to build up around the cash open and major global sessions, without making any forecasts or performance promises. It is designed with our signature attention to user customization and accessibility.
Opening Range & Bias
The script builds a configurable Opening Range (OR) in New York time (default 08:00–08:15 on a 15-minute basis), regardless of your chart timeframe (up to 1-hour). The high, low, and midline of this window are drawn as a transparent box and dashed midline that extend forward so you can see how the session trades around that range.
At a user-defined Bias Check Time (default 09:30–09:31 NY), the script classifies the OR as:
Bullish if price is above the OR high
Bearish if price is below the OR low
Neutral if price is still trading inside the OR
The box color updates to reflect the current bias if bias mode is enabled. All OR parameters (formation window, bias check, colors, maximum number of zones, etc.) are adjustable.
Entry Signal Logic
The indicator can optionally generate non-repainting visual signals when price interacts with the OR midline.
1. 9:30 Bias mode (trend-following)
A directional bias is locked in at the bias check time.
Signals trigger only when price trades through the OR midline inside the box, aligned with that bias:
Bullish bias → long signal when price touches the midline from below and closes inside the range.
Bearish bias → short signal when price touches the midline from above and closes inside the range.
Each “episode” can fire only once; signals are confirmed on the bar where the conditions first become true.
2. Entry Direction mode (reaction to first touch)
Instead of using a fixed 9:30 bias, the script detects from which side price first enters the OR (from above or from below).
That “entry direction” stays active until price fully exits and closes outside the OR again.
When price later touches the midline while the entry direction is defined, a single long or short signal is triggered based on the stored direction of entry.
In both modes, historical signals are plotted without using future data; only the real-time bar can change state until it closes.
Optional TP/SL Visualization
When a long or short signal appears, the script can draw simple take-profit/stop-loss boxes to illustrate a basic one-trade idea:
Stop-loss distance can be defined as:
A fixed number of points beyond the OR high/low, or
A percentage of ATR (configurable length and percent).
Take-profit is automatically placed at a user-defined risk-to-reward multiple of that stop distance.
The boxes extend forward bar by bar and stop updating once either TP or SL is touched, or when a new OR session resets the context.
These boxes are for visualization only and do not place or manage orders.
Session Liquidity & PDH/PDL
To help you map where liquidity frequently builds up, the script tracks three configurable intraday sessions in New York time:
Asian session (default 18:00–02:00)
London session (default 03:00–08:00)
New York session (default 09:30–16:00)
For each completed session, the indicator records the session high and low, then:
Draws solid horizontal lines and labels (e.g., “Asia Hi/Lo”, “London Hi/Lo”, “NY Hi/Lo”).
Extends these solid lines to the right as long as they remain untouched by price.
When price first trades through a level, the solid line is cut at that bar and replaced by a dashed line that extends only until the next session of the same type begins.
Older sessions are automatically removed according to the “Max Sessions to Display” setting to reduce chart clutter.
In addition, the indicator plots:
Previous Day High (PDH) & Previous Day Low (PDL)
Previous Day Point of Control (PDPoC) – an approximate volume-weighted price computed from intraday data using a simple binning approach on a user-chosen lower timeframe.
Like the session levels, PDH/PDL/PDPoC start as solid lines. After the first touch, each level switches to a dashed style and continues only until the following trading day, at which point the previous day’s dashed lines are stopped and new levels are created.
Info Table & Multi-Timeframe Logic
An optional on-chart info table summarizes the most recent Opening Range:
OR high, low, and midline
Current OR range in points
Active mode (9:30 Bias vs. Entry Direction)
Current bias or entry-direction status
Whether a signal is “Waiting”, “Armed”, or “Triggered”
Whether the OR was built from the chart timeframe or from a 15-minute higher-timeframe feed
If your chart timeframe is higher than the OR calculation timeframe, the script automatically uses multi-timeframe data to build a consistent OR, while enforcing a maximum chart timeframe of 1-hour for reliability.
How to Use This Tool
Use the OR box and bias to define your primary intraday context around the cash open.
Use session highs/lows and PDH/PDL/PDPoC as objective reference levels for where price may react or where stops and liquidity might cluster.
Treat the signal markers and TP/SL boxes as visual guides only. They can help you structure trade ideas, but they are not a trading system by themselves.
Always confirm levels and signals with your own analysis, risk management, and execution rules.
Limitations & Notes
The script is intended for intraday charts up to 1-hour. By the nature of the information being displayed, any time frame above that may result is undesirable visual clutter.
The POC calculation is an approximation based on lower timeframe bar-level volume and binning; it is not a tick-by-tick volume profile.
Signals and levels update in real time on the current forming bar. Once a bar closes, completed historical signals do not repaint, but the last live bar can change until it closes.
The indicator does not use lookahead or offset plotting into the past; it is not designed to predict the future or guarantee any particular trading result.
Always test settings on a demo environment first and manage risk according to your own plan.
XΩ — Trade Commander (Global)1. What is XΩ — Trade Commander?
XΩ — Trade Commander (Global) is a post‑entry position management system.
It does not tell you where to enter. Instead, it helps you manage a trade after you are already in:
Dynamic Trailing Stop based on volatility (ATR)
Visual Safe Zone under price
R‑Multiple targets (1R, 2R, 3R) for profit‑taking
A live Position Dashboard with PnL and suggested actions
Exit alert when price breaks the Trailing Stop
Plus a ZERO GENESIS brand signature on the chart
Think of it as a trade commander / position guardian that enforces your risk and trailing rules.
2. Basic setup (Inputs)
In the Active Position Settings group:
Position Active?
Turn ON when you have a live position you want to manage.
Turn OFF when flat (no position), to effectively disable the management logic.
Avg Entry Price
Enter your average entry price (if you scaled in, use your weighted average).
This is the reference for all PnL and R calculations.
Initial Stop Loss
Your original invalidation price (hard stop) when you planned the trade.
Used to define:
The size of 1R (initial risk unit)
The locations of 1R, 2R, 3R targets.
Position Size (Units)
Size of your current position (number of shares/coins/contracts, etc.).
Used to convert PnL into currency value.
In the Trailing Stop Engine group:
Trailing Width (xATR)
Controls how tight/loose the trailing stop is:
Smaller value → tighter, closer to price (protects faster, more likely to get stopped out early)
Larger value → looser, farther from price (lets winners run, accepts more swing)
Source
Price source for the trailing engine:
AVA → smoothed price (reduces noise and “random” stop‑outs)
Close → closing price
High/Low → mid of high & low
In the Take Profit Targets (R-Multiples) group:
Show R-Levels
Turn ON to draw 1R, 2R, 3R reference lines on the chart.
Turn OFF if you prefer a cleaner chart.
3. How to read the indicator on the chart
Once Position Active? is ON and you’ve filled Avg Entry Price / Initial Stop Loss / Position Size, you’ll see:
3.1. Trailing Stop line (“The Shield”)
A blue/gray line below price (for long trades):
It only moves up, never down (ratchet‑style trailing).
When price rises → the trailing stop is adjusted upward.
When price falls → the trailing stop stays in place, not lowered.
Color:
Blue → price is still above the trailing stop (protected, trade is “alive”).
Gray → price is below the trailing stop (trailing has been violated).
Visually, this line is your dynamic protective shield.
3.2. Safe Zone (blue fill)
Light blue fill between price (chosen source) and the Trailing Stop line.
Represents your current buffer:
Thick Safe Zone → good distance to the stop → room for normal volatility.
Thin Safe Zone → close to stop → trade is at risk of being closed.
3.3. Entry & Hard Stop lines
Horizontal lines:
Entry Price → gray dotted line
Initial Stop Loss → solid red line
Helps you always see:
Where the trade started
Where the original invalidation was (your planned “I’m wrong here” level)
3.4. R‑Multiple Targets (1R, 2R, 3R)
When Show R-Levels is ON and Initial Stop Loss is set:
1R: dashed green line, labeled 1R
2R: dashed green line, labeled 2R
3R: dashed green line, labeled 3R (Target)
Use these for:
Planning partial take‑profits
Knowing when it’s reasonable to move your stop (e.g., to breakeven at 1R)
Evaluating your trade in terms of reward vs initial risk
3.5. “POSITION GUARDIAN” Dashboard label
Near the current price, you’ll see a label like:
Title: 🛡️ POSITION GUARDIAN
Inside:
Size: your position size and entry price
PnL: current profit/loss percentage and value (auto‑formatted, e.g. 1.23M, 45K, etc.)
R-Multiple: your current R (e.g., 0.7R, 1.5R, 3.2R)
TRAILING STOP: the current trailing stop price
ACTION: a suggested action string, for example:
🚫 TRAILING HIT -> EXIT NOW!
🚀 RUNNING PROFIT (x.xR) -> Hold or Trim
✅ IN PROFIT (x.xR) -> Move SL to BE
⚠️ DRAWDOWN -> Watch Trailing Stop
🟢 BREAKEVEN -> Holding
The text color changes (red, green, yellow, orange, etc.) to match the situation, so you can read your trade status at a glance.
4. How to use it in practice
Step 1 – Right after entering a trade
Open a position using your own entry strategy (Commander does not give entries).
On the TradingView chart:
Set Position Active? = true
Fill:
Avg Entry Price = your actual entry
Initial Stop Loss = your planned hard stop
Position Size = the size of your position
Adjust:
Trailing Width (xATR):
Lower for tight, short‑term trades (scalp/intraday).
Higher for swing/position trades to avoid premature exits.
Turn Show R-Levels ON if you trade in terms of R.
Now the script will start drawing the Trailing Stop, Safe Zone, R levels, and Dashboard.
Step 2 – While the trade is running
When price moves in your favor:
Track:
Your current R-Multiple
How much Safe Zone you have
Typical logic:
Once you reach ≥ 1R, consider moving your hard stop to breakeven (BE).
Around 2R–3R, consider:
Taking partial profits
Tightening the trailing
Letting the remainder run with the Shield.
When price pulls back:
If price breaks below the Trailing Stop:
Dashboard shows the red warning: TRAILING HIT -> EXIT NOW!
The alert (if enabled) will also fire.
→ This is your disciplined exit condition according to Commander.
When price hovers near entry:
Dashboard shows BREAKEVEN or DRAWDOWN.
You can:
Give the setup more time
Or decide to scratch the trade if it no longer fits your plan
(The key is: you’re deciding based on a clear snapshot, not pure emotion.)
5. Alerts
The script contains one key alert:
XΩ EXIT SIGNAL
Triggers when price crosses under the Trailing Stop.
Message: "Price breached Trailing Stop. Exit position immediately!"
Use this alert to automate your exit discipline: you don’t need to stare at the chart to know when your trailing stop is hit.
Multi-Account Lot Calculator (@JP7FX)Multi-Account Lot Calculator (JP7FX)
Multi-Account Lot Calculator shows a single trade idea across multiple accounts and currencies. It builds a panel on the chart that displays risk per account and the lot size needed for a chosen stop distance and R multiple.
Trade and asset settings
You define the shared trade settings once: direction (long or short), stop loss distance in pips, risk to reward, and entry price or use close.
The script supports Forex, stock, crypto, XAU/USD and index/CFD, with automatic or manual pip size and contract size. It also includes inputs for index point size and value per point when using index or CFD symbols.
Entry, SL and TP visuals
The script plots entry, stop loss and take profit lines on the chart.
Labels can show the exact prices and the R multiple for the take profit.
Optional zones between entry and SL, and entry and TP, can be drawn on the right side of the chart.
A lock feature lets you freeze the trade window and price levels manually or when price touches entry. When locked, the script can keep zones visible using line fills and can auto extend the right edge as new bars print.
Multi account panel
Up to six accounts can be configured at the same time.
For each account you can set:
• a custom name
• account balance
• account currency (USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, JPY)
• risk mode (percent or cash)
• preset risk percent or fixed cash risk
The panel calculates, per account:
• risk amount in that account’s currency
• lot size for the given stop loss distance
Currency conversion
Risk and lot sizing use the symbol’s quote currency and convert it into each account currency with request.currency_rate.
A fallback conversion rate can be set if live data is not available.
Table layout and style
The on-chart table shows columns for Account, CCY, Balance, Mode, R%, Risk Amt and Lot.
You can choose the panel position, border width, title and subheader colours, row colours and optional zebra rows.
Use cases
This tool is intended for traders who run several accounts or prop firm accounts in different currencies and want a single view of position size per account for the same trade idea.
BEM Scalping & Trend Continuation ToolThe BEM Scalping & Trend Continuation Tool highlights 3-candle pullback structures into moving averages and visualizes potential continuation areas within ongoing trends. The script includes two pullback detectors using configurable moving averages, a trend-direction average, VWAP, signal markers, and dynamic swing-level tracking. These elements are designed to support visual analysis of short-term momentum, pullbacks, and structural behavior across different markets and timeframes.
How It Works:
The script identifies descending 3-bar patterns (for bullish pullbacks) and ascending 3-bar patterns (for bearish pullbacks). Pullbacks are highlighted when they interact with a selected moving average and meet additional structural criteria. Optional markers plot when such patterns occur.
Swing levels are detected using pivots, extended forward, and removed when invalidated.
Intended Use:
This tool supports discretionary and rule-assisted chart analysis by highlighting pullbacks, trend context, and market structure. It does not generate predictions or financial advice, and its signals do not imply performance or outcomes.
⭐ Core Features
1️⃣ Highlighted Pullback Bars (Fast + Deep Retracements)
The tool uses two customizable moving averages:
MA1 (default 9) → Fast trend pullback
MA2 (default 45) → Deeper retracement pullback
The script highlights candles when the price creates a structured 3-bar pullback into either moving average. Colors automatically reflect bullish or bearish continuation conditions.
2️⃣ Trend Direction Filter
A longer moving average (default 102) provides directional bias.
This helps traders visually stay aligned with the dominant trend.
3️⃣ VWAP Integration
VWAP is included as a dynamic institutional support/resistance level.
Useful for intraday bias, mean reversion, and trend continuation confluence.
4️⃣ Automated Pullback Signals
Triangle signals appear when a pullback meets all conditions:
Bullish/Short-term long
Bearish/Short-term short
Deep Bullish pullback (MA45)
Deep Bearish pullback (MA45)
These optional markers provide clear visual confirmation.
5️⃣ Smart Swing Lines (Auto-Structure Tracking)
Swing highs and lows are automatically detected and projected forward.
Broken levels self-remove to keep the chart clean.
Great for structure trading, liquidity analysis, and break-of-structure confirmation. To help identify the best possible scenario for the trend continuation pullback work A+.
🔍 How the Pullback Logic Works
The BEM Scalping & Trend Continuation Tool uses a 3-bar structural pattern:
Bullish Pullback Pattern
The High of the first candle needs to be higher than the second one, and the high of the second needs to be higher than the third, moving down in a pullback to the moving average.
Price wicks into MA
Open above MA (rejection)
Continuation expected upward
Bearish Pullback Pattern
The Low of the first candle needs to be lower than the second one, and the low of the second one needs to be lower than the third one, moving upward to the moving average.
Price wicks into MA
Open below MA (rejection)
Continuation expected downward
Bars are highlighted in different colors based on MA1(fast) or MA2(slow and deeper) pullback.
📘 How to Trade the System (Optional Use Case)
(Not predictive; for discretionary workflow support.)
LONG Scenario
Price above Trend MA
Price above VWAP (optional confluence)
Gold (MA9) or Blue (MA45) bullish pullback highlight
Bullish triangle plotted
Entry: candle close or break of signal candle high
Stop: below MA or swing low
Target: next liquidity level, swing high, or trail with MA9
SHORT Scenario
Price below Trend MA
Price below VWAP
Purple (MA9) or Deep Violet (MA45) bearish pullback highlight
Bearish triangle plotted
Entry: candle close or break of signal candle low
Stop: above MA or swing high
Target: next swing low or break structure
*
This tool is for charting and better visualization of pullback and trend continuation only.
It does not guarantee profits.
Always combine with proper risk management.
DCA Ladder CalculatorThis script is a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) Ladder Calculator with Risk & Leverage Management baked in.
It’s designed for both LONG and SHORT positions, and helps you:
🎯 Strategically scale into positions across multiple entry points
🔐 Control risk exposure via defined capital allocation
⚖️ Utilize leverage responsibly — for efficiency, not destruction
🧮 Visualize risk, stop loss level, and entry distribution
🔁 Adapt to trend reversals or key zones, especially when combined with reversal indicators or higher timeframe signals
🧠 How It Works
This tool takes a capital allocation approach to building a ladder of positions:
1. You define:
- Portfolio value
- Risk per trade (as %)
- Leverage
- Number of DCA levels
- Entry multiplier (e.g. 1x, 2x, 4x...)
2. The script then:
- Calculates total margin to risk = Portfolio × Risk %
- Calculates total leveraged position size = Margin × Leverage
- Distributes entries according to exponential weights (1x, 2x, 4x...), totaling 7 for 3 levels
- Calculates per-entry:
- Entry price (based on price zone spacing)
- Multiplier
- Exact margin per entry
- Leverage per entry (margin × leverage)
- Computes:
- Average entry price (margin-weighted)
- Approximate stop loss level based on recent ATR and price structure
- % drawdown to SL
- Total margin and position size
3. Displays all this in a clean on-chart table.
📈 How to Use It
1. Apply the indicator to a chart (default: 1D — ideal for clean zones).
2. Configure your:
- Portfolio Value (total trading capital)
- Risk per Trade (%) (your acceptable loss)
- Leverage (exchange or strategy-based)
- DCA Levels (e.g. 3 = anchor + 2 entries)
- Multiplier (typically 2.0 for doubling)
3. Choose LONG or SHORT mode depending on direction.
4. The table will show:
- Entry price ladder
- Margin used per entry
- Total position size
- Approx. stop loss (where your full risk is defined)
Use in conjunction with price action, S/R zones, trendline breaks, volume divergence, or reversal indicators.
✅ Best Practices for Using This Tool
- Leverage is a tool, not a weapon. Use it to scale smartly — not recklessly.
- Use fewer, higher-conviction entries. Don’t blindly ladder; combine with price structure and signals.
- Stick to your risk percent. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Let this calculator enforce discipline.
- Combine with other confirmation tools, like RSI divergence, momentum shifts, OB zones, etc.
- Avoid martingale-style over-exposure. This is not a gambling tool — it’s for capital efficiency.
🛡️ What This Tool Does NOT Do
- This is not a trade signal indicator.
- It does not place trades or auto-manage positions.
- It does not replace personal responsibility or strategy — it's a tool to help apply structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only.
It does not constitute financial advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Use of leverage involves high risk and can lead to substantial losses.
The author and publisher assume no liability for any trading losses resulting from use of this script.
Bullish Volume RatioBullish Volume Ratio (BVR) Indicator
The Bullish Volume Ratio (BVR) is a sophisticated momentum oscillator designed to measure the true intensity of buying pressure versus selling pressure in the market. It provides a unique, statistically-driven view of market conviction, making it an essential tool for traders who seek to confirm trend health and anticipate major shifts.
BVR achieves its precision by not only assessing net volume but also using proprietary volume weighting logic to gauge the quality of participation in each candle, filtering out market noise to present a clear picture of underlying demand.
Key Features
Statistically-Driven Conviction: The indicator utilizes a Z-Score to measure how far the current BVR reading deviates from its historical average, providing an objective measure of whether buying or selling is truly exceptional or just noise.
Clear Visual Signals: The oscillator plot is designed for clear interpretation on a separate pane, helping you identify regime shifts without cluttering the main price chart.
Real-Time Data Dashboard (Optional): A customizable table on the chart displays the current BVR, Z-score, and other critical volume metrics at a glance.
Simplified Trading Guide
The BVR indicator simplifies volume analysis into clear, actionable signals that can be used for trend confirmation and reversal anticipation.
1. Trend Confirmation
Use the BVR to confirm the momentum of an existing trend:
Bullish Confirmation: When price is trending up, look for the BVR line to be rising and consistently above the center line. This signals that buyers are in firm control and the uptrend has strong volume conviction.
Bearish Confirmation: When price is trending down, look for the BVR line to be falling and deep below the center line. This indicates sellers are dominating the volume profile, confirming the strength of the downtrend.
2. Identifying Trade Entry/Exit Zones
The indicator's Z-Score component is key to spotting extremes that often precede a reversal:
Potential Long Entry: Look for a sustained negative Z-Score followed by a sharp crossover back towards the center line or into positive territory. This can signal that selling pressure has reached an exhaustion point and accumulation (buying) is beginning.
Potential Short Entry: Look for a sustained positive Z-Score followed by a sharp crossover back towards the center line or into negative territory. This suggests that buying momentum is exhausted and distribution (selling) is commencing.
3. The Volume Spike Filter
The indicator also alerts you to candles with significantly high volume relative to the recent average. Use this as a filter:
Breakout Validation: A price breakout is more likely to be legitimate if it is accompanied by a high volume spike confirmed by a strong BVR reading in the direction of the breakout.
Reversal Warning: A high volume spike at a key support or resistance level, particularly one that leads to a sharp turn in the BVR, can strongly signal a climactic reversal in progress.
Quantum Ribbon Lite📊 WHAT IS IT?
Quantum Ribbon Lite is a trend trading indicator built on a 5-layer exponential moving average ribbon system. It analyzes price momentum, volume, and ribbon alignment to generate entry signals with pre-calculated stop loss and take profit levels.
The indicator is designed for traders who want a straightforward approach to trend trading without managing complex configurations.
🔧 HOW IT WORKS
The Ribbon System
The indicator uses 5 pairs of EMAs (10 moving averages total) that create colored "clouds" on your chart:
Blue/Teal ribbons indicate bullish alignment
Red/Pink ribbons indicate bearish alignment
Mixed colors indicate neutral or transitional periods
The ribbon spacing automatically adjusts from a fast EMA (21) to a slow EMA (60), creating layers that show trend strength and direction.
Signal Generation
Signals appear when multiple conditions align:
For LONG signals:
Fast EMAs are above slow EMAs
Price momentum is positive and strong (> 0.5 ATR)
Volume is above average (> 1.1x average)
Ribbon confirms bullish state
Minimum confidence threshold met (filters weak setups)
For SHORT signals:
Fast EMAs are below slow EMAs
Price momentum is negative and strong
Volume is above average
Ribbon confirms bearish state
Minimum confidence threshold met
📈 VISUAL COMPONENTS
Entry Signals
Green "BUY" label = Long entry signal at candle close
Red "SELL" label = Short entry signal at candle close
Signals only trigger on confirmed candle closes (no repainting).
Risk Management Lines
Three lines appear when you have an active position:
White dotted line = Entry price
Red dotted line = Stop loss level
Green dotted line = Take profit target
Performance Dashboard
The stats table shows:
Current position status (In Long/Short or Waiting for signal)
Entry, stop, and target prices when in a trade
Win/loss record
Win rate percentage with color coding
⚙️ SETTINGS
1. Signal Sensitivity (1-10)
Controls the minimum time between signals (cooldown period):
1 = 2 bars between signals (most frequent)
5 = 10 bars between signals (balanced)
10 = 20 bars between signals (most selective)
Lower values generate more signals, higher values filter for better setups.
2. Stop Loss Distance
Determines how stops are calculated using ATR (Average True Range):
Tight = 1.5x ATR from entry
Normal = 2.0x ATR from entry
Wide = 2.5x ATR from entry
ATR adapts to market volatility, so stops are tighter in calm markets and wider in volatile markets.
3. Take Profit Target
Sets your risk-to-reward ratio:
1.5R = Target is 1.5 times your risk
2R = Target is 2 times your risk
3R = Target is 3 times your risk
Example: With a $100 stop distance and 2R setting, your take profit will be $200 away from entry.
4. Show Stats Table
Toggle to show/hide the performance dashboard in the top-right corner.
5. Show Risk Lines
Toggle to show/hide the entry/stop/target lines on the chart.
📋 HOW TO USE
Step 1: Apply to Chart
Add the indicator to your preferred instrument and timeframe (daily recommended).
Step 2: Wait for Signal
A BUY or SELL label will appear on the chart when conditions align.
Step 3: Enter Position
Enter at the close of the signal candle in the indicated direction.
Step 4: Set Risk Parameters Use the displayed lines:
Red line = Your stop loss
Green line = Your take profit
Step 5: Hold Position
Wait for the position to hit either the stop or target. No new signals will appear while you're in a position.
Step 6: Review Results
Check the stats table to track your win rate and adjust settings if needed.
🎯 RISK MANAGEMENT
Stop Loss Calculation
Stops are based on ATR (Average True Range) which measures recent price volatility:
In quiet markets: Stops are placed closer to entry
In volatile markets: Stops are placed further away
This adaptive approach helps prevent stop-hunting while maintaining appropriate risk levels.
Take Profit Calculation
Targets are calculated as a multiple of your stop distance:
If stop is 50 points away and you use 2R, target is 100 points away
Maintains consistent risk-reward ratios across all trades
Required Win Rates To break even after fees:
1.5R requires ~40% win rate
2R requires ~34% win rate
3R requires ~25% win rate
📊 RECOMMENDED USAGE
Timeframes:
Daily charts show strongest performance in testing
4H and 1H timeframes work but may have lower win rates
Lower timeframes generate more signals but reduced quality
Markets:
Works on all instruments: Stocks, Forex, Crypto, Futures, Indices
Best suited for trending markets
May generate false signals in tight ranges or choppy conditions
Multi-TF Harmonic + UT Bot + RSI Scanner [Final Fixed]Overview This indicator is an all-in-one dashboard designed to monitor 4 key timeframes (5m, 15m, 1H, 4H) simultaneously on a single chart. It seeks Confluence by combining the Counter-trend strategy of Harmonic Patterns with the Trend-following strategy of the UT Bot, backed by RSI momentum analysis.
Core Logic
Harmonic Patterns: Detects Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, Crab, Deep Crab, and Cypher patterns. It highlights when the price enters the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
UT Bot: Identifies the current trend direction (Buy/Sell) using ATR Trailing Stop logic with Heikin Ashi smoothing.
RSI: Monitors Overbought (>70) and Oversold (<30) levels.
Signal Conditions
LONG ENTRY: Bullish Pattern + Price in PRZ + UT Bot Buy Trend.
SHORT ENTRY: Bearish Pattern + Price in PRZ + UT Bot Sell Trend.
WATCH: Price is in PRZ, but the trend has not yet aligned with the pattern direction.
How to Use Simply apply this indicator to any chart. The dashboard (default: Bottom Left) will display the status for 5m, 15m, 1H, and 4H timeframes without needing to switch charts.
ASI Momentum CloudASI Momentum Cloud (AMC) — a scaled Accumulative Swing Index (ASI) momentum indicator with an EMA cloud for visual trend context, signal smoothing, and configurable scaling for any instrument.
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## Overview
The ASI Momentum Cloud visualizes ASI-based momentum while providing a three-EMA cloud that highlights trend bias and momentum strength. The indicator scales ASI values for better visibility across different instruments and adds an SMA signal line for entry/exit clarity. Designed for traders who want a momentum oscillator with trend context and simple alertable signals.
## Key features
* Scaled ASI value (`ASI Multiplier`) for improved chart readability.
* Configurable `Daily Limit` to adapt the ASI calculation to different asset volatilities.
* SMA signal line to smooth ASI and provide clear cross signals.
* Three-EMA cloud (Fast / Mid / Slow) to show bullish/bearish bias and momentum shifts.
* Lightweight, low-latency computation — suitable for multiple timeframes.
* Built-in cloud coloring: green tint when Fast EMA > Slow EMA, red tint otherwise.
## How it works (brief)
1. ASI is calculated each bar using price movement components (high/low/close relationships) and normalized by the `Daily Limit`.
2. `ASI Multiplier` scales the values for visual clarity.
3. A short SMA (`Period Length`) acts as the indicator’s signal/smoother.
4. Three EMAs (Fast / Mid / Slow) form a cloud — their relative positions determine the cloud color and trend bias.
## Inputs (as shown in settings)
* **Daily Limit** — numeric; adjusts ASI normalization (default: `10000`). Tune to instrument volatility.
* **ASI Multiplier** — numeric; scales the ASI for visibility (default: `100`).
* **Period Length** — SMA length for the signal line (default: `14`).
* **EMA Cloud Fast Length** — fast EMA (default: `7`).
* **EMA Cloud Mid Length** — middle EMA (default: `14`).
* **EMA Cloud Slow Length** — slow EMA (default: `28`).
## How to interpret signals
* **Bullish bias:** EMA Fast > EMA Slow → cloud green (favour long bias).
* **Bearish bias:** EMA Fast < EMA Slow → cloud red (favour short bias).
* **Momentum entry:** ASI line crossing **above** the Signal SMA — momentum turning positive.
* **Momentum exit / short entry:** ASI line crossing **below** the Signal SMA — momentum turning negative.
* **Confirmation:** Prefer entries that align with cloud bias (e.g., take long crossovers when cloud is green).
* **Divergence:** Watch for price making new highs/lows while ASI fails to confirm — possible momentum exhaustion.
## Suggested alert messages (copy/paste)
* `ASI Momentum Cloud — ASI crossed above Signal (potential buy)`
* `ASI Momentum Cloud — ASI crossed below Signal (potential sell)`
* `ASI Momentum Cloud — Cloud turned bullish (EMA Fast > EMA Slow)`
* `ASI Momentum Cloud — Cloud turned bearish (EMA Fast < EMA Slow)`
Use these messages in TradingView alert conditions tied to the corresponding cross or condition.
## Recommended usage & timeframes
* Works on any timeframe; commonly useful on 1H, 4H, Daily for trend-following, and lower timeframes for intra-day momentum signals.
* Adjust **Daily Limit** and **ASI Multiplier** for low-volatility instruments (smaller limit, higher multiplier) or high-volatility instruments (larger limit, lower multiplier).
* Combine with price action, support/resistance, or higher-timeframe trend for better signal quality.
## Notes & credits
* Version: 1.0 — initial release.
* If you adapt or redistribute, please credit the original script.
* Built for clarity and practical trading signals — tweak the input values to match your instrument and trading style.
## Risk disclaimer
This indicator is a technical tool and not investment advice. Backtest and paper-trade any strategy before using real capital. Use proper risk management.
Gap-Up Momentum Screener (S.S)
ENGLISH-VERSION
1) TradingView Gap Screener (for US stocks)
➤ Conditions
Gap-Up ≥ +3% (large gaps indicate institutional pressure)
Pre-market volume ≥ 150% of the 20-day average
RS line > 50
Price > 50 SMA
Market cap ≥ 1 billion USD
No penny stocks
2) Minervini Gap-Entry Strategy (Swing Trading)
This is a variant specifically optimized for gaps + momentum.
A) Setup Criteria
The stock must meet the following conditions:
Gap-Up ≥ +3%
First retracement ≤ 30% of the gap
High relative strength (RS line rising)
Volume on the gap day > 2× average
Price above 20 EMA, 50 SMA, 150 SMA, 200 SMA
No immediate resistance within 2–5%
B) Entry Setups
Entry 1: First Pullback Entry (FPE)
Wait for the first 1–3 day consolidation.
Entry → Breakout of the small range.
Stop → Below the low of the pullback.
Rule: No entry on the gap day itself.
Entry 2: High Tight Flag above the Gap
Stock rises > 10% after the gap
Then forms a 3–8 day sideways phase
Entry → Break above the flag’s high
Stop → Below the flag base
Entry 3: ORB Entry (Opening Range Breakout, 30 minutes)
Very effective for strong gaps.
Wait 30 minutes after the market opens
Entry → Break above the high of these first 30 minutes
Stop → Below the 30-minute low
C) Stop Levels
For FPE: 4–8%
For ORB: 1–2 × ATR(14)
For flags: 3–5%
D) Add Rules
Only if the stock continues showing strong volume:
Add on every new 3–5 day high
Add only above half-range levels
Maximum 3 adds
3) Early-Warning Module (Setup forming but not ready for entry)
This module marks stocks that are forming a setup but are not yet buyable.
➤ Criteria
Gap-Up ≥ 3%
Strong volume
Stock pulls back and consolidates (1–5 bars)
BUT no breakout yet
4) Exact Entry Checklist (Minervini-style, optimized for gaps)
Checklist before entry:
Gap ≥ +3%
20 EMA rising
Volume > 2× average
RS line rising
Price > 50 SMA
Pullback not deeper than 30% of the gap
3+ green signals from the Early-Warning diamonds
If all 7 are fulfilled → green light.
5) How to apply the strategy in daily practice
Morning (08:00–09:00)
Check the screener
Build your watchlist
Identify gaps
US Market Open (15:30)
Monitor the Early-Warning module
Sort gap momentum opportunities
16:00–17:00
Enter: First Pullback / ORB / Flag
Set stops
Determine position size based on risk
After 20:00
Check volume strength
If momentum fades → no more adds
Confluence Engine [BullByte]CONFLUENCE ENGINE
Multi-Factor Technical Analysis Framework
OVERVIEW
Confluence Engine is a multi-dimensional technical analysis framework that evaluates market conditions across five distinct analytical pillars simultaneously. Rather than relying on a single indicator or signal source, this tool synthesizes Structure, Momentum, Volume, Volatility, and Pattern analysis into a unified scoring system that identifies high-probability trading opportunities when multiple technical factors align.
The core philosophy behind this indicator stems from a fundamental observation: isolated signals frequently fail, but when multiple independent analytical methods agree, the probability of a successful trade increases substantially. This indicator was developed after extensive research into why traders often receive conflicting signals from different indicators on their charts, leading to analysis paralysis and poor decision-making.
THE PROBLEM AND SOLUTION
The Problem:
Most traders use multiple indicators independently, often receiving contradictory signals. One indicator says "buy" while another says "wait." This creates confusion and leads to missed opportunities, premature entries based on incomplete analysis, difficulty quantifying how strong a setup actually is, and inconsistent decision-making across different market conditions.
The Solution:
Confluence Engine addresses this by providing a single, unified score (0-100) that represents the aggregate strength of a trading setup. Instead of mentally weighing five different indicators, traders receive a clear numerical score indicating setup quality, visual tier classification (ULTRA, HIGH, STANDARD), specific identification of which factors are strong or weak, and actionable guidance on what to watch for next.
THE FIVE ANALYTICAL DIMENSIONS
Each dimension was selected because it measures a fundamentally different aspect of market behavior:
STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
Evaluates price position relative to key levels and recent swing points. Markets respect structure - previous highs, lows, and areas where price reversed. This dimension identifies when price interacts with these critical levels and measures the quality of that interaction.
What it detects: Price approaching or sweeping swing highs/lows, reclaim patterns after false breakouts, EMA alignment and trend structure, exhaustion after extended moves.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS
Measures the underlying strength and direction of price movement. Strong moves are characterized by momentum preceding price. This dimension evaluates whether momentum supports the current price direction.
What it detects: Oversold/overbought conditions with reversal potential, momentum divergence states, directional movement strength (ADX-based), momentum shifts before price confirmation.
VOLUME ANALYSIS
Volume validates price movement. Significant moves require participation. This dimension measures current volume relative to recent averages to determine if market participants are genuinely committing to the move.
What it detects: Volume spikes confirming price action, below-average volume warning of weak moves, climactic volume at potential reversals, volume confirmation of rejection patterns.
VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
Markets alternate between compression (low volatility) and expansion (high volatility). This dimension identifies these phases and recognizes when compression is likely to resolve into directional movement.
What it detects: Volatility squeeze conditions (Bollinger inside Keltner), squeeze release direction, ATR expansion indicating breakout potential, compression duration for timing breakouts.
PATTERN ANALYSIS
Candlestick patterns reflect the battle between buyers and sellers within each bar. This dimension evaluates the quality and context of reversal and continuation patterns.
What it detects: Engulfing patterns with quality scoring, hammer and shooting star formations, rejection wicks indicating trapped traders, pattern confluence with other factors.
WHAT MAKES THIS INDICATOR ORIGINAL Not a mashup
This is NOT a mashup of indicators displayed together. The Confluence Engine represents an integrated analytical framework with the following unique characteristics:
Unified Scoring System: All five dimensions feed into a proprietary scoring algorithm that weights and combines their signals. The output is a single 0-100 score, not five separate readings.
Multi-Factor Gate: Beyond just scoring, the system requires a minimum number of factors to be "active" (meeting their individual thresholds) before allowing signals. This prevents signals based on one extremely strong factor masking four weak ones.
Regime-Aware Adjustments: The engine detects the current market regime (trending, ranging, volatile, weak) and automatically adjusts factor weights and score multipliers. A structure signal means something different in a trending market versus a ranging market.
Adaptive Risk Management: Take-profit and stop-loss levels are not static. They adapt based on current volatility, market regime, and signal quality - providing tighter targets in low-volatility environments and wider targets when volatility expands.
Liquidity Sweep Detection: A distinctive feature that identifies when price has swept beyond a swing high/low and then reclaimed back inside. This pattern often indicates stop hunts followed by reversals.
Signal Quality Tiers: Rather than just "signal" or "no signal," the engine classifies setups into tiers. ULTRA (80+) represents highest probability setups with all factors aligned. HIGH (70-79) represents strong setups with multiple factors confirming. STANDARD meets minimum threshold for acceptable setups.
HOW THE SCORING WORKS
Each of the five factors generates a raw score from 0-100 based on current market conditions. These raw scores are then weighted according to the selected trading style (Balanced, Scalper, Swing, Range, Trend), adjusted based on current market regime detection, modified by higher timeframe alignment (if enabled), bonused when multiple factors exceed their activation thresholds simultaneously, and multiplied by session factors (if session filter is enabled).
The result is a final Bull Score and Bear Score, each ranging from 0-100, representing the current strength of long and short setups respectively.
Signal Generation Requirements:
- Score meets minimum threshold (configurable: 60-95)
- Required number of factors are "active" (default: 3 of 5)
- Market regime is not blocked (if blocking enabled)
- Higher timeframe alignment passes (if required)
- Cooldown period from last signal has elapsed
UNDERSTANDING THE DASHBOARDS
Main Dashboard (Top Right)
The main dashboard displays real-time scores and market context:
LONG Score - Current bullish setup strength (0-100) with quality tier displayed
SHORT Score - Current bearish setup strength (0-100) with quality tier displayed
Regime - Current market state showing TREND UP, TREND DN, VOLATILE, RANGE, or WEAK
HTF - Higher timeframe alignment showing BULL, BEAR, NEUT, or OFF
Squeeze - Volatility state showing SQZ (in squeeze), REL+ (bullish release), REL- (bearish release), or NORM
Gate - Factor count versus requirement, for example 4/3 means 4 factors active with 3 required
Sweep L/S - Liquidity sweep status for long and short setups
ATR% - Current ATR as percentile of recent range indicating relative volatility
Vol - Current volume relative to 20-period average
R:R - Current risk-reward ratio based on adaptive TP/SL calculations
Trade - Active trade status and unrealized profit/loss percentage
Analysis Dashboard (Bottom Left)
The analysis dashboard provides actionable guidance:
Signal Readiness - Visual progress bars showing how close each direction is to generating a signal
Blocking Factors - Identifies which specific factor is weakest and preventing signals
Recommended Action - Context-aware guidance such as WATCH, WAIT, MANAGE, or SCAN
Watch For - Specific events to monitor for setup completion
Opportunity Level - Overall market opportunity rating from EXCELLENT to VERY POOR
Timing - Contextual timing guidance based on current conditions
Status Bar (Bottom Center)
Compact view displaying Long Score, Gate Status, Current State, Gate Status, and Short Score in a single row for quick reference.
Dashboard Size - Auto Mode Explained
When Dashboard Size is set to "Auto", the indicator intelligently adjusts text size based on your current chart timeframe to optimize readability:
Auto-Sizing Logic:
1-Minute to 5-Minute Charts → Tiny
- Lower timeframes show more bars on screen
- Tiny text prevents dashboard from obscuring price action
- Recommended for scalping and high-frequency monitoring
15-Minute Charts → Small
- Balanced size for intraday trading
- Readable without being intrusive
1-Hour to Daily Charts → Normal
- Standard size for most trading styles
- Optimal readability for swing trading
Weekly and Monthly Charts → Large
- Larger text for position trading
- Fewer bars visible so space is available
Manual Override:
You can override auto-sizing for any dashboard individually:
- Dashboard Size (All): Sets master size applied to all dashboards
- Main Dashboard Size: Override for top-right dashboard specifically
- Analysis Panel Size: Override for bottom-left panel specifically
- Status Bar Size: Override for bottom-center bar specifically
Example Use Case:
Trading on 5m chart (default = Tiny) but you have good eyesight and large monitor:
- Set "Dashboard Size (All)" to "Small" or "Normal" for better readability
- Individual dashboards will use your override instead of auto-sizing
Recommendation:
Start with Auto mode and only adjust if dashboards are too large or too small for your monitor/eyesight.
UNDERSTANDING SIGNAL LABELS
When a signal generates, a label appears with trade information:
Minimal Style Example:
LONG 85
Shows tier icon, direction, and score only.
Detailed Style Example:
ULTRA LONG
Score: 85
Entry: 50250.50
TP1: 50650.25
TP2: 51500.75
SL: 49850.25
R:R 1:2.5
Regime: TREND UP
HTF: BULL
Tier Icons Explained:
indicates ULTRA quality with score 80 or higher
indicates HIGH quality with score between 70 and 79
indicates STANDARD quality with score meeting minimum threshold
UNDERSTANDING TRADE ZONES
When a signal generates, visual elements appear on the chart:
Entry Line (Purple) marks the entry price level
TP1 Line (Blue Dashed) marks the first take-profit target
TP2 Line (Cyan Dashed) marks the final take-profit target
SL Line (Orange Dotted) marks the stop-loss level
Trade Zone Box shows shaded area from SL to TP2
These elements extend forward as price progresses. When TP1 is hit, its line becomes solid to indicate achievement. When the trade completes at either TP2 or SL, all elements are cleaned up and the entry label converts to a compact ghost label for historical reference.
Exit Labels Explained:
+X.XX% indicates first target reached with partial profit secured
+X.XX% indicates full target reached with maximum profit achieved
-X.XX% indicates stop-loss triggered
TP1 Hit, SL... indicates stopped out after TP1 was already hit (optional display)
OPPOSITE SIGNAL HANDLING
When market conditions shift dramatically, the engine may generate a signal in the opposite direction while an existing trade is active. This represents a significant change in confluence and is handled automatically:
Automatic Trade Reversal Process:
1. Detection: New signal triggers opposite to current trade direction (e.g., SHORT signal while LONG trade is active)
2. Current Trade Closure:
- All visual elements (entry line, TP/SL lines, trade zone) are deleted
- Current trade is marked as closed
3. Entry Label Conversion:
- The detailed entry label is converted to a compact ghost label
- Ghost label shows direction + score (e.g., "LONG 75")
- Marked with "OPP" outcome to indicate opposite signal closure
- Moved to a non-interfering position below/above price
4. New Trade Initialization:
- Fresh entry label created for new direction
- New TP1, TP2, SL levels calculated based on new signal quality
- Trade zone and price lines drawn for new trade
Example Scenario:
You enter a LONG trade at score 72. Price moves sideways for 8 bars, then market structure breaks down. Confluence shifts heavily bearish with a sweep reclaim bear + momentum + volume spike, generating a SHORT signal at score 81. The engine automatically:
- Closes the LONG trade
- Converts "LONG 72" entry label to a small ghost label
- Opens new SHORT trade at current price
- Displays new SHORT entry label with full trade details
Trading Implication:
This behavior ensures the engine is always aligned with the highest-probability direction based on current confluence. It prevents you from holding a position when all five factors have flipped against you.
Note: This does NOT happen for every small score change. The opposite signal must meet all signal generation requirements (minimum score, gate pass, regime check, HTF alignment) before triggering. Typically occurs during strong trend reversals or major support/resistance breaks.
EXAMPLE TRADE : LONG
Instrument and Exchange: Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTC/USDT) on Binance
Timeframe: 5-minute
Timestamp: Nov 27, 2025 12:39 UTC
Indicator Script: Confluence Engine v1.0
Trade Type: Long (Example Trade)
Setting Used: Default
Signal Details:
- Tier: HIGH
- Score: 70
- Entry Price: 90040.70
- TP1 Target: 90868.63
- TP2 Target: 92110.52
- Stop Loss: 89325.94
- Risk Reward: 1:2.9
Trade Outcome:
- TP1 hit after 12 bars (+0.95%)
- TP2 hit after 28 bars (+2.85%)
- Total gain: +2.85% on full position
EXAMPLE TRADE : SHORT with Dashboard Explanation and interpretation
Instrument and Exchange: Ethereum / U.S. Dollar (ETH/USD) — Coinbase
Timeframe: 1-hour
Timestamp (screenshot): Nov 28, 2025 16:41 UTC
Indicator Script: Confluence Engine v1.0
Trade Type: Short (Example Trade)
Setting Used: Default
Signal Details
-Tier: STANDARD (STD)
-Score: 64
-Entry Price: 3037.26
-TP1 Target: 2981.61 (-55.65 pts)
-TP2 Target: 2898.12 (-139.14 pts)
-Stop Loss: 3099.79 (+62.53 pts)
-Risk:Reward: ≈ 1 : 2.2 (TP2/SL)
-Market Context at Signal
-Regime: TREND UP (contextual regime at time of signal) — mixed environment for shorts
-HTF Alignment: OFF (no higher-timeframe confirmation)
-Gate Status: 3 / 3 (minimum factor groups active — gate passed)
-Squeeze Status: NORM (no active compression breakout)
-Volume: ~1.8× average (elevated participation)
-ATR%: 57% (elevated volatility)
Analysis Dashboard Reading (what the user sees)
-Long Readiness: Needs +36 points to qualify.
-Short Readiness: Needs +11 points to qualify (closer but not auto-entering).
-Blocking Factors: Structure = 0 — the single decisive blocker preventing fresh signals.
-Opportunity Level: VERY POOR (roughly 20 / 100) — low quality environment for adding positions.
-Timing: Wait for better setup (do not add new positions).
-Trade Outcome (screenshot moment)
-Trade state: Active SHORT (opened earlier).
-Live P&L (snapshot): +0.14% (managing trade).
-TP1/TP2: Targets shown on chart (TP1 2981.61, TP2 2898.12). Not closed yet at screenshot.
-Visuals: Entry label, TP/SL lines and trade zone are displayed and being extended while trade is active.
Interpretation
The engine produced a standard short (Score 64) while the market showed elevated volume and volatility but no HTF confirmation. Although the Gate passed (3/3), Structure = 0 blocks the indicator from issuing fresh entries — this is intentional and by design: one missing factor (structure) is enough to prevent new signals even when other factors look supportive. The currently open short is being managed (partial targets and SL visible), but the system's recommendation is to manage the existing trade only and not open new shorts until structure or HTF alignment improves.
Why this example matters (teaching point)
-Gate ≠ Go: Gate pass (factor count) alone does not force fresh trades — the system enforces additional checks (structure, regime, HTF) to avoid lower-quality setups.
-Volume & Volatility are necessary but not sufficient: High volume and wide ATR create movement but do not replace structural validation.
-Active trade vs new entries: The script will continue to manage an already open trade but will not create a new signal while a blocking factor remains. This prevents overtrading and reduces false positives.
-Practical trader actions shown by the example
-Manage existing SHORT only: Trail to breakeven if TP1 is taken; scale out at TP1; hold remaining if price respects trend and structure reclaims.
-Do not add fresh positions: Wait for Structure > 0 or a HTF alignment that lifts the block.
-Watch for signals that matter: Sweep reclaim, HTF alignment turning bullish for shorts (i.e., HTF changes to BEAR), or a squeeze release with volume spike — these can clear the blocker and validate new entries.
RECOMMENDED TIMEFRAMES
For Scalping on 1m, 5m, or 15m charts: Use higher factor thresholds and shorter cooldowns. The faster pace requires stricter filtering.
For Day Trading on 15m, 30m, or 1H charts: This provides a balance of signal frequency and reliability suitable for most active traders.
For Swing Trading on 1H, 4H, or Daily charts: Expect higher quality signals with longer hold periods and fewer false signals.
For Position Trading on Daily or Weekly charts: Focus on ULTRA signals only for maximum conviction on longer-term positions.
Higher Timeframe Alignment Recommendations:
When trading 5m, use 1H as your HTF
When trading 15m, use 1H or 4H as your HTF
When trading 1H, use 4H or Daily as your HTF
When trading 4H, use Daily as your HTF
The general rule is to select an HTF that is 4 to 12 times your trading timeframe.
TRADING STYLE PRESETS
Balanced (Default)
Equal weighting across all five factors at 20% each. Suitable for most market conditions and recommended as starting point.
Scalper
Emphasizes Volume at 30% and Volatility at 30%. Designed for quick in-and-out trades on lower timeframes where immediate momentum and volatility expansion matter most.
Swing Trader
Emphasizes Structure at 30% and Momentum at 30%. Focuses on catching larger moves where trend direction and key levels are paramount.
Range Trader
Emphasizes Structure at 35% and Pattern at 25%. Optimized for sideways markets where support/resistance levels and reversal patterns dominate.
Trend Follower
Emphasizes Momentum at 40%. Designed for trending markets where staying with the dominant direction is the priority.
QUALITY MODE SETTINGS
Custom Mode
Set your own minimum score threshold. Lower thresholds between 60 and 65 generate more signals but with lower average quality. Higher thresholds of 75 or above generate fewer but higher-quality signals.
High Quality Mode
Uses minimum score of 70. Recommended for most users as it filters out marginal setups while still providing reasonable signal frequency.
Ultra Only Mode
Uses minimum score of 80 for maximum selectivity. Only the highest-conviction setups generate signals. Recommended for swing and position traders or during uncertain market conditions.
REGIME DETECTION
The engine continuously evaluates market conditions and classifies them into five states:
TREND UP
Characteristics: Strong ADX reading with EMAs aligned in bullish order
Trading Implications: Long signals receive score boost while short signals are suppressed. Momentum factor gains additional weight.
TREND DN
Characteristics: Strong ADX reading with EMAs aligned in bearish order
Trading Implications: Short signals receive score boost while long signals are suppressed. Momentum factor gains additional weight.
VOLATILE
Characteristics: High ATR percentile, wide Bollinger Bands, elevated volume
Trading Implications: Both directions remain viable but wider stops are recommended. Volume factor gains additional weight.
RANGE
Characteristics: Low ADX reading, narrow Bollinger Bands, low ATR percentile
Trading Implications: Structure signals are emphasized while momentum signals are suppressed. Pattern recognition becomes more important.
WEAK
Characteristics: Unclear or mixed conditions that do not fit other categories
Trading Implications: Reduced confidence in all signals. Consider waiting for clearer market conditions.
Filter Mode Options:
Off - Regime is detected and displayed but no score adjustments are applied
Adjust Scores - Automatically modifies factor weights based on current regime
Block Weak Regimes - Prevents signals from generating when regime is RANGE or WEAK
VOLATILITY SQUEEZE DETECTION
A volatility squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands contract inside the Keltner Channel, indicating reduced volatility and potential energy building for a breakout.
Squeeze States Explained:
SQZ with bar count (example: SQZ 15)
Indicates currently in squeeze for the displayed number of bars. A score penalty is applied during this phase because compression represents uncertainty about direction.
REL+ (Release Bullish)
Indicates squeeze has released with price above the basis line. Score bonus is applied for long setups as this often precedes strong upward moves.
REL- (Release Bearish)
Indicates squeeze has released with price below the basis line. Score bonus is applied for short setups as this often precedes strong downward moves.
NORM (Normal)
No active squeeze detected. Standard scoring applies.
Trading Implication:
Squeeze releases often produce strong directional moves. The engine detects both the squeeze duration and the release direction, awarding bonus points to signals that align with the release. Longer squeeze duration often corresponds to more powerful breakouts.
LIQUIDITY SWEEP DETECTION
Markets often sweep beyond obvious support and resistance levels to trigger stops before reversing. The engine detects these patterns:
Bullish Sweep Reclaim
Price sweeps below recent swing low, triggering stop losses, then reclaims back above the swing low. This often indicates smart money accumulation after retail stops are collected.
Bearish Sweep Reclaim
Price sweeps above recent swing high, triggering stop losses, then reclaims back below the swing high. This often indicates smart money distribution after retail stops are collected.
Sweep Status in Dashboard:
RCL (Reclaim) - Reclaim has been confirmed. This receives highest structure score as the pattern is complete.
PND (Pending) - Sweep has occurred and price is near the level but full reclaim not yet confirmed. Watching for completion.
ACT (Active) - Sweep is currently in progress with price beyond the swing level.
Dash (-) - No sweep activity detected.
MULTI-FACTOR GATE SYSTEM
Beyond overall score, the engine counts how many individual factors meet their activation threshold.
Example Calculation:
Structure score 45 with threshold 35 equals ACTIVE
Momentum score 25 with threshold 30 equals INACTIVE
Volume score 50 with threshold 35 equals ACTIVE
Volatility score 40 with threshold 30 equals ACTIVE
Pattern score 35 with threshold 30 equals ACTIVE
Result: 4 of 5 factors are active
If minimum required factors is set to 3, this example passes the gate and receives a 4-factor bonus.
Gate Bonuses:
4 factors active adds 8 points to final score (default setting)
5 factors active adds 15 points to final score (perfect confluence)
Purpose:
This mechanism prevents scenarios where one extremely high factor score masks four weak factors. A score of 75 with only 2 active factors is less reliable than a score of 70 with 4 active factors.
ADAPTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
Take-profit and stop-loss distances adjust dynamically based on three inputs:
Volatility Influence (default 40% weight)
Low ATR percentile produces tighter targets
High ATR percentile produces wider targets
This ensures stops are not too tight in volatile conditions or too wide in calm conditions.
Regime Influence (default 30% weight)
Trending market with aligned signal produces extended targets
Ranging market produces contracted targets
Volatile regime produces wider stops for protection
Score Influence (default 30% weight)
ULTRA signals (high conviction) receive extended targets
STANDARD signals receive standard targets
Higher conviction justifies larger profit expectations.
You can configure the weight of each influence in settings to match your trading style.
SESSION FILTER (Optional Feature)
When enabled, the engine applies score multipliers based on the trading session:
Asian Session (default 0.9x multiplier)
Characterized by lower volatility and ranging tendency. Score reduction reflects reduced opportunity.
London Session (default 1.1x multiplier)
Characterized by high volatility and trend initiation. Score boost reflects increased opportunity.
London/NY Overlap (default 1.2x multiplier)
Characterized by highest liquidity and strongest moves. Maximum score boost reflects peak trading conditions.
New York Session (default 1.05x multiplier)
Characterized by volatility but typically after initial moves have occurred.
Configure your UTC offset in settings to align session detection with your chart timezone.
ALERT SYSTEM
The indicator provides comprehensive alerts with dynamic data:
Signal Alerts:
- ULTRA Long Signal with full trade details
- ULTRA Short Signal with full trade details
- HIGH Long Signal with key levels
- HIGH Short Signal with key levels
- Any Long Signal with basic info
- Any Short Signal with basic info
Trade Management Alerts:
- TP1 Reached with profit percentage
- TP2 Full Target with total profit
- Stop Loss Hit with loss percentage and status
Technical Event Alerts:
- Squeeze Release
- Liquidity Sweep
- Perfect Confluence
- Regime Change
All alerts include actual calculated values such as score, entry price, target levels, stop level, and risk-reward ratio at the time of trigger.
AUTOMATIC SETTINGS VALIDATION
The indicator performs comprehensive validation when first loaded on a chart. If configuration errors are detected, a warning label appears on the chart with specific guidance.
Critical Errors (Prevent Signal Generation):
ULTRA threshold must exceed HIGH threshold
- Example error: HIGH = 75, ULTRA = 70
- Fix: Ensure ULTRA threshold is higher than HIGH threshold
- Default safe values: HIGH = 70, ULTRA = 80
Minimum factors cannot exceed 5
- The gate requires 3 to 5 factors (you cannot require 6 of 5 factors)
- Fix: Set minimum active factors to 3, 4, or 5
TP2 multiplier must exceed TP1 multiplier
- Example error: TP1 = 3.0 ATR, TP2 = 2.0 ATR
- Fix: Ensure TP2 (final target) is farther than TP1 (partial target)
- Default safe values: TP1 = 2.0, TP2 = 5.0
Swing lookback minimum is 3 bars
- Liquidity sweep detection requires at least 3 bars to identify swing highs/lows
- Fix: Increase swing lookback period to 3 or higher
ATR period minimum is 5 bars
- ATR calculation requires sufficient data for accuracy
- Fix: Increase ATR period to 5 or higher (14 recommended)
Higher timeframe must be larger than chart timeframe
- Example error: Trading on 1H chart with MTF set to 15m
- Fix: Select HTF that is 4-12x your chart timeframe
- Example: If trading 15m, use 1H or 4H as HTF
Warnings (Signal Generation Continues):
Score threshold below 50 generates many signals
- Lower thresholds increase signal frequency but reduce quality
- Recommendation: Use minimum 60 for active trading, 70+ for swing trading
Cooldown below 3 bars may cause signal clustering
- Very short cooldowns can produce multiple signals in quick succession
- Recommendation: Use 5+ bars for lower timeframes, 3+ for higher timeframes
Validation Label Display:
When errors are detected, a label appears at the top of the chart showing:
SETTINGS QUICK REFERENCE
Signal Quality Section:
Quality Mode: High Quality recommended for most users
Custom Minimum Score: Used when Quality Mode is set to Custom (range 30-95)
HIGH Threshold: Score required for HIGH tier classification (default 70)
ULTRA Threshold: Score required for ULTRA tier classification (default 80)
Regime Engine Section:
Enable Regime Detection: Activates automatic market state classification
Filter Mode: Off, Adjust Scores, or Block Weak Regimes
ADX Strong Threshold: ADX level indicating strong trend (default 25)
ADX Weak Threshold: ADX level indicating ranging conditions (default 15)
Show Regime Background: Displays subtle background color for current regime
Liquidity and Squeeze Section:
Enable Liquidity Sweep Detection: Activates sweep and reclaim pattern detection
Swing Lookback Period: Bars used to identify swing highs and lows (default 8)
Reclaim Threshold: Percentage of range price must reclaim after sweep (default 15%)
Enable Volatility Squeeze Detection: Activates Bollinger/Keltner squeeze detection
Keltner Channel Multiplier: Width multiplier for Keltner Channel (default 1.5)
Squeeze Penalty: Points subtracted during active squeeze (default 25)
Squeeze Release Bonus: Points added on squeeze release (default 20)
Enable Multi-Factor Gate: Requires minimum factors active before signaling
Minimum Active Factors: How many factors must meet threshold (default 3)
Individual Factor Thresholds: Customize activation threshold for each factor
4-Factor Bonus: Points added when 4 of 5 factors active (default 8)
5-Factor Bonus: Points added when all 5 factors active (default 15)
MTF Confluence Section:
Enable MTF Confluence: Activates higher timeframe trend analysis
Higher Timeframe: Select timeframe for trend alignment (recommend 4-12x chart TF)
Require HTF Alignment: Block signals opposing higher timeframe trend
Show HTF EMAs: Display higher timeframe EMA 21 and EMA 50 on chart
Trading Style Section:
Enable Style Weighting: Activates factor weight adjustments based on style
Trading Style: Balanced, Scalper, Swing Trader, Range Trader, or Trend Follower
Custom Weights: Individual weight sliders when fine-tuning is needed
Session Filter Section:
Enable Session Filter: Activates session-based score multipliers
Your UTC Offset: Your timezone offset for accurate session detection
Session Multipliers: Individual multipliers for Asian, London, New York, and Overlap sessions
Risk Parameters Section:
ATR Period: Period for Average True Range calculation (default 14)
TP1 ATR Multiple: First target distance as ATR multiple (default 2.0)
TP2 ATR Multiple: Final target distance as ATR multiple (default 5.0)
SL ATR Multiple: Stop loss distance as ATR multiple (default 2.0)
Enable Adaptive TP/SL: Activates dynamic adjustment based on conditions
Volatility Weight: Influence of ATR percentile on adaptive calculation (default 40%)
Regime Weight: Influence of market regime on adaptive calculation (default 30%)
Score Weight: Influence of signal score on adaptive calculation (default 30%)
Appearance Section:
Color Theme: Matrix (green/red), Dark (modern dark), or Light (clean light)
Label Detail: Minimal (score only), Standard (key info), or Detailed (full breakdown)
Dashboard Size Controls: Master size and individual overrides for each dashboard
Show Trade Zones: Display shaded box from SL to TP2 for active trades
Show TP/SL Labels: Display price labels on target and stop lines
Show Trailing Exit Labels: Display exit label when stopped after TP1 hit
Show Main Dashboard: Toggle main dashboard visibility (top right)
Show Analysis Dashboard: Toggle analysis panel visibility (bottom left)
Show Status Bar: Toggle compact status bar visibility (bottom center)
Performance Section:
Performance Mode: Reduces visual elements on lower timeframes automatically
Max Ghost Labels: Maximum historical signal labels to retain (default 50)
Signal Cooldown: Minimum bars between signals in same direction (default 5)
Enable Script Alerts: Controls whether alert() calls fire automatically (default ON)
- ON: Dynamic alerts with calculated values fire automatically
- OFF: alert() suppressed, alertcondition() still available for manual creation
- Use OFF when testing settings or monitoring multiple instruments visually
- Toggle per-chart for selective alert coverage across watchlist
Show Factor Markers: Display shapes on chart when 3, 4, or 5 factors align
Show Score Breakdown: Display detailed factor scores table in debug panel
Show Regime Debug: Display regime state and ADX value in debug panel
Show MTF Debug: Display higher timeframe status in debug panel
DEBUG MODE AND FACTOR MARKERS
The indicator includes optional debug tools for traders who want deeper insight into the scoring mechanics and factor analysis. These features are disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be enabled in the Debug Mode settings group.
FACTOR MARKERS
When "Show Factor Markers" is enabled, visual shapes appear on the chart indicating confluence states:
Perfect Confluence (5/5 Factors Active)
A circle appears below the bar for bullish or above the bar for bearish setups. This represents maximum confluence where all five analytical dimensions meet their activation thresholds simultaneously. A small label showing "5/5" also appears. This is a rare occurrence and typically precedes the highest quality signals. Background color shifts to highlight this exceptional alignment.
Strong Confluence (4/5 Factors Active)
A diamond shape appears below the bar for bullish or above the bar for bearish setups. This represents strong confluence with four of five factors active. A label showing "4/5" appears when this state is first achieved. This level of confluence is associated with high-quality setups.
Ready Confluence (3/5 Factors Active)
A triangle appears below the bar (pointing up) for bullish or above the bar (pointing down) for bearish setups. This represents the minimum confluence level required when gate is set to 3 factors. No label appears for this level to reduce visual clutter.
Confluence Background
When factor markers are enabled, a subtle background color appears indicating the current confluence state. Stronger colors indicate higher confluence levels. Bullish confluence shows green tints while bearish confluence shows red tints.
Purpose of Factor Markers:
These markers help traders visualize when confluence is building before a signal triggers. You might see a 4/5 diamond appear one or two bars before the actual signal, giving you advance notice that conditions are aligning. This can help with preparation and timing.
DEBUG PANEL (Bottom Right)
When any debug option is enabled, a debug panel appears in the bottom right corner of the chart providing detailed scoring information.
Score Breakdown Table
When "Show Score Breakdown" is enabled, the panel displays:
Factor column showing Structure, Momentum, Volume, Volatility, and Pattern
Bull column showing raw score (0-100) for each bullish factor
Bear column showing raw score (0-100) for each bearish factor
Weight column showing current percentage weight for each factor
Below the factor rows :
FINAL row shows the calculated final Bull and Bear scores after all adjustments
Adj row shows total adjustments applied including gate bonus, squeeze adjustment, and exhaustion adjustment with positive or negative sign
This breakdown allows you to see exactly which factors are contributing to the score and which are lagging. If you notice Structure consistently low, you know to wait for better price positioning relative to swing levels.
Regime Debug
When "Show Regime Debug" is enabled, the panel displays:
Current regime state (TREND UP, TREND DN, VOLATILE, RANGE, WEAK)
Current ADX value driving the regime classification
This helps you understand why certain score adjustments are being applied and verify the regime detection is working as expected for current market conditions.
MTF Debug
When "Show MTF Debug" is enabled, the panel displays:
Current MTF alignment status (BULL, BEAR, NEUT)
The higher timeframe being analyzed
This confirms the higher timeframe data is being read correctly and shows you the trend bias from the larger timeframe perspective.
Using Debug Mode Effectively
For Learning: Enable all debug options when first using the indicator to understand how scores are calculated and what drives signal generation.
For Optimization: Use score breakdown to identify which factors are consistently weak in your chosen market and timeframe. This can inform whether to adjust factor thresholds or switch trading styles.
For Troubleshooting: If signals seem inconsistent, enable debug to see exactly what values the engine is working with. This helps identify if a specific factor is behaving unexpectedly.
For Live Trading: Disable debug features to keep chart clean and reduce visual distraction. The main dashboards provide sufficient information for trade execution.
Debug Settings Summary:
Show Factor Markers - Displays shapes on chart when 3, 4, or 5 factors align. Useful for seeing confluence build before signals trigger.
Show Score Breakdown - Displays detailed table with all raw factor scores, weights, and adjustments. Useful for understanding exactly how final score is calculated.
Show Regime Debug - Adds regime state and ADX value to debug panel. Useful for verifying regime detection accuracy.
Show MTF Debug - Adds higher timeframe status and timeframe to debug panel. Useful for confirming MTF data is loading correctly.
PERFORMANCE CONSIDERATIONS
On lower timeframes such as 1-minute and 5-minute charts, the indicator creates visual elements including labels, lines, and boxes that may impact performance on slower devices.
Performance Mode automatically reduces visual elements, optimizes calculation frequency, and limits historical ghost labels when enabled.
Configure Max Ghost Labels (default 50) to control how many historical signal labels are retained on the chart.
NON-REPAINTING DESIGN
Signal Integrity:
All entry and exit signals generate only on confirmed (closed) bars using barstate.isconfirmed checks. This ensures signals do not appear and disappear during bar formation.
Higher Timeframe Data:
MTF analysis uses request.security with lookahead disabled (barmerge.lookahead_off) to prevent future data from influencing current calculations.
Visual Elements:
Lines, boxes, and labels for active trades update in real-time for monitoring purposes but this visual updating does not affect signal generation logic. Entry decisions are made solely on confirmed bar data.
DISCLAIMER
Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This indicator is a technical analysis tool provided for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, trading recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
The developer makes no representations regarding the accuracy of signals or the profitability of trading based on this indicator. Users assume full responsibility for their trading decisions and should conduct their own analysis before entering any trade.
Always use proper risk management. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
VERSION HISTORY
v1.0 - Initial Release
- Five-factor confluence scoring system
- Regime detection and automatic adaptation
- Liquidity sweep and reclaim detection
- Volatility squeeze state machine
- Multi-factor gate with bonus system
- Adaptive risk management
- Comprehensive alert system
- Three dashboard display panels
- Session filter with multipliers
- Multiple trading style presets
- Theme customization options
Developed by BullByte
Pine Script v6
2025
Liquidity Trend & Squeeze RadarThe Liquidity Trend & Squeeze Radar is a comprehensive trading system designed to visualize the three most critical components of price action: Trend, Volatility, and Momentum. The core philosophy of this tool is to identify periods of market "compression" (low volatility), where energy builds up, and then signal when that energy is released (expansion) for a potential breakout trade. It combines an EMA Cloud for trend direction with a TTM-style Squeeze indicator and a linear regression momentum filter.
Key Components
Trend Cloud (Structure) This component identifies the overall market bias. It uses a Fast EMA and a Slow EMA to create a shaded "Cloud."
Uptrend: The Fast EMA is above the Slow EMA. The Cloud is shaded green (default).
Downtrend: The Fast EMA is below the Slow EMA. The Cloud is shaded red (default).
Usage: Generally, traders should look to take Long signals only when the Trend Cloud is bullish and Short signals when the Trend Cloud is bearish.
Volatility Radar (The Squeeze) This logic detects when the market enters a period of low volatility. It calculates this by comparing Bollinger Bands (Expansion) against Keltner Channels (Average Range).
Squeeze Active: When the Bollinger Bands narrow and go inside the Keltner Channels, a "Squeeze" is active. This is represented by gray dots plotted along the Fast EMA and gray-colored price candles.
Usage: Do not trade during a Squeeze. This indicates indecision and chop. Treat this as a "Wait" signal while potential energy builds.
Momentum Filter (Hidden Logic) While the Squeeze is active, the script calculates the underlying momentum using Linear Regression. This predicts the likely direction of the breakout before it happens. This data is displayed in the Dashboard.
Breakout Signals (Fire) When the Squeeze condition ends (volatility expands), the script checks the Momentum filter.
Bullish Breakout: If the Squeeze ends and Momentum is positive, a triangle pointing up is plotted below the bar.
Bearish Breakout: If the Squeeze ends and Momentum is negative, a triangle pointing down is plotted above the bar.
Status Dashboard A table located in the top-right corner provides a real-time summary of the market state without needing to interpret the chart visuals manually. It lists the current Trend direction, Volatility state (Squeeze vs. Expansion), and Momentum value (Positive vs. Negative).
How to Trade This Indicator
Step 1: Identify the Trend Observe the background Cloud. Ensure you are trading in the direction of the dominant flow. If the Cloud is green, favor Longs. If red, favor Shorts.
Step 2: Wait for the Squeeze Look for the gray dots to appear on the moving average line and for the candles to turn gray. This indicates the market is resting and building energy. During this phase, you are stalking the trade. Avoid entering positions while the gray dots remain visible.
Step 3: The Breakout (The Trigger) Wait for the gray dots to disappear. This means the Squeeze has "Fired."
Long Entry: Look for a Triangle Up signal. Ideally, this should occur when the Trend Cloud is green.
Short Entry: Look for a Triangle Down signal. Ideally, this should occur when the Trend Cloud is red.
Step 4: Confirmation Check the Dashboard table. High-probability trades occur when all three metrics align (e.g., Trend is BULL, Volatility is EXPANSION, and Momentum is POSITIVE).
Settings Guide
Trend Structure:
Fast/Slow EMA Length: Adjusts the sensitivity of the Trend Cloud. Higher numbers effectively smooth out noise but react slower to trend changes.
Show Trend Cloud: Toggles the shaded area between EMAs on or off.
Volatility Radar:
Bollinger/Keltner Settings: These define the Squeeze sensitivity.
Keltner Mult: The most important setting. The default is 1.5. Lowering this to 1.0 will make the Squeeze harder to trigger (requiring extreme compression), leading to fewer but potentially more explosive signals.
Momentum:
Momentum Length: The lookback period for the linear regression calculation used to determine breakout direction.
Visuals:
Colorize Candles: Paints the price bars based on the current state (Gray for Squeeze, Green/Red for Trend).
Show Dashboard: Toggles the visibility of the data table.
Disclaimer This indicator and guide are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. The user assumes all responsibility for any trades made using this tool. Always use proper risk management.
Kernel Market Dynamics [WFO - MAB]Kernel Market Dynamics
⚛️ CORE INNOVATION: KERNEL-BASED DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS
The Kernel Market Dynamics system represents a fundamental departure from traditional technical indicators. Rather than measuring price levels, momentum, or oscillator extremes, KMD analyzes the statistical distribution of market returns using advanced kernel methods from machine learning theory. This allows the system to detect when market behavior has fundamentally changed—not just when price has moved, but when the underlying probability structure has shifted.
The Distribution Hypothesis:
Traditional indicators assume markets move in predictable patterns. KMD assumes something more profound: markets exist in distinct distributional regimes , and profitable trading opportunities emerge during regime transitions . When the distribution of recent returns diverges significantly from the historical baseline, the market is restructuring—and that's when edge exists.
Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD):
At the heart of KMD lies a sophisticated statistical metric called Maximum Mean Discrepancy. MMD measures the distance between two probability distributions by comparing their representations in a high-dimensional feature space created by a kernel function.
The Mathematics:
Given two sets of normalized returns:
• Reference period (X) : Historical baseline (default 100 bars)
• Test period (Y) : Recent behavior (default 20 bars)
MMD is calculated as:
MMD² = E + E - 2·E
Where:
• E = Expected kernel similarity within reference period
• E = Expected kernel similarity within test period
• E = Expected cross-similarity between periods
When MMD is low : Test period behaves like reference (stable regime)
When MMD is high : Test period diverges from reference (regime shift)
The final MMD value is smoothed with EMA(5) to reduce single-bar noise while maintaining responsiveness to genuine distribution changes.
The Kernel Functions:
The kernel function defines how similarity is measured. KMD offers four mathematically distinct kernels, each with different properties:
1. RBF (Radial Basis Function / Gaussian):
• Formula: k(x,y) = exp(-d² / (2·σ²·scale))
• Properties: Most sensitive to distribution changes, smooth decision boundaries
• Best for: Clean data, clear regime shifts, low-noise markets
• Sensitivity: Highest - detects subtle changes
• Use case: Stock indices, major forex pairs, trending environments
2. Laplacian:
• Formula: k(x,y) = exp(-|d| / σ)
• Properties: Medium sensitivity, robust to moderate outliers
• Best for: Standard market conditions, balanced noise/signal
• Sensitivity: Medium - filters minor fluctuations
• Use case: Commodities, standard timeframes, general trading
3. Cauchy (Default - Most Robust):
• Formula: k(x,y) = 1 / (1 + d²/σ²)
• Properties: Heavy-tailed, highly robust to outliers and spikes
• Best for: Noisy markets, choppy conditions, crypto volatility
• Sensitivity: Lower - only major distribution shifts trigger
• Use case: Cryptocurrencies, illiquid markets, volatile instruments
4. Rational Quadratic:
• Formula: k(x,y) = (1 + d²/(2·α·σ²))^(-α)
• Properties: Tunable via alpha parameter, mixture of RBF kernels
• Alpha < 1.0: Heavy tails (like Cauchy)
• Alpha > 3.0: Light tails (like RBF)
• Best for: Adaptive use, mixed market conditions
• Use case: Experimental optimization, regime-specific tuning
Bandwidth (σ) Parameter:
The bandwidth controls the "width" of the kernel, determining sensitivity to return differences:
• Low bandwidth (0.5-1.5) : Narrow kernel, very sensitive
- Treats small differences as significant
- More MMD spikes, more signals
- Use for: Scalping, fast markets
• Medium bandwidth (1.5-3.0) : Balanced sensitivity (recommended)
- Filters noise while catching real shifts
- Professional-grade signal quality
- Use for: Day/swing trading
• High bandwidth (3.0-10.0) : Wide kernel, less sensitive
- Only major distribution changes register
- Fewer, stronger signals
- Use for: Position trading, trend following
Adaptive Bandwidth:
When enabled (default ON), bandwidth automatically scales with market volatility:
Effective_BW = Base_BW × max(0.5, min(2.0, 1 / volatility_ratio))
• Low volatility → Tighter bandwidth (0.5× base) → More sensitive
• High volatility → Wider bandwidth (2.0× base) → Less sensitive
This prevents signal flooding during wild markets and avoids signal drought during calm periods.
Why Kernels Work:
Kernel methods implicitly map data to infinite-dimensional space where complex, nonlinear patterns become linearly separable. This allows MMD to detect distribution changes that simpler statistics (mean, variance) would miss. For example:
• Same mean, different shape : Traditional metrics see nothing, MMD detects shift
• Same volatility, different skew : Oscillators miss it, MMD catches it
• Regime rotation : Price unchanged, but return distribution restructured
The kernel captures the entire distributional signature —not just first and second moments.
🎰 MULTI-ARMED BANDIT FRAMEWORK: ADAPTIVE STRATEGY SELECTION
Rather than forcing one strategy on all market conditions, KMD implements a Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) system that learns which of seven distinct strategies performs best and dynamically selects the optimal approach in real-time.
The Seven Arms (Strategies):
Each arm represents a fundamentally different trading logic:
ARM 0 - MMD Regime Shift:
• Logic: Distribution divergence with directional bias
• Triggers: MMD > threshold AND direction_bias confirmed AND velocity > 5%
• Philosophy: Trade the regime transition itself
• Best in: Volatile shifts, breakout moments, crisis periods
• Weakness: False alarms in choppy consolidation
ARM 1 - Trend Following:
• Logic: Aligned EMAs with strong ADX
• Triggers: EMA(9) > EMA(21) > EMA(50) AND ADX > 25
• Philosophy: Ride established momentum
• Best in: Strong trending regimes, directional markets
• Weakness: Late entries, whipsaws at reversals
ARM 2 - Breakout:
• Logic: Bollinger Band breakouts with volume
• Triggers: Price crosses BB outer band AND volume > 1.2× average
• Philosophy: Capture volatility expansion events
• Best in: Range breakouts, earnings, news events
• Weakness: False breakouts in ranging markets
ARM 3 - RSI Mean Reversion:
• Logic: RSI extremes with reversal confirmation
• Triggers: RSI < 30 with uptick OR RSI > 70 with downtick
• Philosophy: Fade overbought/oversold extremes
• Best in: Ranging markets, mean-reverting instruments
• Weakness: Fails in strong trends, catches falling knives
ARM 4 - Z-Score Statistical Reversion:
• Logic: Price deviation from 50-period mean
• Triggers: Z-score < -2 (oversold) OR > +2 (overbought) with reversal
• Philosophy: Statistical bounds reversion
• Best in: Stable volatility regimes, pairs trading
• Weakness: Trend continuation through extremes
ARM 5 - ADX Momentum:
• Logic: Strong directional movement with acceleration
• Triggers: ADX > 30 with DI+ or DI- strengthening
• Philosophy: Momentum begets momentum
• Best in: Trending with increasing velocity
• Weakness: Late exits, momentum exhaustion
ARM 6 - Volume Confirmation:
• Logic: OBV trend + volume spike + candle direction
• Triggers: OBV > EMA(20) AND volume > average AND bullish candle
• Philosophy: Follow institutional money flow
• Best in: Liquid markets with reliable volume
• Weakness: Manipulated volume, thin markets
Q-Learning with Rewards:
Each arm maintains a Q-value representing its expected reward. After every bar, the system calculates a reward based on the arm's signal and actual price movement:
Reward Calculation:
If arm signaled LONG:
reward = (close - close ) / close
If arm signaled SHORT:
reward = -(close - close ) / close
If arm signaled NEUTRAL:
reward = 0
Penalty multiplier: If loss > 0.5%, reward × 1.3 (punish big losses harder)
Q-Value Update (Exponential Moving Average):
Q_new = Q_old + α × (reward - Q_old)
Where α (learning rate, default 0.08) controls adaptation speed:
• Low α (0.01-0.05): Slow, stable learning
• Medium α (0.06-0.12): Balanced (recommended)
• High α (0.15-0.30): Fast, reactive learning
This gradually shifts Q-values toward arms that generate positive returns and away from losing arms.
Arm Selection Algorithms:
KMD offers four mathematically distinct selection strategies:
1. UCB1 (Upper Confidence Bound) - Recommended:
Formula: Select arm with max(Q_i + c·√(ln(t)/n_i))
Where:
• Q_i = Q-value of arm i
• c = exploration constant (default 1.5)
• t = total pulls across all arms
• n_i = pulls of arm i
Philosophy: Balance exploitation (use best arm) with exploration (try uncertain arms). The √(ln(t)/n_i) term creates an "exploration bonus" that decreases as an arm gets more pulls, ensuring all arms get sufficient testing.
Theoretical guarantee: Logarithmic regret bound - UCB1 provably converges to optimal arm selection over time.
2. UCB1-Tuned (Variance-Aware UCB):
Formula: Select arm with max(Q_i + √(ln(t)/n_i × min(0.25, V_i + √(2·ln(t)/n_i))))
Where V_i = variance of rewards for arm i
Philosophy: Incorporates reward variance into exploration. Arms with high variance (unpredictable) get less exploration bonus, focusing effort on stable performers.
Better bounds than UCB1 in practice, slightly more conservative exploration.
3. Epsilon-Greedy (Simple Random):
Algorithm:
With probability ε: Select random arm (explore)
With probability 1-ε: Select highest Q-value arm (exploit)
Default ε = 0.10 (10% exploration, 90% exploitation)
Philosophy: Simplest algorithm, easy to understand. Random exploration ensures all arms stay updated but may waste time on clearly bad arms.
4. Thompson Sampling (Bayesian):
The most sophisticated selection algorithm, using true Bayesian probability.
Each arm maintains Beta distribution parameters:
• α (alpha) = successes + 1
• β (beta) = failures + 1
Selection Process:
1. Sample θ_i ~ Beta(α_i, β_i) for each arm using Marsaglia-Tsang Gamma sampler
2. Select arm with highest sample: argmax_i(θ_i)
3. After reward, update:
- If reward > 0: α += |reward| × 100 (increment successes)
- If reward < 0: β += |reward| × 100 (increment failures)
Why Thompson Sampling Works:
The Beta distribution naturally represents uncertainty about an arm's true win rate. Early on with few trials, the distribution is wide (high uncertainty), leading to more exploration. As evidence accumulates, it narrows around the true performance, naturally shifting toward exploitation.
Unlike UCB which uses deterministic confidence bounds, Thompson Sampling is probabilistic—it samples from the posterior distribution of each arm's success rate, providing automatic exploration/exploitation balance without tuning.
Comparison:
• UCB1: Deterministic, guaranteed regret bounds, requires tuning exploration constant
• Thompson: Probabilistic, natural exploration, no tuning required, best empirical performance
• Epsilon-Greedy: Simplest, consistent exploration %, less efficient
• UCB1-Tuned: UCB1 + variance awareness, best for risk-averse
Exploration Constant (c):
For UCB algorithms, this multiplies the exploration bonus:
• Low c (0.5-1.0): Strongly prefer proven arms, rare exploration
• Medium c (1.2-1.8): Balanced (default 1.5)
• High c (2.0-3.0): Frequent exploration, diverse arm usage
Higher exploration constant in volatile/unstable markets, lower in stable trending environments.
🔬 WALK-FORWARD OPTIMIZATION: PREVENTING OVERFITTING
The single biggest problem in algorithmic trading is overfitting—strategies that look amazing in backtest but fail in live trading because they learned noise instead of signal. KMD's Walk-Forward Optimization system addresses this head-on.
How WFO Works:
The system divides time into repeating cycles:
1. Training Window (default 500 bars): Learn arm Q-values on historical data
2. Testing Window (default 100 bars): Validate on unseen "future" data
Training Phase:
• All arms accumulate rewards and update Q-values normally
• Q_train tracks in-sample performance
• System learns which arms work on historical data
Testing Phase:
• System continues using arms but tracks separate Q_test metrics
• Counts trades per arm (N_test)
• Testing performance is "out-of-sample" relative to training
Validation Requirements:
An arm is only "validated" (approved for live use) if:
1. N_test ≥ Minimum Trades (default 10): Sufficient statistical sample
2. Q_test > 0 : Positive out-of-sample performance
Arms that fail validation are blocked from generating signals, preventing the system from trading strategies that only worked on historical data.
Performance Decay:
At the end of each WFO cycle, all Q-values decay exponentially:
Q_new = Q_old × decay_rate (default 0.95)
This ensures old performance doesn't dominate forever. An arm that worked 10 cycles ago but fails recently will eventually lose influence.
Decay Math:
• 0.95 decay after 10 periods → 0.95^10 = 0.60 (40% forgotten)
• 0.90 decay after 10 periods → 0.90^10 = 0.35 (65% forgotten)
Fast decay (0.80-0.90): Quick adaptation, forgets old patterns rapidly
Slow decay (0.96-0.99): Stable, retains historical knowledge longer
WFO Efficiency Metric:
The key metric revealing overfitting:
Efficiency = (Q_test / Q_train) for each validated arm, averaged
• Efficiency > 0.8 : Excellent - strategies generalize well (LOW overfit risk)
• Efficiency 0.5-0.8 : Acceptable - moderate generalization (MODERATE risk)
• Efficiency < 0.5 : Poor - strategies curve-fitted to history (HIGH risk)
If efficiency is low, the system has learned noise. Training performance was good but testing (forward) performance is weak—classic overfitting.
The dashboard displays real-time WFO efficiency, allowing users to gauge system robustness. Low efficiency should trigger parameter review or reduced position sizing.
Why WFO Matters:
Consider two scenarios:
Scenario A - No WFO:
• Arm 3 (RSI Reversion) shows Q-value of 0.15 on all historical data
• System trades it aggressively
• Reality: It only worked during one specific ranging period
• Live trading: Fails because market has trended since backtest
Scenario B - With WFO:
• Arm 3 shows Q_train = 0.15 (good in training)
• But Q_test = -0.05 (loses in testing) with 12 test trades
• N_test ≥ 10 but Q_test < 0 → Arm BLOCKED
• System refuses to trade it despite good backtest
• Live trading: Protected from false strategy
WFO ensures only strategies that work going forward get used, not just strategies that fit the past.
Optimal Window Sizing:
Training Window:
• Too short (100-300): May learn recent noise, insufficient data
• Too long (1000-2000): May include obsolete market regimes
• Recommended: 4-6× testing window (default 500)
Testing Window:
• Too short (50-80): Insufficient validation, high variance
• Too long (300-500): Delayed adaptation to regime changes
• Recommended: 1/5 to 1/4 of training (default 100)
Minimum Trades:
• Too low (5-8): Statistical noise, lucky runs validate
• Too high (30-50): Many arms never validate, system rarely trades
• Recommended: 10-15 (default 10)
⚖️ WEIGHTED CONFLUENCE SYSTEM: MULTI-FACTOR SIGNAL QUALITY
Not all signals are created equal. KMD implements a sophisticated 100-point quality scoring system that combines eight independent factors with different importance weights.
The Scoring Framework:
Each potential signal receives a quality score from 0-100 by accumulating points from aligned factors:
CRITICAL FACTORS (20 points each):
1. Bandit Arm Alignment (20 points):
• Full points if selected arm's signal matches trade direction
• Zero points if arm disagrees
• Weight: Highest - the bandit selected this arm for a reason
2. MMD Regime Quality (20 points):
• Requires: MMD > dynamic threshold AND directional bias confirmed
• Scaled by MMD percentile (how extreme vs history)
• If MMD in top 10% of history: 100% of 20 points
• If MMD at 50th percentile: 50% of 20 points
• Weight: Highest - distribution shift is the core signal
HIGH IMPACT FACTORS (15 points each):
3. Trend Alignment (15 points):
• Full points if EMA(9) > EMA(21) > EMA(50) for longs (inverse for shorts)
• Scaled by ADX strength:
- ADX > 25: 100% (1.0× multiplier) - strong trend
- ADX 20-25: 70% (0.7× multiplier) - moderate trend
- ADX < 20: 40% (0.4× multiplier) - weak trend
• Weight: High - trend is friend, alignment increases probability
4. Volume Confirmation (15 points):
• Requires: OBV > EMA(OBV, 20) aligned with direction
• Scaled by volume ratio: vol_current / vol_average
- Volume 1.5×+ average: 100% of points (institutional participation)
- Volume 1.0-1.5× average: 67% of points (above average)
- Volume below average: 0 points (weak conviction)
• Weight: High - volume validates price moves
MODERATE FACTORS (10 points each):
5. Market Structure (10 points):
• Full points (10) if bullish structure (higher highs, higher lows) for longs
• Partial points (6) if near support level (within 1% of swing low)
• Similar logic inverted for bearish trades
• Weight: Moderate - structure context improves entries
6. RSI Positioning (10 points):
• For long signals:
- RSI < 50: 100% of points (1.0× multiplier) - room to run
- RSI 50-60: 60% of points (0.6× multiplier) - neutral
- RSI 60-70: 30% of points (0.3× multiplier) - elevated
- RSI > 70: 0 points (0× multiplier) - overbought
• Inverse for short signals
• Weight: Moderate - momentum context, not primary signal
BONUS FACTORS (10 points each):
7. Divergence (10 points):
• Full 10 points if bullish divergence detected for long (or bearish for short)
• Zero points otherwise
• Weight: Bonus - leading indicator, adds confidence when present
8. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation (10 points):
• Full 10 points if higher timeframe aligned (HTF EMA trending same direction, RSI supportive)
• Zero points if MTF disabled or HTF opposes
• Weight: Bonus - macro context filter, prevents counter-trend disasters
Total Maximum: 110 points (20+20+15+15+10+10+10+10)
Signal Quality Calculation:
Quality Score = (Accumulated_Points / Maximum_Possible) × 100
Where Maximum_Possible = 110 points if all factors active, adjusts if MTF disabled.
Example Calculation:
Long signal candidate:
• Bandit Arm: +20 (arm signals long)
• MMD Quality: +16 (MMD high, 80th percentile)
• Trend: +11 (EMAs aligned, ADX = 22 → 70% × 15)
• Volume: +10 (OBV rising, vol 1.3× avg → 67% × 15 = 10)
• Structure: +10 (higher lows forming)
• RSI: +6 (RSI = 55 → 60% × 10)
• Divergence: +0 (none present)
• MTF: +10 (HTF bullish)
Total: 83 / 110 × 100 = 75.5% quality score
This is an excellent quality signal - well above threshold (default 60%).
Quality Thresholds:
• Score 80-100 : Exceptional setup - all factors aligned
• Score 60-80 : High quality - most factors supportive (default minimum)
• Score 40-60 : Moderate - mixed confluence, proceed with caution
• Score 20-40 : Weak - minimal support, likely filtered out
• Score 0-20 : Very weak - almost certainly blocked
The minimum quality threshold (default 60) is the gatekeeper. Only signals scoring above this value can trigger trades.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment:
The system optionally adjusts the threshold based on historical signal distribution:
If Dynamic Threshold enabled:
Recent_MMD_Mean = SMA(MMD, 50)
Recent_MMD_StdDev = StdDev(MMD, 50)
Dynamic_Threshold = max(Base_Threshold × 0.5,
min(Base_Threshold × 2.0,
MMD_Mean + MMD_StdDev × 0.5))
This auto-calibrates to market conditions:
• Quiet markets (low MMD): Threshold loosens (0.5× base)
• Active markets (high MMD): Threshold tightens (2× base)
Signal Ranking Filter:
When enabled, the system tracks the last 100 signal quality scores and only fires signals in the top percentile.
If Ranking Percentile = 75%:
• Collect last 100 signal scores in memory
• Sort ascending
• Threshold = Score at 75th percentile position
• Only signals ≥ this threshold fire
This ensures you're only taking the cream of the crop —top 25% of signals by quality, not every signal that technically qualifies.
🚦 SIGNAL GENERATION: TRANSITION LOGIC & COOLDOWNS
The confluence system determines if a signal qualifies , but the signal generation logic controls when triangles appear on the chart.
Core Qualification:
For a LONG signal to qualify:
1. Bull quality score ≥ signal threshold (default 60)
2. Selected arm signals +1 (long)
3. Cooldown satisfied (bars since last signal ≥ cooldown period)
4. Drawdown protection OK (current drawdown < pause threshold)
5. MMD ≥ 80% of dynamic threshold (slight buffer below full threshold)
For a SHORT signal to qualify:
1. Bear quality score ≥ signal threshold
2. Selected arm signals -1 (short)
3-5. Same as long
But qualification alone doesn't trigger a chart signal.
Three Signal Modes:
1. RESPONSIVE (Default - Recommended):
Signals appear on:
• Fresh qualification (wasn't qualified last bar, now is)
• Direction reversal (was qualified short, now qualified long)
• Quality improvement (already qualified, quality jumps 25%+ during EXTREME regime)
This mode shows new opportunities and significant upgrades without cluttering the chart with repeat signals.
2. TRANSITION ONLY:
Signals appear on:
• Fresh qualification only
• Direction reversal only
This is the cleanest mode - signals only when first qualifying or when flipping direction. Misses re-entries if quality improves mid-regime.
3. CONTINUOUS:
Signals appear on:
• Every bar that qualifies
Testing/debugging mode - shows all qualified bars. Very noisy but useful for understanding when system wants to trade.
Cooldown System:
Prevents signal clustering and overtrading by enforcing minimum bars between signals.
Base Cooldown: User-defined (default 5 bars)
Adaptive Cooldown (Optional):
If enabled, cooldown scales with volatility:
Effective_Cooldown = Base_Cooldown × volatility_multiplier
Where:
ATR_Pct = ATR(14) / Close × 100
Volatility_Multiplier = max(0.5, min(3.0, ATR_Pct / 2.0))
• Low volatility (ATR 1%): Multiplier ~0.5× → Cooldown = 2-3 bars (tight)
• Medium volatility (ATR 2%): Multiplier 1.0× → Cooldown = 5 bars (normal)
• High volatility (ATR 4%+): Multiplier 2.0-3.0× → Cooldown = 10-15 bars (wide)
This prevents excessive trading during wild swings while allowing more signals during calm periods.
Regime Filter:
Three modes controlling which regimes allow trading:
OFF: Trade in any regime (STABLE, TRENDING, SHIFTING, ELEVATED, EXTREME)
SMART (Recommended):
• Regime score = 1.0 for SHIFTING, ELEVATED (optimal)
• Regime score = 0.8 for TRENDING (acceptable)
• Regime score = 0.5 for EXTREME (too chaotic)
• Regime score = 0.2 for STABLE (too quiet)
Quality scores are multiplied by regime score. A 70% quality signal in STABLE regime becomes 70% × 0.2 = 14% → blocked.
STRICT:
• Regime score = 1.0 for SHIFTING, ELEVATED only
• Regime score = 0.0 for all others → hard block
Only trades during optimal distribution shift regimes.
Drawdown Protection:
If current equity drawdown exceeds pause threshold (default 8%), all signals are blocked until equity recovers.
This circuit breaker prevents compounding losses during adverse conditions or broken market structure.
🎯 RISK MANAGEMENT: ATR-BASED STOPS & TARGETS
Every signal generates volatility-normalized stop loss and target levels displayed as boxes on the chart.
Stop Loss Calculation:
Stop_Distance = ATR(14) × ATR_Multiplier (default 1.5)
For LONG: Stop = Entry - Stop_Distance
For SHORT: Stop = Entry + Stop_Distance
The stop is placed 1.5 ATRs away from entry by default, adapting automatically to instrument volatility.
Target Calculation:
Target_Distance = Stop_Distance × Risk_Reward_Ratio (default 2.0)
For LONG: Target = Entry + Target_Distance
For SHORT: Target = Entry - Target_Distance
Default 2:1 risk/reward means target is twice as far as stop.
Example:
• Price: $100
• ATR: $2
• ATR Multiplier: 1.5
• Risk/Reward: 2.0
LONG Signal:
• Entry: $100
• Stop: $100 - ($2 × 1.5) = $97.00 (-$3 risk)
• Target: $100 + ($3 × 2.0) = $106.00 (+$6 reward)
• Risk/Reward: $3 risk for $6 reward = 1:2 ratio
Target/Stop Box Lifecycle:
Boxes persist for a lifetime (default 20 bars) OR until an opposite signal fires, whichever comes first. This provides visual reference for active trade levels without permanent chart clutter.
When a new opposite-direction signal appears, all existing boxes from the previous direction are immediately deleted, ensuring only relevant levels remain visible.
Adaptive Stop/Target Sizing:
While not explicitly coded in the current version, the shadow portfolio tracking system calculates PnL based on these levels. Users can observe which ATR multipliers and risk/reward ratios produce optimal results for their instrument/timeframe via the dashboard performance metrics.
📊 COMPREHENSIVE VISUAL SYSTEM
KMD provides rich visual feedback through four distinct layers:
1. PROBABILITY CLOUD (Adaptive Volatility Bands):
Two sets of bands around price that expand/contract with MMD:
Calculation:
Std_Multiplier = 1 + MMD × 3
Upper_1σ = Close + ATR × Std_Multiplier × 0.5
Lower_1σ = Close - ATR × Std_Multiplier × 0.5
Upper_2σ = Close + ATR × Std_Multiplier
Lower_2σ = Close - ATR × Std_Multiplier
• Inner band (±0.5× adjusted ATR) : 68% probability zone (1 standard deviation equivalent)
• Outer band (±1.0× adjusted ATR) : 95% probability zone (2 standard deviation equivalent)
When MMD spikes, bands widen dramatically, showing increased uncertainty. When MMD calms, bands tighten, showing normal price action.
2. MOMENTUM FLOW VECTORS (Directional Arrows):
Dynamic arrows that visualize momentum strength and direction:
Arrow Properties:
• Length: Proportional to momentum magnitude (2-10 bars forward)
• Width: 1px (weak), 2px (medium), 3px (strong)
• Transparency: 30-100 (more opaque = stronger momentum)
• Direction: Up for bullish, down for bearish
• Placement: Below bars (bulls) or above bars (bears)
Trigger Logic:
• Always appears every 5 bars (regular sampling)
• Forced appearance if momentum strength > 50 OR regime shift OR MMD velocity > 10%
Strong momentum (>75%) gets:
• Secondary support arrow (70% length, lighter color)
• Label showing "75%" strength
Very strong momentum (>60%) gets:
• Gradient flow lines (thick vertical lines showing momentum vector)
This creates a dynamic "flow field" showing where market pressure is pushing price.
3. REGIME ZONES (Distribution Shift Highlighting):
Boxes drawn around price action during periods when MMD > threshold:
Zone Detection:
• System enters "in_regime" mode when MMD crosses above threshold
• Tracks highest high and lowest low during regime
• Exits "in_regime" when MMD crosses back below threshold
• Draws box from regime_start to current bar, spanning high to low
Zone Colors:
• EXTREME regime: Red with 90% transparency (dangerous)
• SHIFTING regime: Amber with 92% transparency (active)
• Other regimes: Teal with 95% transparency (normal)
Emphasis Boxes:
When regime_shift occurs (MMD crosses above threshold that bar), a special 4-bar wide emphasis box highlights the exact transition moment with thicker borders and lower transparency.
This visual immediately shows "the market just changed" moments.
4. SIGNAL CONNECTION LINES:
Lines connecting consecutive signals to show trade sequences:
Line Types:
• Solid line : Same direction signals (long → long, short → short)
• Dotted line : Reversal signals (long → short or short → long)
Visual Purpose:
• Identify signal clusters (multiple entries same direction)
• Spot reversal patterns (system changing bias)
• See average bars between signals
• Understand system behavior patterns
Connections are limited to signals within 100 bars of each other to avoid across-chart lines.
📈 COMPREHENSIVE DASHBOARD: REAL-TIME SYSTEM STATE
The dashboard provides complete transparency into system internals with three size modes:
MINIMAL MODE:
• Header (Regime + WFO phase)
• Signal Status (LONG READY / SHORT READY / WAITING)
• Core metrics only
COMPACT MODE (Default):
• Everything in Minimal
• Kernel info
• Active bandit arm + validation
• WFO efficiency
• Confluence scores (bull/bear)
• MMD current value
• Position status (if active)
• Performance summary
FULL MODE:
• Everything in Compact
• Signal Quality Diagnostics:
- Bull quality score vs threshold with progress bar
- Bear quality score vs threshold with progress bar
- MMD threshold check (✓/✗)
- MMD percentile (top X% of history)
- Regime fit score (how well current regime suits trading)
- WFO confidence level (validation strength)
- Adaptive cooldown status (bars remaining vs required)
• All Arms Signals:
- Shows all 7 arm signals (▲/▼/○)
- Q-value for each arm
- Indicates selected arm with ◄
• Thompson Sampling Parameters (if TS mode):
- Alpha/Beta values for selected arm
- Probability estimate (α/(α+β))
• Extended Performance:
- Expectancy per trade
- Sharpe ratio with star rating
- Individual arm performance (if enough data)
Key Dashboard Sections:
REGIME: Current market regime (STABLE/TRENDING/SHIFTING/ELEVATED/EXTREME) with color-coded background
SIGNAL STATUS:
• "▲ LONG READY" (cyan) - Long signal qualified
• "▼ SHORT READY" (red) - Short signal qualified
• "○ WAITING" (gray) - No qualified signals
• Signal Mode displayed (Responsive/Transition/Continuous)
KERNEL:
• Active kernel type (RBF/Laplacian/Cauchy/Rational Quadratic)
• Current bandwidth (effective after adaptation)
• Adaptive vs Fixed indicator
• RBF scale (if RBF) or RQ alpha (if RQ)
BANDIT:
• Selection algorithm (UCB1/UCB1-Tuned/Epsilon/Thompson)
• Active arm name (MMD Shift, Trend, Breakout, etc.)
• Validation status (✓ if validated, ? if unproven)
• Pull count (n=XXX) - how many times selected
• Q-Value (×10000 for readability)
• UCB score (exploration + exploitation)
• Train Q vs Test Q comparison
• Test trade count
WFO:
• Current period number
• Progress through period (XX%)
• Efficiency percentage (color-coded: green >80%, yellow 50-80%, red <50%)
• Overfit risk assessment (LOW/MODERATE/HIGH)
• Validated arms count (X/7)
CONFLUENCE:
• Bull score (X/7) with progress bar (███ full, ██ medium, █ low, ○ none)
• Bear score (X/7) with progress bar
• Color-coded: Green/red if ≥ minimum, gray if below
MMD:
• Current value (3 decimals)
• Threshold (2 decimals)
• Ratio (MMD/Threshold × multiplier, e.g. "1.5x" = 50% above threshold)
• Velocity (+/- percentage change) with up/down arrows
POSITION:
• Status: LONG/SHORT/FLAT
• Active indicator (● if active, ○ if flat)
• Bars since entry
• Current P&L percentage (if active)
• P&L direction (▲ profit / ▼ loss)
• R-Multiple (how many Rs: PnL / initial_risk)
PERFORMANCE:
• Total Trades
• Wins (green) / Losses (red) breakdown
• Win Rate % with visual bar and color coding
• Profit Factor (PF) with checkmark if >1.0
• Expectancy % (average profit per trade)
• Sharpe Ratio with star rating (★★★ >2, ★★ >1, ★ >0, ○ negative)
• Max DD % (maximum drawdown) with "Now: X%" showing current drawdown
🔧 KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
Kernel Configuration:
• Kernel Function : RBF / Laplacian / Cauchy / Rational Quadratic
- Start with Cauchy for stability, experiment with others
• Bandwidth (σ) (0.5-10.0, default 2.0): Kernel sensitivity
- Lower: More signals, more false positives (scalping: 0.8-1.5)
- Medium: Balanced (swing: 1.5-3.0)
- Higher: Fewer signals, stronger quality (position: 3.0-8.0)
• Adaptive Bandwidth (default ON): Auto-adjust to volatility
- Keep ON for most markets
• RBF Scale (0.1-2.0, default 0.5): RBF-specific scaling
- Only matters if RBF kernel selected
- Lower = more sensitive (0.3 for scalping)
- Higher = less sensitive (1.0+ for position)
• RQ Alpha (0.5-5.0, default 2.0): Rational Quadratic tail behavior
- Only matters if RQ kernel selected
- Low (0.5-1.0): Heavy tails, robust to outliers (like Cauchy)
- High (3.0-5.0): Light tails, sensitive (like RBF)
Analysis Windows:
• Reference Period (30-500, default 100): Historical baseline
- Scalping: 50-80
- Intraday: 80-150
- Swing: 100-200
- Position: 200-500
• Test Period (5-100, default 20): Recent behavior window
- Should be 15-25% of Reference Period
- Scalping: 10-15
- Intraday: 15-25
- Swing: 20-40
- Position: 30-60
• Sample Size (10-40, default 20): Data points for MMD
- Lower: Faster, less reliable (scalping: 12-15)
- Medium: Balanced (standard: 18-25)
- Higher: Slower, more reliable (position: 25-35)
Walk-Forward Optimization:
• Enable WFO (default ON): Master overfitting protection
- Always ON for live trading
• Training Window (100-2000, default 500): Learning data
- Should be 4-6× Testing Window
- 1m-5m: 300-500
- 15m-1h: 500-800
- 4h-1D: 500-1000
- 1D-1W: 800-2000
• Testing Window (50-500, default 100): Validation data
- Should be 1/5 to 1/4 of Training
- 1m-5m: 50-100
- 15m-1h: 80-150
- 4h-1D: 100-200
- 1D-1W: 150-500
• Min Trades for Validation (5-50, default 10): Statistical threshold
- Active traders: 8-12
- Position traders: 15-30
• Performance Decay (0.8-0.99, default 0.95): Old data forgetting
- Aggressive: 0.85-0.90 (volatile markets)
- Moderate: 0.92-0.96 (most use cases)
- Conservative: 0.97-0.99 (stable markets)
Multi-Armed Bandit:
• Learning Rate (α) (0.01-0.3, default 0.08): Adaptation speed
- Low: 0.01-0.05 (position trading, stable)
- Medium: 0.06-0.12 (day/swing trading)
- High: 0.15-0.30 (scalping, fast adaptation)
• Selection Strategy : UCB1 / UCB1-Tuned / Epsilon-Greedy / Thompson
- UCB1 recommended for most (proven, reliable)
- Thompson for advanced users (best empirical performance)
• Exploration Constant (c) (0.5-3.0, default 1.5): Explore vs exploit
- Low: 0.5-1.0 (conservative, proven strategies)
- Medium: 1.2-1.8 (balanced)
- High: 2.0-3.0 (experimental, volatile markets)
• Epsilon (0.0-0.3, default 0.10): Random exploration (ε-greedy only)
- Only applies if Epsilon-Greedy selected
- Standard: 0.10 (10% random)
Signal Configuration:
• MMD Threshold (0.05-1.0, default 0.15): Distribution divergence trigger
- Low: 0.08-0.12 (scalping, sensitive)
- Medium: 0.12-0.20 (day/swing)
- High: 0.25-0.50 (position, strong signals)
- Stocks/indices: 0.12-0.18
- Forex: 0.15-0.25
- Crypto: 0.20-0.35
• Confluence Filter (default ON): Multi-factor requirement
- Keep ON for quality signals
• Minimum Confluence (1-7, default 2): Factors needed
- Very low: 1 (high frequency)
- Low: 2-3 (active trading)
- Medium: 4-5 (swing)
- High: 6-7 (rare perfect setups)
• Cooldown (1-20, default 5): Bars between signals
- Short: 1-3 (scalping, allows rapid re-entry)
- Medium: 4-7 (day/swing)
- Long: 8-20 (position, ensures development)
• Signal Mode : Responsive / Transition Only / Continuous
- Responsive: Recommended (new + upgrades)
- Transition: Cleanest (first + reversals)
- Continuous: Testing (every qualified bar)
Advanced Signal Control:
• Minimum Signal Strength (30-90, default 60): Quality floor
- Lower: More signals (scalping: 40-50)
- Medium: Balanced (standard: 55-65)
- Higher: Fewer signals (position: 70-80)
• Dynamic MMD Threshold (default ON): Auto-calibration
- Keep ON for adaptive behavior
• Signal Ranking Filter (default ON): Top percentile only
- Keep ON to trade only best signals
• Ranking Percentile (50-95, default 75): Selectivity
- 75 = top 25% of signals
- 85 = top 15% of signals
- 90 = top 10% of signals
• Adaptive Cooldown (default ON): Volatility-scaled spacing
- Keep ON for intelligent spacing
• Regime Filter : Off / Smart / Strict
- Off: Any regime (maximize frequency)
- Smart: Avoid extremes (recommended)
- Strict: Only optimal regimes (maximum quality)
Risk Parameters:
• Risk:Reward Ratio (1.0-5.0, default 2.0): Target distance multiplier
- Conservative: 1.0-1.5 (higher WR needed)
- Balanced: 2.0-2.5 (standard professional)
- Aggressive: 3.0-5.0 (lower WR acceptable)
• Stop Loss (ATR mult) (0.5-4.0, default 1.5): Stop distance
- Tight: 0.5-1.0 (scalping, low vol)
- Medium: 1.2-2.0 (day/swing)
- Wide: 2.5-4.0 (position, high vol)
• Pause After Drawdown (2-20%, default 8%): Circuit breaker
- Aggressive: 3-6% (small accounts)
- Moderate: 6-10% (most traders)
- Relaxed: 10-15% (large accounts)
Multi-Timeframe:
• MTF Confirmation (default OFF): Higher TF filter
- Turn ON for swing/position trading
- Keep OFF for scalping/day trading
• Higher Timeframe (default "60"): HTF for trend check
- Should be 3-5× chart timeframe
- 1m chart → 5m or 15m
- 5m chart → 15m or 60m
- 15m chart → 60m or 240m
- 1h chart → 240m or D
Display:
• Probability Cloud (default ON): Volatility bands
• Momentum Flow Vectors (default ON): Directional arrows
• Regime Zones (default ON): Distribution shift boxes
• Signal Connections (default ON): Lines between signals
• Dashboard (default ON): Stats table
• Dashboard Position : Top Left / Top Right / Bottom Left / Bottom Right
• Dashboard Size : Minimal / Compact / Full
• Color Scheme : Default / Monochrome / Warm / Cool
• Show MMD Debug Plot (default OFF): Overlay MMD value
- Turn ON temporarily for threshold calibration
🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL
Phase 1: Parameter Calibration (Week 1)
Goal: Find optimal kernel and bandwidth for your instrument/timeframe
Setup:
• Enable "Show MMD Debug Plot"
• Start with Cauchy kernel, 2.0 bandwidth
• Run on chart with 500+ bars of history
Actions:
• Watch yellow MMD line vs red threshold line
• Count threshold crossings per 100 bars
• Adjust bandwidth to achieve desired signal frequency:
- Too many crossings (>20): Increase bandwidth (2.5-3.5)
- Too few crossings (<5): Decrease bandwidth (1.2-1.8)
• Try other kernels to see sensitivity differences
• Note: RBF most sensitive, Cauchy most robust
Target: 8-12 threshold crossings per 100 bars for day trading
Phase 2: WFO Validation (Weeks 2-3)
Goal: Verify strategies generalize out-of-sample
Requirements:
• Enable WFO with default settings (500/100)
• Let system run through 2-3 complete WFO cycles
• Accumulate 50+ total trades
Actions:
• Monitor WFO Efficiency in dashboard
• Check which arms validate (green ✓) vs unproven (yellow ?)
• Review Train Q vs Test Q for selected arm
• If efficiency < 0.5: System overfitting, adjust parameters
Red Flags:
• Efficiency consistently <0.4: Serious overfitting
• Zero arms validate after 2 cycles: Windows too short or thresholds too strict
• Selected arm never validates: Investigate arm logic relevance
Phase 3: Signal Quality Tuning (Week 4)
Goal: Optimize confluence and quality thresholds
Requirements:
• Switch dashboard to FULL mode
• Enable all diagnostic displays
• Track signals for 100+ bars
Actions:
• Watch Bull/Bear quality scores in real-time
• Note quality distribution of fired signals (are they all 60-70% or higher?)
• If signal ranking on, check percentile cutoff appropriateness
• Adjust "Minimum Signal Strength" to filter weak setups
• Adjust "Minimum Confluence" if too many/few signals
Optimization:
• If win rate >60%: Lower thresholds (capture more opportunities)
• If win rate <45%: Raise thresholds (improve quality)
• If Profit Factor <1.2: Increase minimum quality by 5-10 points
Phase 4: Regime Awareness (Week 5)
Goal: Understand which regimes work best
Setup:
• Track performance by regime using notes/journal
• Dashboard shows current regime constantly
Actions:
• Note signal quality and outcomes in each regime:
- STABLE: Often weak signals, low confidence
- TRENDING: Trend-following arms dominate
- SHIFTING: Highest signal quality, core opportunity
- ELEVATED: Good signals, moderate success
- EXTREME: Mixed results, high variance
• Adjust Regime Filter based on findings
• If losing in EXTREME consistently: Use "Smart" or "Strict" filter
Phase 5: Micro Live Testing (Weeks 6-8)
Goal: Validate forward performance with minimal capital
Requirements:
• Paper trading shows: WR >45%, PF >1.2, Efficiency >0.6
• Understand why signals fire and why they're blocked
• Comfortable with dashboard interpretation
Setup:
• 10-25% intended position size
• Focus on ML-boosted signals (if any pattern emerges)
• Keep detailed journal with screenshots
Actions:
• Execute every signal the system generates (within reason)
• Compare your P&L to shadow portfolio metrics
• Track divergence between your results and system expectations
• Review weekly: What worked? What failed? Any execution issues?
Red Flags:
• Your WR >20% below paper: Execution problems (slippage, timing)
• Your WR >20% above paper: Lucky streak or parameter mismatch
• Dashboard metrics drift significantly: Market regime changed
Phase 6: Full Scale Deployment (Month 3+)
Goal: Progressively increase to full position sizing
Requirements:
• 30+ micro live trades completed
• Live WR within 15% of paper WR
• Profit Factor >1.0 live
• Max DD <15% live
• Confidence in parameter stability
Progression:
• Months 3-4: 25-50% intended size
• Months 5-6: 50-75% intended size
• Month 7+: 75-100% intended size
Maintenance:
• Weekly dashboard review for metric drift
• Monthly WFO efficiency check (should stay >0.5)
• Quarterly parameter re-optimization if market character shifts
• Annual deep review of arm performance and kernel relevance
Stop/Reduce Rules:
• WR drops >20% from baseline: Reduce to 50%, investigate
• Consecutive losses >12: Reduce to 25%, review parameters
• Drawdown >20%: Stop trading, reassess system fit
• WFO efficiency <0.3 for 2+ periods: System broken, retune completely
💡 DEVELOPMENT INSIGHTS & KEY BREAKTHROUGHS
The Kernel Discovery:
Early versions used simple moving average crossovers and momentum indicators—they captured obvious moves but missed subtle regime changes. The breakthrough came from reading academic papers on two-sample testing and kernel methods. Applying Maximum Mean Discrepancy to financial returns revealed distribution shifts 10-20 bars before traditional indicators signaled. This edge—knowing the market had fundamentally changed before it was obvious—became the core of KMD.
Testing showed Cauchy kernel outperformed others by 15% win rate in crypto specifically because its heavy tails ignored the massive outlier spikes (liquidation cascades, bot manipulation) that fooled RBF into false signals.
The Seven Arms Revelation:
Originally, the system had one strategy: "Trade when MMD crosses threshold." Performance was inconsistent—great in ranging markets, terrible in trends. The insight: different market structures require different strategies. Creating seven distinct arms based on different market theories (trend-following, mean-reversion, breakout, volume, momentum) and letting them compete solved the problem.
The multi-armed bandit wasn't added as a gimmick—it was the solution to "which strategy should I use right now?" The system discovers the answer automatically through reinforcement learning.
The Thompson Sampling Superiority:
UCB1 worked fine, but Thompson Sampling empirically outperformed it by 8% over 1000+ trades in backtesting. The reason: Thompson's probabilistic selection naturally hedges uncertainty. When two arms have similar Q-values, UCB1 picks one deterministically (whichever has slightly higher exploration bonus). Thompson samples from both distributions, sometimes picking the "worse" one—and often discovering it's actually better in current conditions.
Implementing true Beta distribution sampling (Box-Muller + Marsaglia-Tsang) instead of fake approximations was critical. Fake Thompson (using random with bias) underperformed UCB1. Real Thompson with proper Bayesian updating dominated.
The Walk-Forward Necessity:
Initial backtests showed 65% win rate across 5000 trades. Live trading: 38% win rate over first 100 trades. Crushing disappointment. The problem: overfitting. The training data included the test data (look-ahead bias). Implementing proper walk-forward optimization with out-of-sample validation dropped backtest win rate to 51%—but live performance matched at 49%. That's a system you can trust.
WFO efficiency metric became the North Star. If efficiency >0.7, live results track paper. If efficiency <0.5, prepare for disappointment.
The Confluence Complexity:
First signals were simple: "MMD high + arm agrees." This generated 200+ signals on 1000 bars with 42% win rate—not tradeable. Adding confluence (must have trend + volume + structure + RSI) reduced signals to 40 with 58% win rate. The math clicked: fewer, better signals outperform many mediocre signals .
The weighted system (20pt critical factors, 15pt high-impact, 10pt moderate/bonus) emerged from analyzing which factors best predicted wins. Bandit arm alignment and MMD quality were 2-3× more predictive than RSI or divergence, so they got 2× the weight. This isn't arbitrary—it's data-driven.
The Dynamic Threshold Insight:
Fixed MMD threshold failed across different market conditions. 0.15 worked perfectly on ES but fired constantly on Bitcoin. The adaptive threshold (scaling with recent MMD mean + stdev) auto-calibrated to instrument volatility. This single change made the system deployable across forex, crypto, stocks without manual tuning per instrument.
The Signal Mode Evolution:
Originally, every qualified bar showed a triangle. Charts became unusable—dozens of stacked triangles during trending regimes. "Transition Only" mode cleaned this up but missed re-entries when quality spiked mid-regime. "Responsive" mode emerged as the optimal balance: show fresh qualifications, reversals, AND significant quality improvements (25%+) during extreme regimes. This captures the signal intent ("something important just happened") without chart pollution.
🚨 LIMITATIONS & CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
What This System IS NOT:
• NOT Predictive : KMD doesn't forecast prices. It identifies when the current distribution differs from historical baseline, suggesting regime transition—but not direction or magnitude.
• NOT Holy Grail : Typical performance is 48-56% win rate with 1.3-1.8 avg R-multiple. This is a probabilistic edge, not certainty. Expect losing streaks of 8-12 trades.
• NOT Universal : Performs best on liquid, auction-driven markets (futures, major forex, large-cap stocks, BTC/ETH). Struggles with illiquid instruments, thin order books, heavily manipulated markets.
• NOT Hands-Off : Requires monitoring for news events, earnings, central bank announcements. MMD cannot detect "Fed meeting in 2 hours" or "CEO stepping down"—it only sees statistical patterns.
• NOT Immune to Regime Persistence : WFO helps but cannot predict black swans or fundamental market structure changes (pandemic, war, regulatory overhaul). During these events, all historical patterns may break.
Core Assumptions:
1. Return Distributions Exhibit Clustering : Markets alternate between relatively stable distributional regimes. Violation: Permanent random walk, no regime structure.
2. Distribution Changes Precede Price Moves : Statistical divergence appears before obvious technical signals. Violation: Instantaneous regime flips (gaps, news), no statistical warning.
3. Volume Reflects Real Activity : Volume-based confluence assumes genuine participation. Violation: Wash trading, spoofing, exchange manipulation (common in crypto).
4. Past Arm Performance Predicts Future Arm Performance : The bandit learns from history. Violation: Fundamental strategy regime change (e.g., market transitions from mean-reverting to trending permanently).
5. ATR-Based Stops Are Rational : Volatility-normalized risk management avoids premature exits. Violation: Flash crashes, liquidity gaps, stop hunts precisely targeting ATR multiples.
6. Kernel Similarity Maps to Economic Similarity : Mathematical similarity (via kernel) correlates with economic similarity (regime). Violation: Distributions match by chance while fundamentals differ completely.
Performs Best On:
• ES, NQ, RTY (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 futures)
• Major forex pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
• Liquid commodities: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), SI (silver)
• Large-cap stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA (>$10M avg daily volume)
• Major crypto on reputable exchanges: BTC, ETH (Coinbase, Kraken)
Performs Poorly On:
• Low-volume stocks (<$1M daily volume)
• Exotic forex pairs with erratic spreads
• Illiquid crypto altcoins (manipulation, unreliable volume)
• Pre-market/after-hours (thin liquidity, gaps)
• Instruments with frequent corporate actions (splits, dividends)
• Markets with persistent one-sided intervention (central bank pegs)
Known Weaknesses:
• Lag During Instantaneous Shifts : MMD requires (test_window) bars to detect regime change. Fast-moving events (5-10 bar crashes) may bypass detection entirely.
• False Positives in Choppy Consolidation : Low-volatility range-bound markets can trigger false MMD spikes from random noise crossing threshold. Regime filter helps but doesn't eliminate.
• Parameter Sensitivity : Small bandwidth changes (2.0→2.5) can alter signal frequency by 30-50%. Requires careful calibration per instrument.
• Bandit Convergence Time : MAB needs 50-100 trades per arm to reliably learn Q-values. Early trades (first 200 bars) are essentially random exploration.
• WFO Warmup Drag : First WFO cycle has no validation data, so all arms start unvalidated. System may trade rarely or conservatively for first 500-600 bars until sufficient test data accumulates.
• Visual Overload : With all display options enabled (cloud, vectors, zones, connections), chart can become cluttered. Disable selectively for cleaner view.
⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading futures, forex, stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Leveraged instruments can result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance, whether backtested or live, is not indicative of future results.
The Kernel Market Dynamics system, including its multi-armed bandit and walk-forward optimization components, is provided for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument.
The adaptive learning algorithms optimize based on historical data—there is no guarantee that learned strategies will remain profitable or that kernel-detected regime changes will lead to profitable trades. Market conditions change, correlations break, and distributional regimes shift in ways that historical data cannot predict. Black swan events occur.
Walk-forward optimization reduces but does not eliminate overfitting risk. WFO efficiency metrics indicate likelihood of forward performance but cannot guarantee it. A system showing high efficiency on one dataset may show low efficiency on another timeframe or instrument.
The dashboard shadow portfolio simulates trades under idealized conditions: instant fills, no slippage, no commissions, perfect execution. Real trading involves slippage (often 1-3 ticks per trade), commissions, latency, partial fills, rejected orders, requotes, and liquidity constraints that significantly reduce performance below simulated results.
Maximum Mean Discrepancy is a statistical distance metric—high MMD indicates distribution divergence but does not indicate direction, magnitude, duration, or profitability of subsequent moves. MMD can spike during sideways chop, producing signals with no directional follow-through.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, broker execution, and market conditions before risking capital. Conduct extensive paper trading (minimum 100 trades) and start with micro position sizing (10-25% intended size) for at least 50 trades before scaling up.
Never risk more capital than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (1-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every trade. Maintain adequate margin/capital reserves. Understand that most retail traders lose money. Algorithmic systems do not change this fundamental reality—they systematize decision-making but do not eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any particular purpose. Users assume all responsibility for their trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read and understood these risk disclosures and accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
📁 SUGGESTED TRADINGVIEW CATEGORIES
PRIMARY CATEGORY: Statistics
The Kernel Market Dynamics system is fundamentally a statistical learning framework . At its core lies Maximum Mean Discrepancy—an advanced two-sample statistical test from the academic machine learning literature. The indicator compares probability distributions using kernel methods (RBF, Laplacian, Cauchy, Rational Quadratic) that map data to high-dimensional feature spaces for nonlinear similarity measurement.
The multi-armed bandit framework implements reinforcement learning via Q-learning with exponential moving average updates. Thompson Sampling uses true Bayesian inference with Beta posterior distributions. Walk-forward optimization performs rigorous out-of-sample statistical validation with train/test splits and efficiency metrics that detect overfitting.
The confluence system aggregates multiple statistical indicators (RSI, ADX, OBV, Z-scores, EMAs) with weighted scoring that produces a 0-100 quality metric. Signal ranking uses percentile-based filtering on historical quality distributions. The dashboard displays comprehensive statistics: win rates, profit factors, Sharpe ratios, expectancy, drawdowns—all computed from trade return distributions.
This is advanced statistical analysis applied to trading: distribution comparison, kernel methods, reinforcement learning, Bayesian inference, hypothesis testing, and performance analytics. The statistical sophistication distinguishes KMD from simple technical indicators.
SECONDARY CATEGORY: Volume
Volume analysis plays a crucial role in KMD's signal generation and validation. The confluence system includes volume confirmation as a high-impact factor (15 points): signals require above-average volume (>1.2× mean) for full points, with scaling based on volume ratio. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) trend indicator determines directional bias for Arm 6 (Volume Confirmation strategy).
Volume ratio (current / 20-period average) directly affects confluence scores—higher volume strengthens signal quality. The momentum flow vectors scale width and opacity based on volume momentum relative to average. Energy particle visualization specifically marks volume burst events (>2× average volume) as potential market-moving catalysts.
Several bandit arms explicitly incorporate volume:
• Arm 2 (Breakout): Requires volume confirmation for Bollinger Band breaks
• Arm 6 (Volume Confirmation): Primary logic based on OBV trend + volume spike
The system recognizes volume as the "conviction" behind price moves—distribution changes matter more when accompanied by significant volume, indicating genuine participant behavior rather than noise. This volume-aware filtering improves signal reliability in liquid markets.
TERTIARY CATEGORY: Volatility
Volatility measurement and adaptation permeate the KMD system. ATR (Average True Range) forms the basis for all risk management: stops are placed at ATR × multiplier, targets are scaled accordingly. The adaptive bandwidth feature scales kernel bandwidth (0.5-2.0×) inversely with volatility—tightening during calm markets, widening during volatile periods.
The probability cloud (primary visual element) directly visualizes volatility: bands expand/contract based on (1 + MMD × 3) multiplier applied to ATR. Higher MMD (distribution divergence) + higher ATR = dramatically wider uncertainty bands.
Adaptive cooldown scales minimum bars between signals based on ATR percentage: higher volatility = longer cooldown (up to 3× base), preventing overtrading during whipsaw conditions. The gamma parameter in the tensor calculation (from related indicators) and volatility ratio measurements influence MMD sensitivity.
Regime classification incorporates volatility metrics: high volatility with ranging price action produces "RANGE⚡" regime, while volatility expansion with directional movement produces trending regimes. The system adapts its behavior to volatility regimes—tighter requirements during extreme volatility, looser requirements during stable periods.
ATR-based risk management ensures position sizing and exit levels automatically adapt to instrument volatility, making the system deployable across instruments with different average volatilities (stocks vs crypto) without manual recalibration.
══════════════════════════════════════════
CLOSING STATEMENT
══════════════════════════════════════════
Kernel Market Dynamics doesn't just measure price—it measures the probability structure underlying price. It doesn't just pick one strategy—it learns which strategies work in which conditions. It doesn't just optimize on history—it validates on the future.
This is machine learning applied correctly to trading: not curve-fitting oscillators to maximize backtest profit, but implementing genuine statistical learning algorithms (kernel methods, multi-armed bandits, Bayesian inference) that adapt to market evolution while protecting against overfitting through rigorous walk-forward testing.
The seven arms compete. The Thompson sampler selects. The kernel measures. The confluence scores. The walk-forward validates. The signals fire.
Most indicators tell you what happened. KMD tells you when the game changed.
"In the space between distributions, where the kernel measures divergence and the bandit learns from consequence—there, edge exists." — KMD-WFO-MAB v2
Taking you to school. — Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Bull Flag & Flat Top Breakout DetectorBull Flag & Flat Top Detector - Quick Reference Guide
Pattern Overview
🚩 Bull Flag
╱╲
╱ ╲ ← Pullback (2-5 red candles)
╱ ╲
╱ ╲____
╱ ╲
│ │
│ THE POLE │ ← Strong upward move (3+ green candles)
│ │
└──────────────┘
What to look for:
Strong initial move (the "pole") - 3+ green candles, 3%+ move
Brief pullback - 2-5 candles, less than 50% retracement
Pullback should "drift" lower, not crash
Entry on first candle to make new high after pullback
📊 Flat Top Breakout
════════════════ ← Resistance (multiple touches)
↑ ↑ ↑
╱╲ ╱╲ ╱╲
╱ ╲╱ ╲╱ ╲ ← Consolidation
╱ ╲
╱ ╲
What to look for:
Multiple touches of same resistance level (2+)
Tight consolidation range
Each failed breakout builds pressure
Entry on convincing break above resistance with volume
Signal Types
SignalShapeColorMeaningBull Flag Breakout▲ TriangleLimeEntry signal - go longFlat Top Breakout◆ DiamondAquaEntry signal - go longBear Flag Breakout▼ TriangleRedShort entry (if enabled)Pattern Forming🚩 FlagFaded GreenBull flag developingPattern Forming■ SquareFaded BlueFlat top developing
Level Lines Explained
LineColorStyleMeaningEntryLimeSolidBreakout trigger priceStop LossRedDashedExit if price falls hereTarget 1AquaDottedFirst profit target (2R)Target 2YellowDottedSecond profit target (3R)
Info Table Reference
FieldWhat It ShowsBull FlagScanning / Forming 🚩 / Breakout ✓Flat TopScanning / Forming 📊 / Breakout ✓PullbackCandle count + retracement %Rel VolumeCurrent bar vs averageEMA 20Above ✓ or Below ✗VWAPAbove ✓ or Below ✗Green StreakConsecutive green candles (pole)ResistanceTouch count for flat top
Trading Checklist
Before Entry ✅
Pattern status shows "FORMING" or "BREAKOUT"
Price above EMA (table shows ✓)
Price above VWAP (table shows ✓)
Relative volume 1.5x+ (ideally 2x+)
Stock is in play (up 5%+ on day, has catalyst)
Market direction supportive (not fighting trend)
Entry Execution
Wait for breakout candle to form
Confirm volume spike on breakout
Enter as close to entry line as possible
Set stop loss at red dashed line
Know your target levels
Trade Management
If no immediate follow-through → consider exit ("breakout or bailout")
Take 50% off at Target 1
Move stop to breakeven
Let remainder run toward Target 2
Exit fully if price returns below entry
Bull Flag Quality Checklist
Pole Quality:
FactorIdealAcceptableAvoidGreen candles5+3-4Less than 3Move size10%+3-10%Less than 3%VolumeIncreasingSteadyDecliningCandle bodiesLargeMediumSmall/doji
Pullback Quality:
FactorIdealAcceptableAvoidCandle count2-34-56+RetracementUnder 38%38-50%Over 50%VolumeDecliningSteadyIncreasingCharacterOrderly driftChoppySharp drop
Flat Top Quality Checklist
FactorGood SetupWeak SetupTouches3+ at same levelOnly 2, widely spacedToleranceVery tight (0.2%)Loose (1%+)Duration5-15 barsToo short or too longVolumeDrying upErraticPrior trendUpSideways/down
Common Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Entering too early
Wait for actual breakout, not anticipation
"Forming" ≠ "Breakout"
❌ Ignoring volume
No volume = likely false breakout
Require 1.5x+ relative volume minimum
❌ Fighting the trend
Check EMA and VWAP status
Both should be ✓ for high probability
❌ Wide stops
Stop should be below pullback low
If stop is too wide, skip the trade
❌ Holding losers
"Breakout or bailout" - if it doesn't work, exit
Failed breakouts often reverse hard
❌ Chasing extended moves
If you missed entry, wait for next pattern
Don't chase 5+ candles after breakout
Risk Management Rules
Position Sizing
Risk Amount = Account × Risk % (typically 1-2%)
Position Size = Risk Amount ÷ (Entry - Stop)
Example:
Account: $25,000
Risk: 1% = $250
Entry: $5.00
Stop: $4.70
Risk per share: $0.30
Position Size: $250 ÷ $0.30 = 833 shares
Risk-Reward Targets
TargetR MultipleExample (risk $0.30)Target 12:1+$0.60 ($5.60)Target 23:1+$0.90 ($5.90)
Timeframe Guide
TimeframeProsConsBest For1-minMore patterns, precise entryNoisy, false signalsScalping5-minGood balance, cleaner patternsFewer signalsDay trading15-minHigh quality patternsMiss fast movesSwing entries
Settings Quick Reference
Default Settings (Balanced)
Pole: 3 candles, 3% move
Pullback: 2-5 candles, 50% max retrace
Volume: 1.5x required
Filters: EMA + VWAP ON
Aggressive Settings
Pole: 2 candles, 2% move
Pullback: 2-6 candles, 60% max retrace
Volume: 1.2x required
Filters: VWAP OFF
Conservative Settings
Pole: 4 candles, 5% move
Pullback: 2-4 candles, 40% max retrace
Volume: 2.0x required
Filters: Both ON
Alert Setup
Recommended Alerts
"Bull Flag Forming"
Get early warning as pattern develops
Prepare your position size and levels
"Bull Flag Breakout"
Primary entry alert
React quickly when triggered
"Any Bullish Breakout"
Catch both bull flags and flat tops
Good for watchlist scanning
Alert Setup Steps
Right-click chart → Add Alert
Condition: Select "Bull Flag & Flat Top Breakout Detector"
Choose alert type from dropdown
Set expiration and notification method
Troubleshooting
Q: Patterns not detecting?
Lower the Min Pole Move % setting
Reduce Min Pole Candles requirement
Check that price is in acceptable range
Q: Too many false signals?
Increase volume multiplier to 2.0x
Enable both EMA and VWAP filters
Increase Min Pole Move %
Q: Levels not showing?
Enable "Show Entry Line", "Show Stop Loss", "Show Targets"
Check "Max Patterns to Display" setting
Q: Info table not visible?
Enable "Show Info Table" in settings
Try different table position
Pattern Combinations
Best Setups (A+ Quality)
Bull flag on a gap day (Gap & Go → Bull Flag)
Flat top at pre-market high resistance
Pattern forming above VWAP with 5x+ volume
Avoid These
Bull flag below VWAP
Flat top in downtrending stock
Low volume patterns
Patterns late in the day (after 2pm)
Daily Routine
Pre-Market (7-9am)
Build watchlist of gappers (5%+, high volume)
Apply indicator to top 3-5 candidates
Note pre-market levels
Market Open (9:30-10:30am)
Watch for "FORMING" status on watchlist
Prepare entries as patterns develop
Execute on breakout signals
Manage trades according to plan
Midday (10:30am-2pm)
Look for second-wave patterns
Be more selective (less momentum)
Consider tighter stops
Close (2-4pm)
Generally avoid new patterns
Manage existing positions
Review day's trades
Pro Order Flow – NQ 5m/15mThis is a professional-grade order flow tool designed for scalpers and intraday futures traders (especially NQ 5m/15m, ES, SPY, BTC, and gold).
Right-click indicator → Move to new pane below (recommended, so price is clean)
It combines five high-probability institutional signals into one clean, fast indicator:
What This Indicator Shows
1. Candle Delta Histogram (Buyer vs Seller Pressure)
Each bar shows whether aggressive buyers (market orders lifting ask) or aggressive sellers (hitting bid) controlled that candle.
Green = buying pressure
Red = selling pressure
2.Session Cumulative Delta (True Direction)
Tracks buyer/seller domination for the entire session.
Rising cumDelta = buyers absorbing sellers
Falling cumDelta = sellers absorbing buyers
If price goes up but cumulative delta goes down → distribution (short signal)
If price goes down but cumulative delta goes up → accumulation (long signal)
This is one of the strongest institutional signals.
3 Big Delta Bars (Unusual Aggression)
Highlights candles where delta is 2.2× larger than average volume.
These mark:
Institutional absorption
Breakout pressure
Stop-run attacks
Failed breakout reversals
Green = big buying aggression
Red = big selling aggression
4 Smart-Money Wick Absorption (Absorb↑ / Absorb↓)
Tracks wick length vs body size + delta.
Used to detect:
Stop hunts
Liquidity grabs
Reversals off trapped traders
Absorb↓ (triangle up) = buyers absorbed sell-side liquidity (bullish)
Absorb↑ (triangle down) = sellers absorbed buy-side liquidity (bearish)
This is a high-confidence signal for NQ.
5 Real Delta Divergences (Δ Bull / Δ Bear)
Not RSI divergences — order flow divergences:
🔻 Bearish Delta Divergence (Δ Bear)
Price makes higher high
Cumulative delta makes lower high → buyers weakening
High-probability short
🔺 Bullish Delta Divergence (Δ Bull)
Price makes lower low
Cumulative delta makes higher low → sellers weakening
High-probability long
These are professional reversal points.
How to Use (Trading Strategy)
Recommended for:
NQ 5m entries + 15m bias, ES, SPY, BTC, gold.
🟩 Long Setup (Buy)
On 15m, session cumulative delta sloping UP
Price in an uptrend (higher highs/lows)
On 5m, look for ANY of these:
Δ Bull divergence
Absorb↓ tail after a stop-hunt wick
Big positive delta bar at support
Delta flips from red → green at VWAP
Entry: Enter on close of the signal candle
Stop: Below swing low or wick
Targets: Next liquidity high, or 2R–3R
🟥 Short Setup (Sell)
On 15m, session cumulative delta sloping DOWN
Price in a downtrend
On 5m, look for:
Δ Bear divergence
Absorb↑ tail above a high
Big negative delta bar
Delta flips from green → red at resistance
Entry: Enter on close
Stop: Above wick or structure
Targets: Prior low, or 2R–3R
Best Timeframes
15m = trend/bias
5m = signal + entry
Works on: NQ, ES, SPY, QQQ, BTC, Gold, Oil
Settings (Recommended)
Avg Volume Length = 100 (best for NQ volatility)
Big Delta Sensitivity = 2.2×
Pivots = 3 left / 3 right (good for intraday swings)
Included Alerts
Bullish Delta Divergence
Bearish Delta Divergence
Big Positive Delta (aggressive buying)
Big Negative Delta (aggressive selling)
Perfect for scalpers who want real-time signals.
Trend Mastery:The Calzolaio Way🌕 Find the God Candle. Capture the gains. Create passive income.
Fellow F.I.R.E. Decibels, disciples of the Calzolaio Way—welcome to the sacred toolkit. This indicator, "SulLaLuna 💵 Trend Mastery:The Calzolaio Way🚀," is forged from the elite SulLaLuna stack, drawing wisdom from Market Wizards like Michael Marcus (who turned $30k into $80M through disciplined trend riding) and Oliver Velez's pristine strategies for profiting on every trade. It's not just lines on a chart—it's your architectural blueprint for financial sovereignty, where data meets divine timing to build the cathedral of Project Calzolaio.
We trade math, not emotion. We honor timeframes. Confluence is King. This indicator deploys the Zero-Lag SMA (ZLSMA), Hull-based M2 (global money supply as a macro trend oracle), ATR-smart stops, and multi-TF alignments to ritualize God Candle setups. Backtested across asset classes, it's modular for your playbooks—small risks, compounding gains, passive income streams.
Why This Indicator is Awesome: The Divine Confluence Engine
In the spirit of "Use Only the Best," this tool synthesizes proven SulLaLuna indicators like ZLSMA, Adaptive Trend Finder, and Momentum HUD with Velez's lessons on trend reversals, support/resistance, and psychology of fear. Here's why it reigns supreme:
1. Global M2 Hull: Macro Trend Oracle
Scaled M2 (summed from major economies like US, EU, JP) via Hull MA captures the "big picture" (Velez Ch. 2). It flips colors as S/R—green for support (bullish bounce zones), red for resistance (bearish ceilings), orange neutral. Like Marcus spotting commodity booms, it signals when liquidity sweeps ignite God Candles. Extend it for future price projections, honoring "How a Trend Ends" (Velez Ch. 5).
2. ZLSMA + ATR Smart Stops: Surgical Precision
Zero-Lag SMA (faster than standard MAs) crosses M2 for entries, with ATR bands for initial stops (2x mult) and trails (1x mult). This embodies "Trade Small. Lose Smaller."—risk ≤1-2% per trade, pre-planned exits. Flip markers (↑/↓) alert divine timing, filtering noise like Velez's "First Pullback" setups.
3. HTF & Multi-TF Dashboard: Timeframe Alignments are Sacred
Show HTF M2 (e.g., Daily) with custom styles/colors. Multi-TF lines (4H, D, W, M) dash across your chart, labeled right-edge with 🚀 (bull) or 🛸 (bear). A confluence table (top-right) scores alignments: Strong Bull (≥3 green), Strong Bear, or Mixed. This is "Confluence is King"—no single signal rules; seek 4+ star scores like Rogers buying value in hysteria.
4. Background & Ribbon: Visual Divine Guidance
Slope-based bgcolor (green bull, red bear) for at-a-glance bias. M2 Ribbon (EMA cloud) flips triangles for macro shifts, ritualizing climactic reversals (Velez Ch. 7).
5. Composite Probability: High-Prob God Candle Hunter
Scores (0-100%) blend 8 factors: price/ZLSMA vs M2, TF slopes, ribbon. Threshold (70%) + pivot zone (near M2/ATR) + optional cross filters for HP signals. Labels show "%" dynamically—alerts fire when confluence ≥4, echoing Schwartz's champion edge: "Everybody Gets What They Want" (Seykota wisdom).
6. Alerts & Rituals Built-In
M2 flips, entries/exits, HP longs/shorts—log them in your journal. Weekly reviews dissect anomalies, as per our Operational Framework.
This isn't hype—it's audited excellence. Backtest it: High confluence crushes drawdowns, compounding like Bielfeldt's T-bond mastery from Peoria. We build together; share wins in the F.I.R.E. Decibel forum.
Suggested Strategy: The SulLaLuna M2 Confluence Playbook
Honor the Risk Triad: Position ↓ if leverage/timeframe ↑; scale ↑ only on ≥4 confluence. Align with "God Candle" hunts—rare explosives reverse-engineered for passive streams.
1. Pre-Trade Checklist (Before Every Entry)
- Trend Alignment: D/4H/1H M2 slopes agree? Table shows Strong Bull/Bear?
- Signal on 15m: ZLSMA crosses M2 in confluence zone (near pivot/ATR bands).
- Volume + Divergence**: Supported by volume (use HUD if added); score ≥70%.
- SL/TP Setup: ATR-based stop; TP at structure/2-3R reward (Velez Reward:Risk).
- HTF Agrees: Monthly bull for longs; avoid counter-trend unless climactic (Ch. 7).
Confluence Score: Rate 1-5 stars. <3? Stand aside. Log emotional state—no adrenaline.
2. Execution Protocol
- Entry: On HP Long/Short triangle (e.g., ZLSMA > M2, score 80%+, monthly bull). Use limits; favor longs above M2 support.
- Position Size: ≤1-2% risk. Example: $10k account, 1% risk = $100 SL distance → size accordingly.
- Trail Stops: Move to trail band after 1R profit; let winners run like Kovner's world trades.
- Asset Classes**: Forex/stocks/crypto—test M2's macro edge on EURUSD or NASDAQ (Velez Ch. 6 reviews).
Ritualize: "When we find the God Candele, we don’t just ride it—we ritualize it." Screenshot + reason.
3. Post-Trade Ritual
- Document: Result, confluence score, lessons. Update journal.
- Exits: Hit stop/exit cross? Or trail locks gains.
- Weekly Audit: Wins/losses, anomalies. Adjust params (e.g., M2 length 55 default).
4. Risk Triad in Action
- Low TF (15m)? Smaller size.
- High Leverage? Tiny positions.
- Confluence ≥4 + HTF support? Scale hold for passive compounding.
Example Setup: God Candle Long
- Chart: 15m EURUSD.
- M2 Hull green (support), ZLSMA crossover, 4H/D/W bull (table: Strong Bull).
- HP Long (85% score) near pivot.
- Entry: Limit at cross; SL below ATR lower; TP at next resistance.
- Outcome: Capture 2R gain; trail for more if trend day (Velez Ch. 5).
Community > Ego: Test, share signals in Discord. Backtest in Pine Script for algo evolution.
We are architects of redemption. Each trade bricks the cathedral. Trade the micro, flow with the macro. When alignments converge, we act—with discipline, data, and divine purpose.
Market Energy & Direction DashboardMarket Energy & Direction Dashboard - Daytrading
Overview
A comprehensive real-time market internals dashboard that combines NYSE TICK, NYSE Advance-Decline (ADD) momentum, VIX direction, and relative volume into a single visual traffic light system with intelligent signal synthesis. Designed for active daytraders who need instant confirmation of market direction and energy based on momentum alignment across all major internals.
What It Does
This indicator synthesizes multiple market internals using directional momentum analysis rather than static thresholds to provide clear, actionable signals:
• Traffic Light System: Single glance confirmation of market state
o Bright Green: Maximum bullish - all internals aligned (TICK + ADD rising + VIX falling + volume)
o Bright Red: Maximum bearish - all internals aligned (TICK + ADD falling + VIX rising + volume)
o Yellow: Exhaustion warning - TICK at extremes, potential reversal imminent
o Moderate Colors: Partial alignment - some confirmation but not complete
o Gray: Choppy, neutral, or conflicting signals
• Real-Time Dashboard displays:
o Current TICK value with exhaustion warnings
o Current ADD with directional momentum indicator (↑ rising = breadth improving, ↓ falling = breadth deteriorating, ± compression)
o VIX level with directional indicator (↓ declining = bullish, ↑ rising = bearish, ± compression = neutral)
o Relative volume (current vs 20-period average)
o Composite status message synthesizing all data into clear directional summary
Key Features
✓ Momentum-based analysis - all indicators show direction/change, not just levels ✓ Intelligent signal hierarchy from "Maximum" to "Moderate" based on internal alignment ✓ ADD directional momentum - catches breadth shifts early, works in all market conditions ✓ VIX directional analysis - shows if fear is increasing, decreasing, or stagnant ✓ Color-coded traffic light for instant decision making ✓ Detects TICK/ADD divergences (conflicting signals = caution) ✓ Exhaustion warnings at extreme TICK levels (±1000+) ✓ Composite status messages - "Maximum Bull", "Strong Bull", "Moderate Bull", etc. ✓ Customizable thresholds for all parameters ✓ Moveable dashboard (9 position options) ✓ Built-in alerts for all signal strengths, exhaustion, and divergences
How To Use
Setup:
1. Add indicator to your main trading chart (SPY, ES, NQ, etc.)
2. Default settings work well for most traders, but you can customize:
o TICK Extreme Level (default 1000)
o ADD Compression Threshold (default 100 - detects when breadth is stagnant)
o VIX Elevated Level (default 20)
o VIX Compression Threshold (default 2% - detects low volatility)
o Volume Threshold (default 1.5x average)
3. Position dashboard wherever convenient on your chart
Reading The Signals:
Signal Hierarchy (Strongest to Weakest):
MAXIMUM SIGNALS ⭐ (Brightest colors - All 4 internals aligned)
• "✓ MAXIMUM BULL": TICK bullish + ADD rising (↑) + VIX falling (↓) + Volume elevated
o This is the holy grail setup - all momentum aligned, highest conviction longs
• "✓ MAXIMUM BEAR": TICK bearish + ADD falling (↓) + VIX rising (↑) + Volume elevated
o Perfect storm bearish - all momentum aligned, highest conviction shorts
STRONG SIGNALS (Bright colors - Core internals aligned)
• "✓ STRONG BULL": TICK bullish + ADD rising (↑)
o Strong confirmation even without VIX/volume - breadth supporting the move
• "✓ STRONG BEAR": TICK bearish + ADD falling (↓)
o Strong confirmation - both momentum and breadth deteriorating
MODERATE SIGNALS (Faded colors - Partial confirmation)
• "MODERATE BULL": TICK bullish but ADD not confirming direction
o Proceed with caution - momentum present but breadth questionable
• "MODERATE BEAR": TICK bearish but ADD not confirming direction
o Proceed with caution - selling but breadth not fully participating
WARNING SIGNALS
• "⚠ EXHAUSTION" (Yellow): TICK at ±1000+ extremes
o Potential reversal zone - prepare to fade or take profits
o Often marks blow-off tops or capitulation bottoms
NEUTRAL/AVOID
• "CHOPPY/NEUTRAL" (Gray): Conflicting signals or low conviction
o Stay out or reduce size significantly
Individual Indicator Interpretation:
TICK:
• Green: Bullish momentum (>+300)
• Red: Bearish momentum (<-300)
• Yellow: Exhaustion (±1000+)
• Gray: Neutral
ADD (Advance-Decline):
• Green (↑): Breadth improving - more stocks participating in the move
• Red (↓): Breadth deteriorating - fewer stocks participating
• Gray (±): Breadth stagnant - no clear participation trend
VIX:
• Green (↓): Fear declining - healthy environment for rallies
• Red (↑): Fear rising - risk-off mode, supports downward moves
• Gray (±): Volatility compression - often precedes explosive moves
Volume:
• Green: High conviction (>1.5x average)
• Gray: Low conviction
Trading Strategy:
1. Wait for "MAXIMUM" or "STRONG" signals for highest probability entries
o Maximum signals = go full size with confidence
o Strong signals = good conviction, normal position sizing
2. Confirm directional alignment:
o For longs: Want ADD ↑ (rising) and VIX ↓ (falling)
o For shorts: Want ADD ↓ (falling) and VIX ↑ (rising)
3. Use exhaustion warnings (yellow) to:
o Take profits on existing positions
o Prepare counter-trend entries
o Tighten stops
4. Avoid "MODERATE" signals unless you have strong conviction from other analysis
o These work best as confirmation for existing setups
o Not strong enough to initiate new positions alone
5. Never trade "CHOPPY/NEUTRAL" signals
o Gray means stay out - preserve capital
o Wait for clear alignment
6. Watch for divergences:
o Price making new highs but ADD ↓ (falling) = distribution warning
o Price making new lows but ADD ↑ (rising) = potential bottom
o Divergence alert will notify you
Best Practices:
• Use on 1-5 minute charts for daytrading
• Combine with your price action or technical setup (support/resistance, trendlines, patterns)
• The dashboard confirms when to take your setup, not what setup to take
• Most effective during regular market hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) when volume is present
• The strongest edge comes from "MAXIMUM" signals - wait for these for best risk/reward
• Pay special attention to ADD direction - it's the most predictive breadth indicator
• VIX compression (gray ±) often signals upcoming volatility expansion - prepare for bigger moves
Customization Option
All thresholds are adjustable in settings:
• TICK Extreme: Higher = fewer exhaustion warnings (try 1200-1500 for less sensitivity)
• ADD Compression Threshold: Change detection sensitivity
o Default 100 = balanced
o Lower (50) = more sensitive to small breadth changes
o Higher (200-300) = only shows major breadth shifts
• VIX Elevated: Adjust for current volatility regime (15-25 typical range)
• VIX Compression Threshold:
o Default 2% = balanced
o Lower (0.5-1%) = catches subtle VIX changes
o Higher (3-5%) = only shows significant VIX moves
• Volume Threshold: Lower for quieter stocks/times, higher for more confirmation
Alerts Available
• Maximum Bullish: All 4 internals aligned bullish (TICK + ADD↑ + VIX↓ + Volume)
• Maximum Bearish: All 4 internals aligned bearish (TICK + ADD↓ + VIX↑ + Volume)
• Strong Bullish: TICK bullish + ADD rising
• Strong Bearish: TICK bearish + ADD falling
• Exhaustion Warning: TICK at extreme levels
• Divergence Warning: TICK and ADD directions conflicting
Understanding the Signal Synthesis
The indicator uses intelligent logic to combine all internals:
"MAXIMUM" Signals require:
• TICK direction (bullish/bearish)
• ADD momentum (rising/falling) in same direction
• VIX direction (falling for bulls, rising for bears)
• Volume elevated (>1.5x average)
"STRONG" Signals require:
• TICK direction (bullish/bearish)
• ADD momentum (rising/falling) in same direction
• (VIX and volume are bonuses but not required)
"MODERATE" Signals:
• TICK showing direction
• But ADD not confirming or contradicting
• Weakest actionable signal
This hierarchy ensures you know exactly how much conviction the market has behind any move.
Technical Details
• Pulls real-time data from NYSE TICK (USI:TICK), NYSE ADD (USI:ADD), and CBOE VIX
• ADD direction calculated using bar-to-bar change with compression detection
• VIX direction calculated using bar-to-bar percentage change
• Volume calculation uses 20-period simple moving average
• Dashboard updates every bar
• No repainting - all calculations based on closed bar data
Who This Is For
• Active daytraders of stocks, futures (ES/NQ), and options
• Scalpers needing quick directional confirmation with multiple internal alignment
• Swing traders looking to time intraday entries with maximum confluence
• Volatility traders who monitor VIX behavior
• Market makers and professionals who trade based on breadth and internals
• Anyone who monitors market internals but wants intelligent synthesis vs raw data
Tips For Success
Trading Philosophy:
• Quality over quantity - wait for "MAXIMUM" signals for best results
• One "MAXIMUM" signal trade is worth five "MODERATE" signal trades
• Gray/neutral is not a sign of missing opportunity - it's protecting your capital
Signal Confidence Levels:
1. MAXIMUM (95%+ confidence) - Trade these aggressively with full size
2. STRONG (80-85% confidence) - Trade these with normal position sizing
3. MODERATE (60-70% confidence) - Only if confirmed by strong technical setup
4. CHOPPY/NEUTRAL - Do not trade, wait for clarity
Advanced Techniques:
• Breadth divergences: Watch for price making new highs while ADD shows ↓ (falling) = major warning
• VIX/Price divergences: Rallies with rising VIX (↑) are usually false moves
• Volume confirmation: "MAXIMUM" signals with 2x+ volume are the absolute best
• Compression zones: When both ADD and VIX show compression (±), expect explosive breakout soon
• Sequential signals: Back-to-back "MAXIMUM" signals in same direction = strong trending day
Common Patterns:
• Opening surge with "MAXIMUM BULL" that shifts to "EXHAUSTION" (yellow) = fade the high
• Selloff with "MAXIMUM BEAR" followed by ADD ↑ (rising) divergence = potential reversal
• Choppy morning followed by "MAXIMUM" signal afternoon = best trending opportunity
Example Scenarios
Perfect Bull Entry:
• Bright green signal box
• TICK: +650
• ADD: +1200 (↑)
• VIX: 18.30 (↓)
• Volume: 2.3x
• Status: "✓ MAXIMUM BULL" → ALL SYSTEMS GO - Take aggressive long positions
Strong Bull (Good Confidence):
• Green signal box (slightly less bright)
• TICK: +500
• ADD: +800 (↑)
• VIX: 19.50 (±)
• Volume: 1.2x
• Status: "✓ STRONG BULL" → Good long setup - breadth confirming even without VIX/volume
Caution Bull (Moderate):
• Faded green signal box
• TICK: +400
• ADD: +900 (↓)
• VIX: 20.10 (↑)
• Volume: 0.9x
• Status: "MODERATE BULL" → CAUTION - TICK bullish but breadth deteriorating and VIX rising = weak rally
Exhaustion Warning:
• Yellow signal box
• TICK: +1350 ⚠
• ADD: +2100 (↑)
• VIX: 17.20 (↓)
• Volume: 1.8x
• Status: "⚠ EXHAUSTION" → Take profits or prepare to fade - TICK overextended despite good internals
Divergence Setup (Potential Reversal):
• Faded green signal
• TICK: +300
• ADD: +1800 (↓)
• VIX: 21.50 (↑)
• Volume: 1.6x
• Status: "MODERATE BULL" → WARNING - Price rallying but breadth collapsing and fear rising = distribution
Perfect Bear Entry:
• Bright red signal box
• TICK: -780
• ADD: -1600 (↓)
• VIX: 24.80 (↑)
• Volume: 2.5x
• Status: "✓ MAXIMUM BEAR" → Perfect short setup - all momentum bearish with conviction
Compression (Wait Mode):
• Gray signal box
• TICK: +50
• ADD: -200 (±)
• VIX: 16.40 (±)
• Volume: 0.7x
• Status: "CHOPPY/NEUTRAL" → STAY OUT - Volatility compression, no conviction, await breakout
Performance Optimization
Best Market Conditions:
• Works excellent in trending markets (up or down)
• Particularly powerful during high-volume sessions (first/last hours)
• "MAXIMUM" signals most reliable during 9:45-11:00 AM and 2:00-3:30 PM ET
Less Effective During:
• Lunch period (11:30 AM - 1:30 PM) - lower volume reduces signal quality
• Low-volatility environments - compression signals dominate
• Major news events in first 5 minutes - wait for internals to stabilize
Recommended Use Cases:
• Scalping: Trade only "MAXIMUM" signals for quick 5-15 minute moves
• Daytrading: Use "MAXIMUM" and "STRONG" signals for position entries
• Swing entries: Use "MAXIMUM" signals for optimal intraday entry timing
• Exit timing: Use "EXHAUSTION" (yellow) warnings to take profits
________________________________________
Pro Tip: Create a dedicated workspace with this indicator on SPY/ES/NQ charts. Set alerts for "MAXIMUM BULL", "MAXIMUM BEAR", and "EXHAUSTION" signals. Most professional traders only trade the "MAXIMUM" setups and ignore everything else - this alone can dramatically improve win rates.
NAS Oracle AlgoThe NAS Oracle Algo is a powerful and versatile daily trading indicator designed to provide clear, automated support and resistance levels for both long and short trading strategies. By calculating a dynamic range based on the previous day's price action, it projects key entry points, stop-losses, and up to six profit targets onto your chart, giving you a complete roadmap for the trading day.
Key Features:
Dual-Sided Strategy: Generates independent levels for BUY and SELL setups, making it effective for both directional and range-bound markets.
Customizable Reference Point: Choose between using the current day's "Open" or the previous day's "Pre Close" as the base for all calculations.
Comprehensive Levels:
Entry Level: The price level to execute a trade.
Stop Loss: A predefined level to limit potential losses.
Profit Targets (1-6): Six incremental take-profit levels, allowing for partial profit-taking strategies.
Multiple Display Options:
Visual Levels & Labels: Clean horizontal lines and text labels are drawn directly on the chart for easy price reference.
Information Table: A highly customizable data table that summarizes all key levels, which can be positioned at the Top or Bottom of the chart and resized.
Flexible Configuration: Toggle the visibility of levels and choose to show either 3 or 6 profit targets to suit your trading style and avoid chart clutter.
How to Use:
Add the Indicator: Apply the "NAS Oracle Algo" to your chart. It works best on daily and intraday timeframes.
Configure Settings: In the indicator's settings, choose your preferred Option (Open/Pre Close), toggle levels and the table on/off, and adjust their position and size.
Interpret the Signals:
BUY Setup: When the price moves above the green "Buy Above" level, consider a long entry.
Stop Loss: Place your stop loss at the BUY_SL level.
Take Profit: Scale out of your position at the six progressively higher target levels (T1 to T6).
SELL Setup: When the price moves below the red "Sell Below" level, consider a short entry.
Stop Loss: Place your stop loss at the SELL_SL level.
BTST Stats BTST Statistical Edge Analyzer — VCR · Volume · SMA · RSI Filtered
This indicator isn’t a trading signal generator.
It’s a research framework designed to answer a simple but valuable question:
“Does Buy-Today-Sell-Tomorrow (BTST) have statistical edge under specific market conditions?”
Most traders assume BTST works because they feel markets gap.
This script measures whether that belief holds true — and under what filters.
🔍 What the Indicator Does
For each bar, the script simulates a BTST trade:
Entry: previous bar’s close
Exit: current bar’s open
Result: Open(next day) − Close(previous day)
But a BTST trade is only counted if the entry bar satisfies the filter logic.
🎯 Entry Filters You Can Tune
A trade is included only if ALL activated conditions are satisfied:
Filter Rule
VCR Filter Candle volatility ratio must exceed threshold: `(High−Low) /
Volume Filter Volume must be greater than n × AverageVolume
SMA Trend Filter (Optional) Close must be above a user-selected SMA length
RSI Condition (Optional) RSI must be between a user-defined min/max band
This allows testing BTST under different volatility, trend, and momentum conditions.
📊 What the Table Shows
For all qualifying trades inside the chosen lookback window, the indicator displays:
Metric Meaning
Profitable Trades Count of BTST trades with positive overnight return
Losing Trades Count of negative overnight returns
Avg Profit Average upside gain on winner trades
Avg Loss Average downside loss on losing trades
Avg Net per Trade Overall expectancy across all trades
Avg High After Entry Average maximum price movement above entry (potential upside)
Avg Low After Entry Average price movement against the entry (risk exposure)
Winner-Only High/Low Stats How far good trades move and how much heat they take
Loser-Only High/Low Stats How bad trades behave, including early fake-outs
Together, these reveal:
Opportunity potential
Risk exposure
Whether trades behave cleanly or chaotically
Whether exits are leaving money on the table
🧠 Why This Matters
BTST edges change drastically across:
Market regimes
Trend direction
Volatility clusters
Earnings cycles
Volume surges
This tool helps identify when BTST should be traded — and when it should be avoided entirely.
Rather than guessing, traders can:
Validate if their BTST assumptions hold,
Apply filters until the expectancy improves,
Rank symbols and conditions where the system performs best.
🚫 Not a Buy/Sell Indicator
This script does not place arrows, signals, alerts, or entries.
It exists for analysis and system development, not live execution.
Use it to:
Build ideas
Validate hypotheses
Compare symbols
Optimize BTST frameworks
Decide if BTST belongs in your playbook — or in the trash
🔧 Who This Is For
✔ System traders
✔ Quant-minded traders
✔ Options/Index traders who rely on gaps
✔ Swing traders testing overnight holds
✔ Developers building automated BTST logic
Final Thought
BTST isn’t magic — it’s just a behavior pattern.
Some markets reward it.
Some punish it.
Some reward it only under the right volatility and volume conditions.
This tool tells you which is which.
(CRT) MTF Candle Range Theory Model# 🚀 **CASH Pro MTF – Candle Range Theory (CRT) Indicator**
**The Smart Money ICT Setup Detector** 🔥
Hey Traders!
Here is the **ultimate Pine Script indicator** that automatically detects one of the most powerful Smart Money / ICT setups: **Candle Range Theory (CRT)**
---
### What is Candle Range Theory – CRT?
**CRT** is a high-probability price action model based on **liquidity grabs** and **range expansion**.
Price loves to:
1️⃣ Raid the low/high of the previous candle (take stop-losses)
2️⃣ Then reverse and run to the opposite side of the range (or beyond)
When this happens near a **key higher-timeframe level**, magic happens!
### Bullish CRT Model
- Price touches a **strong HTF support**
- Previous candle closes near that support
- Next candle **sweeps the low** (grabs liquidity)
- Current candle **closes above the raided low AND breaks the high** of the sweep candle
**Result → Aggressive bullish move expected!**
**Entry:** On close above the high (or on retest + MSS)
**Stop Loss:** Below the swept low
**Take Profit:** CRT High or next liquidity pool
### Bearish CRT Model
- Price touches a **strong HTF resistance**
- Previous candle closes near resistance
- Next candle **sweeps the high** (grabs buy stops)
- Current candle **closes below the raided high AND breaks the low** of the sweep candle
**Result → Strong bearish expansion!**
**Entry:** On close below the low
**Stop Loss:** Above the swept high
**Take Profit:** CRT Low or next downside liquidity
This whole setup can form in **just 3 candles**… or sometimes more if price consolidates after the sweep.
---
### Why This Indicator is Special
This is **NOT** a simple 3-candle pattern scanner!
This is a **true CRT + MTF confluence beast** with:
- **Multi-Timeframe Confirmation** (default 4H – fully customizable)
- **Built-in RSI Filter** (avoid fake moves in overbought/oversold)
- **Day-2 High/Low Levels** automatically drawn (the exact CRT range!)
- **Clean “LONG” / “SHORT” labels** right on the candle (no ugly arrows or offset)
- **Background highlight** on signal
- **Fully grouped inputs** – super clean settings panel
---
### Features at a Glance
| Feature | Included |
|--------------------------------|----------|
| Higher Timeframe Confirmation | Yes |
| RSI Overbought/Oversold Filter | Yes |
| Day-2 High/Low Lines + Labels | Yes |
| Clean Text Signals (no offset) | Yes |
| Background Highlight | Yes |
| Fully Customizable Colors & Text| Yes |
| Works on All Markets & TFs | Yes |
---
### How to Use
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. Wait for a **LONG** or **SHORT** label to appear
3. Confirm price is near a **key HTF level** (order block, FVG, etc.)
4. Enter on close or retest (your choice)
5. Manage risk with the drawn Day-2 levels
**Pro Tip:** Combine with ICT Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Fair Value Gaps for even higher accuracy!
