Since 2007, AAPL has held the same trendline as support (on log scale).
In that same time period, AAPL has fallen 30-50% 6 times, and the LT support line has been tested 3 times.
We are now ~40% above that trendline today.
BUT APPLE IS SUCH A STRONG COMPANY?!
Yeah, okay, but last time it was trading above a PE of 20x was back around 2007-2010. Clearly the valuation is reflecting the "SUCH A STRONG COMPANY" ****sentiment**** rather than a rational investor sentiment. Why has AAPL been spared from the 50% downturn that most other tech stocks have faced?
If we were to take a >30% correction, we would get back down to the 20x PE value (on current financials), and frankly, we're about due for the first AAPL correction in a few years.
I've made money on AAPL over the years. It's a great LT hold... I just think now is a prudent time to take some cash off the table and to prepare for the next buying spree, likely closer to the ~120 range where we had such support last year.
In that same time period, AAPL has fallen 30-50% 6 times, and the LT support line has been tested 3 times.
We are now ~40% above that trendline today.
BUT APPLE IS SUCH A STRONG COMPANY?!
Yeah, okay, but last time it was trading above a PE of 20x was back around 2007-2010. Clearly the valuation is reflecting the "SUCH A STRONG COMPANY" ****sentiment**** rather than a rational investor sentiment. Why has AAPL been spared from the 50% downturn that most other tech stocks have faced?
If we were to take a >30% correction, we would get back down to the 20x PE value (on current financials), and frankly, we're about due for the first AAPL correction in a few years.
I've made money on AAPL over the years. It's a great LT hold... I just think now is a prudent time to take some cash off the table and to prepare for the next buying spree, likely closer to the ~120 range where we had such support last year.