How to Study Price and Wave volume Relationship

17 בנוב׳ 2022

Hi 👋
In this post I would try to throw some light on the Price & Wave Volume relationship (popularized by late David Weis).

This method may help trades in two ways:
1️⃣Ride the trend
2️⃣Picking the end of a rally

I came across this chart randomly and found that there are a few principles that I can discuss with the help of this chart.

Before reading any further I want to disclose that this technique was not originally developed by me. However, different authors may have different interpretations when it comes to some techniques of discretionary trading. This is a small piece of what I have learnt as a big follower of price action trading.

I don’t want to go for bar by bar analysis here due to time and space constraints, so I have marked a few important places (as numbers in green rectangles) that are important and need to be discussed.

The numbers in white are the cumulative wave volume in crores. This means just keep on adding the volume of each up bar until there is a reversal. I have taken the reversal a 2points on closing basis. Which means I keep on adding the volume until the price closes 2points below the close of the previous bar. The opposite is true for down waves.

🚀Point1
If you look at the upwave preceding the downwave at point1, it is the sharpest of the rallies from March 2020 lows (scroll back the chart a bit). Also wave volume is the highest (37cr) compared to 10,19 and 18cr on previous upwaves.

At point 1 there is 10cr volume on the downwave, which is the highest on any downwave in the rally from Mar2020 lows. This is an alarming signal that sellers are getting active. But this may not impress us to liquidate our trades as we need further evidence to confirm this weakness.

🚀Point2
Here we have very high volume accompanied by the widest bar (in the rally) but closing in the middle. These three things confirm here that sellers have stepped in and the stock is weakening.

🚀Point3
There is a rally back to the highs but this time with lesser volume (29cr compared to 37cr) than preceding rallies. This is our second confirmation that buyers are turning there back at this level, at least for now. This is a sure exit opportunity for investors who bought at the lows.

🚀Point4
There was a sharp reaction with huge volume of 31cr and very wide bar, closing off of its lows. At this point there is still confusion that the trend has reversed or not. If it was a reversal then there would have been a follow through of 31cr volume on the downside but it is not so. For the next 3 days price sustained above the low of this wide downbar.

🚀Point5
The sellers again tried to push to the stock down but look at the volume in this wave. Are you getting it now? Its just 13cr instead of 31cr on the last downwave. This infers here that seller are not interested. So if seller are not interested then what will happen? Buyers will take over.

🚀Point6
The sellers tested the level of 1, 4 and 5 a few more times, buyers holds it and that develops a support. There was a very strong rally (compared to rallies in the last one year) back to the highs and volume is again 23cr which is lesser than volume at previous highs.

Lesser volume could have 2 interpretations – there are less sellers this time and/or buyers are not interested.

🚀Point7
The stock is back to the support again. But volume on downwaves is much lesser in relative terms. In fact, it decreasing from 13 to 4 and then 2cr (see chart). Where have the sellers gone? They don’t want to sell at the support.

🚀Point8
Lack of selling leads to buying and eventually to new highs. Notice that there in very less volume at point 8 (only 4cr). This time sellers attempt (5cr) was failed quickly (without hitting support) and new highs were made outside resistance (developed at 2, 3 and 6).

At this stage, when the price is closing outside the resistance, I would expect more volume to come in. More volume at this stage would indicate that buyers are interested but that is not the case here.

🚀Point9
Point 8 looked like a failed breakout attempt. The price fell back into the trading range (between support and resistance). If I look at volume here, it is 15cr on this downwave. In the immediately preceding fall with 17cr it touched the bottom end of the range but this time with 15cr it is just at the middle of the range. This signifies re-accumulation at point 9.

🚀Point10
Re-accumulation lead to a rally back into resistance. We have 13cr as of now. Its too early to say, before this upwave ends, but 13cr is less (for me at this point) to push it any further. It seems holding back in the range.

🚀🚀Final thoughts
This is a very nice and rare example showing both distribution (by the seller at resistance level) and accumulation (by the buyers at support level). Normally the price peeps outside the range on both sides and fails to follow through, until there is a decisive break on either side.

I hope you learnt something new in this post.
Now you can do one thing, press 🚀 to encourage me to write more educational stuff.
Thanks for reading.