Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 2]
מעודכן
In Part 1 I outlined an approach that I have been working on that's aimed towards trading parabolic markets. Now we look at some trades!
Amazon
Daily
Notes: Hyperwave Phase 4 if it supports throwback to prior ATH’ | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Daily ADX recently crossed 25 | Weekly ADX = 37 and is currently crossing +DI | Daily RSI = 61.46 & Weekly RSI = 74.78 | Cluster of support at $1,720 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, the weekly and daily TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $2.49 vs $5.07 actual earnings per share for a +103% surprise.
Time Analysis: Horizontal meets trend on 8/6/18
Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,720 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily
Microsoft
Weekly
Notes: If it supports throwback to prior ATH’ then phase 3 is confirmed | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX > 25 | Weekly RSI = 71.14 | Daily RSI = 59 | Cluster of support at $102 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $1.07 vs $1.13 actual for a +5.61% surprise.
Time Analysis: Trend meets horizontal support on 8/10
Possible Entries: Blind order at $103 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily.
Risk: 5.31%
Potential Return: +92.5%
Risk:Reward = 18.5:1
Alphabet
Notes: Tyler Jenks said that he is waiting for new ATH, throwback and new ATH to confirm phase 4 of the hyperwave (pink dotted) | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Support cluster at $1,196 from: prior horizontal resistance, phase 4 of the hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST level, weekly Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen and daily cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $9.45 vs $11.75 actual earnings per share for a +24.34% surprise. Better than expected earnings despite 55B fine. 32.66B in Q-2 revenue vs 26.01B during Q-2 of 2017. Expected: 6.7B income on 25.6B in revenue. 8.27B in revenue and $4.54 earnings per share.
Time Analysis: Horizontal support meets hyperwave on 9/17 | Green 3 > Green 2 on the weekly indicates 6 weeks left to the upside.
Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,198. Buy consolidation with reversal candles at support cluster. Wait for green 2 to trade above a green 1 on the daily.
Risk: 10.5%
Potential for return: +92.5%
Risk:Reward = 8.8:1
The Boeing Company
Notes: Hyperwave phase 4 | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX < 20 while price consolidates inside triangle | Currently getting support from daily cloud and 50 day MA | Weekly RSI = 64 | Daily RSI = 55.61
Q-2 Earnings Call: Expected earnings per share: $3.45 vs $3.33 actual earnings per share for a -3.48% surprise. 4.7B of operating cash and repurchased 3.0B of Boeing stock. Paid 11B in dividends, reflecting a 20% increase from last year. Q-2 Revenue = 24.3B with a higher volume of commercial deliveries and a favorable mix of services and defense contracts.
Time Analysis: Triangle will be 66% completed on 10/30 and that is the most likely time for a breakout to occur.
Possible Entries: Breakout of $380 that is supported by volume | Throwback to $380 on decreasing volume | Green 2 > Green 1 after breaking out from $380
Risk: 9.16%
Potential Reward: If triangle is a bull flag and 9/5/16 to 2/12/18 is the pole then the target = $617 or +64.53%
Risk:reward = 9.16%:64.53%
Saved the best for last and ran out of room. Will have to make this a three part post.
Amazon
Daily
Notes: Hyperwave Phase 4 if it supports throwback to prior ATH’ | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Daily ADX recently crossed 25 | Weekly ADX = 37 and is currently crossing +DI | Daily RSI = 61.46 & Weekly RSI = 74.78 | Cluster of support at $1,720 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, the weekly and daily TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $2.49 vs $5.07 actual earnings per share for a +103% surprise.
Time Analysis: Horizontal meets trend on 8/6/18
Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,720 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily
Microsoft
Weekly
Notes: If it supports throwback to prior ATH’ then phase 3 is confirmed | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX > 25 | Weekly RSI = 71.14 | Daily RSI = 59 | Cluster of support at $102 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $1.07 vs $1.13 actual for a +5.61% surprise.
Time Analysis: Trend meets horizontal support on 8/10
Possible Entries: Blind order at $103 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily.
Risk: 5.31%
Potential Return: +92.5%
Risk:Reward = 18.5:1
Alphabet
Notes: Tyler Jenks said that he is waiting for new ATH, throwback and new ATH to confirm phase 4 of the hyperwave (pink dotted) | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Support cluster at $1,196 from: prior horizontal resistance, phase 4 of the hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST level, weekly Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen and daily cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $9.45 vs $11.75 actual earnings per share for a +24.34% surprise. Better than expected earnings despite 55B fine. 32.66B in Q-2 revenue vs 26.01B during Q-2 of 2017. Expected: 6.7B income on 25.6B in revenue. 8.27B in revenue and $4.54 earnings per share.
Time Analysis: Horizontal support meets hyperwave on 9/17 | Green 3 > Green 2 on the weekly indicates 6 weeks left to the upside.
Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,198. Buy consolidation with reversal candles at support cluster. Wait for green 2 to trade above a green 1 on the daily.
Risk: 10.5%
Potential for return: +92.5%
Risk:Reward = 8.8:1
The Boeing Company
Notes: Hyperwave phase 4 | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX < 20 while price consolidates inside triangle | Currently getting support from daily cloud and 50 day MA | Weekly RSI = 64 | Daily RSI = 55.61
Q-2 Earnings Call: Expected earnings per share: $3.45 vs $3.33 actual earnings per share for a -3.48% surprise. 4.7B of operating cash and repurchased 3.0B of Boeing stock. Paid 11B in dividends, reflecting a 20% increase from last year. Q-2 Revenue = 24.3B with a higher volume of commercial deliveries and a favorable mix of services and defense contracts.
Time Analysis: Triangle will be 66% completed on 10/30 and that is the most likely time for a breakout to occur.
Possible Entries: Breakout of $380 that is supported by volume | Throwback to $380 on decreasing volume | Green 2 > Green 1 after breaking out from $380
Risk: 9.16%
Potential Reward: If triangle is a bull flag and 9/5/16 to 2/12/18 is the pole then the target = $617 or +64.53%
Risk:reward = 9.16%:64.53%
Saved the best for last and ran out of room. Will have to make this a three part post.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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