Balrampur Chini: Ethanol Policy Cheer Meets Wave 2/B Setup

Sugar stocks have been buzzing with news flow. First, the government allowed mills to produce ethanol from sugarcane juice, syrup, and all types of molasses without any restrictions in 2025/26. With strong monsoon rains and expanded cane acreage, supplies look abundant. The move supports India’s roadmap to hit 20% blending by 2025/26.

But here’s the bitter truth: higher cane costs (₹3,400/quintal) and flat ethanol prices (~₹60–65/litre) mean ethanol margins are weak. Mills still earn far more selling sugar directly (~₹3,820/quintal). Analysts note that despite policy incentives, cane-based ethanol isn’t as profitable, leaving grain-based distilleries in a better spot than traditional sugar mills like Balrampur.

Sources:

• in.tradingview.com/news/moneycontrol:57ff7a51a094b:0-the-bitter-truth-about-sugar-stocks-why-the-ethanol-induced-rally-may-not-last/
• in.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3UO0GS:0-india-allows-production-of-ethanol-from-sugarcane-juice-molasses/

Technical setup
On the charts, Balrampur Chini has worked through a W–X–Y correction into the golden 0.618 retracement (498). RSI is showing bullish divergence, hinting that selling pressure is waning.

• Breakout above 522 could confirm a Wave 2/B bottom, setting up Wave 3/C toward 626+.
  
• Invalidation sits at 485.80 — below which the corrective structure may extend.
  

Takeaway
While policy changes sweeten the ethanol story, pricing reality tempers the optimism. Still, the chart suggests a potential bullish swing in Balrampur if resistance at 522 breaks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.