Bitcoin April 2018 10.000 Fractal
מעודכן
I posted this analysis 2 days ago, but it got banned for something i was not aware of not being allowed. I respect the rules of TV and understand them, i have just seen something similar countless times before with others, so i assumed that what i did was allowed, but now its clear that its not. Also understand that they can't find all of them all the time, so perhaps those were the ones i had seen. Anyway, here we go again :)
So this is the fractal i mentioned a few times the past month or so, April 2018. Most of you might remember that period, it fooled almost everyone in being extremely bearish , except me of course ;).
It doesn't look identical i know, but i have several to why i assumed it could be in play. This message is what i wrote a month ago:
I had a small deja vu from April 2018 low, started with the trap move at the 7400 low, was almost the same as back then. Now when looking more at it, could be we are in the same stage. Looks like we might have similar steps
(7400 low should be 6400 by the way)
One of the scary things as well with this fractal , even the levels are almost identical.
- With the low at 6400
- The high at 8400 after the first pump
- The high at the moment at 9000 is even the same
- Alts pumped big during this rally. In 2018 it happened during the 8000 consolidation, now it was different but the pumps are there though.
Most importantly even, but i will not disclose it though. During this bottom formation, we got a identical move/pattern then and now. I mentioned it back then, showed it with a another asset outside of crypto as well. This pattern is worth gold and only happens rarely. I will give one hint, back then i kept talking about 1 big boss whale in crypto. With big boss, i mean that this whale eats up all other whales at certain important moments. Back then, i said that this big whale turned the very bearish pattern in 2018 into a big bear trap. I do not remember if i talked about it in my analysis/updates or in the comment section answering my followers.
Now i don't follow fractals blindly anymore, not as we were able to do so in the first 6 months 2018. But as long as it is in play, i see no big reason not to think it can play out. Now for example, fractal says we should not drop below 8700/8800 anymore. But i am going to give the fractal room until the important level of 8600. Since we have not made any significant correction, it could be that whales are keeping pressure on the bears here. A scenario i mentioned as well yesterday in free channel. That whales might prevent a big correction, to force one more big move up. This would be exactly the same as the fractal if that plays out. Normally, we should have seen a correction already, a bull shake out towards 8500/200 even. But so far, not seeing bigger drops than 200/250 points.
Now chart above is a zoom in of the current situation. We can see it's not the same, but also not that different. Think current move is still a consolidation (or top formation if fractal is not in play).
In the chart below, we can see a clear triangle. Normally at this position and with this shape, it should break upwards. However, past hour it has dropped back to its support again. It's a bit weird tbh that it did not just broke up, so starting to wonder if bears are in charge here on the low time frame. On the right i have drawn a wedge . This wedge is to prepare for a weak move up. Target of the triangle is 9200ish (or 8600ish if we break down). So if we see a break up, but not reaching 9100ish, or seeing like a wick up and back down below 9000/8950, than the bearish wedge might be in play. Also has a target around 8600.
For now, it's weekend so we can see some shake out moves happen as well on the low time frame. Think also important to be on the lookout for correction bigger than 200/250 points. Alts seem to be playing an important role again, so i would keep an eye on those as well. With that i mean, if you see alts showing real strength (with a move up or a bullish consolidation), while bitcoin moves sideways, in 2018 it would mean that Bitcoin would follow eventually. This could be the case now as well.
Update on this analysis: I will make an update later today, but for now assuming the fractal is still in play (even though the break out was only to 9200), would mean we are in the blue line zone now. Which means, we should be making a bottom formation in this 8400/700 zone coming day or 2. I have not watched yesterday so i am not up to date to any new signs, but will check it out tonight and will update then.
So according to the fractal, we should be in one of these 2 circles on the left. So think maybe 8350ish is the max to keep the fractal alive.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this
Previous analysis:
So this is the fractal i mentioned a few times the past month or so, April 2018. Most of you might remember that period, it fooled almost everyone in being extremely bearish , except me of course ;).
It doesn't look identical i know, but i have several to why i assumed it could be in play. This message is what i wrote a month ago:
I had a small deja vu from April 2018 low, started with the trap move at the 7400 low, was almost the same as back then. Now when looking more at it, could be we are in the same stage. Looks like we might have similar steps
(7400 low should be 6400 by the way)
One of the scary things as well with this fractal , even the levels are almost identical.
- With the low at 6400
- The high at 8400 after the first pump
- The high at the moment at 9000 is even the same
- Alts pumped big during this rally. In 2018 it happened during the 8000 consolidation, now it was different but the pumps are there though.
Most importantly even, but i will not disclose it though. During this bottom formation, we got a identical move/pattern then and now. I mentioned it back then, showed it with a another asset outside of crypto as well. This pattern is worth gold and only happens rarely. I will give one hint, back then i kept talking about 1 big boss whale in crypto. With big boss, i mean that this whale eats up all other whales at certain important moments. Back then, i said that this big whale turned the very bearish pattern in 2018 into a big bear trap. I do not remember if i talked about it in my analysis/updates or in the comment section answering my followers.
Now i don't follow fractals blindly anymore, not as we were able to do so in the first 6 months 2018. But as long as it is in play, i see no big reason not to think it can play out. Now for example, fractal says we should not drop below 8700/8800 anymore. But i am going to give the fractal room until the important level of 8600. Since we have not made any significant correction, it could be that whales are keeping pressure on the bears here. A scenario i mentioned as well yesterday in free channel. That whales might prevent a big correction, to force one more big move up. This would be exactly the same as the fractal if that plays out. Normally, we should have seen a correction already, a bull shake out towards 8500/200 even. But so far, not seeing bigger drops than 200/250 points.
Now chart above is a zoom in of the current situation. We can see it's not the same, but also not that different. Think current move is still a consolidation (or top formation if fractal is not in play).
In the chart below, we can see a clear triangle. Normally at this position and with this shape, it should break upwards. However, past hour it has dropped back to its support again. It's a bit weird tbh that it did not just broke up, so starting to wonder if bears are in charge here on the low time frame. On the right i have drawn a wedge . This wedge is to prepare for a weak move up. Target of the triangle is 9200ish (or 8600ish if we break down). So if we see a break up, but not reaching 9100ish, or seeing like a wick up and back down below 9000/8950, than the bearish wedge might be in play. Also has a target around 8600.
For now, it's weekend so we can see some shake out moves happen as well on the low time frame. Think also important to be on the lookout for correction bigger than 200/250 points. Alts seem to be playing an important role again, so i would keep an eye on those as well. With that i mean, if you see alts showing real strength (with a move up or a bullish consolidation), while bitcoin moves sideways, in 2018 it would mean that Bitcoin would follow eventually. This could be the case now as well.
Update on this analysis: I will make an update later today, but for now assuming the fractal is still in play (even though the break out was only to 9200), would mean we are in the blue line zone now. Which means, we should be making a bottom formation in this 8400/700 zone coming day or 2. I have not watched yesterday so i am not up to date to any new signs, but will check it out tonight and will update then.
So according to the fractal, we should be in one of these 2 circles on the left. So think maybe 8350ish is the max to keep the fractal alive.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this
Previous analysis:
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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