Bitcoin Fractal Update, part 2
מעודכן
I posted this fractal a week ago because the movements were very similar. As if it was showing how one big whale/fund/whatever is controlling this market. Showing similar steps that are being taken to dump this market. There are so many theories going around past 2 years (because people only complain when things go south, just like in world economy now and stock market, everything is great ><). From the big banks pushing price down, so they can accumulate at low prices for long term investment, or to accumulate so they control most of the coins and can destroy the market if they would want to because it's a threat for the banking system. If it's not these world elite people doing, there are countless other theories.
Problem past few months is, volumes have dropped a lot, this gives room for even a big fund to play around. So it doesn't even have to be as far fetched as the world banking elite theory to do this. To make things less complex, i always see the market as smart money and dumb money. We just need to try and follow the smart money if we can track them, whoever they are.
Markets are simple, from a certain point, it's actually nothing more than shifting from money. Where i make a profit, someone else makes a loss and vice versa. So at the highs, smart money is selling/shorting and at the lows it's the other way around. You can assume that the whales in the world would love to keep it in a certain range, let's say between 5k and 15k. Which gives them much more control about everything. I mentioned this several times early 2018, that it's much easier to control price below 10k than above. Simply because above 10k they need much more money to control a certain % of bitcoins than at a price of 5k.
This is also shows why it's so important, that we need volume. Because the way i see it, we have the above, so smart money and dumb money (retail traders) and then we have the general public who buys and sells. So as long as we don't get this general public volume in the market, there is just no way the market can make a real rally. Like we saw in 2017, which is an extreme version of course, but the hype became so extreme, that we rallied up to 20k.
Crap, see the market already made another dump while i am writing this. I will continue this story another time.
I gave a max of 7250 a few days ago for the fractal, went to 7300 but we can see that was just noise. When looking at it now we can see it's prob still in full play.
Problem past few months is, volumes have dropped a lot, this gives room for even a big fund to play around. So it doesn't even have to be as far fetched as the world banking elite theory to do this. To make things less complex, i always see the market as smart money and dumb money. We just need to try and follow the smart money if we can track them, whoever they are.
Markets are simple, from a certain point, it's actually nothing more than shifting from money. Where i make a profit, someone else makes a loss and vice versa. So at the highs, smart money is selling/shorting and at the lows it's the other way around. You can assume that the whales in the world would love to keep it in a certain range, let's say between 5k and 15k. Which gives them much more control about everything. I mentioned this several times early 2018, that it's much easier to control price below 10k than above. Simply because above 10k they need much more money to control a certain % of bitcoins than at a price of 5k.
This is also shows why it's so important, that we need volume. Because the way i see it, we have the above, so smart money and dumb money (retail traders) and then we have the general public who buys and sells. So as long as we don't get this general public volume in the market, there is just no way the market can make a real rally. Like we saw in 2017, which is an extreme version of course, but the hype became so extreme, that we rallied up to 20k.
Crap, see the market already made another dump while i am writing this. I will continue this story another time.
I gave a max of 7250 a few days ago for the fractal, went to 7300 but we can see that was just noise. When looking at it now we can see it's prob still in full play.
הערה
Damn, from all the days lately, i have managed to NOT be at home today. Private matters which are more important, but still sucks though. Still glad i was able to update in my public channel at least, just easier when using mobile phone. Bulls are showing force all of a sudden. This push up does not just seem to be a short squeeze, only the start of it was. These were my updates earlier today, at the moment not much to add. Looks like the daily close might become reality now. Compared this push with the one of few weeks ago, we can see this time it's much stronger, at least so far. Still a few hours left for this daily candle to change. Even if we close in the 7100/300 range, a consolidation would be most likely to see for a few days. Getting a bit crazy now.
The updates i did earlier today:
1)
High volume candle here, shorts closed and potential (temporarily) reversal here, if bulls close this candle above 6750. Only went slightly below the 6500. So maybe bulls not dead yet? But still way too soon to say. Alts took very big hits past days, so my guess is that’s it’s a temp move. Think if it drops below 6600ish again, than it was probably just a fake attempt
2)
Extreme situation:
If daily candle would close above 7200 today, think we will have a big bear trap on our hands. It would mean the bullish wedge is most likely in play, we just did not touch the 5800/6200, but bulls just stepped in even sooner (eager, bullish sign).
For now, 6700/050 needs to hold for the bulls from now on. Volume fits the picture of a low so far.
At the moment, still very similar to the fractal with this push up (this one is a bit stronger though), where we formed that triangle and eventually dropped to the 6500.
Whatever happens, I am glad we got this move, because even if we touch let’s say 7000, and dump again, this pump fits profile of a bullish wedge. So in other words, the bullish wedge has a better chance of being real now. So even if we dump again, we could be headed for a mid/long term low. Think nobody wants to see bitcoin die and enter a period like we had a year ago, full with Bart moves and crap volume.
I don’t have a read on sentiment, don’t have time to follow as I used to, but my guess is, it’s very bearish. So that is in favor of bulls as well
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