Bitcoin Second 2020 Exit Scam or Not?
מעודכן
As you know, the past few analysis worked out very great, almost perfectly even because of the fractal we had from 2 months ago. It was following each step to the point almost, many moments on the 5/15 min charts even. Maybe that was actually reason enough to scratch my back and think: Damn, this is going TO easy now. Yeah well, if only we could see the future. I actually wrote an analysis a week ago, about seeing the future, was planning to post it even before my first one last week since my 3 week absence. It's a very interesting theory (to me personally they are hard facts of the trading world). I might still complete that analysis and post it another time.
To the chart, as you can see, the yellow circle is where we were at yesterday, but this time the market pumped instead of dropping. Yesterday i took a small break and went for a long walk to clear my mind a bit AND to try and figure out what is going on, trying to solve the puzzle, the whale puzzle as i always used to try and figure out. Thing with these things are, it's always subjective, so before i write those things down, i try to look at the objective signs first.
1), as mentioned yesterday, the daily candle of yesterday is a buy signal. Of course it's not a a guaranteed signal, but many times it plays out. However, in crypto, this is not always the case. Think we all know, how Bitcoin whales manipulate daily candles, weekly and even the 4H candles. Here below i have a few examples of similar candles that i found from past year or 2 (i ignored the first 3 months of 2018, because that was a completely different market). The rule of this candle is, the wick low has to be below the previous candle and the green body close has to be above the previous body (preferably even above the previous wick). Also, the high of this green candle and the close, should be close to each other. The yellow ones are the real ones, the blue circles are like, mhooaaww, maybe it's one as well.
As we can see, it's a bit in balance even. A few were the start of a big bull trend, a few gave a small follow through (for example, if the candle was 500 points, maybe it went up another 500 and dropped again). Also a few traps as well. So think based on this, it's actually in balance, but in favor of a bullish outcome for at least a small move. But important think to note is, from the 3 big bull trend, 2 started from the real lows and 1 of them in the middle. But That one (2019 Summer rally), was an extreme rally, but more important, the move from the lows was a super strong AND super high volume rally. So i don't like to compare the current candle with that one.
From all trap candles, think the Sept 2019 one is the only one that can be compared to the current one. So think in general it could be said, that these candles are more reliable at the real lows, not somewhere in the middle like now.
Now comparing the 10K high and current one. Why did the fractal fail? Well one clear difference between then and now is, the market was SUPER bullish then. So many people calling me crazy again for being bearish and saying you have it all wrong David. Volumes were high, alts were pumping like crazy those weeks AND open intrest was super high as well. So my (somewhat subjective) theory here is, there were much more people (retail money) going long at that yellow circle than short. Which as some of you might already understand what that means, is that whales then use this (leveraged) longs to dump the market. This time, i know many people are bullish as well, but it doesn't feel the same to me as 2 months ago. So, i think there might be much more people shorting this time. What happens if too many people bet on the same direction, the market goes the other way, using those leveraged shorts to pump the market. First time past month, as i mentioned many times, OI was very low, all the way through out the rally. Past week, all of a sudden it went up during the high above 7000. To me that rings a bell, because where would you think whales accumulate, at the highs at 7K+, or more like 5500/6000 (not even saying 4500). Now problem with this is, it's doesn't give a 100% picture of what might be going on. Because it could be that whales (with whales i mean the trading pro's, not the real crypto believers), are buying spot at exchanges and are NOT using brokers like Bitmex anymore. So it could be that it gives false impression of reality. I am also not following all exchanges, so it could also be that this OI has moved to others.
Why would whales who shorted at 7k+, with the intention to dump the market, then pump it again? Well, i would have been THE whale who controls the market, if i shorted at at 7200/400 and price is at 6500/6700 and i see so much people shorting, i would most def close my shorts with big profit and then simply short it again at the highs (just look at the 10K's from 2 months ago, i think you might get the picture now). Now this is my assumption, so it's subjective, but this is how i always judge Bitcoin. Think my long term followers know my track record on how my thinking has worked out.
Another objective observation, is the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market. Think i mentioned it at the 7400ish high, that it was a bit strange that Bitcoin did NOT pump on that rally the Dow made. To me that was a sign, as if Bitcoin whales are distributing there. Now i updated yesterday on that Corona treatment that was announced yesterday after hours of the US markets, which made the Dow make quite the pump, but again Bitcoin barely moved on the Dow pump. This is of course my subjective conclusion, but draw your own conclusions from this. To me it's like an extra sign.
This is what i just wrote in my public channel, in case we would see a sudden move while i am writing this:
Writing a new analysis now, my general thought is, nothing really changed on my bearish view. Of course not convinced and therefore less confident than past week, but when was trading ever easy. For now, only a break of 7300 would put it in danger and a break of 7500ish would probably mean i need to flush it through the toilet. Now don't wanna make short term predictions at this moment, the bullish candle from yesterday could cause another push up, but my guess is, will be a small shake out wick of shorts then.
Final thing, for the short term it, i would say the green support (breakout level) around 6950 has to be the low. In theory, above that zone bulls are in favor. Now price could retest the channel lower as well, but then to the odds chance in favor of the bears. So a break of 6950ish could mean high is set already.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
To the chart, as you can see, the yellow circle is where we were at yesterday, but this time the market pumped instead of dropping. Yesterday i took a small break and went for a long walk to clear my mind a bit AND to try and figure out what is going on, trying to solve the puzzle, the whale puzzle as i always used to try and figure out. Thing with these things are, it's always subjective, so before i write those things down, i try to look at the objective signs first.
1), as mentioned yesterday, the daily candle of yesterday is a buy signal. Of course it's not a a guaranteed signal, but many times it plays out. However, in crypto, this is not always the case. Think we all know, how Bitcoin whales manipulate daily candles, weekly and even the 4H candles. Here below i have a few examples of similar candles that i found from past year or 2 (i ignored the first 3 months of 2018, because that was a completely different market). The rule of this candle is, the wick low has to be below the previous candle and the green body close has to be above the previous body (preferably even above the previous wick). Also, the high of this green candle and the close, should be close to each other. The yellow ones are the real ones, the blue circles are like, mhooaaww, maybe it's one as well.
As we can see, it's a bit in balance even. A few were the start of a big bull trend, a few gave a small follow through (for example, if the candle was 500 points, maybe it went up another 500 and dropped again). Also a few traps as well. So think based on this, it's actually in balance, but in favor of a bullish outcome for at least a small move. But important think to note is, from the 3 big bull trend, 2 started from the real lows and 1 of them in the middle. But That one (2019 Summer rally), was an extreme rally, but more important, the move from the lows was a super strong AND super high volume rally. So i don't like to compare the current candle with that one.
From all trap candles, think the Sept 2019 one is the only one that can be compared to the current one. So think in general it could be said, that these candles are more reliable at the real lows, not somewhere in the middle like now.
Now comparing the 10K high and current one. Why did the fractal fail? Well one clear difference between then and now is, the market was SUPER bullish then. So many people calling me crazy again for being bearish and saying you have it all wrong David. Volumes were high, alts were pumping like crazy those weeks AND open intrest was super high as well. So my (somewhat subjective) theory here is, there were much more people (retail money) going long at that yellow circle than short. Which as some of you might already understand what that means, is that whales then use this (leveraged) longs to dump the market. This time, i know many people are bullish as well, but it doesn't feel the same to me as 2 months ago. So, i think there might be much more people shorting this time. What happens if too many people bet on the same direction, the market goes the other way, using those leveraged shorts to pump the market. First time past month, as i mentioned many times, OI was very low, all the way through out the rally. Past week, all of a sudden it went up during the high above 7000. To me that rings a bell, because where would you think whales accumulate, at the highs at 7K+, or more like 5500/6000 (not even saying 4500). Now problem with this is, it's doesn't give a 100% picture of what might be going on. Because it could be that whales (with whales i mean the trading pro's, not the real crypto believers), are buying spot at exchanges and are NOT using brokers like Bitmex anymore. So it could be that it gives false impression of reality. I am also not following all exchanges, so it could also be that this OI has moved to others.
Why would whales who shorted at 7k+, with the intention to dump the market, then pump it again? Well, i would have been THE whale who controls the market, if i shorted at at 7200/400 and price is at 6500/6700 and i see so much people shorting, i would most def close my shorts with big profit and then simply short it again at the highs (just look at the 10K's from 2 months ago, i think you might get the picture now). Now this is my assumption, so it's subjective, but this is how i always judge Bitcoin. Think my long term followers know my track record on how my thinking has worked out.
Another objective observation, is the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market. Think i mentioned it at the 7400ish high, that it was a bit strange that Bitcoin did NOT pump on that rally the Dow made. To me that was a sign, as if Bitcoin whales are distributing there. Now i updated yesterday on that Corona treatment that was announced yesterday after hours of the US markets, which made the Dow make quite the pump, but again Bitcoin barely moved on the Dow pump. This is of course my subjective conclusion, but draw your own conclusions from this. To me it's like an extra sign.
This is what i just wrote in my public channel, in case we would see a sudden move while i am writing this:
Writing a new analysis now, my general thought is, nothing really changed on my bearish view. Of course not convinced and therefore less confident than past week, but when was trading ever easy. For now, only a break of 7300 would put it in danger and a break of 7500ish would probably mean i need to flush it through the toilet. Now don't wanna make short term predictions at this moment, the bullish candle from yesterday could cause another push up, but my guess is, will be a small shake out wick of shorts then.
Final thing, for the short term it, i would say the green support (breakout level) around 6950 has to be the low. In theory, above that zone bulls are in favor. Now price could retest the channel lower as well, but then to the odds chance in favor of the bears. So a break of 6950ish could mean high is set already.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
הערה
Had the chart on the left half day ago, but chose not to post it because i guessed it would be quite worthless, assuming games would be played with short term traders. On the right, looks like a triangle, but i think it's a trap triangle. So there is still a good chance it might pump (if we don't break down from the triangle first), but only to see it make a big drop after. But again, price should not break 7300ish, think that is the max to keep the top formation clearly alive. If that breaks, won't be easy to say this is top formation
הערה
So went up, not a real shake out wick yet, pretty stable so far it seems. Just saw a 10 mil hidden buy on Bitmex at 7175, think i saw another one at 7170. OI went up 20 mil i think past 5 min. So it seems as if something is going on now, but don't know what to make of it yet. הערה
Reached that level now, but it is still holding there so far. So not a basic wick stop hunt. If we see high volume but price not moving up, it could still turn into a Bart move as the blue line shows. But again, still holding and stable and saw some big market buying on Bitmex. So not sure what it will do, since it's so close to that 7300ish zone of which i said should be the max
הערה
So far the blue line is playing out to the point almost, however, the drop is not what i expected. The top of a shake out move is always different, sometimes its a second wick, other times it takes 2 min and sometimes it can take a day. But, normally when it starts to drop, it really dumps big and fast. Now we are not even close to the middle. So this could be judged as a retest, but from experience, when does Bitcoin do a nice retest so everyone can go long for another good pump? it is clear some weird shit was going on today, that hidden buy order of 10 mil at 7175, weird price to go long so big. OI that went up 20 mil within minutes (not sure, but remember last time i looked i saw 482, then minutes later think i saw 504.
Now the 7300ish level that i mentioned yesterday has held so far. During this pump today i wasn't sure, but think it's safe to say, that for the bears, 7300ish is the real max.
Looks as if 7160ish is a small support now (also because of the big OI increase at that level). I see a few more, but think the important one is around 7000.
So would say, between 7000 and 7300, it's slightly in favor of bulls, but a lot can happen which can all be noise. Above 7300 my whole theory of this analysis becomes shaky (with a real max of 7450/7500). Below 7000 i think the high is set and prob the bull trap as well and we can continue to drop even more
הערה
New Bitcoin analysis:
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