BTC - why we first have to fall deep before we go up
With today's analysis I would like to present to you my idea for the Bitcoin price trend until the end of December.
psychological analysis
Many traders are bullish and expect a bullish uptrend, but why? We've already seen four times a trend reversal in the $ 5750- $ 6000 range, and many see it as a safe harbor. But what if someone wants us to think that way? Let's put ourselves in the position of very wealthy investors. These want to buy cheap and sell with big return of invest. However, these have the following problem: if I enter the market with a large volume at once, I can influence the price to my detriment. So what am I doing? I collect large amounts of bitcoins (this has happened four times) and then let the market "collapse" so that as many market participants as possible panic and sell out or exit the market. The volume is getting smaller and now whales start their game. Take a look at the chart from September 2017. The price dropped from $ 5,000 to $ 3,100 and then shoot over $ 5,000 in a short time, and that's exactly what I've just described.
Technical analysis
The technical chart mainly supplies bearish signals. In my previous analysis, I have already indicated the head and shoulder formation which is now coming to an end for me, furthermore, we have a triangle formation which also tends to the end. Since there will be no positive news or anticipated changes in the Bitcoin network in the near future and the volume is decreasing daily, I assume that the already four times tested support will break soon. Since the brakeouts after the reversal are getting smaller, I suspect that the support at 5750-6000 was created artificially and is not a market technical support point. After a breakthrough of this support, I see a first support at 5400 and a second support at 4900, from here I expect the actual trend reversal, because at the end of December, the VanEck ETF is also confirmed or rejected and Bakkt partially go on the market. Here we can expect the first real FOMO which can give the market the fuel needed for a new rally. The MACD shows us a bearish crossover. The 200-day line continues to go lower, I have the further expected course continued in red colored line. The Ichimoku conversion line is also pointing down and it looks like a bearish crossover between the conversion and base lines.
My recommendation
If you already own bitcoins you should hold it, it is not really worth selling from here. Of course I could be wrong with my analysis and we could see a raise in price over the 200 days line which would be a very important indicator for an bullish up trend reversal. Anyone who wants to buy in the market should place his buy orders at 4900, 5200 and 5400. If you want to go short, you can do with a stop loss at over $ 6850, which is a relatively high amount of risk. I therefore recommend to put buy orders and wait to see what signals the market delivers. It is safer to buy in an real up trend than in a possibility of an up trend.
psychological analysis
Many traders are bullish and expect a bullish uptrend, but why? We've already seen four times a trend reversal in the $ 5750- $ 6000 range, and many see it as a safe harbor. But what if someone wants us to think that way? Let's put ourselves in the position of very wealthy investors. These want to buy cheap and sell with big return of invest. However, these have the following problem: if I enter the market with a large volume at once, I can influence the price to my detriment. So what am I doing? I collect large amounts of bitcoins (this has happened four times) and then let the market "collapse" so that as many market participants as possible panic and sell out or exit the market. The volume is getting smaller and now whales start their game. Take a look at the chart from September 2017. The price dropped from $ 5,000 to $ 3,100 and then shoot over $ 5,000 in a short time, and that's exactly what I've just described.
Technical analysis
The technical chart mainly supplies bearish signals. In my previous analysis, I have already indicated the head and shoulder formation which is now coming to an end for me, furthermore, we have a triangle formation which also tends to the end. Since there will be no positive news or anticipated changes in the Bitcoin network in the near future and the volume is decreasing daily, I assume that the already four times tested support will break soon. Since the brakeouts after the reversal are getting smaller, I suspect that the support at 5750-6000 was created artificially and is not a market technical support point. After a breakthrough of this support, I see a first support at 5400 and a second support at 4900, from here I expect the actual trend reversal, because at the end of December, the VanEck ETF is also confirmed or rejected and Bakkt partially go on the market. Here we can expect the first real FOMO which can give the market the fuel needed for a new rally. The MACD shows us a bearish crossover. The 200-day line continues to go lower, I have the further expected course continued in red colored line. The Ichimoku conversion line is also pointing down and it looks like a bearish crossover between the conversion and base lines.
My recommendation
If you already own bitcoins you should hold it, it is not really worth selling from here. Of course I could be wrong with my analysis and we could see a raise in price over the 200 days line which would be a very important indicator for an bullish up trend reversal. Anyone who wants to buy in the market should place his buy orders at 4900, 5200 and 5400. If you want to go short, you can do with a stop loss at over $ 6850, which is a relatively high amount of risk. I therefore recommend to put buy orders and wait to see what signals the market delivers. It is safer to buy in an real up trend than in a possibility of an up trend.
The analyses provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell anything. The information presented is based on personal research and interpretation.
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