Bitcoin making another bearish wedge or a triangle
מעודכן
Starting to look as if Bitcoin is making the same move as we have seen twice before past weeks. With a first a big rally, then a temp high and from there slowly going up again in the shape of a bearish wedge. So far we are seeing the same thing again.
The first one, even had a breakout upwards from the wedge and the previous high. Which eventually turned out to be a false breakout and saw that big counter move down to 7000 (and 6400 on the USD exchanges).
Maybe you remember that i posted that April 2018 fractal, because alts were moving up quite big that day, which was almost identical to April 2018. Instead of following through there was some heavy selling at that high and the bulls failed and price got pushed back down. Today we had alts moving up quite big as well so until now it's a bit similar to the first wedge.
Before everyone gets scared (i got a few scared messages from my members when i posted it earlier today). This is just an objective observation of something that happened a few times before. This is TA, finding patterns. Sometimes they work sometimes they don't. But the reason why i am showing it, in case we see rejection again and we drop again, that we have a good guideline to follow. So we don't get surprised and make panic decisions. As we can see at the first 2 wedges, both times when the wedge broke down, we had a very big retest of the former support (orange circles). Before the past 2 months, we usually never saw a retest but a straight 500 point dump in seconds. This shows that the market is much more in balance now compared to past 9 months where the bears were in control and kept playing their games as they wished to do. So this is a very good sign IMO, that we are much more in balance again. Making manipulation more difficult on the lower time frames. Also something i mentioned a few times past 2 months, Bart moves have been failing much more than they succeed. Actually even since the week before we broke the 4200 and rallied to the 5K. This would make me think that some big players simply got in back then and are still in now.
While i am writing this, it is already breaking up. But we had a breakout at the first wedge as well and this time also still below the highs of past week. If this breakout is real, think we should not drop below the 8800/8770 from this point on.
Bigger picture, bulls are still in full control and no signs of weakness yet. Volume dropped a bit as i showed in my previous analysis comparing to the ATH, but difference is too small to speak of weakness.
Lower time frame, this wedge might be something. But i am still hoping to see another push up, where volume becomes clearly even weaker than the previous push up. Also to see the next potential push up being smaller than the previous one as well. If this happens, you need to see it as if sellers are stepping in sooner at a rally but even more important, buyers are becoming less willing to buy at these highs. This usually results into a high that is less strong and less volume. A wedge is a common pattern to see at a (temp) high.
It's pushing up even higher as each minute passes. Adjusting while it moves here. On the left you see a 1m chart, where buy volume is still stronger. Usually with Bart moves, we would see sell volume become bigger than the buy volume. You can also see a possible wedge in the making now, still very premature now of course. But lets say we curve down a bit towards the wedge support line and then make another even smaller push up, than it can be it. Target of a wedge is usually the starting point. So even if a wedge plays out, the market could simply turn it up again from there. So even a wedge doesn't mean THE high is set.
Holy crap, it's already getting dumped. Was just about to say that it was weird that alts were not breaking out with this rally. Seems we have the reason to why this didn't happen
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Previous analysis:
The first one, even had a breakout upwards from the wedge and the previous high. Which eventually turned out to be a false breakout and saw that big counter move down to 7000 (and 6400 on the USD exchanges).
Maybe you remember that i posted that April 2018 fractal, because alts were moving up quite big that day, which was almost identical to April 2018. Instead of following through there was some heavy selling at that high and the bulls failed and price got pushed back down. Today we had alts moving up quite big as well so until now it's a bit similar to the first wedge.
Before everyone gets scared (i got a few scared messages from my members when i posted it earlier today). This is just an objective observation of something that happened a few times before. This is TA, finding patterns. Sometimes they work sometimes they don't. But the reason why i am showing it, in case we see rejection again and we drop again, that we have a good guideline to follow. So we don't get surprised and make panic decisions. As we can see at the first 2 wedges, both times when the wedge broke down, we had a very big retest of the former support (orange circles). Before the past 2 months, we usually never saw a retest but a straight 500 point dump in seconds. This shows that the market is much more in balance now compared to past 9 months where the bears were in control and kept playing their games as they wished to do. So this is a very good sign IMO, that we are much more in balance again. Making manipulation more difficult on the lower time frames. Also something i mentioned a few times past 2 months, Bart moves have been failing much more than they succeed. Actually even since the week before we broke the 4200 and rallied to the 5K. This would make me think that some big players simply got in back then and are still in now.
While i am writing this, it is already breaking up. But we had a breakout at the first wedge as well and this time also still below the highs of past week. If this breakout is real, think we should not drop below the 8800/8770 from this point on.
Bigger picture, bulls are still in full control and no signs of weakness yet. Volume dropped a bit as i showed in my previous analysis comparing to the ATH, but difference is too small to speak of weakness.
Lower time frame, this wedge might be something. But i am still hoping to see another push up, where volume becomes clearly even weaker than the previous push up. Also to see the next potential push up being smaller than the previous one as well. If this happens, you need to see it as if sellers are stepping in sooner at a rally but even more important, buyers are becoming less willing to buy at these highs. This usually results into a high that is less strong and less volume. A wedge is a common pattern to see at a (temp) high.
It's pushing up even higher as each minute passes. Adjusting while it moves here. On the left you see a 1m chart, where buy volume is still stronger. Usually with Bart moves, we would see sell volume become bigger than the buy volume. You can also see a possible wedge in the making now, still very premature now of course. But lets say we curve down a bit towards the wedge support line and then make another even smaller push up, than it can be it. Target of a wedge is usually the starting point. So even if a wedge plays out, the market could simply turn it up again from there. So even a wedge doesn't mean THE high is set.
Holy crap, it's already getting dumped. Was just about to say that it was weird that alts were not breaking out with this rally. Seems we have the reason to why this didn't happen
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this:
Previous analysis:
הערה
It was this April 2018 fractal analysis btw:
הערה
Here we can see how these alts, most of them, barely moved with the 400 point rally of Bitcoin.What a nasty move once again, showing how disgusting this market can be. Just when i say Bart moves have become less likely, we get the biggest one in a while just now. I can still delete the sentences about this though ;)
הערה
I can't remember when exactly, but we had one or a few more of this half finished wedges before past half year. Will try to find them again to see what happened during those wedges. In theory, if the wedge was real the target has already been reached. At the moment it's moving inside of a small range. Could be a bear flag, will depend on how much selling volume is in the market now. Best guess now is, seeing at least a little follow through. If the bulls show some strength again, so buying up each dip, it could be over already. הערה
Seems we have a few levels now. Unless we see btc break one up we should assume the bears (or profit taking) are still in control. Think eth might be something to watch as well. Already made a big drop so both options are realistic here. So i think either a triangle or a bearish wedge. הערה
So turned out to be a bearish wedge for ETH, target reached but instead of a bounce it formed another bear flag and made an even bigger dump. Typical violent profit taking dump again. I think this looks like April 2018 now. So if we see something like the blue line on the left, so bouncing up and down a bit between 8500 and 7800/900, we could form like a double bottom shape and maybe continue the rally again. Volume was big, but not huge yet. So the bulls still have a decent chance if we see some consolidation here coming days.
At the moment, we can see btc made like a small bull flag, so if the green in the middle holds, chances increase some again. If bull are able to touch at least 8400 and preferably get closer to 8500, chances of that double bottom shape will increase as well.
הערה
Update on the ATH fractal
הערה
Looks like Bitcoin formed a triangle, with a target around the yellow circle. However, this common on low time frame bear flag, to see a triangle at first. At actually already explains it. A triangle gets formed because bull are making an attempt. But when they fall short and don't have the strength to reach the target, it eventually becomes a bear flag. A good indication with situation like these is, seeing buyers keep it against the resistance for a while, like now trying to keep it above the 8360/80. If we see them keep it above that level for like another 2 hours or so, chances will be big to see another push up towards that yellow circle.
When zooming out, since we made a new high before the dump, it usually means an ABC correction is in the making. Now the problem is, is it done already (as we can see on the left from 2 weeks ago, it was a very fast one. We have a similar shape now. So is it done already or are we going to see slow movement below like 8600 coming day or 2. If so, than chances increase that we will make another leg down to complete the ABC.
I think 8600ish is a big level for the coming days and 8800 will be a key level in a formation like this. Don't forget to check my ATH fractal analysis, because both are also still in play there.
הערה
Triangle support has held and price bounced up again. But now it starting to look like the 8500/8450 is becoming to big of a resistance. Not really a nice one, but also starting to look like a bearish wedge a bit as well now. Volume is confirming a wedge. And as the bigger picture (the ATH fractal) shows, would fit the picture to test the 7900/8200 zone again. To see if the market can hold it once again and slowly start to move up. הערה
So made another small push up, nothing special but seeing a small bull flag now, showing that bulls are not done yet. Bitcoin is entering a heavy resistance zone now, bit surprised to see how buyers are not afraid of this resistance, without making a real good consolidation at the lows first. But bitcoin has been kinda crazy past month, no real logic to be found so why start now :)For now, 8480 is a small support (of the flag) and 8400ish seems to be a bigger support on the short time frame
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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