Bitcoin small ABC's completed? Now completing the Big ABC?
מעודכן
Where it looked like it was the yellow circle, it eventually became the lower one. Like anyone can make any sense out of this low volume sideways sh.t show :). It is clear, this are all correctional moves, just difficult to pinpoint if it is from the moves down (meaning after correction dropping more) or if it is the bigger picture from the right, meaning all the moves from the 4200 has been one big correctional move (wave B) before we start wave C again.
Correctional moves are always the most confusing ones, also where traders tend to loose most of their trading capital again, because the moves are extremely random most of the time. So what a trader should do during moments like this are:
1) Reduce the sizes significantly. The big wins should be chased during impulse waves, the correctional ones should only be small wins so the losses are also small.
2) Simply sit on your hands, don't trade at all and only do swing trades. So smaller sizes with wide stops. For example, getting in here with a short, but a stop around 3750. Or a long here with a stop around 3300.
3) Trading during sideways action, needs opposite thinking. Meaning, you should actually do the opposite of what you normally do. Meaning sometimes, go long when a certain level breaks (instead of going short) and vice versa.
Anyway, it looks like that ABC fractal has been completed now. We had a small bearish wedge yesterday, where we broke upwards from. But instead of holding the level, it simply dropped again and even below the breakout level. Assuming the trend is down, it could mean we could drop some more the coming days. The only thing i am looking for, is seeing a drop to the 3450/3300 zone and if i start to see some support there in combo with other signs, i might go long again.
Other 2 options i have in mind are:
1) Seeing a big volume dump and breaking supports, meaning the market will probably go into crash mode again. Like i described a bit in the ETH' analysis.
2) We keep on moving sideways like this for another week or 2, inside the 3450/3750 zone and eventually breaking up.
Just too many mixed signal still. Some alts look bullish while others look very weak. The low volume suggest, that either the market is dead again, like in the 6K zone, or big buyers are waiting for lower prices again to get in. So unfortunately, we have to be patient a while longer before being able to really choose a direction with some confidence.
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Previous analysis:
Correctional moves are always the most confusing ones, also where traders tend to loose most of their trading capital again, because the moves are extremely random most of the time. So what a trader should do during moments like this are:
1) Reduce the sizes significantly. The big wins should be chased during impulse waves, the correctional ones should only be small wins so the losses are also small.
2) Simply sit on your hands, don't trade at all and only do swing trades. So smaller sizes with wide stops. For example, getting in here with a short, but a stop around 3750. Or a long here with a stop around 3300.
3) Trading during sideways action, needs opposite thinking. Meaning, you should actually do the opposite of what you normally do. Meaning sometimes, go long when a certain level breaks (instead of going short) and vice versa.
Anyway, it looks like that ABC fractal has been completed now. We had a small bearish wedge yesterday, where we broke upwards from. But instead of holding the level, it simply dropped again and even below the breakout level. Assuming the trend is down, it could mean we could drop some more the coming days. The only thing i am looking for, is seeing a drop to the 3450/3300 zone and if i start to see some support there in combo with other signs, i might go long again.
Other 2 options i have in mind are:
1) Seeing a big volume dump and breaking supports, meaning the market will probably go into crash mode again. Like i described a bit in the ETH' analysis.
2) We keep on moving sideways like this for another week or 2, inside the 3450/3750 zone and eventually breaking up.
Just too many mixed signal still. Some alts look bullish while others look very weak. The low volume suggest, that either the market is dead again, like in the 6K zone, or big buyers are waiting for lower prices again to get in. So unfortunately, we have to be patient a while longer before being able to really choose a direction with some confidence.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
הערה
New XRP analysis:
הערה
New LTC analysis:
הערה
For the ones who remember this from a few weeks ago, the manipulation on ETH. This is a follow up on that.
הערה
I have not updated on BTC, since there is not much to say about it. Still a lot of noise. Many alts have been making drops earlier today already, so there is money flowing out. BTC has been holding quite well so far, but there is still a big chance it will catch up. Volume is still quite low so still meaningless at the moment. There are also no real support levels to point out, since we have been making wicks the past weeks, so looks to be more random than anything else. That channel on the right broke, so chance are increasing we will see more downwards movement now. As mentioned in the analysis, a lot will depend on the volume and the speed of the drop (assuming we drop). If we see a big drop with high volume straight through the 3300, chances will be very big that we will continue to drop the coming weeks. Otherwise, that wedge play still has a reasonable chance or playing out.
הערה
ALts keep getting dumped, so it is more likely to assume we will drop some more at least with bitcoin. As long as we don’t see a decent bounce up with alts, the trend will remain downwards. Most have already dropped more than they should have, doesn’t make a bullish version impossible, but it has to change soon. At the moment it looks like alts are completely dead, like there are no buyers to be found. Bitcoin is still following its path as described in the analysis, but because the alts are much weaker than bitcoin, makes it much more difficult to judge if the bullish version still has a decent chance or not. So as mentioned above, we need to see some signs of life from the alts, otherwise it remains bearish
הערה
Now it looks more stable. The last drop went along with high buy volume. So there is a chance a low is closing in. Doesn’t mean it won’t drop anymore, only means the extreme weakness it had a few hours ago is less now. So chances increased a bit more for the bulls. But bears are still in favour of course. 3550ish is a first important level, 3600ish is the second one
הערה
Looks like the neckline of that small inverse H&S just broke, but still no reall push up though. If that red zone breaks down again, it will probably fail and anything can happen again. הערה
New BTC analysis:
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