ביטקויןלונג
BTC Probabilities by end of 2021 using Probability Cones!!!!!!!!
Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31.
In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return.
You can see how the first set of probability cones are set at the beginning of the Bull run starting on Sept 1st 2015 and ending on Jan 1st 2018. The set of 3 Probability Cones are set to the 3 different Standard Deviation Percentages. 1st SD is at 68.3%, 2nd SD is at 95.4%, and the 3rd is at 99.7%. Notice how the Bull run was halted at the bottom of the 2nd SD. When everyone was wondering where the top was and guessing using worthless traditional TA where it would be, its obvious where it was at if you were using Probability Statistics. My Point, Probability Statistics will revolutionize the way Retail Traders interact with the markets, not just drawing shapes and worthless lines on your charts.
Now flash forward to the present, the next set of Probability cones and the impending Bull Run taking place since the supposed Black Swan event of COVID. Actually it wasn't a black swan event at all and Probability Statistics and Better Math indicators realized the pullback in the markets weeks before it happened.
For an approximately normal data set, the values within one standard deviation of the mean account for about 68% of the set; while within two standard deviations account for about 95%; and within three standard deviations account for about 99.7%. Shown percentages are rounded theoretical probabilities intended only to approximate the empirical data derived from a normal population. You can see the prices of the Probabilities in the black boxes 22 Monthly candles out. 1st SD price is at $24,772 which the price is already above the 1st SD Cone projection, 2nd SD price at $95,994, and the 3rd SD at $351,197. What does this all MEAN you ask, no pun intended, it means that there are no magic lines or drawing shapes on your charts that are gonna give you the correct outcome of an event. The Markets 95% of the time are in a Random Walk, specifically the Random walk of Brownian Motion. The only thing that matters are the Standard Deviations away from the mean and the Standard Deviation of Returns is Volatility. So no more hocus pocus trying to predict where price will go. Theres only probabilities. BaPig indicators are on the cutting edge of redefining the markets...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nxwolhn5/
BaPig indicators are on the cutting edge of redefining the markets...
In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return.
You can see how the first set of probability cones are set at the beginning of the Bull run starting on Sept 1st 2015 and ending on Jan 1st 2018. The set of 3 Probability Cones are set to the 3 different Standard Deviation Percentages. 1st SD is at 68.3%, 2nd SD is at 95.4%, and the 3rd is at 99.7%. Notice how the Bull run was halted at the bottom of the 2nd SD. When everyone was wondering where the top was and guessing using worthless traditional TA where it would be, its obvious where it was at if you were using Probability Statistics. My Point, Probability Statistics will revolutionize the way Retail Traders interact with the markets, not just drawing shapes and worthless lines on your charts.
Now flash forward to the present, the next set of Probability cones and the impending Bull Run taking place since the supposed Black Swan event of COVID. Actually it wasn't a black swan event at all and Probability Statistics and Better Math indicators realized the pullback in the markets weeks before it happened.
For an approximately normal data set, the values within one standard deviation of the mean account for about 68% of the set; while within two standard deviations account for about 95%; and within three standard deviations account for about 99.7%. Shown percentages are rounded theoretical probabilities intended only to approximate the empirical data derived from a normal population. You can see the prices of the Probabilities in the black boxes 22 Monthly candles out. 1st SD price is at $24,772 which the price is already above the 1st SD Cone projection, 2nd SD price at $95,994, and the 3rd SD at $351,197. What does this all MEAN you ask, no pun intended, it means that there are no magic lines or drawing shapes on your charts that are gonna give you the correct outcome of an event. The Markets 95% of the time are in a Random Walk, specifically the Random walk of Brownian Motion. The only thing that matters are the Standard Deviations away from the mean and the Standard Deviation of Returns is Volatility. So no more hocus pocus trying to predict where price will go. Theres only probabilities. BaPig indicators are on the cutting edge of redefining the markets...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nxwolhn5/
BaPig indicators are on the cutting edge of redefining the markets...
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