as talk of a potential war between ukraine and russia continues and how bearish people think it would be, i kept thinking, "is war actually bearish?" I know that the government makes a ton of money off war via the military industrial complex, why would the market go down? I went and backtested my thesis and i was overwhelmingly right. I took a measurement of the beginning of the year that the war started to the end of the year that the war ended, so its not perfectly precise, but gives a pretty good estimate. The only big war the US has gotten in that the market went down was World War I, when it lost a measly ~12%. VIetnam (~+155%) and Afghanistan (~+188%) were the biggest gainers, and also the longest wars in US history.
הערה:
here is the jpeg version. tradingview messed up this one big time.
