Trends again nearly maxed... enjoying the rollercoaster yet?

1 בפבר׳ 2023

So I had said I believed we would have some upward movement yesterday, although it did go a about 40 points higher than I expected. However, with that level of upward movement, we are nearly maxed to the uptrends again, with just the 4hr waiting to hit, unless we are close to getting that Weekly back out of the downtrend pattern it recently went into.

It does appear that Santa Claus came a month late into the market, as every dip has been followed with a "buy the dip" mentality and pushed us higher for the entire month. The Weekly bars are either full upward movements or spinning tops to show this sentiment.

The trends going into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4043 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4055 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4071 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4020 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

If we are going to move further, I'd like to ultimately see that 12hr trend be corrected into a higher high and not a lower high movement, which could happen if we get that movement down to 3913 I am currently expecting.

Economic Data;
It is a Fed Day. There is also jobs data and PMI data today. All should cause movement in the market, though most eyes will be on Jerome Powell for forward guidance more than the rate hike. The rate hike is all but guaranteed to be 25bps.

Earnings;
Meta, T-Mobile, and Thermo Fischer are today, along with a slew of other companies. 20% of the S&P reports this week. Bigger names are coming tomorrow also.

My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bearish

Remember to trade safely and abide by your own risk management plan.

Safe Trading!

1 בפבר׳ 2023

הערה

25bps hike as expected.
Jobs data beat expectations to the upside.
FOMC is saying that more rate hikes should be expected, that no cuts are coming and they will be staying the course.

In spite of all that, at the moment, the NASDAQ is positive... which is full of growth stocks who need lower rates. The Dow Jones and S&P have not gone positive yet.
Talk about a bizarre trading response so far, waiting for the rose colored glasses to get smashed here.

1 בפבר׳ 2023

הערה

On the last downward push, I placed a stop at 4067, which hit so hard it actually struck at 4068. I was prepared to short again, but have decided to wait at this point. I think this rally is unsustainable and completely disregarding the macroeconomic outlook.
Frustrating to make chump change on a trade that took several days, especially as the market seems to trade outside of reality. However, I will wait for reality to strike. What I'll likely do is short at the close today, as the 4hr uptrend is now signaling here, and I think there will be several chances to make money on a downward push once that hits, even if I begin to feel uneasy about holding any longterm trades and likely close out every day, yet again.