Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024
Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial.
Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major).
Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302.
Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major).
Trading Strategy
Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim.
Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential.
Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch.
Bear Case
Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196).
News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024
U.S. Jobs Report
Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added.
Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience.
Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing.
Corporate News
Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced.
Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations.
Market Performance
S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1.
Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights.
Global Economic Indicators
Japan monitors volatile Yen movements.
Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns.
India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates.
Energy Sector
Oil dividend stock recommendations for April.
Shell's gas output exceeds guidance.
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut.
Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end.
Geopolitical Concerns
Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities.
U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power.
Technology & Disinformation
Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan.
Market Outlook
J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential.
Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts.
Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.
Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial.
Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major).
Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302.
Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major).
Trading Strategy
Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim.
Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential.
Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch.
Bear Case
Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196).
News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024
U.S. Jobs Report
Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added.
Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience.
Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing.
Corporate News
Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced.
Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations.
Market Performance
S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1.
Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights.
Global Economic Indicators
Japan monitors volatile Yen movements.
Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns.
India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates.
Energy Sector
Oil dividend stock recommendations for April.
Shell's gas output exceeds guidance.
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut.
Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end.
Geopolitical Concerns
Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities.
U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power.
Technology & Disinformation
Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan.
Market Outlook
J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential.
Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts.
Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.
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