Why buying EURUSD is a great chance

7 בנוב׳ 2019

Looking at the EURUSD daily chart, it clearly shows that it has come to a very important support level. That is a great reason for its purchasing. The stops are relatively small - about 30-40 points, and the profits, in this case, are about 100 points (the nearest strong resistance is located in the region of 1.1160). That is, purely technically, taking into account adequate money management (the profit margin is 2.5 times higher than the stop value), so that is a nice opportunity for earning.

The fundamental background is the only thing that can negatively influence. In our opinion, the situation with the euro does not look hopeless and the chances of supporting 1.1060 are quite large.

The Eurozone economy is experiencing tough times. However, yesterday's data on retail sales and business activity in the Eurozone came out better than expected, which is more important that the indicators showed a positive trend: retail sales grew by + 0.1% with a forecast 0%, and the composite PMI index was 50.6 with a forecast 50.2 ( the value of the indicator above 50 indicates an increase in economic and business activity). Against the background of rather weak data, these signals have been extremely positive.

Leaving the EU without a deal option is eliminated from the agenda. which is great news for the euro. Against this background, the pound rose by 1000 points. And the euro added only 100-200 points, it means that the euro did not worked out yet. Why should the euro grow because of the information that the “hard” Brexit will not take place? The fact is that Britain’s exit from the EU without a deal is not only about losses for the UK but also multibillion-dollar losses for the Eurozone economy, therefore potentially serious problems for the euro. So the removal of this issue from the agenda is a positive signal in favour of purchases of the euro. Its descent below 1.10 was an attempt to discount under exit without a deal. And since it does not take place, then the euro should return to its original position, to grow.

Trade war escalation between the US and the EU is delayed while approaching the end of trade wars between the US and China. For the euro, this is a positive signal. Let us explain: the locomotive of the Eurozone economy is Germany.
The German economy is export-dependent, that is, its success/failure is determined by the state of global markets, primarily China. The end of the trade wars between the United States and China will give a powerful impetus to the return of the world economy to the normal statement and one of the first to benefit from this will be Germany. In turn, improving the state of the German economy is improving the state of the Eurozone as a whole. And this is will reflect positively on the euro.

So, we do not see serious threats to the euro at the moment. Rather, on the contrary, there are good opportunities for buying exceptionally cheap euros.