EURUSD Prepping For A Collapse Below Parity
Fundamentals:
(1) EUR's negative outlook looks bleaker by the day. (2) Geopolitical risks remain high. (3) Market's shrugged off EUR's rate hike. (4) Gas problems will be an elevated fear until EUR can strike a deal or switch to an alternative source of energy. (5) Russia turning off the gas tap so needed by EUR.
Conclusions: (a) EURO recession. (b) Less QT than what the market expects. (c) Bond spreads will widen. (d) I continue to hold a bearish view of EUR, as it is in both a technical and "quarterly" fundamental downtrend.
Technicals:
EUR/USD stalls when it tries to go higher.
Fib confluence
dHd
Stoch overbought range
Price hitting a downward-sloping trendline
Kijun-span acting as resistance
VPA tells a story that bulls are struggling and bears will soon have the upper hand in the medium-term
I am targeting below parity towards around 0.9650 for a 2:1 or 3:1 reward:risk ratio.
(1) EUR's negative outlook looks bleaker by the day. (2) Geopolitical risks remain high. (3) Market's shrugged off EUR's rate hike. (4) Gas problems will be an elevated fear until EUR can strike a deal or switch to an alternative source of energy. (5) Russia turning off the gas tap so needed by EUR.
Conclusions: (a) EURO recession. (b) Less QT than what the market expects. (c) Bond spreads will widen. (d) I continue to hold a bearish view of EUR, as it is in both a technical and "quarterly" fundamental downtrend.
Technicals:
EUR/USD stalls when it tries to go higher.
Fib confluence
dHd
Stoch overbought range
Price hitting a downward-sloping trendline
Kijun-span acting as resistance
VPA tells a story that bulls are struggling and bears will soon have the upper hand in the medium-term
I am targeting below parity towards around 0.9650 for a 2:1 or 3:1 reward:risk ratio.
כתב ויתור
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