Potential swing trade on NZD/JPY
A soft inflation report from New Zealand weighed broadly on the Kiwi dollar yesterday, as traders began to price in the prospects of a 25bp hike (down form 50bp) or even a pause at the RBNZ's next meeting. The slight risk-off tone saw flows into the yen, and risk-currencies such as AUD and NZD were lower which has placed ZD/JPY on our shirt watchlist.
The cross has seen repeated failures to close above 83.50 over the past three weeks, and yesterday's high met resistance perfectly at the 200-day EMA. Given the bearish engulfing candle which has now formed, we suspect a leg lower seems more probably than a break higher. Also note the decisive close beneath trend support.
- The bias remains bearish beneath yesterday's high
- However, we'll seek bearish setups below/around 83.15 (50% retracement of yesterday's open-close range)
- Initial target is the cycle just above 82.0
The cross has seen repeated failures to close above 83.50 over the past three weeks, and yesterday's high met resistance perfectly at the 200-day EMA. Given the bearish engulfing candle which has now formed, we suspect a leg lower seems more probably than a break higher. Also note the decisive close beneath trend support.
- The bias remains bearish beneath yesterday's high
- However, we'll seek bearish setups below/around 83.15 (50% retracement of yesterday's open-close range)
- Initial target is the cycle just above 82.0
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