Good morning,
I have traded this for the last 15 years, I am 14-1 on this trade, has a high probability of success. Time Frame is 8/2-8/19. The initial "crash and return to mean" is due to the seasonal demand consequence of the market. Low margin req, calender spreads would be a good option, I will let you figure out the set up as I can't give everything away. Entry can be tricky as, 80% of the trades in the last 15yrs have been initiated on 8/2, the other 20% on 8/3 to 8/4. After analyzing the trades the best equity option for this trade is usually realized between 8/8-8/11 (15yr average best entry range) as an entry and it varies however that is why you need to be monitoring this extremely boring trade. Exit will be on 8/16->8/18. Now the other issue is the open interest on the September contract, if you will be going that route on the front or back end, as it will exit quickly between this exit timeframe so do not hesitate to offset contracts a little early as 42,000 barrels of gasoline showing up at your house is not part of the plan. Be diligent on this trade as it has a high success rate however there are some hidden pitfalls in this trade.
"No sleep and I sound like a suit again, vague, gives hints, and is kinda dumb." -Kewlkat
I have traded this for the last 15 years, I am 14-1 on this trade, has a high probability of success. Time Frame is 8/2-8/19. The initial "crash and return to mean" is due to the seasonal demand consequence of the market. Low margin req, calender spreads would be a good option, I will let you figure out the set up as I can't give everything away. Entry can be tricky as, 80% of the trades in the last 15yrs have been initiated on 8/2, the other 20% on 8/3 to 8/4. After analyzing the trades the best equity option for this trade is usually realized between 8/8-8/11 (15yr average best entry range) as an entry and it varies however that is why you need to be monitoring this extremely boring trade. Exit will be on 8/16->8/18. Now the other issue is the open interest on the September contract, if you will be going that route on the front or back end, as it will exit quickly between this exit timeframe so do not hesitate to offset contracts a little early as 42,000 barrels of gasoline showing up at your house is not part of the plan. Be diligent on this trade as it has a high success rate however there are some hidden pitfalls in this trade.
"No sleep and I sound like a suit again, vague, gives hints, and is kinda dumb." -Kewlkat
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We won again see you next month