The market is firmly in a strong bearish trend, but the close at a pivotal support suggests extreme volatility today due to the RBI MPC outcome.
Detailed Market Structure Breakdown
4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)
Structure: The Sensex is in an accelerated corrective phase, trading within a steep descending channel. The price is positioned right on the strong macro demand zone of 80,200 - 80,400. This area is a key Bullish Order Block (OB) and the base of the previous significant rally. The recent candle shows a pullback, followed by consolidation at this level.
Key Levels:
Major Supply (Resistance): 81,000 - 81,200. This area is the key overhead resistance, aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel and a short-term FVG (Fair Value Gap).
Major Demand (Support): 80,200 - 80,400. This is the crucial "line in the sand." A sustained breakdown below 80,200 would trigger a deeper correction toward 79,500 - 79,700.
Outlook: The market is at an inflection point ahead of the RBI MPC outcome. A failure to hold this support is likely to lead to aggressive selling.
1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)
Structure: The 1H chart is strongly bearish, confined to a descending channel. The market is consolidating right at the 80,400 support, with the price action forming a tight range. This suggests indecision as the market awaits the major news event.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 80,800 (The recent swing high and short-term FVG).
Immediate Support: 80,200.
15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)
Structure: The 15M chart shows tight consolidation. Price action on Tuesday was mostly sideways, characterized by small wicks and overlapping candles. The presence of Sell-side Liquidity below the recent lows suggests the market may attempt to sweep this level before any move up.
Key Levels:
Intraday Supply: 80,600. This is the immediate consolidation resistance.
Intraday Demand: 80,200 - 80,300. The crucial support zone.
Outlook: Neutral, highly sensitive to the RBI announcement.
Trade Plan (Wednesday, 1st October)
Market Outlook: Extreme caution is advised due to the RBI MPC outcome at 10 AM IST. The market's move today will be largely event-driven. The plan should be reactive to the post-announcement volatility.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)
Justification: The continuation of the steep bearish trend, likely triggered by a hawkish pause from the RBI or a sustained move below the support.
Entry: Short entry on a decisive break and 15-minute candle close below 80,200.
Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 80,400.
Targets:
T1: 80,000 (Psychological support).
T2: 79,700 (Next major demand zone).
Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend/Reversal Plan)
Justification: A strong short-covering rally, possibly triggered by a "dovish pause" or a surprise rate cut from the RBI.
Trigger: A sustained move and close above the resistance at 80,800.
Entry: Long entry on a confirmed 15-minute close above 80,800.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 80,600.
Targets:
T1: 81,200 (Upper channel resistance).
T2: 81,600 (Major supply zone).
Key Levels for Observation:
Immediate Decision Point: The 80,200 - 80,800 zone.
Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 80,200.
Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 80,800 level.
Crucial Event: RBI MPC outcome at 10 AM IST. Trade small quantities or wait until the market absorbs the news.
Line in the Sand: 80,200. Below this, sellers are in control.
Detailed Market Structure Breakdown
4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)
Structure: The Sensex is in an accelerated corrective phase, trading within a steep descending channel. The price is positioned right on the strong macro demand zone of 80,200 - 80,400. This area is a key Bullish Order Block (OB) and the base of the previous significant rally. The recent candle shows a pullback, followed by consolidation at this level.
Key Levels:
Major Supply (Resistance): 81,000 - 81,200. This area is the key overhead resistance, aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel and a short-term FVG (Fair Value Gap).
Major Demand (Support): 80,200 - 80,400. This is the crucial "line in the sand." A sustained breakdown below 80,200 would trigger a deeper correction toward 79,500 - 79,700.
Outlook: The market is at an inflection point ahead of the RBI MPC outcome. A failure to hold this support is likely to lead to aggressive selling.
1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)
Structure: The 1H chart is strongly bearish, confined to a descending channel. The market is consolidating right at the 80,400 support, with the price action forming a tight range. This suggests indecision as the market awaits the major news event.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 80,800 (The recent swing high and short-term FVG).
Immediate Support: 80,200.
15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)
Structure: The 15M chart shows tight consolidation. Price action on Tuesday was mostly sideways, characterized by small wicks and overlapping candles. The presence of Sell-side Liquidity below the recent lows suggests the market may attempt to sweep this level before any move up.
Key Levels:
Intraday Supply: 80,600. This is the immediate consolidation resistance.
Intraday Demand: 80,200 - 80,300. The crucial support zone.
Outlook: Neutral, highly sensitive to the RBI announcement.
Trade Plan (Wednesday, 1st October)
Market Outlook: Extreme caution is advised due to the RBI MPC outcome at 10 AM IST. The market's move today will be largely event-driven. The plan should be reactive to the post-announcement volatility.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)
Justification: The continuation of the steep bearish trend, likely triggered by a hawkish pause from the RBI or a sustained move below the support.
Entry: Short entry on a decisive break and 15-minute candle close below 80,200.
Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 80,400.
Targets:
T1: 80,000 (Psychological support).
T2: 79,700 (Next major demand zone).
Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend/Reversal Plan)
Justification: A strong short-covering rally, possibly triggered by a "dovish pause" or a surprise rate cut from the RBI.
Trigger: A sustained move and close above the resistance at 80,800.
Entry: Long entry on a confirmed 15-minute close above 80,800.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 80,600.
Targets:
T1: 81,200 (Upper channel resistance).
T2: 81,600 (Major supply zone).
Key Levels for Observation:
Immediate Decision Point: The 80,200 - 80,800 zone.
Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 80,200.
Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 80,800 level.
Crucial Event: RBI MPC outcome at 10 AM IST. Trade small quantities or wait until the market absorbs the news.
Line in the Sand: 80,200. Below this, sellers are in control.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.