VIX/VIX3M: Tricks for Reading the VIX Part II
מעודכן
PRIMARY CHART: S&P 500 (SPX) with VIX/VIX3M ratio in subgraph on a weekly time frame
Tricks for Reading the VIX Part I
SquishTrade's original 2022 article on VIX entitled "Tricks for Reading the VIX" covered the basic concepts of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) to aid in understanding and interpreting VIX and its behavior relative to the S&P 500 (
SPX ). It also explained generally how VIX values are derived, reviewed a few historical examples, and identified the historical mean (20 VIX) as well as some outliers.
Furthermore, the original piece delved into the usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX. But in its later sections, it explained how divergences from this usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX may distinguish lasting market bottoms from interim trading lows. If interested, the following link provides the original article on VIX.
A couple of points from this original article on VIX may be beneficial to readers who are less familiar with VIX. VIX is a measure of implied volatility for SPX derived from the pricing of a wide range of options prices with approximately 30 days to expiration. Specifically, only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to expiration are included. CBOE introduced the VIX in 1993 to measure the options market's expectation of implied volatility from at-the-money SPX index options (where strikes of the options are at or very close to where the underlying index price is trading). But ten years later (2003), CBOE updated the VIX formula to track not only at-the-money options, but a wide range of SPX options focusing now on out-of-the-money strikes.
CBOE's website contains a helpful FAQ on VIX here. A relevant excerpt with more detail on how VIX is calculated is available in a footnote (FN 1) at the end of this post.
The last two concepts for this introduction are important. SPX implied volatility, which is what VIX is intended to measure, and realized volatility should be distinguished as they are not the same. And VIX index values tend toward mean-reversion in the long term rather than trending action. But trends within VIX can nevertheless be identified within the broader context of its mean-reverting character. SPY_Master has an excellent chart covering a recent VIX trend shown as Supplementary Chart A:
Supplementary Chart A
tradingview.com/x/TD6QqHDJ.
VIX/VIX3M: Tricks for Reading the VIX Part II
In this sequel to the original post, SquishTrade will cover the VIX/VIX3M ratio. To understand this ratio, it is important to understand basic concepts about VIX, its interpretation, and its inverse relationship as well as excepts to that relationship, which topics are covered in the prior article or elsewhere on trustworthy financial websites including CBOE's.
VIX3M Basics
Furthermore, VIX3M is vital to understanding the VIX/VIX3M ratio. VIX3M is essentially a 3-month forward implied volatility index for SPX. CBOE's brief description of VIX3M index follows:
"The Cboe 3-Month Volatility IndexSM (VIX3M) is designed to be a constant measure of 3-month implied volatility of the S&P 500® (SPX) Index options. (On September 18, 2017 the ticker symbol for the Cboe 3-Month Volatility Index was changed from “VXV” to “VIX3M”).The VIX3M Index has tended to be less volatile than the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX®), which measures one-month implied volatility. Using the VIX3M and VIX indexes together provides useful insight into the term structure of S&P 500 (SPX) option implied volatility."
The term-structure of implied volatility (IV) means the relationship, or comparison, between different implied-volatility measures based on different terms (time periods) for measuring implied volatility such as a one-month period, three-month period, six-month period, or one-year period. Term structure can be also understood by remembering that this term is used to describe the yield curve, varying interest rates on risk-free government bonds (same type of security) with different maturities ranging from short term to long term.
In short, the ratio of VIX/VIX3M allows insight into the shorter end of the IV term structure by allowing investors and traders to see both the 30-day (one-month) and the 90-day (three-month) outlook for expected volatility for SPX based on its index options premiums.
VIX and VIX3M Comparison
VIX3M and VIX can be distinguished based on the time frame as discussed in the prior paragraphs. One is a constant measure of approximately 30-day IV for SPX, and the other is a constant measure of approximately 3-month IV for SPX.
VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. The exception occurs at significant SPX lows, including interm trading lows both in bull-market retracements and in bear markets, and in more lasting bear-market lows.
VIX tends to be more volatile than VIX3M. This is true even though VIX3M tends to have slightly higher values.
The final point of comparison between VIX and VIX3M is that two indices are highly correlated as one might expect. This can be seen from placing them both on a chart together. Try placing them both on a chart together in TradingView, which may help some visualize and remember the close relationship between VIX and VIX3M by working with the symbols themselves. It's relatively easy to do in a couple steps. Load a chart of VIX. Then click the plus symbol next to the ticker symbol on the left upper corner of the TradingView chart screen, ad then add VIX3M to the chart. Be sure to click "New Price Scale" option when selecting VIX3M as the new symbol to be compared.
VIX/VIX3M Ratio Interpretation
The Primary Chart above shows the VIX/VIX3M ratio over the past six years of market history. This ratio is included in the subgraph below the SPX price chart. This chart uses a weekly time frame to ensure the data can be viewed over several years with ease. Notice how peaks in this ratio correlate to some extent with lows in SPX.
Interestingly, peaks were higher in the left half of the chart between 2018 and 2020. Peaks in the current bear market have been lower relative to prior peaks in this ratio. Many peaks have been labeled on the Primary Chart for ease of reference.
As discussed, VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. To understand the VIX/VIX3M ratio, it helps to focus on the exception to the general rule that VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. The exception occurs typically when an SPX selloff causes a spike higher in VIX relative to VIX3M.
Why does VIX spike higher on a relative basis, causing the ratio to rise above 1.00 / 1.10? When short-term panic occurs in markets around trading lows (or final lows as well), VIX outperforms VIX3M because VIX focuses on 30-day IV and VIX3M focuses on 90-day IV (longer-term on the IV term structure). This causes the term structure to invert briefly when VIX rises above VIX3M (which is the same as VIX3M trading at a discount to VIX).
When VIX spikes above VIX3M even briefly, it shows that the market expects IV farther out on the term structure at three months to be lower than current implied volatility levels. In plain English, this means the market expects volatility to fall in several months relative to current 30-day forward levels (based on SPX options prices 23 to 37 days until expiration). And when the IV term structure normalizes as it always does after an inversion, meaning that short-term vol is lower than longer-term vol generally, this means that VIX has to fall relative to VIX3M. And remember that when VIX falls, SPX rises given the usual inverse relationship between the two. Don't forget that exceptions to this usual inverse relationship occur when VIX and SPX move in tandem, and such aberrations in the normal VIX-SPX relationship are crucial to notice as discussed in the original 2022 article on VIX.
Finally, here is a chart showing a close-up view of the bear market starting in January 2022 with VIX/VIX3M shown simultaneously. The highs in this ratio were lower than prior highs at market lows over the prior decade or two. Highs have been approximately 1.05 to 1.11. Does this mean vol sellers are more opportunistic and effective? Or does it mean that we haven't seen a capitulatory low? Either way, it helps to see the current bear market levels. Enjoy!
Supplementary Chart B
Please see footnote 2 (FN 2) for this section on interpreting VIX/VIX3M.
FOOTNOTES
FN 1
Note that the formula is complicated and most likely accessible only to those still in higher-level math concentrations in their education, or those working continuously in a math field. The rest of us who have seen a few years pass since our math education must rely on the detailed verbal explanation of the formula. The formula, moreover, is unnecessary to reading and interpreting VIX values, trends, and mean reversion.
CBOE's FAQ on VIX, linked above, contains the following helpful and detailed information about how the VIX Index is calculated:
"Cboe Options Exchange® (Cboe Options®) calculates the VIX Index using standard SPX options and weekly SPX options that are listed for trading on Cboe Options. Standard SPX options expire on the third Friday of each month and weekly SPX options expire on all other Fridays. Only SPX options with Friday expirations are used to calculate the VIX Index.* Only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to the Friday SPX expiration are used to calculate the VIX Index. These SPX options are then weighted to yield a constant maturity 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index.
Cboe Options lists SPX options that expire on days other than Fridays. Non-Friday SPX expirations are not used to calculate the VIX Index.
Intraday VIX Index values are based on snapshots of SPX option bid/ask quotes every 15 seconds and are intended to provide an indication of the fair market price of expected volatility at particular points in time. As such, these VIX Index values are often referred to as "indicative" or "spot" values. Cboe Options currently calculates VIX Index spot values between 3:15 a.m. ET and 9:15 a.m. ET (Cboe GTH session), and between 9:30 a.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET (Cboe RTH session) according to the VIX Index formula that is set forth in the White Paper."
FN 2
The source for some of the key concepts in this section was a January 2018 article on CBOE's website blog on the VIX / Trader Talk, and the article referenced was "Vol 411 Follow Up: More on the VIX3M / VIX Ratio." This article appears to no longer be available.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Thank you for reading. If this post added clarity or prompted additional thoughts on the technicals of SPY, please comment below!
Tricks for Reading the VIX Part I
SquishTrade's original 2022 article on VIX entitled "Tricks for Reading the VIX" covered the basic concepts of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) to aid in understanding and interpreting VIX and its behavior relative to the S&P 500 (
SPX ). It also explained generally how VIX values are derived, reviewed a few historical examples, and identified the historical mean (20 VIX) as well as some outliers. Furthermore, the original piece delved into the usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX. But in its later sections, it explained how divergences from this usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX may distinguish lasting market bottoms from interim trading lows. If interested, the following link provides the original article on VIX.
A couple of points from this original article on VIX may be beneficial to readers who are less familiar with VIX. VIX is a measure of implied volatility for SPX derived from the pricing of a wide range of options prices with approximately 30 days to expiration. Specifically, only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to expiration are included. CBOE introduced the VIX in 1993 to measure the options market's expectation of implied volatility from at-the-money SPX index options (where strikes of the options are at or very close to where the underlying index price is trading). But ten years later (2003), CBOE updated the VIX formula to track not only at-the-money options, but a wide range of SPX options focusing now on out-of-the-money strikes.
CBOE's website contains a helpful FAQ on VIX here. A relevant excerpt with more detail on how VIX is calculated is available in a footnote (FN 1) at the end of this post.
The last two concepts for this introduction are important. SPX implied volatility, which is what VIX is intended to measure, and realized volatility should be distinguished as they are not the same. And VIX index values tend toward mean-reversion in the long term rather than trending action. But trends within VIX can nevertheless be identified within the broader context of its mean-reverting character. SPY_Master has an excellent chart covering a recent VIX trend shown as Supplementary Chart A:
Supplementary Chart A
tradingview.com/x/TD6QqHDJ.
VIX/VIX3M: Tricks for Reading the VIX Part II
In this sequel to the original post, SquishTrade will cover the VIX/VIX3M ratio. To understand this ratio, it is important to understand basic concepts about VIX, its interpretation, and its inverse relationship as well as excepts to that relationship, which topics are covered in the prior article or elsewhere on trustworthy financial websites including CBOE's.
VIX3M Basics
Furthermore, VIX3M is vital to understanding the VIX/VIX3M ratio. VIX3M is essentially a 3-month forward implied volatility index for SPX. CBOE's brief description of VIX3M index follows:
"The Cboe 3-Month Volatility IndexSM (VIX3M) is designed to be a constant measure of 3-month implied volatility of the S&P 500® (SPX) Index options. (On September 18, 2017 the ticker symbol for the Cboe 3-Month Volatility Index was changed from “VXV” to “VIX3M”).The VIX3M Index has tended to be less volatile than the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX®), which measures one-month implied volatility. Using the VIX3M and VIX indexes together provides useful insight into the term structure of S&P 500 (SPX) option implied volatility."
The term-structure of implied volatility (IV) means the relationship, or comparison, between different implied-volatility measures based on different terms (time periods) for measuring implied volatility such as a one-month period, three-month period, six-month period, or one-year period. Term structure can be also understood by remembering that this term is used to describe the yield curve, varying interest rates on risk-free government bonds (same type of security) with different maturities ranging from short term to long term.
In short, the ratio of VIX/VIX3M allows insight into the shorter end of the IV term structure by allowing investors and traders to see both the 30-day (one-month) and the 90-day (three-month) outlook for expected volatility for SPX based on its index options premiums.
VIX and VIX3M Comparison
VIX3M and VIX can be distinguished based on the time frame as discussed in the prior paragraphs. One is a constant measure of approximately 30-day IV for SPX, and the other is a constant measure of approximately 3-month IV for SPX.
VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. The exception occurs at significant SPX lows, including interm trading lows both in bull-market retracements and in bear markets, and in more lasting bear-market lows.
VIX tends to be more volatile than VIX3M. This is true even though VIX3M tends to have slightly higher values.
The final point of comparison between VIX and VIX3M is that two indices are highly correlated as one might expect. This can be seen from placing them both on a chart together. Try placing them both on a chart together in TradingView, which may help some visualize and remember the close relationship between VIX and VIX3M by working with the symbols themselves. It's relatively easy to do in a couple steps. Load a chart of VIX. Then click the plus symbol next to the ticker symbol on the left upper corner of the TradingView chart screen, ad then add VIX3M to the chart. Be sure to click "New Price Scale" option when selecting VIX3M as the new symbol to be compared.
VIX/VIX3M Ratio Interpretation
The Primary Chart above shows the VIX/VIX3M ratio over the past six years of market history. This ratio is included in the subgraph below the SPX price chart. This chart uses a weekly time frame to ensure the data can be viewed over several years with ease. Notice how peaks in this ratio correlate to some extent with lows in SPX.
Interestingly, peaks were higher in the left half of the chart between 2018 and 2020. Peaks in the current bear market have been lower relative to prior peaks in this ratio. Many peaks have been labeled on the Primary Chart for ease of reference.
As discussed, VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. To understand the VIX/VIX3M ratio, it helps to focus on the exception to the general rule that VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. The exception occurs typically when an SPX selloff causes a spike higher in VIX relative to VIX3M.
Why does VIX spike higher on a relative basis, causing the ratio to rise above 1.00 / 1.10? When short-term panic occurs in markets around trading lows (or final lows as well), VIX outperforms VIX3M because VIX focuses on 30-day IV and VIX3M focuses on 90-day IV (longer-term on the IV term structure). This causes the term structure to invert briefly when VIX rises above VIX3M (which is the same as VIX3M trading at a discount to VIX).
When VIX spikes above VIX3M even briefly, it shows that the market expects IV farther out on the term structure at three months to be lower than current implied volatility levels. In plain English, this means the market expects volatility to fall in several months relative to current 30-day forward levels (based on SPX options prices 23 to 37 days until expiration). And when the IV term structure normalizes as it always does after an inversion, meaning that short-term vol is lower than longer-term vol generally, this means that VIX has to fall relative to VIX3M. And remember that when VIX falls, SPX rises given the usual inverse relationship between the two. Don't forget that exceptions to this usual inverse relationship occur when VIX and SPX move in tandem, and such aberrations in the normal VIX-SPX relationship are crucial to notice as discussed in the original 2022 article on VIX.
Finally, here is a chart showing a close-up view of the bear market starting in January 2022 with VIX/VIX3M shown simultaneously. The highs in this ratio were lower than prior highs at market lows over the prior decade or two. Highs have been approximately 1.05 to 1.11. Does this mean vol sellers are more opportunistic and effective? Or does it mean that we haven't seen a capitulatory low? Either way, it helps to see the current bear market levels. Enjoy!
Supplementary Chart B
Please see footnote 2 (FN 2) for this section on interpreting VIX/VIX3M.
FOOTNOTES
FN 1
Note that the formula is complicated and most likely accessible only to those still in higher-level math concentrations in their education, or those working continuously in a math field. The rest of us who have seen a few years pass since our math education must rely on the detailed verbal explanation of the formula. The formula, moreover, is unnecessary to reading and interpreting VIX values, trends, and mean reversion.
CBOE's FAQ on VIX, linked above, contains the following helpful and detailed information about how the VIX Index is calculated:
"Cboe Options Exchange® (Cboe Options®) calculates the VIX Index using standard SPX options and weekly SPX options that are listed for trading on Cboe Options. Standard SPX options expire on the third Friday of each month and weekly SPX options expire on all other Fridays. Only SPX options with Friday expirations are used to calculate the VIX Index.* Only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to the Friday SPX expiration are used to calculate the VIX Index. These SPX options are then weighted to yield a constant maturity 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index.
Cboe Options lists SPX options that expire on days other than Fridays. Non-Friday SPX expirations are not used to calculate the VIX Index.
Intraday VIX Index values are based on snapshots of SPX option bid/ask quotes every 15 seconds and are intended to provide an indication of the fair market price of expected volatility at particular points in time. As such, these VIX Index values are often referred to as "indicative" or "spot" values. Cboe Options currently calculates VIX Index spot values between 3:15 a.m. ET and 9:15 a.m. ET (Cboe GTH session), and between 9:30 a.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET (Cboe RTH session) according to the VIX Index formula that is set forth in the White Paper."
FN 2
The source for some of the key concepts in this section was a January 2018 article on CBOE's website blog on the VIX / Trader Talk, and the article referenced was "Vol 411 Follow Up: More on the VIX3M / VIX Ratio." This article appears to no longer be available.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Thank you for reading. If this post added clarity or prompted additional thoughts on the technicals of SPY, please comment below!
הערה
spy_master raised a very good point in the comments about the term backwardation. First, backwardation and contango are technically terms used in the futures context, and this article represents indices. Nevertheless, the concept is the same. When near term vol rises above longer term vol, this is inversion of the normal term structure, and it's called backwardation. The futures curve for VIX becomes "backwardated" or "in backwardation" when when near term contracts rise above longer term contracts. This illustration provided by spy_master in the comments is instructive:
Note VX refers to a Vix futures contract.
So when VIX rises above VIX3M (so that the ratio VIX/VIX3M rises above 1.0), this is analogous to at least a portion of the futures curve being in backwardation.
One key point here is that an inversion in VIX and VIX3M represented by VIX/VIX3M rising above 1.0 does not necessarily mean the entire VX futures curve is in backwardation. This still provides valuable information. In a bull market, a brief pop above 1.10 or 1.20 might signal a near term end to a pullback—which is signaled without the need for a full VX futures curve inversion / backwardation.
But the lack of a backwardation in the entire curve is also instructive, and this is something that would require watching the VX futures curve. Please be sure to check out SPY's comments below about the lack of full backwardation at the October 2022 low, which is something that you may find important to ponder!
Thanks to SPY for the post-hoc collaboration in the comments! Any other commentary, debate or disagreement is welcome as always (provided it's civil)
הערה
This week has seen a swift increase in volatility coinciding with the sharp downward move in SPX / SPY and equities in general.To illustrate how short-dated vol rises much quicker and higher than longer-dated vol, notice the following performance comparisons for different vol-term lengths. Note that the comparison shows the percentage move off the recent mid-April vol lows in each vol index. The vol lows didn't necessarily land on the same day, though they were all in mid-April generally.
1. VIX9D rose 57.6% off mid-April lows
2. VIX rose +22.82% off mid-April lows
3. VIX3M rose +14.12% off 4/18/23 lows
4. VIX6M rose +11.76% off 4/18/23 lows.
Those buying shorter vol tend to see a much bigger move in options premiums. Shorter dated vol may mean (in this context) shorter-term VX futures or shorter-dated VIX options or it may mean short-dated SPX or NDX puts that have much higher risk for example. This bigger move is not without higher risk that always comes with shorter-dated options, which have exploded in recent months and years, rising to nearly 40-50% of total options volume on major indices per options-hedging flows experts.
הערה
Yesterday, VIX hit 1.4 year lows. The lows in VIX had not been seen at this level since November 2021. VIX also showed positive divergence using momentum indicators—in other words, as values made lower lows, momentum made higher lows (RSI in particular). Assuming TA can be applied to such a mean-reverting index, it's unsurprising to see a push higher in VIX today.הערה
VIX has been making 1.5 year lows since April this year. So it's no surprise that this ratio of VIX/VIX3M is as well. VIX/VIX3M, discussed in this educational post, is this week pushing back toward major 1.5-year support
■ shows steep contango in this segment of VIX term structure
■shows potential complacency in short-term, which *could* coincide with short to intermediate term peaks in SPX and lows in vol. Let's see what happens.
And here is a chart by GammaLab, one of SquishTrade's favorite follows. This chart shows a comparison of both 1-month realized vol and 1-month IV. And it goes back far enough to shows trends in both implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV).
Notice how RV (green) fell hard into new lows in April 2023 reflecting SPX's choppy, tight sideways price range that lasted nearly 1.5 months from the start of April to mid-May 2023.
With the big move up in SPX from early June 2023, with SPX 4448 new YTD highs last week, realized vol has risen, and IV along with it. Other analysts and technicians have been noting that the "vol up / spot up" phenomenon was starting to be seen in fixed strike vol last week. Will this upward curve at the right-hand side of the chart continue? There are reasons to think it could at least in the near term.
Opinion Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this update are solely those of SquishTrade and do not reflect the views or opinions of GammaLab, the source of the second chart shown in this update.
SquishTrade
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