The bears are crashing the market in absence of any bad macro chart situations which previously dragged the S&P 500 down. China has spend billions to get a bottom into the Chinese market (1) before the Chinese New Year, but the EU and US markets don't care anymore and seem to want doom as soon as possible now. This can cause China to break the bottom next week which is going to be VERY ugly if it happens. Because the market had just found mathematical equilibrium and the next support area is far away (unless it stabilizes on the 200 week SMA).
The oil price has also found a bottom even above $25. But if the oil market also start to resume the downtrend all my bets are off how low this market is going to fall. It's below the 17 year trend already and would need a lot of new momentum to stabilize again if it falls below the recent January 2016 low.
And the only part of the market which previously held the US market from collapsing were tech stocks. But those are now also sold off like penny stocks. Recent examples are the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google).
So I give up on my previous idea that the S&P 500 doesn't fall below the January 2016 low. And instead I see it simply continue the downtrend direction which I first posted seven months ago. (3)
For the bulls: The market is still inside a large uptrend and a trend change is due by the end of February 2016, but as mentioned before I fear it won't happen with the storm which is starting to grow. (4) (5)
Next support is around 1600 points. Actual support is around 1200 points. So this bear market has lots of room to continue downwards the entire year 2016, unless central banks come up with some very creative ideas to make everything even worse again in hindsight.
Short entry: 1850 (ideally higher ...)
First target: 1700
Second target: 1600
Third target: 1200
(1)
(2) www.tradingview.com/...17-is-25-per-barrel/
(3)
(4)
P:S. You can find more of my recent bearish charts below in "related ideas":
The oil price has also found a bottom even above $25. But if the oil market also start to resume the downtrend all my bets are off how low this market is going to fall. It's below the 17 year trend already and would need a lot of new momentum to stabilize again if it falls below the recent January 2016 low.
And the only part of the market which previously held the US market from collapsing were tech stocks. But those are now also sold off like penny stocks. Recent examples are the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google).
So I give up on my previous idea that the S&P 500 doesn't fall below the January 2016 low. And instead I see it simply continue the downtrend direction which I first posted seven months ago. (3)
For the bulls: The market is still inside a large uptrend and a trend change is due by the end of February 2016, but as mentioned before I fear it won't happen with the storm which is starting to grow. (4) (5)
Next support is around 1600 points. Actual support is around 1200 points. So this bear market has lots of room to continue downwards the entire year 2016, unless central banks come up with some very creative ideas to make everything even worse again in hindsight.
Short entry: 1850 (ideally higher ...)
First target: 1700
Second target: 1600
Third target: 1200
(1)
(3)
P:S. You can find more of my recent bearish charts below in "related ideas":
But before the spot market closed oil bounced because of important fundamental news (speculation) and pushed the market off the lows. Therefore the classic S1 is now support. I posted a new neutral chart because of this: